Net Energy Next Energy

by Ron Swenson

www.HubbertPeak.com/ASPO-USA

Swenson Curve To avoid

deprivation, humanity must match depletion with conservation and enduring substitution.

www.HubbertPeak.com/Swenson

120

100

80

60

40

20

0 0 10 20 30 40

Time

Consequences of Delayed Energy Investment

begin investment before decline

Net Energy Production

Begin investment during decline

www.HubbertPeak.com/BeyondOil

A flurry of books: What’s going down…

www.HubbertPeak.com/Library

Okay, we know what’s going down …

But what’s coming up?

Thomas Edison “I'd put my

money on the sun and solar energy. What a source of power! I hope we don't have to wait 'til oil and coal run out before we tackle that.”

(1847-1931) www.ThomasEdison.com

The Party's Over

“Photovoltaic electricity is still expensive.”

Richard Heinberg

www.HubbertPeak.com/apollo2

Beyond Oil

“Solar electrical generation is not yet competitive for large-scale facilities...”

Kenneth S. Deffeyes

www.HubbertPeak.com/apollo2

I thought we were talking about Energy!?

So how did Economics (an instrument of policy) get into the picture?

Oil, Jihad & Destiny

“Solar power technology, however, is still in the stone age.”

Ronald R. Cooke

www.HubbertPeak.com/Youngquist

The Long Emergency “… solar

power ... works, though not nearly as well as fossil fuel …

James Howard Kunstler

www.HubbertPeak.com/apollo2

“But all of them combined -- sun, wind, and water -- could never produce enough energy to replace the astronomical amounts of fossil fuel the West is consuming...”

Pierre Chomat

Oil Addiction: The World in Peril

www.hubbertPeak.com/debate/oilcalcs.htm

Global Solar Energy BalanceSolar Energy Input (TeraWatts)

178,000

Reflected to Space Immediately 53,000

Absorbed and Then Reflected as Heat 82,000

Used to Evaporate Water (Weather) 40,000

Captured by Plant Photosynthesis 100

Total Energy Used by Human Society 13

Total Energy Used by US Society 2.5

Total Human Food Energy 0.6

www.hubbertPeak.com/debate/oilcalcs.htm

Energy State and Quality (Grade)“In contrast to its vast quantity, the quality of solar energy is low relative to fossil fuels.

[] “The EROI for fossil fuels tends to be large while that for solar tends to be low.

“Higher energy densities also contribute to the higher EROI for fossil fuels relative to many renewable fuels.”

Cutler Cleveland

Tell that to a street vendor in Mexico City.

… and what is the premise of converting solar field energy into fuel in the first place?

… unless you consider depletion, ecological footprint of extraction, or the implications of ephemeral technology.

Energy States: Solid, Liquid, G a s, Field

Thermodynamics of Coal

Plus…• Greenhouse gases • Ravaged land• Water contamination• People displaced• Extraction uses oil

EROI = 927 ~ electric quality

1 BOE

Thermodynamics of Oil

It depends …• Pennsylvania?• Saudi Arabia?• Off-shore?

Plus …• Ravaged land/oceans• Greenhouse gases• Water contamination

EROI = 10±

EROI = 4 12 ~ electric

Thermodynamics of Nuclear

Plus …

• Depletion

• Low grade ores → Greenhouse gases to process

• Waste guard for 10,000+ years

… How do we value a 1,000+ year wasteland?

Thermodynamics of Tar Sands

Plus…• Greenhouse gases• Ravaged land• Water contamination• Extraction uses

natural gas

EROI = 3Why bother?!

Thermodynamics of Hydrogen

Am I missing something?!

EROI = -½

Thermodynamics of PV

• EROI: 5 years

• Life: 50 years

• Plus it can be bootstrapped

EROI = 1030 ~ electric

Thermodynamics of Thin Film PV

• EROI: 6 months

• Life: 20 years

EROI = 40120 ~electric

Thermodynamics of Wind

• EROI: 3 months

• Life: 20 years

EROI = 80240 ~ electric

Back to State & Quality (grade) …How does ERoEI analysis embrace these factors?• Time / sustainability

• oil depletion: Inevitable degradation of quality.• solar endurance: “Low” quality starts to make sense.

