Demographic Analysis of Nepal

By: Rohan Byanjankar

Demographic Composition of Nepalese Society

• Census Analysis• Ethnic Society• Gender Composition• Regional Composition• Ecological Composition • Religious Composition• Caste Composition• Fertility/Migration/Mortality

SOME OF THE RELATED TERMS

•Demography• Demography is the systematic study of population. Demography

can be separated into two words Demo means people, and Graphy means study.

• Population• Population can be defined as the total number of people living in a

specific area over a specific time period. It can also be defined as a collective group of organism of same species occupying a particular space over a specific period of time.

• Population density • Population density can be defines as the total number of people

living in a certain area such as per square kilometer or per square miles and so on.

SOME OF THE RELATED TERMS

• Population composition• Population composition can be defined as the distribution of

population according to demographic characteristics (age, sex, marital status) and socio-economic characteristics (language, mother tongue, religion, caste, and ethnicity).

•Census• Population census can be defined as the national level survey of

population that records various records of individuals. The census is taken in every ten years in Nepal. It is generally referred as national population and housing census.

SOME OF THE RELATED TERMS

•History of census in world and Nepal• In the world history, the first census was taken in 3340 BC in

Egypt; followed by Greek census in 1600 BC; Chinese census in 2 AD during Han Dynasty; Indian census in 300 BCE during the time of Chandragupta Maurya in the guidance of Kautilya. • In Nepal, the history of census is not very old. It started in 1911

AD.

SOME OF THE RELATED TERMS

Difference between De facto and De jure Method

• Ethnic society• Ethnic society can be defined as the group of people who are living

in a certain geographical region and share common language, culture, occupation, tradition, belief system, and so on. There are about 125 ethnic groups in Nepal as of 2011.

SOME OF THE RELATED TERMS

•Gender composition• Gender is the role expected by the society from male, female, and

non-heterogeneous individuals. Gender is socially constructed, so is true in social reality but might be false in natural reality. • Gender composition defined as the total number of male, female,

and non-heterogeneous individuals living in a particular area in a specific time period.

SOME OF THE RELATED TERMS

•Regional composition• Nepal has been divided in five development region. Initially, there

were only four development region (2028), and was made five in 2038 by splitting larger far western development region into Mid-western and Far western development regions. • The distribution of population in these development regions is

called regional composition.

SOME OF THE RELATED TERMS

•Religious Composition • The belief in and reverence for a supernatural power or powers in

which a large number of people believe in; every religion calls for purity of linage. • The distribution of population according to religion is called

religious composition.•Caste Composition • Caste system is the closed system that is only found in Hinduism

and is based on Manu Smiriti. • The distribution of population of according to caste of people is

called Caste Composition.

SOME OF THE RELATED TERMS

• Fertility• Fertility is the ability to conceive children. The TFR represents the

average number of children a woman would potentially have, were she to fast-forward through all her childbearing years in a single year, under all the age-specific fertility rates for that year.

•Fecundity • Fecundity refers to potential to reproduce or how much a single

person can reproduce?

SOME OF THE RELATED TERMS

•Migration• Migration refers to the act of shifting the settlement from one

location to other location due to marriage, employment, natural calamities, and so on. The migration affects the environment of both places.

•Mortality • Mortality means a state of being subject to death. Mortality rate can

be defined as the total number of deaths in a particular area in a specific time period generally expressed in terms of 1000.

SOME OF THE RELATED TERMS

Census Analysis

Census Analysis (General Population)• According to 1981 census, the total population was 15,022,893 and the

growth rate estimated 2.52%• According to 1991 census, the total population was 18,491,097 and the

growth rate estimated 2.08%• According to 2001 census, the total population was 23,151,423 and the

growth rate estimated 2.25%• According to 2011 census, the total population was 26,494,504 and the

growth rate estimated 1.35%

Census Analysis

Year Total Population Annual Growth rate1961 9412996 1.641971 11555983 2.051981 15,022,893 2.521991 18,491,097 2.082001 23,151,423 2.252011 26,494,504 1.35

2031 (Prediction) 33,597,032 -

Census Analysis

1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2031 (Prediction)0

5000000

10000000

15000000

20000000

25000000

30000000

35000000

40000000

Total Population

Total Population

Census Analysis

Urban and Rural Population

Sex ratio (number of males per 100 females):• Sex ratio: 105 in 1981 and 99 in 1991.• Decreased from 99.8 in 2001 to 94.2 in 2011. • In abstract number, there are 796,422 more females than males in the

country (As of 2011).• Sex ratio is highest (127) in Manang district and lowest (76) in

Gulmi district.

Census Analysis

Year Sex ratio (in 100 female)1981 1051991 992001 99.82011 94.2

Census Analysis

1981 1991 2001 2011

105

99

99.8

94.2

Sex ratio (in 100 female)Sex ratio (in 100 female)

Census Analysis

Population Pyramid

Population Density:• Population at the national level is 180 in 2011 compared to 157 in

2001.• The highest population density is found in Kathmandu district (4,416

person per square km) and lowest (3 person per square km) in Manang District.

