Post on 01-Apr-2015
Module 1 - Introduction 1
PROJECT MANAGEMENTPresented by:
John Rakos, MSc, PMPPresident, John J. Rakos & Associates Consultants Ltd.
John J. Rakos is available to teach or consult in any topic presented in this
seminar.
Module 1 - Introduction 2
INTRODUCTION
Reference sources
A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge (2003). The
Project Management Institute. http://www.pmi.org
Rakos, John J. et al, A Practical Guide to Project Management
Documentation, Wiley, 2004
Kerzner, Harold. Project Management: A Systems Approach to Planning,
Scheduling and Controlling. 6th ed. John Wiley & Sons, 1998.
Rakos, John J. Software Project Management for Small to Medium Sized
Projects. Prentice-Hall, 1990.
Module 1 - Introduction 3
INTRODUCTION
The Value of Project Management
• Allows for excellent organization and tracking
• Better control and use of resources
• Reduces complexity of inter-related tasks
• Allows measurement of outcome versus plans
• Early identification of problems and quick correction
Module 1 - Introduction 4
INTRODUCTION
PMBOKTM Knowledge Areas
• Based on the Project Management Institute’s Project Management Body of Knowledge: PMBOK1
• Nine knowledge areas:– This webinar:
Scope, Time, Cost, Risk, Integration -- Next webinar:
Quality, Procurement, Communications,
Human Resources, Integration
Module 1 - Introduction 5
INTRODUCTION
PMP Certification
Internationally accepted accreditation
Get certification3 (5 without degree) years experience35 hours training4 hour, 200 questions, multiple choice exam!
Have to be re-certified every 3 years60 PDUs
Attending a conference Attending course PMI membership Publications PM work
Module 1 - Introduction 6
INTRODUCTION
What is a Project?
A project is a temporary endeavor undertaken to create a unique product or service- A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK™), Project Management Institute, 2003
One time Limited funds/time Specific resources utilized Performed by people - Single or multi-person team Planned, controlled Specific Deliverables
Module 1 - Introduction 7
INTRODUCTION
The Triple Constraint of Projects• On Time, Budget, Quality = Required Scope
Time
Cost Quality
•Integration•Trade – Off’s
Module 1 - Introduction 8
Project Life Cycle
INTRODUCTION
5%
20% 60%
15%
Concept Planning Execution/Control Closing
Percentages and graph refer to the amount of effort (people) In IT projects = 90-95% of cost!
Definition | Analysis |Design|Build|Test|Accept| Implement| Operation
Module 1 - Introduction 9
Write a Plan Containing1. Steps required to accomplish the project objectives2. Tasks needed to be done at each step (using Work Breakdown
Structures)3. Estimate of how much effort each task requires4. The resources required for each task5. (Given 3. and 4.) Calculation of how long each task/step will take6. (Given 4. and 5.) Calculation of task, step and project costs7. The inter-dependencies of tasks8. The schedule for each task and the whole project (Milstones,
Deliverables, payments)
Project Planning
Module 1 - Introduction 10
Stakeholders
Project Sponsor
Project Leader
Project Manager
FinanceProcure-
mentSystems
EngineeringSupport Sales Maintenance
IM/IT
UsersContractors
Project Planning: set expectations of Stakeholders
Module 1 - Introduction 11
Project Planning: Time and Cost Estimate
• Iterative
• Accuracy– Estimates become more accurate
Preliminary Plan Final Plan
0
+25%
-75%
+15
-50
+10
-25
Initiation Planning Execution Closing
Definition Analysis Design
Proposal Plan Revised Plan
Module 1 - Introduction 12
Project Management
Module 2:
Scope Management
Module 1 - Introduction 13
Project Scope Planning
Scope Management
• Ensuring that the project includes all the work required, only the work required.
• Dividing the work into major pieces, then subdividing into smaller, more manageable pieces.
