Post on 11-Mar-2020
NAFTA Powertrain Outlook Efficiency Driving New Engine and Transmission
Production Opportunities
David Petrovski
Principal Analyst, North America Powertrain Forecasting
April 17, 2013
Copyright © 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 2
Agenda
• Drivers for Change
• Efficiency Opportunities
• Production Opportunities
• Summary
Copyright © 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Evolutionary Change
• Automotive technology development is an evolutionary process,
influenced by:
ENERGY ECONOMICS LEGISLATION/FISCAL POLICY CONSUMER DESIRE/RESPONSE INDUSTRY CAPABILITY
An integrated approach is key – all stakeholder need to act
together to reduce CO2 emissions (infrastructure, public
authorities, consumers, OEMs( as this is the most cost-
efficient way of achieving improvement –Ford
Copyright © 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Global Convergence Drives Scale
4
LEGISLATION/FISCAL POLICY
54.5 MPG
35.5 MPG
Source:
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Relatively “Cheap” fuel in comparison…
5
ENERGY ECONOMICS
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Forecasted Prices Remain Relatively Low
6
Source: IHS CERA – Feb 2013
ENERGY ECONOMICS
~$4/gal
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0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
197
5
197
7
197
9
198
1
198
3
198
5
198
7
198
9
199
1
199
3
199
5
199
7
199
9
200
1
200
3
200
5
200
7
200
9
201
1
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
Ma
rke
t Sh
are
of D
ies
els
an
d H
yb
rids
%
Dis
po
sa
ble
In
co
me
Sp
en
d o
n F
uel
% of Disposable Income Spend on Fuel vs. High Fuel Efficient Vehicles
Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis www.bea.gov
EPA: Fuel Economy Trends
CONSUMER RESPONSE
Will Consumers Accept higher Cost for Efficiency?
• As spending levels increased in recent years, consumers elect to purchase high fuel efficient options
such as hybrids and diesels)
• Technology penetration of diesels and hybrids begins to drop as gasoline prices drop
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Consumer demands continued…
8
“Because future fuel savings are inherently uncertain, consumers will discount them heavily relative to certain initial costs.” (How Consumers Value Fuel Economy: A Literature Review, Oakridge National Lab for EPA, March 24, 2010)
“There are large differences, even among comprehensive, high quality studies, in estimates of the incremental retail price equivalent of technology that achieves major reductions in vehicle fuel consumption.” (National Petroleum Council, Advancing Technology for America’s Transportation Future, August 1, 2012)
“Consumers want fuel efficiency … if it is free. 95% of customers are pragmatic, 5% are green” (Mike Jackson, CEO, Auto Nation, October 7, 2012)
CONSUMER RESPONSE
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Unemployment
rate
Technology
development
Warranty cost and
recall liability Technology
cost
Technology
performance
Midterm review
uncertainty
Fuel price
uncertainty
Consumer
finance
Consumer
demand
Competitive
risk
California
ZEV Mandate
Net Upstream
CO2
Emissions
Industry must weight different risks while trying to comply with new standards
Safety
Competing Priorities?
INDUSTRY CAPABILITIES
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Agenda
• Drivers for Change
• Efficiency Opportunities
• Production Opportunities
• Summary
Copyright © 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Vehicle Energy Loss Review…
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Tremendous Opportunities Exist for Efficiency
Improvements…
12
68%
9%
23%
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Transmission Only Improvement…
13
Ve
hic
le E
ne
rgy
Loss
Standby Idle
Accessories
ICE
Transmission & D/L
Aero
Rolling Resistance
Braking
68%
6%
8%
5%
4%
6%
3%
Pump/Hydraulics
Torque Converter
Drag losses
Seals, bearings, gears
Differential
Variable displ pumps
Low Leak Solenoids
Viscous churning losses
New Fluids
Active Warm-up
Cooling
NOTE: Not mean to be an exhaustive list
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Future Fuel Economy Improvement Devices
14
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Engine
Transmission
Electrification
Total Cost for MY2017
(Direct Manufacturing cost + Indirect cost)
Note)
NHTSA AppendixF-
Draft_Joint_Technical_Support_Document
(2011Nov) and created by IHS
Fuel Economy Improve Ratio and its
cost are basically based on Large Car.
When no data for Large Car, using other
vehicle data. Engine devices are based
on the effect for L4 engine.
