Post on 30-Mar-2015
NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service’s (NMFS)Biological and Conference Opinion on the Long-Term Operations of the Central Valley Project and State
Water Project
National Research Council Committee on Sustainable Water and Environmental Management in the
California Bay-DeltaJanuary 25, 2010
2
Status of Species
ESU Status
Sacramento River winter-run Chinook salmon
Endangered (Jan 1994)
Central Valley spring-run Chinook salmon
Threatened (Sep 1999)
Central Valley fall-run Chinook salmon
Candidate (Sep 1999)
Central Valley steelhead Threatened (Mar 1998)
Southern DPS green sturgeon
Threatened (Apr 2006)
Southern Resident killer whale
Endangered (Nov 2005)
3
Central Valley Salmon Population Over Time
4
Salmon Population Viability
ABUNDANCE
POP GROWTH RATE
DIVERSITY SPATIALSTRUCTURE
HABITAT CAPACITY AND DIVERSITY
FreshwaterEstuarineMarine
5
Central Valley Spring Chinook
ESU Structure
6
Central Valley SteelheadESU Structure
7
Viability Criteria for Populations
8
Viability Criteria for ESUs
At least two viable populations per diversity group
If possible, the populations should not have highly correlated risks of catastrophic disturbance
9
Current Status
of CV
Spring-
Run Chinoo
k salmon
10
Climate Change
11
Effects of Water Projects on Salmon
12
Effect of Habitat Modification
s
13
Institutional Challenges
14
Summary Central Valley Salmonid ESUs are
threatened with extinction Water project facilities and operations
have negative effects on fish habitat, with cascading effects on spatial structure, diversity, productivity, and abundance of populations
Improving in-stream flows and curtailing exports is necessary to conserve salmon, but will not be sufficient for recovery
An ecosystem perspective is needed to understand how human activities impact salmon
Adaptive management is needed to reduce risks
15
Scope of today’s presentation
Brief highlights of Opinion – not all topics presented due to time constraints
Opinion itself is a summary document of over four years of analytic work between 5 agencies
Biological assessment, NMFS technical memos, peer review reports are important
700+ scientific citations Administrative record is 150,000 pages
- - documents full decision-making process
16
Approach to Biological Opinion:
Challenges Complexity - geographic scope Multi-species State and federal project – combined
operations Number of dams and diversions Economic importance of project
Urban water supply, agricultural water supply, commercial salmon fishery
Long-term proposed operations (21 years) Litigation history Current events (recession, drought,
fishery closure)
17
Approach to Biological Opinion: Constraints
Our task – Limited to analyzing the Federal action, as proposed
Uncertainty in science; risk is balanced in favor of the species
Reasonable and Prudent Alternative (RPA) – Limited to actions within authority and
discretion of USBR and DWR Minimum to avoid jeopardy; NOT a
recovery plan Must avoid jeopardy in short-term and
long-term Not necessary to prove quantitatively
18
Consultation Process
Used a team of experienced federal biologists and hydrologists.
Adhered closely to legal requirements, agency guidelines, and used the best available scientific and commercial information
Maintained close and meaningful collaboration with the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, CA Department of Water Resources, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, and CA Department of Fish and Game
Draft opinion peer reviewed by CALFED Independent Science Panel and Center for Independent Experts (CIE)
19
Scientific Evidence
Used best scientific and commercial information
Literature review - 700 citations Information from previous listing
decisions, critical habitat rules, etc. USBR’s Biological Assessment,
including model outputs Draft recovery plan Monitoring reports
20
Consultation Background NMFS OCAP biological opinions:
Feb. 14, 1992, limited to winter-run Chinook salmon
1993-2002, interim opinions issued due to changes in operations and new species listed
October 22, 2004: In 2008, Federal court invalidated that Opinion, and ordered that NMFS prepare a new Opinion.
June 4, 2009: Six complaints filed to date.
Close coordination with the USFWS throughout the OCAP consultation process
21
Peer Reviews of theDraft Biological Opinion
CALFED Science Panel: James J. Anderson, University of
Washington & Columbia Basin Research
Mike Deas, Watercourse Engineering, Inc.
Philip B. Duffy, Climate Central, Inc.; University of California, Merced
Daniel L. Erickson, Consultant Reg Reisenbichler, Retired--U.S.
Geological Survey (USGS) Kenneth A. Rose, Louisiana State
University Peter E. Smith, Retired--USGS
CIE reviewers: Richard A.