Module 1 - Introduction 14
Work Breakdown Structure - Formats
1. Organization Chart Method
0. Title
1. Major Phase 1
1.1Section 1 of Phase 1
2. Major Phase 2
3. Major Phase 3
1.2Section 2 of Phase 1
1.3Section 3 of Phase 1
Module 1 - Introduction 15
2. Outline Method
0. TITLE
1. MAJOR PHASE 1
1.1 S1 OF PHASE1
1.2 S2 OF PHASE1
1.3 S3 OF PHASE1
2. MAJOR PHASE 2
...
etc.
Work Breakdown Structure - Formats
Module 1 - Introduction 16
WBS - Typical Tasks
Detailed WBS Example for procuring an
Equipment System
Module 1 - Introduction 17
Summary (Top Level) WBS
Work Breakdown Structure
Summary and Detail tasks, or
Parent and Child tasks (Work Package)
Module 1 - Introduction 18
Using the Work Breakdown Structure
1. Estimate and schedule the work (Durations, precedences on WBS)2. Organize and schedule resources (resource allocated WBS)3. Assign responsibilities – (Resource ramp-up, resource allocated
WBS)4. Estimate and allocate costs and budgets (costed WBS)5. Add up costs to different levels
– Task– Levels on the WBS (phase, account/contract)– Cost account– Total project
6. Get resource commitments7. Schedule start <--> end dates8. Track expenditures, schedules and performance
Work Breakdown Structure
Module 1 - Introduction 19
Project Management
Module 3:
Project Time Planning
Module 1 - Introduction 20
Project Time Planning
Estimating Effort: 3 Methods
1. Professional Judgment
– “Expert” picks a number (out of the air!)
– Requires an expert
– Requires experience
– Good memory
– May ignore people
– VERY RELIABLE FOR THEMSELVES
Module 1 - Introduction 21
Estimating Efforts (cont’d)
2. History– Look at tables of past actuals on major tasks– Interpolate– Requires professional judgment– Requires good history (which changes!)
3. Formula3.1 Variables
– Determine major variable factors (task, person)– Using measurement determine formula of factors– Interview and plug into formula
Project Time Planning
Module 1 - Introduction 22
Estimating Efforts (cont’d)
3.2 Function Points– Determine smallest pieces (function points) of project.– Using measurement establish time for each one.– For new project, break into function points; add up
times, then multiply for worker productivity.
(Possibly: Junior x 2, Average x 1, Senior x 0.5)
• FORMULA IS BEST (IN THEORY).
• IN REALITY,____________ BEST.
Project Time Planning
Module 1 - Introduction 23
Estimating – use of History
Ratios for Systems project
SYSTEMS ACTIVITIES DUR EFFORT
SYSTEM SPECIFICATIONS 11-15% 6-10%SYSTEM DESIGN 8-12% 6-10%SOFTWARE REQUREMENTS 2-4% 3-5%SOFTWARE PRELIMINARY DESIGN 5-7% 4-6%SOFTWARE DETAILED DESIGN 8-11% 9-12%CODE AND UNIT TEST 20-28% 24-32%SOFTWARE INTEGRATION & TEST 10-14% 11-15%SOFTWARE QUALIFICATION 5-7% 2-4%SYTEM INTEGRATION & QUAL. 8-12% 8-12%WARRANTY AND SUPPORT N/A 7-10%
MAKE YOUR OWN BASED ON THE MAJOR PHASES/PIECES!
