Slide1 ©2016NASFAA

National Association of Student Financial Aid Administrators

©2016NASFAA

The following is a presentation prepared for NASFAA’s

2016 National Conference in Washington, DCJuly 10 – 13, 2016

Session200

Slide2 ©2016NASFAA

National Association of Student Financial Aid Administrators

©2016NASFAA

Restructuring Institutional Financial Aid

Programs RevisitedJonathan Jacobs, Director of Enrollment

Management Research

Jim Brooks, Assistant Vice President, Financial Aid and Scholarships

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University of Oregon

• Foundedin1876• LocatedinEugene,Oregon• WASFAAregion• Public,4year• 90%fulltimestudentsandtraditionallyagedundergraduatepopulation

• MemberoftheAAU• MemberofthePAC-12

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University of Oregon

• CostofAttendance(2016-2017):

– Residents:$25,815Ø Tuition/Fees:$10,761

– Non-Residents:$49,392Ø Tuition/Fees:$33,441

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Financial Aid Snapshot

• Award$250,000,000infinancialaid

• 73%ofundergraduatesreceiveaid

• 25%ofadmittedundergraduatesareFederalPellGranteligible– 38%Oregonian

• 59%ofgraduatingclassreceivedinstitutionalaid

• 51%ofgraduatingclasshavestudentdebt

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Agenda

• InstitutionalGoals• Financialaidstrategy• Briefrecapofinstitutionalaidprograms• Wherewearetoday• Howwegothere– Dataanalysis• Results• Whatwe’velearned

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Accesswithoutqualityisahollowpromise;Qualitywithoutaccessisnotapublicuniversity.

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Institutional Goals

• Improvequality offreshmanclassasdefinedbyGPA&standardizedtestscores

• Increasediversity offreshmanclassasdefinedbyethnicity&socialeconomicstatus

• Increaseinternational presenceoftheUniversityofOregon

• KeepUOaffordable

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Financial Aid Strategy

v Merit-BasedFinancialAid

v Need-BasedFinancialAid

• Mustaligntorecruitmentandenrollmentgoals

• Mustbepresentedineasilyunderstoodmannertostudentsandparents

• Mustbecoordinatedandappliedstrategically

• Mustbewidelypublished

• Requiresoutstandingstudentservice

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• Merit-BasedFinancialAid

– Mustbebasedonhighstandards

– Designedtoincreasequalityatalllevelsin“pipeline”or“funnel”

– Requirescontinualoutcomeassessment

– KeyRecruitmentPoint:Ø Parents,students,highschoolcontactsshouldhaveclear

understandingofmerit-basedparametersearlyinstudentselectionprocess

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Need Based Aid Program

• PathwayOregon– Redesignedtomeetenrollmentgoals– Clear,concisecriteria– Increaseinstudentsanddollarsawarded– DesignedforOregonResidents

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• AddressesneedoflowestincomeOregonfamilies

• Buildsonexistingfederalprogram(Pell)

• Providesfullcostoftuition&feestoparticipants

• Beginsrecruitmentprocessattheearlyhighschoollevel

• Deliversmessageof“hope”tolowincomepopulation

• Buildsonmentoringstructureforsuccessalreadyinplace

• Providesfundingfordiversegroupofstudents

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• DesiredOutcome:

– Easytounderstand,cleareligibilitycriteria

– IncreaseSESdiversity

– Increaseretention

– Increasegraduationrates

– Shortentimetograduation

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Merit Based Aid Programs

• Scholarshipprogramswerenotnew• Effectivenessneverassessed• Transparency• Concernsaboutaffordability

– Lowincome,middleincome• Balanceneed-basedandmerit-basedaid• Increaseresidentstudentyield• Concernsaboutstudentdebtload

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DesiredOutcome:

– Easytounderstand,cleareligibilitycriteria

– Highstandards

– Increasequality

– Increaseretention

– Increasegraduationrates

– Shortentimetograduation

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• SummitScholarship:– $6,000*residents/$9,000*non-residents

Ø Requires3.80GPA,1190SAT/26ACT

• ApexScholarship:– $3,000residents/$4,000non-residents

Ø Requires3.60GPA,1150SAT/25ACT

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Research Questions

1. Whateffectdoesadditionalmeritaidhaveontheprobabilityofenrollment?

2. Howdowemodeltheeffectofrestructuredaidonanenteringclass?

3. Howcanwecomparedifferentaidpackagesdynamicallyandinstantly?

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1. Effect of AidInstitution Aid (an independent variable) influences the decision to attend college (the target variable).

• Population: Freshman Admits, fall 2011

• Target Variable: BINARY: Student enrolls in the fall

• Model Methodologies:

NeuralNetwork

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1. Effect of Aid

Whatelsedidwecontrolfor?• IndependentVariables

– TOTALGRANTAID(minusfederal/state)– HighSchoolGPA– SATorconvertedACT– AdmissiontoHonor’sCollege– Residency– Dayapplicationwassubmitted– Firstgeneration– Underrepresentedrace/ethnicity– Significantinteractions

Max-RescaledR-square .25

C-statistic .77

Hosmer andLemeshowGoodness-of-FitTest

.57

Thiscreatesthemodel.Wetrustthemodeltotellustheimpactofaid.