Marston Ian A. Fleming E. Eric Knudsen
CALFED & CIE reviews supported NMFS overall conclusions
22
Peer Reviews of the Draft Biological Opinion
(cont’d) Significant changes made in
response to peer review recommendations: Editing for clarity and consistency
between division analyses Estimate ranges of loss from
compilation of existing studies, even when we did not have complete data sets
Assessed risk based on weighting and key lines of evidence
Plan for drought sequence – not a single dry year
23
Analytical Overview Evaluated each stressor by species, life
stage, and location Risk and uncertainty incorporated
throughout Weighted evidence by certainty and
magnitude of effect Stated assumptions, reviewed model
constraints and applicability, used ranges Identified all direct and indirect effects
Considered variability in the Bay-Delta ecosystem
Summed for individual, population, diversity group and species levels.
24
Analytical Approach Viable Salmonid Populations
ABUNDANCE
POP GROWTH RATE
DIVERSITY SPATIALSTRUCTURE
HABITAT CAPACITY AND DIVERSITY
FreshwaterEstuarineMarine
25
Analytical Approach (cont’d)
Central Valley Technical Recovery Team products:Historical population structure
Assessing viability of Central Valley salmon and steelhead populations
Life cycle approach
26
Stressors on Listed Species Loss of habitat and degraded water
quality due to: Non-Federal dams and diversions Land use activities
Invasive species Hatcheries Harvest activities Environmental variations
Ocean conditions Climate change
27
Environmental Baseline
28
Effects Overview Shasta Reservoir: Future operations,
including climate change: 5 to 65% mortality of winter-run Chinook
salmon eggs and fry Red Bluff Diversion Dam (RBDD):
Delays adult passage of up to 15% of the winter-run and up to 70% of the spring-run that spawn above the RBDD
Blocks up to 35% of green sturgeon from its only known spawning ground
American River: Mean water temperatures > 65°F, results in
increased incidence of disease in juvenile steelhead
~75% of time in June, 100% in July and August, >95% in September
29
Effects Overview (cont’d) Juvenile survival at export facilities:
About 1 in 3 survive through the Federal facilities
About 1 in 6 survive through the State facilities
Overall mortality in the interior Delta: 35-90% of those that enter interior
Delta 5-20% of each winter-run Chinook
salmon population Juvenile San Joaquin River steelhead:
90-99% mortality from project and non-project stressors
Reduction in approximately 13-15% fall- and late fall-run Chinook salmon, which is killer whale prey; effects from hatchery management.
30
Findings of the Biological Opinion
OCAP would likely jeopardize: Sacramento winter-run Chinook salmon Central Valley spring-run Chinook
salmon Central Valley steelhead Southern DPS of North American green
sturgeon Southern Resident killer whales
Destruction or adverse modification of designated and proposed critical habitat
Central California Coast steelhead – not likely to adversely affect this species or its critical habitat
31
Reasonable and Prudent Alternative (RPA) Overview
Identified actions to alleviate major stressors for each species and summed these for short-term and long-term
Included appropriate flexibilities in RPA where possible
Monitoring, reporting, research, adaptive management
32
RPA Overview (cont’d) Scope – minimum to avoid jeopardy
Over 50 individual actions grouped by division, plus a fish passage program
Themes: Water quantity and quality gravel augmentation improve passage decrease entrainment engineered solutions
33
Key Elements of the RPA Clear Creek below Whiskeytown
Dam - increased flows and reduced temperatures
Shasta Reservoir and the Upper Sacramento River - new temperature management program
Shasta Dam - long-term passage prescriptions to allow re-introduction of listed salmon
Red Bluff Diversion Dam - interim gate operations until 2012, then gates up all year.
Lower Sacramento River basin and Delta - improved juvenile rearing habitat
34
Key Elements of the RPA (cont’d)
American River - New flow and temperature plan; fish passage at Folsom Dam Hatchery Genetics Management
Plan for Nimbus Hatchery for steelhead and fall-run Chinook salmon.
Stanislaus River – new flow schedule, temperature criteria, and habitat improvements
Delta Cross Channel Gates - Additional gate closures during key times when listed fish are likely to be migrating through the area
35
Key Elements of the RPA (cont’d)
Old and Middle Rivers - Flows will be modified to reduce the number of juveniles exposed to the Delta pumps, and fish salvage improvements to reduce mortality
San Joaquin Basin - Increased flows and pumping curtailments.