Module 1 - Introduction 24
If Estimate was Effort, must convert it to Duration
Duration = Effort/Resources (sometimes)
Taking into account:Resource availability
DesireSkill
Productivity
Scheduling
Module 1 - Introduction 25
Scheduling: Requires Duration and Precedents
Two Graphical tools for Scheduling:
1. PERT Chart
Plan (from WBS)
Task Precedent DurationA - 7dB A 3d C - 10dD C 5dE - 4dF E 6dG F 3d
Module 1 - Introduction 26
Ordering the Activities: PERT Chart
Arrow Diagramming Method (ADM)
Scheduling
1
2
3
4 5
6
A
C
E
B
D
F
G
7d3d
4d
6d
3d
10d 5d
Module 1 - Introduction 27
Scheduling - Gantt Chart
Order of building the Gantt Chart:• Work Breakdown• Estimates (duration)• Dependencies• Resource use
Gantt shows:• Critical Path• Non Critical Path(s)• Early Start/Finish• Late Start/Finish• Slack
Module 1 - Introduction 28
Scheduling - Gantt Chart
Module 1 - Introduction 29
Gantt (Schedule) Drives
1. Milestones• Clear, concrete, binary events implying progress• For example: Review (with approval), Sign off of a deliverable,
Funds approved• Shown as 0 length task
– Try for even frequency• Not too close• Not more than 2 - 3 months apart
– Major Point to communicate with• Client• Outside world• Management
Scheduling - Gantt Chart
Module 1 - Introduction 30
Gantt (Schedule) Drives
• Training
• Meetings
• Reviews
• Reports
• Site preparation
• Delivery dates (date to order) for external items
• Payment
Scheduling - Gantt Chart
Module 1 - Introduction 31
Project Management
Module 4:
Resource Assignment
and Cost Planning
Module 1 - Introduction 32
Availability Skills
• More experienced people• Less experienced people
Desire Similar tasks to one person to use learning curve Assign critical tasks to most reliable people Tasks that need interaction or are similar
• Same person• Two who communicate
Personality and team communication does matter and again, Availability
Assigning Resources
Module 1 - Introduction 33
Resource Loading and Optimizing
Gantt with Resource Histogram
Module 1 - Introduction 34
Resource leveling - possible rescheduling
Gantt with Resource Histogram
Manual resource leveling: fast vs good vs cheap
Automatic resource leveling: use only as ‘suggestion’
Module 1 - Introduction 35
Cost Estimating
• Similar to Time Estimating (usually done by the same person/group that does the Time Estimates)
Calculation of Cost for each WP: Example:If estimate was duration 10 daysAssign human resources 2 people
Need Effort = Duration x Resources E=2x10=20pd
e.g., Resource Cost (RC) = Effort x Rate(includes overhead)
RC=20x$1,000=$20,000
(Possible) Plus Fixed Cost (FC)
e.g., FC = $5,000
Total cost (TC) = Resource cost + Fixed Cost
TC=20,000 + 5,000 = 25,000
Module 1 - Introduction 36
Costed WBS
Use Software to roll costs up the WBS
Module 1 - Introduction 37
Cost Ramp-Up
$100,000.00
$200,000.00
$300,000.00
$400,000.00
Cumulative Cost:
Filtered resources Total:
CPM Total:
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q11997 1998
$53,920.00 $127,160.00 $274,360.00 $331,440.00 $349,920.00 $368,400.00 $376,500.00 $376,500.00
Use Software to report cash flow
Module 1 - Introduction 38
Cost - Sanity checks
Cost Estimate Error Range – same as Time Estimate
0
+75%
-25%
25
-10
10
-8
Indicative PPAInit Plan
Budget EPAFinal Plan
Definitive PDRDesign
PPA - Preliminary Project ApprovalEPA - EffectivePDR - Preliminary Design Review
Module 1 - Introduction 39
Project Management
Module 5:
Risk Management
Module 1 - Introduction 40
Risk Management
Planning and Control Processes
• Risk: anything not in the project plan that may occur and cause your project to be late, cost more or compromise its quality/performance.
• Risk is an opportunity as well as a threat:
“You don’t put power brakes on a car to slow it down - you do so to allow it to go faster.”
-Mark Davies, KPMG
• We will concentrate on the threat.
Module 1 - Introduction 41
Four Steps of Risk Management
1. Identification– Anticipate the risk– List the risks, event triggers, symptoms
2. Analysis– Evaluate probability, impact– Qualitative vs Quantitative
3. Risk Response– Strategy Development to mitigate the risk:
• Eliminate the risk or reduce impact• Contingency planning
4. Risk Control– Monitor– Update lists, strategies– Action the contingency plan– Fight the firesWhich is most important??
Module 1 - Introduction 42
Step 1: Risk Identification
Anticipate the Risk
Risk Checklist at Preliminary Planning Time (Risk Taxonomy)
Are we proposing the right solution? Any risk in technical components? Performance expectations reasonable? Is the hardware standard? How much experience do we have with it? Is the operating software standard? Well documented? How much experience do we have with it? Is the development method standard? Well documented? How much experience do we have with it? Any component availability risks?