Themodelwillnotchange.

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2. Model the Effect of Changing Aid

StudentadmissionsandfinancialaiddataFall2011-2014

Studentadmissionsandfinancialaiddata

Fall2014

START

RunRegressionAnalysistoCreateaPredictiveModel.

MODELWILLNOTCHANGE

MODEL

SCORE

Determineprobabilityeachstudentwillenrollbasedonthemodel

createdabove.AIDIMPACTSTHEPROBABILITY

Wenowknowtheimpactofaid.

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2. Model the Effect of Changing AidThemodelgivesaprobabilitybasedonthemetrics.Changingametricchangestheprobabilityofenrollment.

Orig $0 $1K $2K $3K $4K $5K $6K $7K $8K $9K $10K $11K $12K

22.0% 17.3% 19.4% 22.0% 25.1% 28.8% 33.0% 37.5% 42.1% 46.7% 51.0% 54.9% 58.6% 62.2%

HighSchoolGPASATorconvertedACTAdmissiontoHonor’sCollegeResidencyDayapplicationwassubmittedFirstgenerationUnderrepresentedrace/ethnicity

TOTALGRANTAID(minusfederal/state)

KEEPTHESECONSTANT

CHANGEAID

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2. Model the Effect of Changing Aid

Orig $0 $1K $2K $3K $4K $5K $6K $7K $8K $9K $10K $11K $12K

15.6% 12.6% 13.1% 13.6% 14.2% 14.7% 15.1% 15.6% 16.1% 16.7% 17.7% 19.4% 22.0% 26.0%

Orig $0 $1K $2K $3K $4K $5K $6K $7K $8K $9K $10K $11K $12K

22.0% 17.3% 19.4% 22.0% 25.1% 28.8% 33.0% 37.5% 42.1% 46.7% 51.0% 54.9% 58.6% 62.2%

BobApple,Resident,GPA3.91,SAT1110

ChrisCoe,Nonresident,GPA3.86SAT1070

Orig $0 $1K $2K $3K $4K $5K $6K $7K $8K $9K $10K $11K $12K

20.8% 20.8% 23.9% 27.7% 32.2% 37.4% 43.1% 49.1% 54.9% 60.2% 65.0% 69.3% 73.1% 76.6%

KerryOki,Nonresident,GPA3.27,SAT990

Usethistechniquetoscoreeverysinglestudent.Herearethreeof16,000.

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3. Compare Aid Packages Instantly

Customizewhogetsaidandhow

muchAdmitsfallintotherightbucketbasedonGPA/Testcuts

Themodelcalculatesthenewyieldbasedontheproposedaward

Verifythattheprogramfits

budgetrequirements

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Elasticity of Demand

33.9%37.2%

44.4%

$0 $2,000 $5,000

ProbabilityofEnrollmentatDifferentLevelsofAidResidents,3.8HSGPAorhigher,1200SATorhigher

3.3pointincreasetoyield.10%persuadedbyaid90%alreadycoming

10.5pointincreasetoyield.30%persuadedbyaid70%alreadycoming

Aid Admit TotalEnroll Cost

CostPerGainedStudent

0 100 34 $0 NA

$2,000 100 37(+3) $74K $25K

$5,000 100 44(+10) $220K $22K

Ifthemodeliscorrect,a$1Mprogramwouldyield5morestudentsatthehigheraidamount.

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AdditionalCostofNewFinancialAidProgram +$179K(+3.2%)

Increase toTotalResidentAwards 50%($1.8Mto$2.7M)

Additional“Summit” StudentsEnrolled(3.80HS GPA,1190SAT)(Includesnonresident)

+129(+24%)

EnrollmentofstudentswithLessThana 3.00HighSchoolGPA -97 (-77%)

AverageHighSchoolGPA 3.62(+0.05pointimprovementovermodelusingactualawards)

AverageSAT 1123(+34point improvementovermodelusingactualawards)

Themodelshowsanetincreaseof106admitsenrollingduetoreallocatingandincreasingaid.Source:UOEnrollmentManagementResearch,JonathanJacobs

ModeledBenefitsoftheNewMeritAwardAssumingthesame2011AdmitPool

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Yield – Highly Prepared Residents

42%40% 41%

39% 37%

33%

37%40%

45%

37%

45%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

SummitResidentYield–3.8HSGPA/1190SAT/ACT

2010through2012=36%yield2013through2015=42%yield

NegativepublicityaroundincidentinvolvingUO

basketball.

ResidentSummitAward:Themodelpredictedanincreasefrom37%to45%(modeled2011population).Bullseye.

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Yield – Summit-Level Nonresidents

14%15% 15% 15%

12%10% 9% 9% 10% 11% 11%

0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

SummitNonresidentYield–3.8HSGPA/1190SAT/ACT

2010through2012=9.5%yield2013through2015=10.4%yield

Broadenedout-of-staterecruitmenteffortsinresponsetorecession.