Studies – 6 year study of acoustic tagged fish in the San Joaquin Basin to evaluate the effectiveness of the RPA and refine it over the life-time of the project.
36
RPA Flexibilities
Real-time operations Phased-in implementation Performance-based approaches Take limits based on annual juvenile
production estimates Actions tiered to water year
type/drought exception Research and adaptive management
37
Other Alternative RPA Actions
Evaluated during consultation and rejected (ineffective, critical habitat concerns, smelt concerns, predation issues, etc): Trap and haul of San Joaquin steelhead New screens at the existing pumps New screens in the Delta (e.g., Georgiana
Slough) Permanent operable barriers at Head of
Old River Non-physical barrier alone at the Head of
Old River (without increased flows and export curtailments)
38
Alternatives (continued)Alternatives to water supply
evaluated and included in RPA: Gravel augmentation Rearing habitat restoration Engineered solutions, including:
New fish screen at Red BluffNew temperature infrastructure
at Whiskeytown and Folsom Dams
Retrofits to existing salvage facilities
Non-physical barrier (bubble curtain)
Sacramento River Division
Bruce Oppenheim
40
Shasta Dam and Reservoir
41
Carry over Storage in Shasta
Long-term Average Annual and End of September Storage Differences for Shasta Storage, Spring
Creek Tunnel Flow, and Keswick Release
Difference in Thousands of Acre-feet [TAF]
Study 7.0 -
Study 6.0
Study 7.1 -
Study 7.0
Study 8.0 -
Study 7.0
Study 8.0 -
Study 7.1
Shasta End-of-September Storage
26 -121 -121 0
Annual Keswick Release 1 8 6 -2
Annual Spring Creek Powerplant Flows
3 -1 -2 -2
Study 6.0 = 2004 operations Study 7.1 = near future operationsStudy 7.0 =current operations Study 8.0 = future operations
42
Calsim and Sacramento River Water Quality Modeling results for temperature exceedances at
Balls Ferry under future conditions Study 8.0
38
40
42
44
46
48
50
52
54
56
58
60
62
64
66
68
70
72
74
76
1/1 1/22 2/12 3/5 3/26 4/16 5/7 5/28 6/18 7/9 7/30 8/20 9/10 10/1 10/22 11/12 12/3 12/24
Me
an
Da
ily
Te
mp
era
ture
(F
)
Avg
Max
5%
10%
25%
50%
75%
90%
95%
Min
Date (month/day)
43
Egg and Fry Mortality by Water Year Type at Balls Ferry
Sacramento River Winter-Run Chinook Salmon Mortality
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
Average Wet Above Normal Below Normal Dry Critical
40-30-30 Water Year Type
Perc
en
t M
ort
ali
ty
Study 6.0 Study 7.0 Study 7.1 Study 8.0 NA NAStudy 6.0(2004)
Study 7.0(current)
Study 7.1(near future)
Study 8.0(future)
Water Year Type
Perc
en
t M
ort
ality
44
Temperature effects with Climate Change
Sacramento River Winter-Run Chinook Salmon Mortality
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Average Wet AboveNormal
Below Normal Dry Critical
40-30-30 Water Year Type
Per
cen
t M
ort
alit
y
Study 9.0 Base Study 9.1 Base w ith 1' Sea Level Rise
Study 9.4 Dryer, Less Warming Study 9.2 Wetter, Less Warming
Study 9.5 Drier, More Warming Study 9.3 Wetter, More Warming
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Average Wet AboveNormal
Below Normal Dry Critical
Study 9.0 Base Study 9.1 Base w ith 1' Sea Level Rise
Study 9.4 Dryer, Less Warming Study 9.2 Wetter, Less Warming
Study 9.5 Drier, More Warming Study 9.3 Wetter, More Warming
45
Sacramento River Spring-Run Chinook Salmon Mortality
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Average Wet Above Normal Below Normal Dry Critical
40-30-30 Water Year Type
Per
cen
t M
ort
alit
y
Study 6.0 Study 7.0 Study 7.1 Study 8.0 NA NA
Perc
en
t M
ort
ality
Water Year Type
Study 6.0(2004)
Study 7.0(current)
Study 7.1(near future)
Study 8.0(future)
46
Sacramento River Spring-Run Chinook Salmon Mortality
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Average Wet AboveNormal
Below Normal Dry Critical
40-30-30 Water Year Type
Per
cen
t M
ort
alit
y
Study 9.0 Base Study 9.1 Base w ith 1' Sea Level Rise
Study 9.4 Dryer, Less Warming Study 9.2 Wetter, Less Warming
Study 9.5 Drier, More Warming Study 9.3 Wetter, More Warming
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Average Wet AboveNormal
Below Normal Dry Critical
Study 9.0 Base Study 9.1 Base w ith 1' Sea Level Rise
Study 9.4 Dryer, Less Warming Study 9.2 Wetter, Less Warming
Study 9.5 Drier, More Warming Study 9.3 Wetter, More Warming
Water Year Type
Perc
en
t M
ort
ality
47
Summary of Significant Effects on the Mainstem Sacramento
River Long-term average loss of 121 TAF
September carry-over storage (including effects of climate change) will: Eliminate spring-run spawning in the
mainstem Reduce winter-run spawning habitat in the
mainstem Increase egg mortality substantially in
consideration of climate change [i.e., Critical years increases to 5 to 65% for winter-run, 40 to 95% for spring-run (Sac. R mainstem only), and 4% for steelhead (based on late fall-run Chinook salmon as a surrogate)].
