Post on 27-Mar-2015
Mr. Li Ruogu
Chairman and President of China Eximbank
27 March 2012
The Relationship Between Exchange Rates and International Trade
Outline
2
Complicated Relationship between Exchange Rates and Foreign Trade
Exchange Rates Levels and Trade Imbalances
Exchange Rate Volatility and Foreign Trade
The Causes of High Exchange Rate Volatility
3
Nominal
Exchange Rate Volatility
Nominal Effective Exchange
Rate Volatility
Real Effective Exchange
Rate Volatility
Average Annual Growth
Rate of Exports
Average Annual Growth Rate of
Imports
1995-2011
Brazil 4.2 4.0 4.0 6.1 8.4
China 0.3 1.3 2.0 17.8 15.6
India 1.6 1.5 1.6 14.1 13.2
Russia 6.1 6.1 5.3 6.2 10.6
2005-2011
Brazil 3.7 3.2 3.1 3.7 14.5
China 0.4 1.3 1.9 15.6 11.9
India 2.0 1.6 1.7 13.1 15.7
Russia 2.8 2.1 4.1 3.8 12.4
Sources: IMF, BIS, World Bank WDI.
Exchange Rate Volatility and Trade Growth Rate (%)
4
Sources: Bloomberg1.Bilateral exchange rates against the U.S. dollar (increase denotes depreciation)
Exchange Rate Indices, Jan 2010=100
5
Sources: IMF WEO Database
G20: Savings and Current Account
2001-2010 Average
Thank you!