Module 1 - Introduction 43
Step 1: Risk Identification
Risk Checklist at Preliminary Planning Time (Risk Taxonomy)(cont’d)
Does failure of this application affect the customer’s business? Is the project over 6 months? 12 months? 24 months? Does it need over 5 people? Are we dependent on third party resources? Internal? External? Who is the project manager? Who is the project leader/architect? Are the resources available when needed? Who is the client? Have we worked with this client? How is our relationship? Is client available when needed?
Module 1 - Introduction 44
Step 1: Risk Identification: Inputs
PROJECT/PM
ECONOMIC
& FINANCIAL
NATURALENVIRONMENTS
CORPORATEPROGRAMS
CORPORATEPOLICY
AND CULTURE
TECHNOLOGY
SENIORMANAGEMENT
POLITICAL
REGULATORYAND LEGAL
HUMAN FACTORSHEALTH & SAFETY
• Risk Checklists, The WBS, Environment:
History of past Similar Projects
Module 1 - Introduction 45
Step 2: Risk Analysis
Evaluate Probability and Impact into three levels: Low, Medium, High:
Probability Criteria:
Probability Rank Description
High
Medium
Low
Greater than 66% probability of occurring
34 to 65% probability of occurring
Less than 33% probability of occurring
Module 1 - Introduction 46
Step 2: Risk Analysis
Impact Criteria:
Impact Rank Description
High
Medium
Low
Could add more than 25% to the project budget
Could add between 10 and 25% to the project budget
Could add less than 10% to the project budget
High
Medium
Low
Schedule
Cost
Quality
Could add over 25% delay to the completion of the project
Could add over 10% delay to the completion of the project
Could add less than 10% delay to the completion of the project, or delays a non critical deliverable
Determine a combined impact level based on which constraint is most affected.
Module 1 - Introduction 47
Step 2: Risk Analysis
Draw a Risk Table to SummarizeWonderful Management Tool/Report
Prob.Impact
High
Medium
Low
HighMediumLow
3. Lack of skilled staff, organization slow to hire adequate staff; may delay implementation.
2. Time estimate and funds inadequate for the scope of this project; may be late and over budget.
1. Lack of commitment. Headquarters may have to assume more responsibility; will result in project delay, cost overruns.
6. Cannot get office space for staff; may cause communication problems, delaying the execution phase.
5. Expecting major scope changes from clients; may cause delay and cost escalation.
4. Not enough time spent planning, lack of understanding of problem; may take longer/cost more than anticipated.
Module 1 - Introduction 48
Step 3: Risk Response
Strategy Development:
Reduce the Probability and/or Impact of the Risk
Risk Mitigation: Reducing the probability and/or impact
• Take immediate action. Can be risk avoidance (if eliminated) or risk reduction (still there, but probability or impact is reduced).
Contingency Plans
• Take action only when the risk is imminent or has occurred
Or Acceptance (do nothing), depends on Risk Tolerance
Module 1 - Introduction 49
Risk as a Monetary Value
Tempering the Estimate
• Estimate range is
– ESTIMATE ESTIMATE + RISK– Try to work within the range, depending on how crucial
the accuracy has to be.
• If you can get several estimates– Use the Standard Deviations to give you confidence
levels:• Expected estimate +/- 1 SD gives you 68% confidence• Expected estimate +/- 2 SD gives you 95% confidence• Expected estimate +/- 3 SD gives you 99% confidence
Module 1 - Introduction 50
Project Management
Module 6:
Scope/ Time/ Cost Control
Module 1 - Introduction 51
Project Control – Scope Control
Scope Change Control• Formal change control• Evaluate cost/time impact
– Renegotiate, set expectations
– Implement or defer to next release
Configuration Management• Keep track of what changes were made to which
modules
• Versioning
• Interoperability of modules
Module 1 - Introduction 52
Project Control – Schedule and Cost
Step 1 - Take a baseline.
• Baseline plan: a copy of the plan (WBS with all dates, assignments, costs).
• Used to report progress against the baseline.
