Post on 13-Apr-2017
ModellingUKDigitalCommunica3ons
IntroductoryOverview
EdwardOughtonResearchAssociatee.oughton@jbs.cam.ac.uk
ThreeKeyAims
Currentapproach
Data
Required analytics and applications
OurSharedAmbi3on
Totransforminfrastructureinvestmentdecision-making
MISTRAL:Mul3-scaleInfraSTRucturesystemsAnaLy3cs
ModellingandAnalysisofUKandGlobalInfrastructureTransi9ons
Energy|Transport|DigitalCommunica9ons|Water|Waste
Consor9umLeader–ProfessorJimHall(Oxford)
• SupportfromEPSRC~£5million
• Universitycontribu3ons~£1million
• Industrycontribu3ons~£2million
ProfessorPeterTyler
DrDavidCleevely
DrEdwardOughton
Oursponsorsandpartners:
TheCambridgeDigitalCommunica3onsTeam
TheCambridgeCommunica3onsAssessmentModel
Scenarios
CoverageandCapacityData
NetworkModels
VisualisedSpa9alRollout
CapexandOpexInforma9on
NetworkPerformanceMetrics
Strategies
InfrastructureViability
1)Capacity-demandand2)risk,vulnerabilityandresilience
GeneralModellingApproach:‘Geotyping’
London Ci3es
Suburbia Rural
Geotypes:Similardemandandnetworkproper>es
GeotypesDrivenbyDemographicScenarios…
Capturespopula>onandpremiseschangeover>me
GeotypesDrivenbyDemographicScenarios…
Capturespopula>onandpremiseschangeover>me
GeotypesDrivenbyDemographicScenarios…
Capturespopula>onandpremiseschangeover>me
TechnologyDeploymentStrategies
3-SectoredMacrocellTower FTTdp/FTTH/FTTPDeployment
SmallCellDeployment SatelliteDeployment
Networkdimensioning:(i)Fixedand(ii)mobile/wireless
NetworkModels
Es>ma>ngthenetworkstructuretoimprovecostes>mates
NetworkModels
Es>ma>ngthenetworkstructuretoimprovecostes>mates
NetworkModels
Es>ma>ngthenetworkstructuretoimprovecostes>mates
NetworkModels
Es>ma>ngthenetworkstructuretoimprovecostes>mates
NetworkModels
Es>ma>ngthenetworkstructuretoimprovecostes>mates
NetworkModels
Es>ma>ngthenetworkstructuretoimprovecostes>mates
NetworkModels
Es>ma>ngthenetworkstructuretoimprovecostes>mates
NetworkModels
Mobileassetscanberoutedintothissynthe>cfixednetwork
InfrastructureDeploymentCostsUnitcostsofdeployment
InfrastructureDeploymentCostsUnitcostsofdeployment Temporalcosttrends
InfrastructureDeploymentCostsUnitcostsofdeployment Temporalcosttrends
Capex,opexandTotalCostofOwnership
InfrastructureViability
Thisinforma>ondirectstherolloutstrategies
TechnologyAdop3onRate
InfrastructureViability
Thisinforma>ondirectstherolloutstrategies
TechnologyAdop3onRate
BehaviouralDeploymentStrategies
Bestrevenuegenera3onfirst?
Highestgrowthpoten3alfirst?