Result in shorter emigration period and lower survival for juvenile salmonids
48
Red Bluff Diversion Dam (RBDD)
Gates in Open Position Looking Upstream
49
RBDD Adult Fish Passage
0
10
20
30
40
50
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Perc
ent o
f Run
Pre
sent
Winter-run Spring-run Steelhead
Green Sturgeon Fall-run Late -fall
4 months closed
2 months closed
50
RBDD Juvenile RunTiming
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Per
cent
Pre
sent
winter-run spring-run steelhead green sturgeon
4 Months Closed
RBDD Juvenile RunTiming
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Per
cent
Pre
sent
winter-run spring-run steelhead green sturgeon
4 Months Closed
51
Effect of Operations on Winter-Run Chinook
Salmon
52
Summary of the Main Effects from Operating
RBDD Adult upstream migration:
Delays passage of up to 15% of the winter-run and up to 70% of the spring-run
Blocks up to 35% of green sturgeon from its main spawning ground.
Juvenile downstream migration: Higher predation rates on juvenile winter-run,
steelhead, and green sturgeon as they pass through Lake Red Bluff and the diversion gates (i.e., 45% to 50% during May).
Critical habitat: Adverse modification of 6 stream miles from inundation behind RBDD.
53
RPA Actions to Address Key Sacramento River Division
Effects Clear Creek: New temperature curtain in
Whiskeytown Reduce temperatures in October
Shasta Reservoir: Higher Shasta storage required in Sept. & April
Shasta Dam: New temperature management program
Upper Sacramento River: Long-term passage prescriptions at Shasta
Dam to allow re-introduction of listed salmon RBDD gates up, year round by 2012
Lower Sacramento River and Delta: Restore juvenile rearing habitat
American River Division
55
Lower American River (LAR)
56
Jun
60.0
62.0
64.0
66.0
68.0
70.0
72.0
74.0
76.0
78.0
80.0
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%
Tem
per
atu
re (
˚F)
Study 6.0 Study 7.0 Study 7.1 Study 8.0 NA
65.0
Jul
60.0
62.0
64.0
66.0
68.0
70.0
72.0
74.0
76.0
78.0
80.0
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%
Tem
per
atu
re (
˚F)
Study 6.0 Study 7.0 Study 7.1 Study 8.0 NA
65.0
a
b
June
July
Exposure to daily mean water temps. above 65°F are associated with anal vent inflammation in juvenile steelhead in the LAR
57
Aug
60.0
62.0
64.0
66.0
68.0
70.0
72.0
74.0
76.0
78.0
80.0
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%
Tem
per
atu
re (
˚F)
Study 6.0 Study 7.0 Study 7.1 Study 8.0 NA
65.0
a
Sep
60.0
62.0
64.0
66.0
68.0
70.0
72.0
74.0
76.0
78.0
80.0
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%
Tem
per
atu
re (
˚F)
Study 6.0 Study 7.0 Study 7.1 Study 8.0 NA
65.0
b
August
September
58
“VSP” = Viable Salmonid Population
Flow fluctuations
Redd scour
Nimbus hatchery
Warm water temps
Entrainment
Angling impacts
Low flows
Folsom and Nimbus Dams
Predation
Project Stressors Baseline Stressors
Loss of natural river function
59
Summary of Main Effects on the Lower American
River Mean water temperatures above
65°F ~75% in June, 100% in July and August, >95% in September, resulting in increased incidence of disease in juvenile steelhead.