• Taken at a mutually agreed upon planning point:
• Proposal or Analysis completion
• +25% to -10% stage
• Baseline is (theoretically) not alterable
• Unless major scope change occurs.
Module 1 - Introduction 53
Project Control – Reporting Schedule using a Tracking Gantt
Double Gantt: Shows Project Schedule Progress vs baseline
ID Task Name Duration Start
1 Session 7 - write Pm course 101.4 days '99 Sep 01
2 Initiation 8.4 days '99 Sep 01
3 Interview client 3 days '99 Sep 01
4 Write Proj Concept 2 days '99 Sep 09
5 Concept approved 0 days '99 Sep 10
6 Planning 8 days '99 Sep 10
7 Interview users 5 days '99 Sep 10
8 Interview managers 5 days '99 Sep 10
9 Write plan 3 days '99 Sep 17
10 Funds approved 0 days '99 Sep 22
11 Development 61 days '99 Sep 22
12 Design 23 days '99 Sep 22
13 Design coursware 10 days '99 Sep 22
14 Design Case study 10 days '99 Oct 05
15 Walk through design 1 day '99 Oct 19
16 Revise design 2 days '99 Oct 20
17 Design done 0 days '99 Oct 21
99%
100%
100%
09-10
0%
0%
0%
0%
09-22
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
10-21
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
11-09
0%
31 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 02 05 08 11 14 17 20September October November
Module 1 - Introduction 54
Project Control – Cost Control/Reporting
Financial Report vs BaselineID Task Name Fixed Cost Total Cost Baseline Variance
1 Session 7 - write Pm course $0.00 $74,920.00 $74,120.00 $800.00
2 Initiation $0.00 $5,280.00 $4,480.00 $800.00
3 Interview client $0.00 $2,400.00 $2,400.00 $0.00
4 Write Proj Concept $0.00 $2,880.00 $2,080.00 $800.00
5 Concept approved $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
6 Planning $0.00 $12,320.00 $12,320.00 $0.00
7 Interview users $0.00 $5,200.00 $5,200.00 $0.00
8 Interview managers $0.00 $4,000.00 $4,000.00 $0.00
9 Write plan $0.00 $3,120.00 $3,120.00 $0.00
10 Funds approved $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
11 Development $0.00 $52,800.00 $52,800.00 $0.00
12 Design $0.00 $28,040.00 $28,040.00 $0.00
13 Design coursware $0.00 $12,400.00 $12,400.00 $0.00
14 Design Case study $0.00 $12,400.00 $12,400.00 $0.00
15 Walk through design $0.00 $2,040.00 $2,040.00 $0.00
16 Revise design $0.00 $1,200.00 $1,200.00 $0.00
17 Design done $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
18 Write Course $0.00 $21,880.00 $21,880.00 $0.00
7%
99%
100%
100%
09-13
0%
0%
0%
0%
09-23
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
10-26
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
11-12
0%
0%
11-16
0%
0%
0%
12-17
29 05 12 19 26 03 10 17 24 31 07 14 21 28 05 12 19 26 02 09 16 23September October November December January
Module 1 - Introduction 55
Project Management
Module 7:
Conclusions
Module 1 - Introduction 56
Resources Available
To help you Manage your Projects
• Training & Learning
– Universities• Project Management courses• Major/Masters in Project• Others – public
• Project Management Institute (PMI)• PMP Certification courses• PMI conferences• 250,000 members worldwide
• Your own Subject Matter Experts
Module 1 - Introduction 57
Resources Available
To help you Manage your Projects
• Training & Learning– Internet
• PMI.org• Many sites: search on Project Management • NASA• Software Engineering Institute• Software Productivity Center• DOD/Pentagon
• Project Management Software (WBS, Schedule, Cost, Resource usage, Multiple project roll-up, Internet reporting,...)
– Microsoft Project– Primavera– Open source: OpenProj
• John J. Rakos is available to teach or consult in any topic presented in this seminar.
Module 1 - Introduction 58
Final Details
Can you be a good project manager?
Ask yourself:
• Can I say 'NO'?
– Can I attack problems as soon as/even before they arise?
• Can I live unloved?
If you do your job well,people will wonder what you do!