NonresidentSummitAward:Themodelpredictedanincreasefrom8.6%to11.1%(modeled2011population).Actualwaslowerthananticipated.

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Yield - Apex

16% 16%18% 17%

11%13%

11% 11% 12% 11%13%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

ApexNonresidentYield–3.6HSGPA/1150SAT/ACT 2010through2012=11.6%yield2013through2015=12.3%yield

51%54%

49% 48%51%

41%

49%44%

49% 48%51%

20%25%30%35%40%45%50%55%60%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

ApexResidentYield–3.6HSGPA/1150SAT/ACT 2010through2012=45%yield2013through2015=49%yield

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Pathway Oregon Headcount

415450

395

523 542

703

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

Fall2010 Fall2011 Fall2012 Fall2013 Fall2014 Fall2015

Fall2013wasthefirstyearofthePathwayOregon redesign.FourthweekPathwayOregon enrollmentmaybebelowfinalprogramenrollmentforthecohortduetopendingverificationof

Pelleligibility.UOOfficeofEnrollmentManagement,November30,2015

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$0

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%

DistributionofMeritAwardtoResidentFreshmenIncludesDean,DeanAccess,Summit,andApex,2012vs2013

Resident2012 Resident2013

Distribution of Awards

Percentileofscholarshipamountreceived

Igotnothing…

Fullride!

Amou

ntofScholarshipAidReceived

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Distribution of Merit Awards

$0

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%

DistributionofMeritAwardtoResidentFreshmenIncludesDean,DeanAccess,Summit,andApex,2012vs2013

Resident2012 Resident2013

$1,200à $3,000DeantoApex

$2,000à $5,000DeantoSummit

Total2012Dean’sScholarships:$1.41MTotal2013Summit/Apex:$2.69M

Amou

ntofScholarshipAidReceived

Percentileofscholarshipamountreceived

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Distribution of Merit Awards

$0

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%

DistributionofMeritAwardtoNonresidentFreshmenIncludesDean,DeanAccess,Summit,andApex,2012vs2013

Nonresident2012 Nonresident2013

$5,000à $4,000DeantoApex

$6,000à $8,000DeantoSummit

Total2012Dean’sScholarships:$3.17MTotal2013Summit/Apex:$2.73M

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Distribution of Pathway Awards

$0

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%

DistributionofPathwayAwardtoResidentFreshmen2012vs2013

Resident2012 Resident2013

20%Pway Grant

Total2012FreshmanPathway:$0.64MTotal2013FreshmanPathway:$1.16M

37%PellEligible

26%PathwayOregon

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Distribution of All Awards

$0

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

$30,000

$35,000

100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%

DistributionofGrant/ScholarshipAwardtoResidentFreshmenIncludesFederal,State,andInstitutionAid,2012vs2013

Resident2012 Resident2013

$1,500à $3,000ApexAward

$3,500à $5,600SummitAward

$6,400à $8,800Merit+Need

TotalG

rants/Scho

larships

TotalScholarshipstoResidentFreshmen:2012:$11.4M2013:$13.9M

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Aid Distribution – Pell Eligible

100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

$0

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

DistributionofGrant/ScholarshipAwardtoResidentFreshmenProportionPell-EligibleWithinEachDistributionPoint,2013

ProportionPellEligible Resident2013

37%ofthenewresidentfreshmen(theshadedarea)arePelleligible.

TotalG

rants/Scho

larships

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Aid Distribution – Average Loan

100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%$0

$1,200

$2,400

$3,600

$4,800

$6,000

$0

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

DistributionofGrant/ScholarshipAwardtoResidentFreshmenAverageFirstYearBorrowingWithinEachDistributionPoint,2013

AverageLoanperStudent GrantAidtoResidents

Averageincludesstudentswhoborrowzerodollars(themetricisaverageloansperstudent– NOTaverageloansperborrower).Excludesplusloans.Loanamountisbasedondisbursedloans.

TotalG

rants/Scho

larships

TotalFirstYearB

orrowing

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$13,772$14,699

$15,403 $15,362$14,179

$15,128

$19,831$21,081 $21,752

$23,050$23,957 $24,405

$0

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

$0

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Net Cost of AttendanceNew Residents who Receive Aid, Fall 2009 to Fall 2014

Net Cost Total Cost

In fall 2013 additional need and merit aid were targeted to resident students.Source: University of Oregon IPEDS submission – net price

UO Office of Enrollment Management, November 30, 2015

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Summary

• Experiencedgrowthinhigherabilitystudents• GrowthinPell-eligiblestudentsupportprogram

• Continuallyreviewthesuccessoftheprograms

• Tweakprogramsasnecessarytoaccomplishgoals

• Benefitsofateamapproach

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Questions?

• JimBrooks • JonathanJacobs

Director,EnrollmentManagementResearch

(541)346-7406jsj@uoregon.edu

AssistantVicePresidentforEnrollmentManagementandDirectorofFinancialAid&Scholarships

(541)346-6121brooksja@uoregon.edu

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