Reduced genetic diversity from hatchery management program.
60
RPA Actions to Address Key American River Division
Effects New flow and temperature plan; fish
passage at Folsom Dam Structural modifications for
Improved water temperature control device at Folsom Dam
Temperature control curtains at Lake Natoma
Temperature control at El Dorado Irrigation District Diversion
Hatchery Genetics Management Plan for Nimbus Hatchery for steelhead and Fall-run Chinook salmon.
Eastside Division
New Melones and Stanislaus River operations
Rhonda Reed
62
63
Stanislaus River – New Melones Dam
Listed Species: Central Valley steelhead
Southern Sierra Nevada diversity group
Current population numbers very low for all 4 populations
Stanislaus Tuolumne
Merced
64
Summary of the Main Effects on the Stanislaus
River Temperature
Water temperatures too warm for CV steelhead, 3-20% of time , especially May-Sept.
Jul
50
52
54
56
58
60
62
64
66
68
70
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%
Tem
pera
ture
(˚F
)
Study 6.0 Study 7.0 Study 7.1 Study 8.0 NA
65
Summary of the Main Effects on the Stanislaus
River Temperature Flow
Instream flow requirements for CV steelhead not addressed
66
Impaired Flow Pattern Affects Habitat
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/1 11/1 12/1 1/1
CF
S
Unimpaired
Impaired
67
Summary of the Main Effects on the Stanislaus
River Temperature Flow Ongoing critical habitat degradation
Channel incision cuts off rearing habitat Spawning gravel washed out Channel encroachment.
68
Modeled Monthly Temperature Exceedance Probability:July- Orange
Blossom Bridge
Daily Temperature
Variability
Jul
50
52
54
56
58
60
62
64
66
68
70
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%
Tem
per
atu
re (
˚F)
Study 6.0 Study 7.0 Study 7.1 Study 8.0 NA
69
Stanislaus River Minimum Steelhead Flows
Stanislaus River Minimum Steelhead Flows
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
10
/1
10
/11
10
/21
10
/31
11
/10
11
/20
11
/30
12
/10
12
/20
12
/30
1/9
1/1
9
1/2
9
2/8
2/1
8
2/2
8
3/1
0
3/2
0
3/3
0
4/9
4/1
9
4/2
9
5/9
5/1
9
5/2
9
6/8
6/1
8
6/2
8
7/8
7/1
8
7/2
8
8/7
8/1
7
8/2
7
9/6
9/1
6
9/2
6
Date
CF
S a
t G
oo
dw
in D
am
CD
Dry
BN
AN
Wet
Fall Attraction Flow
Spring Outmigration Cues Flow
Outmigration Flow
70
Above Normal Releases vs Minimum Flow Schedule
Stanislaus River Minimum Steelhead Flows Compared to Above Normal Year Operation
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
10
/1
10
/12
10
/23
11
/3
11
/14
11
/25
12
/6
12
/17
12
/28
1/8
1/1
9
1/3
0
2/1
0
2/2
1
3/4
3/1
5
3/2
6
4/6
4/1
7
4/2
8
5/9
5/2
0
5/3
1
6/1
1
6/2
2
7/3
7/1
4
7/2
5
8/5
8/1
6
8/2
7
9/7
9/1
8
9/2
9
Date
CF
S a
t G
oo
dw
in D
am
CD
Dry
BN
AN
Wet
1999 AN
71
Channel Demobilization
Kondolf, et al. 2001
72
RPA Actions to Address Key
East Side Division Effects Establish Stanislaus Operations
Group Set operational temperature criteria Set minimum flows for steelhead
survival Channel maintaining flows in wet
years Habitat improvements for spawning
and rearing habitat, building on Central Valley Project Improvement Act authorities
Assess fish passage past New Melones Dam
Delta Division
Jeff Stuart
Key Elements in Delta
Division Climate ChangeDCC GatesProposed Export ChangesDirect Entrainment at Project FacilitiesIndirect Mortality within DeltaSan Joaquin River Inflow to Delta
75
Temporal Occurrence of Species in Delta
76
Climate Change Impacts to Delta:
Fall and winter seasons have greatest sensitivity to climate change according to OCAP modeling.