Mosteasytodeployfirst
Tes>ngdifferentrolloutstrategies
VisualisedSpa3alRollout
Examinetheperformanceofinfrastructureover>me
Baseline50Mbpsrollout,2x2networks
Ubiquitous10Mbpsrollout,2x2networks Baseline50Mbps
VisualisedSpa3alRollout
www.thinkbroadband.com
ModellingApproach
Geotypesegmenta9on
Deployedassettechnology- Exchange- Cabinet- Basesta3on
Postcodesectors- Popula3on- Area- SiteDensity
Dataandscenarios
ModellingApproach
TechnologyDeploymentStrategies
Geotypesegmenta9on
Deployedassettechnology- Exchange- Cabinet- Basesta3on
Postcodesectors- Popula3on- Area- SiteDensity
G.fastFTTdp-Street/
FTTdp-Building
Technicalinputs- Networkconfigura3on- Technology
performance- Distanceinforma3on- Propaga3onmodel- Overbookingfactor
FTTH/FTTP
Spectrumintegra9on
Networkdensifica9on
Spectralefficiencygains
Dataandscenarios
ModellingApproach
TechnologyDeploymentStrategies
Geotypesegmenta9on
Deployedassettechnology- Exchange- Cabinet- Basesta3on
Postcodesectors- Popula3on- Area- SiteDensity
G.fastFTTdp-Street/
FTTdp-Building
Technicalinputs- Networkconfigura3on- Technology
performance- Distanceinforma3on- Propaga3onmodel- Overbookingfactor
Costmodel
- Investmentcostsbypremises,postcodesector,LA,region,urban/rural
Assetcosts- Unitcosts- Timetrends- Capex,OpexandTotal
CostofOwnership
FTTH/FTTP
Spectrumintegra9on
Networkdensifica9on
Spectralefficiencygains
Dataandscenarios
ModellingApproach
TechnologyDeploymentStrategies
Geotypesegmenta9on
Deployedassettechnology- Exchange- Cabinet- Basesta3on
Postcodesectors- Popula3on- Area- SiteDensity
G.fastFTTdp-Street/
FTTdp-Building
ExploratoryParameters
Annualcapitalintensity
Technicalinputs- Networkconfigura3on- Technology
performance- Distanceinforma3on- Propaga3onmodel- Overbookingfactor
Costmodel
- Investmentcostsbypremises,postcodesector,LA,region,urban/rural
Assetcosts- Unitcosts- Timetrends- Capex,OpexandTotal
CostofOwnership
Co-investmentAgreements
End-userspeedFTTH/FTTP
Spectrumintegra9on
Networkdensifica9on
SpectralefficiencygainsInfrastructuresharing
Dataandscenarios
‘What-if’?
Coverageobliga3onsUniversalServiceObliga3on
Demand-sides3mulusPublic-sectorfibredeployment
Radicalspectrumreform
ModellingApproach
TechnologyDeploymentStrategies
Geotypesegmenta9on
Deployedassettechnology- Exchange- Cabinet- Basesta3on
Postcodesectors- Popula3on- Area- SiteDensity
G.fastFTTdp-Street/
FTTdp-Building
ExploratoryParameters
Annualcapitalintensity
Technicalinputs- Networkconfigura3on- Technology
performance- Distanceinforma3on- Propaga3onmodel- Overbookingfactor
Costmodel
- Investmentcostsbypremises,postcodesector,LA,region,urban/rural
Results
Spa9al,temporalandeconomicbreakdownofresults
Assetcosts- Unitcosts- Timetrends- Capex,OpexandTotal
CostofOwnership
Co-investmentAgreements
End-userspeedFTTH/FTTP
Spectrumintegra9on
Networkdensifica9on
SpectralefficiencygainsInfrastructuresharing
Dataandscenarios
Coverage Capacity Energydemand
‘What-if’?
Coverageobliga3onsUniversalServiceObliga3on
Demand-sides3mulusPublic-sectorfibredeployment
Radicalspectrumreform
Interdependencies
Data
Wecoulddomoreresearchwithmoredata!
RequiredAnaly3csandApplica3ons
Whatanaly3csarerequiredandbywhom?
RequiredAnaly3csandApplica3ons
Whatanaly3csarerequiredandbywhom?
ThreeKeyAims
Currentapproach
Data
Required analytics and applications
Ques3ons
1. Arewetakingtherightapproach?2. Arewemissinganything?3. Canyouhelpwithdata?4. Whatanaly3csareactuallyrequired?5. Whomightusethisresearch?6. Wouldyourorganisa3onbeinterestedinpartnering?
Contact:EdwardOughtone.oughton@jbs.cam.ac.uk