US Fuel Economy Improving Device and Cost-1 (MY2017)
P2
Hybrid
Power-split
Hybrid
2-mode
Hybrid
IMA
Hybrid
Diesel
With SCR
V6→L4
Downsizing
Fu
el E
co
no
my Im
pro
ve
Ra
tio
(%
)
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Technology Cost vs. Benefit
0
5
10
15
20
25
Engine
Transmission
Electrification
Total Cost for MY2017
(Direct Manufacturing cost + Indirect cost)
US Fuel Economy Improving Technology and Cost--2 (MY2017)
V6→L4
Downsizing
24bar
With Cooled EGR
24bar
18bar
Stop/Start
(Belt)
Stop/Start
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Aggressive
Shift Logic
4AT→
6DCT(Dry)
High
Efficiency
Gearbox
6AT→8AT
5MT
→6MT
Early Torque
Converter
Lockup
FR1
ICP DVVL SGDI
DEAC
CVVL FR2
DCP
27bar
With Cooled EGR
Fu
el E
co
no
my Im
pro
ve
Ra
tio
(%
)
Copyright © 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 16
Agenda
• Drivers for Change
• Efficiency Opportunities
• Production Opportunities
• Summary
Copyright © 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Powertrain Production Outlook
Engine Output by Country
Mexico
United States
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Mil
lio
ns
Mexico
United States
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Mil
lio
ns
Transmission Output by Country
% S
hare
Me
xic
o
% S
hare
Me
xic
o
Copyright © 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Engine Production Outlook
Output Variance by OEM Δ2020–2012
11.7
15.3
0.5 0.1 0.5 0.8
0.7 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.2
-0.05
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2012 2020
Mill
ion
s
GM 14%
Fiat 12%
Honda 23%
Toyota 19%
R/N 9%
Hyundai 12%
Mazda 6%
Contribution to Growth ‘12-’20
Others
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Transmission Production Outlook
11.8
15.0
0.4 0.6
0.4
0.9 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.6
-0.4
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2012 2020
Mill
ion
s
GM 12%
Ford 18%
Fiat 11% Jatco
25%
Hyundai 7%
ZF 17%
Contribution to Growth ‘12-’20
Output Variance by OEM Δ2020–2012
Others
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MFG PLATFORM SOP PEAK
VOLUME COMMENTS
Fiat SGE TBD TBD Fire replacement?
Hurricane 2015-16 ~500k New 2.0L 4-cylinder turbo engine Pentastar 2015 ~800k Upgrade program for 3.2L/3.6L Duratec HE 2015 ~400k Localize from Valencia,Spain to Cleveland,Ohio
Dragon 2016 TBD Potential 2.4M global, no N.A. production, but could affect SIGMA and DURATEC HE
Nano 2014 ~300k All new small V6 turbo DI, 2.7L/2.9L
SGE 2014 ~700k Global engine program, 2.7M global, 1.0L L3-1.5L L4
HFV6 2016 ~800k Upgrade program for 3.0L/3.6L
New-L (AP2) 2014 ~350k Honda AP3 program cancelled, 1.5L AP2 could benefit
Mazda-Small 2014 ~150k Localized prod. of 1.5L/2.0L in Salamanca,MEX
New 4-cyl 2016 ~250k New 2.0L engine for Mexico, likely turbo + DI
AR 2015-16 ~200k New Turbo + DI version of AR platform, 2.0L GR 2015 ~500k 3.5L V6 Upgrade program adds DI
EA888 2012 ~500k+ 1.8L & 2.0L Turbo, Launched in Silao, expect vol inc.
20
North American Engine Opportunities…
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Detroit 3 Transmission Opportunities…
MFG TYPE PROGRAM DESIGN SOP PEAK VOLUME
FWD 9HP28/48 A9 2013 ~1,6M
RWD 8HP 45 A8 now ~450k
FWD
6F15 A6 TBD ~150k
9F-MID A9 2017 ~1.0M
9F50/55 A9 TBD ~300k
HF35 EVT now ~150k
RWD 10R60/80 A10 2016 ~900k
FWD
GF9 A9 2016 ~1.2M
9T70/75 A9 TBD ~500k
X39F EVT 2015 ~125k
X44F DCT7 2015 ~250k
RWD 8L45/90 A8 2014 ~550k
10L45/90 A10 ~2016/7 ~800k
Localization potential if volumes rise
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Transmission Opportunities…
MFG TYPE PROGRAM DESIGN SOP PEAK VOLUME
FWD
XZXA A10 2016 ~400k
LL-CVT CVT now ~500k
TC-DCT DCT8 ~2016 ~150k
SM-CVT 2nd CVT ~2014 ~500k
FWD
A6GF1 A6 ~2015 ~300k
A8LF2 A8 ~2016 ~350k
A8MF1/2 A8 ~2016 ~400k
RWD 10AT A10 TBD TBD
FWD JF015E CVT ~2015 ~350k
JF016E/17E CVT ~2017 ~1.0M
RWD W9A400/700 A9 2016 ~200k
FWD
New K311 CVT TBD ~375k
G001 A8 ~2015 ~1.0M
RWD TL-80SN A8 TBD ~100K
Localization potential if volumes rise
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Transmission Opportunities…
MFG TYPE PROGRAM DESIGN SOP PEAK
FWD FW6A A6 TBD ~200k
FWD DQ200? DQ250? DCT7 TBD TBD
FWD 9HP48 (EP2) A9 ~2013/14 ~800k
RWD 8HP 70 A8 now ~400k
Localization potential if volumes rise
Copyright © 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 24
Agenda
• Drivers for Change
• Efficiency Opportunities
• Production Opportunities
• Summary
Copyright © 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Summary
• Energy security (fuel efficiency) and environmental (clean air) legislation
provide unprecedented drivers for change
• Entire vehicle system optimization needs to be the focus to meet
increasing stringent fuel economy and emissions standards
• Light weighting has a compounding effect
• The “sweet spot:” Optimal powertrains will balance engine and transmission flexibility
• Various degrees of hybridization from start-stop through battery electric vehicles
• Modularity; Parts integration and system cost reductions
• Consistent growth in North America vehicle production predicated on
strong utilization, co-location of output to offset risk and exports
• Overall engine and transmission production volumes to return to robust levels driven
by localization
• Numerous new opportunities exist as technology proliferates the engine and
transmission portfolio
25
Thank You for Your Participation!
David Petrovski
Principal Analyst, North America Powertrain Forecasting
IHS Automotive
david.petrovski@ihs.com
248-465-2828