Drier climates: In wet years: > risk of pumping entrainment in
winter compared to current climate. In dry years: minimal change in OMR flows
during winter and spring.
Wetter climates: In wet years: < pumping entrainment risk in
winter, more positive OMR flows In dry years: > risks in the winter , slightly
more negative OMR flows
77
DCC Gate Operations
DCC Gates
Sacramento
River
N
S
E W
78
DCC Gates Manmade channel (early 1950s) to enhance
water quality for CVP exports at Tracy Can pass 6,000 cfs when gates are open, ≈ 20 to
25 percent of Sacramento River flow at Freeport can move into the Mokelumne River
Listed salmonids are diverted into the channel when the gates are open. Entrainment rate is related to river flow, time of day, and tidal cycle.
Survival of these fish is substantially lower than those fish that remain in the Sacramento River .
Early migrating salmon and steelhead (Nov – Jan) are at risk under current operations schedule.
79
Timing of Juvenile winter-run passage at Knights Landing rotary screw trap sampling 1995-2006
(Low, White, and Chappell 2006)
80
RPA Overview for DCC Gates
Integrate current monitoring triggers with new gate operations in December and January.
Close DCC gates from December 15 to January 31.
Weekly evaluations of monitoring data by the Delta Operations for Salmonids and Sturgeon technical team (DOSS).
Flexibility of gate operations regarding water quality criteria and experimental studies.
Study alternative engineering solutions to control access to the Delta interior
81
Modeled Changes in Export Levels
CVP and SWP exports increase in both near future (Study 7.1) and future conditions (Study 8.0) compared to the current condition (Study 7.0).
Significant increases in exports during the late fall and winter time frames over current operations.
SWP exports increase in April and May due to decrease in “fish water” available for export curtailment.
82
Effects to Listed Salmonids
Elevated exports result in an increased potential for entrainment at the export facilities, as well as migrational delays for fish entering the Delta interior,
Increases in exports reflected in increased negative Old and Middle River flows
Diversion of listed fish into the interior of the Delta increases the risk of mortality (i.e., predation) as well as exposure to contaminants in the Delta interior. Overall mortality in the interior Delta: 35-90% of those that enter the interior Delta 5-20% of winter-run Chinook salmon
population entering the Delta San Joaquin River Basin fish have an increased
vulnerability to entrainment with increased exports levels.
83
SWP
CVP
Flow Patterns in the Delta
84
Projected Old and Middle River Flows
Wet and Above Normal Water Year Types Study December January February March Average Study 7.0 -8350 -6391 -7322 -6858 -7230 Study 7.1 -8083 -6511 -7377 -7956 -7482 Study 8.0 -8230 -6276 -7203 -7890 -7400 Study April May June July Average Study 7.0 -5847 -4381 -4118 -643 -3747 Study 7.1 -6561 -4652 -3450 -1146 -3952 Study 8.0 -6611 -4941 -3792 -1193 -4134
Below Normal and Dry Water Year Types
Study December January February March Average Study 7.0 -7668 -6125 -6767 -7117 -6919 Study 7.1 -6687 -6098 -6504 -8063 -6838 Study 8.0 -6946 -6030 6435 -8004 -6854 Study April May June July Average Study 7.0 -6889 -6052 -5573 -1064 -4895 Study 7.1 -7889 -5897 -5440 -1442 -5167 Study 8.0 -8038 -5989 -5407 -1428 -5215
Critical Water Year Type Study December January February March Average Study 7.0 -4576 -5633 -5293 -6158 -5415 Study 7.1 -3375 -5399 -4892 -6389 -5014 Study 8.0 -3312 -5317 -4333 -6315 -4819 Study April May June July Average Study 7.0 -5368 -4250 -2514 -797 -3232 Study 7.1 -5903 -4744 -2824 -842 -3578 Study 8.0 -5618 -4865 -3024 -870 -3594
85
86
Particle Entrainment at the Export Facilities under different OMR
flows
~ 40%
USFWS 2008
87
Initial Slope
SWP Loss vs. OMR flows
88
RPA Overview for Exports
Integrate current monitoring triggers with new export operations January through June.
Limit OMR flows, no more negative than -5,000 cfs January through June.
