Missing Persons: Missing Persons: Practitioner Research to Practitioner Research to

National PracticeNational Practice

SIPR Annual Conference 2010

Dr Penny S. Woolnough CPsychol FRSA

Missing Persons: Missing Persons: Practitioner Research to Practitioner Research to

National PracticeNational Practice

SIPR Annual Conference 2010

Dr Penny S. Woolnough CPsychol FRSA

Open any newspaper in any country

on any day of the week....

What is a missing person? Someone who doesn’t come home? Someone who doesn’t turn up at an expected

time / location?

Do they themselves know they are missing? In whose mind are they missing?

Lost vs. MissingEncompasses a wide variety of circumstances

What happens to them - outcomes?

Majority - Located or turn up safe

Minority - Accident

Abduction

Homicide

Attempted Suicide

Completed Suicide

What is the extent of the problem?

How many people are reported missing?

UK ‘Missing People’ Charity estimates 300,000+

Average of 822 per day

16 per police force each day

34 every hour

Need for an intelligence-led approach:

Little information / guidance for front line officers Supervisors have minimal guidance on how to

risk assess Resource management can be unfocused and

directionless Need specialist training for PolSA’s An absence of general intelligence prevents

some incidents being declared critical at an early stage

Senior officers lack a solid evidence-base against which to defend decisions

But, how do we know if we are dealing with a ‘normal’ missing person….

....or something more serious?

Risk Assessment Clinical Risk Assessment:

Expert decision making / Often unreliable / used by police at present / dependent on experience / knowledge.

Actuarial Risk Assessment:

Uses data to look at the probability of risk / but draws on historical data - there is always the exception which does not fit data!

Programme of Research

Content analysis of 2200 closed missing person cases from across the UK over a seven year period

Content analysis of approx 300 suicide / undetermined deaths

Introduction of detailed cancellation procedure (ongoing SIPR funded)

2 databases (general missing persons & suicides)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58 61 64 67 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91

Age of missing person

Num

ber

of c

ases

Age range of full databaseAge range of full database

3 Key Factors

TIME

DISTANCELOCATION

1.20k (90%)

1.00k (80%)

0.60k (70%)

0.40k (50%)

0.16k (30%)

Place Missing From

Missing 1–4 year olds

Missing 8 year old girl1804 hrs mother reported her daughter

had not come home from School. It was dark, very cold and snowing

heavily.

Home

School

The data suggest 8 year old girls missing from schoolwill be found within 1km kilometre of the schoolwalking in the street!

1000 mCircle

Place Missing From - School

PlaceFound

850 m

Priority Curve

Missing boys aged 9 – 13 years

Child reported missing – 3pm

Time

Priority Curve

Missing boys aged 9 – 13 years

2hrs. 40min (50% - 17:40)into the missing episode

Priority Curve

Missing boys aged 9 – 13 years

6hrs. 40min (70% - 21:40) into the missing episode

Priority Curve

Missing boys aged 9 – 13 years

21hrs. 40min. into the missing episode

90%

If the missing person is not found at the ‘probable’ places it can quickly be concluded that the case is certainly out of the ordinary........

..........suicide...abduction...murder?

Suspicious missing persons...

No body…..

Accident

Suicide

Homicide?

Benefits of an Actuarial Approach - Operational

Helps quickly identify cases out of the ordinary

Facilitates early warning and involvement of Detective officers

Allows us to use appropriate investigative techniques

Facilitate decision making re. Child Rescue Alert

Benefits of an Actuarial Approach – Politics

Informs policy log

Provides an evidence base

More defensible actions / decisions

Human CostThe rapid location of a missing person may significantly

minimise their risk of harm as well as the associated stress

to family members and friends

Financial Cost£ Saving just 60minutes of a police officers time (@£25 per hour

for each of the 300,000 annual missing person cases would save the UK Police Service £7,500,000 every year

£ Many missing person enquiries cost in excess of £20,000 case,Some incur costs amounting to millions of pounds.

A collaborative research process - research with and for the police

Joint working of academics and practitioners yields a better product

Draw on the experiences and perspectives of practitioners with the benefit of academic robustness

Strongly rooted in the pressing concerns of day-to-day practice (particularly important in current economic environment)

Can complement larger scale projects or explore issues not touched on by more traditional research

Benefits for practitioners

Acquire research skills and tools Increased confidence Increased respect from colleagues A regenerated interest in their own profession /

greater interest in professional development Enjoyable experience despite extra work / effort

Dr Penny Woolnough CPsychol FRSA

Senior Research Officer Grampian Police

Police HeadquartersQueen Street

AberdeenAB10 1ZA

United Kingdom+44 1224 305136

penny.woolnough@grampian.pnn.police.uk