Census Analysis

Caste/Ethnicity: • There are 125 caste/ethnic groups reported in the census 2011. • Chhetri is the largest caste/ethnic groups having 16.6% (4,398,053) • Brahman-Hill (12.2% ; 3,226,903), • Magar (7.1% ; 1,887,733), • Tharu (6.6% ; 1,737,470), Tamang (5.8% ; 1,539,830), • Newar (5.0% ; 1,321,933), • Kami (4.8% ; 1,258,554), Musalman (4.4% ; 1,164,255), Yadav

(4.0% ; 1,054,458) and Rai (2.3% ; 620,004).

Census Analysis

Tabular Analysis

Year Chhetri Bhramin hill

Magar Tharu Tamang Newar Muslim Kami Yadhav

2001 15.8 12.7 7.1 6.8 5.6 5.5 4.3 3.9 3.92011 16.6 12.2 7.1 6.6 5.8 5.0 4.4 4.8 4

Graphical Analysis

Chhetri

Bhramin hill

Magar

Tharu

Taman

gNew

ar

Muslim Kam

i

Yadha

v0

4

8

12

16

Caste Composition of Population

2001 2011

Mother Tongue: • There are 123 languages spoken as mother tongue reported in census

2011. • Nepali is spoken as mother tongue by 44.6 percent (11,826,953)• Maithili (11.7% 3,092,530), Bhojpuri (6.0%; 1,584,958), • Tharu (5.8%; 1,529,875), Tamang (5.1%; 1,353,311), • Newar (3.2%; 846,557), Bajjika (3.0%; 793,418), • Magar (3.0%; 788,530), Doteli (3.0%; 787,827), Urdu (2.6%; 691,546).

Census Analysis

Tabular Analysis

Year Nepali Maithili Bhojpuri Tharu Tamang Newar Bajjika Magar Deteli1981 58.36 11.11 7.61 3.63 3.48 2.99 1.56 1.42 1.471991 50.31 11.85 7.46 5.37 4.89 3.37 2.03 2.33 1.632001 48.61 12.3 7.53 5.86 5.19 3.63 2.47 3.39 2.472011 44.6 11.7 6 5.8 5.1 3.2 3 3 3

Nepali Maithili Bhojpuri Tharu Tamang Newar Bajjika Magar Deteli0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Linguistic Composition of Population

1981199120012011

Graphical Analysis

• Religion: There are ten types of religion categories reported in the census. Hinduism isfollowed by 81.3 percent (21,551,492) of the population while Buddhism (9.0%; 2,396,099), Islam (4.4%; 1,162,370), • Kirat (3.1%; 807,169), Christianity (1.4%; 375,699),• Prakriti (0.5%; 121,982), Bon (13,006),• Jainism (3,214), Bahai (1,283) and Sikhism (609).

Census Analysis

Tabular Analysis

Religion / Year 1991 2001 2011Hinduism 89.5 80.62 81.3Buddhism 5.3 10.74 9Muslim 2.7 4.20 4.4Kirata - 3.60 3.1Christian - 0.45 1.4Others 2.5 0.39 0.8

Graphical Analysis

Hinduism Buddhism Muslim Kirata Christian Others0

102030405060708090

100

Religions in Nepal (1991, 2001, 2011)

1991 2001 2011

Population distribution by Age (2011)

Age Group Population Percentage0-15 9248246 34.90628

15-60 15091848 56.9621860+ 2154410 8.131536Total 26494504 100

0-15 15-60 60+0

2000000

4000000

6000000

8000000

10000000

12000000

14000000

16000000

Population by age

Population

Population by ecological zones

Ecological distribution (2011)

Population by ecological zones

Region/ Year 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011

Mountain 9.9 8.7 7.8 7.3 6.72

Hilly 52.5 47.7 45.5 44.3 43

Terai 37.6 43.6 46.7 48.4 50.28

Population by ecological zones

1971 1981 1991 2001 20110

102030405060

Ecological Belt

Mountain Hilly Terai

Year

Perc

enta

ge o

f Pop

ulat

ion

Population by ecological zones

Regional Composition (2011)

EDR22%

CDR36%

WDR19%

MWDR13%

FWDR10%

rEGIONAL pOPULATION

EDR CDR WDR MWDR FWDR0

2000000

4000000

6000000

8000000

10000000

12000000

5811555

9656985

4926795

35466822552517

rEGIONAL pOPULATION

Series1

Development Region

Popu

latio

n

Regional Composition (2011)

Marital Status

Year Mortality

1961 325.9

1971 264.9

1981 204.4

1991 135.3

2001 77

2011 43.21950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 20200

50100150200250300350

Mortality under 5 years

YearM

orta

lity

per 1

000

Mortality Rate per 10000 live births.

Year 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2016 (est.)Birth per women 5.99 5.96 5.72 5.09 3.92 2.50 2.21

1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2016 (est.)01234567

Birth per women

Year

Bir

th p

er w

omen

Fertility Rate

MIG

RATI

ON

General Overview (Population: 2011)

Population Projection

Population Projection