Staged Reductions in exports when fish are present at the facilities, measured by OMR flow levels.
Weekly review of operations and fish salvage by the DOSS technical group.
Actions compatible with the FWS Delta smelt actions
89
Direct Entrainment at Project Facilities
Survival is low through the salvage facilities: • 1 out of 6 fish survive at the SWP• 1 out of 3 fish survive at the CVP
Screening Efficiency Predation issues CHTR operations (Collection,
Handling, Trucking and Release)
90
Overall survival estimates of fish collection actions
Estimate of Survival for Screening Process at the SWP and CVP1
SWP Percent survival Running Percent Pre-screen Survival2 25 percent3 (75 percent loss) 25 Louver Efficiency 75 percent (25 percent loss) 18.75 CHTR Survival 98 percent (2 percent loss) 18.375 Post Release Survival (predation only)
90 percent (10 percent loss) 16.54
CVP4 Percent survival Running Percent
Pre-screen Survival5 85 percent (15 percent loss) 85 Louver Efficiency6 46.8 (53.2 percent loss) 39.78 CHTR Survival 98 percent (2 percent loss) 38.98 Post Release Survival (predation only)
90 percent (10 percent loss) 35.08
91
RPA Overview for Direct Export Entrainment
Increase overall salvage efficiency to 75% for both facilities
Directed actions for both facilities include:• Improve screening efficiency/operations• Reduce predation losses• Improve reporting methodology
Improve survival of salvaged fish releases • Release fish from mobile barges,
multiple release sites, or other methods
92
Indirect Mortality in Delta Interior
Assessed indirect mortality within delta interior utilizing applicable studies and literature.
Compared export and non-export related mortality within the interior delta utilizing DWR’s Delta Survival model and CalSim II output from Studies 7.0 (current operations), 7.1 (near future operations), and 8.0 (future operations).
Assessed recent survival studies utilizing acoustically tagged fish.
93
Results from DWR Survival Model
Monthly export related mortality for Sacramento River fish ranged from <1% to 15% combining all studies and water year types for the period between December and June.
Monthly Indirect mortality (non-export) for Sacramento River fish ranged from 3% to 32% combining all studies and water year types for the period between December and June.
Higher E/I ratios had higher mortality levels. Higher E/I ratios typically occurred in December
and January in drier hydrological conditions. Monthly total population mortality for
Sacramento River basin fish migrating downstream in the Sacramento River ranged from 23% to 59% under same conditions as above.
94
RPA Overview for Indirect Mortality
Indirect mortality is related to most of the project elements associated with the Delta
The suite of RPA actions that focus on the Delta elements act in concert to reduce indirect mortality by reducing exposure to the sources of mortality
95
San Joaquin River Inflow to the Delta
OCAP assumes that VAMP – like flows and exports will continue into the future.
BUT: No defined description of this operation has been presented to date and there is limited “fish water” available to offset VAMP water costs in the future.
Spring-time flows currently seen during the VAMP operations on the Tuolumne River and Merced River are likely to decline
Project and non-project stressors result in 90-99% mortality of Juvenile San Joaquin River steelhead.
Increased survival and subsequent adult returns are linked to increased river flows during the juvenile outmigration period
96
Relationship of April and May flows to Adult
EscapementFall-Run Chinook Salmon Escapemnt shifted 2 years
in relation to water year
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
Years
Flo
w a
t V
ern
alis
(c
fs)
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
90000
Ad
ult
Es
ca
pe
me
nt
April Flow s May Flow s SJR Fall-run Escapement
97
Total Escapement to the San Joaquin River Tributaries, 1951 through 1996,And Spring Time flows 2.5 years Earlier
From Baker and Morhardt, 2001
98From 2006 VAMP report
Relationship between Adult Fall-run Chinook Salmon Escapement and the Vernalis flow to export ratio 2.5 years earlier
99
RPA Overview for San Joaquin River Flows into
the Delta Flows are based on previous studies
and historical gaged flows at Vernalis.
Numerous iterations of the proposed flow criteria were run to examine the effects of the action before deciding on a final action.
RPA is phased in over time Flexibility in RPA pertaining to water
year type and drought conditions Continuing adaptive management
100
NMFS’ OCAP Opinion is located at
http://swr.nmfs.noaa.gov/ocap.htmPresentation can be found at:
http://swr.nmfs.noaa.gov/ocap/nasreview.htm