Post on 27-Dec-2015
National Leaders in Real Estate Research
Streetcar Economic Development Impact and Projected Ridership
Ken Danter The Danter Company
Streetcar Working GroupNovember 13, 2006
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Economic Impact Considerations
Residential/Commercial/Business Development
Property Taxes New Jobs to Downtown and Resulting City
Income Taxes Convention and Tourism and Resulting
Expenditures
COLUMBUS TREND
PORTLAND TREND
STREETCARCONSTRUCTION
BEGINS
STREETCAROPENS
ESTIMATED PORTLAND TREND WITH NO STREETCAR DEVELOPMENT
ESTIMATEDSTREETCAR
IMPACT
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Residential/Commercial/Business Development By Type
Condominium/Apartment – 1,500 units Ground-floor Commercial/Business –
120,000 to 150,000 square feet Hotel/Lodging – 300 additional hotel rooms
– Brings additional Bed Tax Revenues City’s Emergency Human Services Fund Columbus General Fund Housing Trust Fund Cultural Development Promote City of Columbus
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Candidates for Development Potential
Vacant parcels Surface parking Underused parcels Historic properties in fair to poor condition
that might be eligible for historic tax credits
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Key Characteristics of Proposed Lines
Line
BlueGreen West
Green East
Blue + Red
Blue + Red + Green
Vacant, Surface Parking and Underused Parcels
24.78 acres
12.26 acres
24.17 acres
36.44 acres
72.87 acres
Historic Properties Square Feet
679,317 sq. ft.
0 sq. ft.
541,241 sq. ft.
736,655 sq. ft.
1,277,896 sq. ft.
Within 400 feet of line (approximately 1 city block)
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Projected Residential/Commercial/ Business Development Impact
LINELOW
ESTIMATE*HIGH
ESTIMATE*
Blue $211 million $238 million
Blue + Green East $394 million $448 million
Blue + Green West $308 million $346 million
Blue + Green $491 million $556 million
Blue + Red $259 million $297 million
Blue + Green + Red $540 million $616 million
*Adjusted to 2008 dollars (4.0% annual increase – Source: CDDC)
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Property Tax Estimates – (5-year Cumulative)(75% Abatement Applied to Downtown Properties)
LINELOW
ESTIMATE*HIGH
ESTIMATE*
Blue $2.5 million $2.9 million
Blue + Green East $4.9 million $5.6 million
Blue + Green West $3.7 million $4.2 million
Blue + Green $6.0 million $6.9 million
Blue + Red $5.2 million $6.0 million
Blue + Green + Red $8.6 million $9.9 million
*Adjusted to 2008 dollars (4.0% annual increase – Source: CDDC)
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Additional Jobs to Downtown Generated by Streetcars Over 3,000 jobs Downtown from streetcars Types of jobs projected:
– Construction– Residential management/maintenance– Commercial/business services– Streetcar drivers/maintenance/support
Average income: $42,200 Cumulative (5-year) increase in city income tax:
$2.7 million**Adjusted to 2008 dollars (4.0% annual increase – Source: CDDC)
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Convention and Tourism Increase and Resulting Expenditures
90,000 additional visitors– 50,000 overnight stays– 40,000 day trips
$52.8 million* cumulative expenditures over 5 years
*Adjusted to 2008 dollars (4.0% annual increase – Source: CDDC)
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Total Economic Development5 years
LINELOW
ESTIMATE*HIGH
ESTIMATE*Blue $216 million $248 million
Blue + Green East $410 million $464 million
Blue + Green West $319 million $356 million
Blue + Green $508 million $578 million
Blue + Red $270 million $308 million
Blue + Green + Red $562 million $637 million
*All totals adjusted to 2008 dollars (4.0% annual increase – Source: CDDC)
Includes market value of development of condominiums, rental units, commercial/businesses and hotels; cumulative property tax (not considering abatements); cumulative net gain from city income tax (over 800 new employees); cumulative increase in convention/tourism expenditures
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Ridership Considerations
Population Employment Hotel rooms Student enrollment Destinations Case studies
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Ridership Case Study Factors Within 800 Feet of Line
MarketResident
Population EmployeesHotel
Rooms
Average Daily Ridership
(Stabilized)
Memphis 2,884 19,827 2,627 2,514
Portland 14,731 49,931 2,936 6,900
Columbus Blue + Green
5,442 64,833 3,105 5,000 – 5,600*
Columbus Blue + Green + Red
10,886 67,002 3,105 6,400 – 7,200*
* At stabilization (5 years)
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Ridership Estimates
Average Daily Ridership Estimates Blue/Green
– Stabilized ridership (Year 5) – 5,000 to 5,600– First 4 years of operation - 3,000 to 4,500
Red Line Extension (Buttles to 11th Avenue)– Stabilized ridership (Year 5) – 1,400 to 1,600– First 4 years of operation - 840 to 1,280