Missouri Basin Climate Outlook January 2012

John S. EiseClimate Services Program ManagerDeputy Chief, Scientific Services DivisionCentral Region HeadquartersJanuary 24, 2011John. Eise@noaa.gov816-268-3144

Gavins Point Dam – July 2011

Current Conditions Less snow than last year in plains and mountains Warmer conditions than last year La Nina conditions still exist – different manifestation

Predictions Slightly better chances of cooler over mountains Slightly better chances of wetter conditions mountains-

plains Arctic Oscillation leaning cooler through end of January,

then neutral – La Nina continues through spring Caveat

Approaching the midpoint of the snow season- still a significant amount of the snow season left.

Key Points

Typical US Temperature, Precipitation and Jet Stream Patterns during La Niña Winters

Warm Phase of AO

Cold Phase of AO

8

The Arctic Oscillation and Winter Impacts over the U.S.

Influences the number and intensity of weather events (including extremes)

A Winter “Wildcard”:

No capability to forecast beyond a week or two.

Soil Moisture Comparison Current Dec. 2011 Jan. 2011

http://www.hydro.washington.edu/forecast/monitor/curr/conus.mexico/main_sm.multimodel.shtml

Mountain Snow Comparison2012 (left) vs 2011 (right)

http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/cgibin/water/drought/wdr.pl

January 18th, 2012

Northern Basin Snow Water Equivalent Comparison

December 14th, 2011

http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/nsa/

Current vs. last month

January 18th, 2012

Northern Basin Snow Water Equivalent Comparison

January 18th, 2011

http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/nsa/

Current vs. last year

Missouri River Snow Pack

http://www.nwd-mr.usace.army.mil/rcc/reports/snow.pdf

Precipitation ComparisonDeparture from Normal Since October 1

2012 2011http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/maps/current/

Temperature ComparisonDeparture from Normal Since October 1

2011-12 2010-11

http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/maps/current/

2 weeks out (8-14 days) February 3 Months (February – March – April) 3 Months (March – April – May) 3 Months (April – May – June) www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov

Climate Outlooks

http://ggweather.com/loops/ncep_loops.htm /

PrecipitationRest of January

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day/

February Temperature and Precipitation Probabilities

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day/

February Temperature and Precipitation Probabilities

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=1

3 Month Temperature and Precipitation Probabilities

(February –March - April)

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=2

3 Month Temperature and Precipitation Probabilities

(March – April - May)

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=3

3 Month Temperature and Precipitation Probabilities

(April – May - June)

Climate Situational Awareness Pagehttp://www.crh.noaa.gov/bis/?n=climate_sa

NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center: www.ncdc.noaa.gov

Monthly climate reports (U.S. & Global): www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/

• NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center: www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov

• Climate Portal: www.climate.gov

• U.S. Drought Monitor: www.drought.gov

• NRCS National Water & Climate Center: http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/

• USGS WaterWatch: http://waterwatch.usgs.gov/new/

Further Information

Thank You and Questions?

John Eisejohn.eise@noaa.gov

816-268-3144

Thanks to Dennis Todey and Doug Kluck

Typical La Nina BehaviorDec-Jan-Feb &Jan-Feb-Mar

Temperature Precipitation Snow

Current El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Status

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La NiñaConditions Continue(1/20/11)

January ENSO Outlook

IRI/CPC Compiled El Nino SouthernOscillationStatistical and Dynamical Models

Predictions of what could happen to the El Nino – La Nina cycle over the next year

Typical US Temperature, Precipitation and Jet Stream Patterns during La Niña Winters