• Land use / ecological footprint• Uranium tailings: Most dense becomes the most diffuse. • Open pit coal mines: Density depends on measuring stick.• It’s even an issue with Solar: PV on roofs ≠ PV in deserts.

•Security / Energy drain on future generations• Nuclear Power M.A.D.: ERoEI goes astronomically negative.• Oil Wars: How much energy does it take to protect energy?• Solar: Power satellites are weapons, not energy technology.

Energy States: Solid, Liquid, G a s, Field

Next Energywww.HubbertPeak.com/ASPO-USA

Since oil is big in the transportation sector…

… a short history lesson.

How did transportation transform? • from solid fuels (hay and then coal) to• liquid fuels (oil)

And where do we go from here?

Lest we forget …They did bring coal to Newcastle.

...not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses.

Van Buren 18328th President 1837-1841

If canal boats are supplanted by railroads, serious unemployment will result …

No joke!

The original buggy whip protest

The Horseless Carriage

From GridLock to Gas Lines

Corn Cars & Bean Buses?

Back to solid fuels?

The All-New DonCar!

www.HubbertPeak.com/Transport

Electricity. Not exactly a new idea…

Touch?

… and it is ephemeral, like solar power.

See?

A match made in heaven.

Lift?

The Electric Rail

Personal Rapid Transit (PRT)

www.ecotopia.com/ST

Energy Revolution (Terawatt Challenge)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

OilCoa

lGas

Fission

Biomas

s

Hydro

electr

ic

Solar,

wind, g

eoth

ermal

0.5%

Source: BP & IEA

2004

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

OilCoa

lGas

Fusio

n / F

issio

n

Biomas

s

Hydro

electr

ic

Solar,

wind

, geo

therm

al

2050

14.5 Terawatts220 M BOE/day

30 -- 60 Terawatts450 – 900 MBOE/day

The Basis of Prosperity 20st Century = Oil 21st Century = [Renewables]

www.HubbertPeak.com/Smalley

PV: The Growth Industry

OilOil

PVPV

Oil declines at 4%/yr

PV increases at 50%/yr

Can Solar Energy Substitute for Oil?

Yes!

“Think TeraWatts”

www.HubbertPeak.com/ASPO-USA

Taking it one step further …

• You may think I’m pushing solar?

• Yes and no. The main point is …

• Prevailing sentiments cannot blind us from seeing the solutions with the best ERoEI…

• And we cannot be fixated on direct substitution of oil with liquid fuels, especially given the historic role of oil and the myriad advantages of electric transport.

ERoEI(field) >> ERoEI(solid, liquid, gas)

Fuels (solid/liquid/gas) will still have a place…

www.ecotopia.com/ST

• ERoEI of biofuels may be too low for urban transport…

(not to mention smog, congestion, hazard)

• Fuels will remain essential for:

• Airplanes

• Ships at sea -- with wind power augmentation (KiteTugs)

• Agriculture

Colin Campbell

“Photovoltaics … will be economic … when there is serious production.”

1996

www.HubbertPeak.com/Campbell

Solar Industry Response?

www.HubbertPeak.com/Apollo2

Goals• 50% US electricity by 2025 ≠• 200 gW by 2030 = 10%

How to get there? • Federal government procurement

$100 m/year• R&D investment $250 m/year by

2010• “Enact, modify, establish, boost,

support, increase, strengthen, grow…”

Inadequate

InadequateInconsistent

Inconsistent

Inconsistent

Inconsistent

Global Warming over the Past Millennium

Very rapidly we have entered uncharted territory… Over the 20th century, … energy consumption increased sixteenfold. Global warming from the fossil fuel greenhouse became a major, and increasingly dominant, factor in climate change.

Slide from Marty Hoffert NYU (see Smalley)

The conclusions are simple:

• We are not doing enough fast enough. • To spend our depleting energy capital

resources effectively, we must first understand the Thermodynamics (ERoEI) of the alternatives.

• Then we must act quickly with resolve.

Economics or Thermodynamics: Which will it be?

Next Energywww.HubbertPeak.com/ASPO-USA

If canal boats are supplanted by railroads, serious unemployment will result. Captains, cooks, drivers, repairment, and lock tenders will be left without means of livelihood, not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses.

Boat builders would suffer and towline, whip, and harness makers would be left destitute.

Martin van Buren, Governor of New York, April 1832.