Post on 03-Feb-2022
Mill Rolls Industry Research ReportIndustry Research Report
May 2008
www bostonstrategies com
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This report has been prepared by Boston Strategies International at the request of CLIENT for the purpose of establishing its operating strategies. It may not be appropriate for other purposes or audiences. This report contains forward-looking statements andprojections with respect to anticipated future performance of CLIENT, suppliers, customers, and/or general or specific economic conditions and factors that are based on Boston Strategies International’s analysis of market trends and external data. Forward-lookingstatements and projections are not guarantees of future performance and involve significant business, economic and competitive risks, contingencies and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. Accordingly, these projections and forward-looking statements may
not be realized and actual results may vary up or down. This report may not be reproduced or distributed without express written approval from Boston Strategies International.
Contents
• Highlights• Demand
T S li• Top Suppliers
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HighlightsHighlights
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Mill roll suppliers had record sales in 2007
• The major suppliers posted strong sale increases in 2007: • Sinosteel Xingtai Machinery& Mill Roll Co., up 35%
Ak 20%• Akers, up 20%• ESW, up 21%• Aços Villares up 20%
• The top five suppliers for mill rolls continue to account for over 50% of• The top five suppliers for mill rolls continue to account for over 50% of the market.
• Akers remains the leader with an estimated 15% market share.• Sinosteel Xingtai Machinery replaced Union Electric/Davy as #2.g y p y• Backlogs are high in the industry – 2-3 years.
Top Suppliers and Market SharesMill RollRank Name Mill Roll
Market Share
1 AKERS National Roll Co. 15%2 Sinosteel Xingtai Machinery& Mill Roll Co., Ltd 11%3 Union Electric Steel / Davy Roll Company 10%4 Sidenor / Acos Villares SA 8%
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4 Sidenor / Acos Villares SA 8%5 WHEMCO 7%
DemandDemand
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Steel production will increase, but at a slower rate of growth
• Mill Roll demand is driven by the steel industry.• Global steel consumption is set to increase in 2008 and 2009, but the
rate of increase will decline from 8% in 2007 to 6% for 2008 2010 andrate of increase will decline from 8% in 2007 to 6% for 2008-2010, and 4% until 2014.
• Demand for steel would have stagnated if not for demand in China and emerging markets.g g
Iron & Steel Production
2.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
Billions ofMetric Tonnes
0.0
0.5
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
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YearSource: Boston Logistics analysis of IISI data
Asian markets will continue to drive demand for steel
• Chinese steel consumption is expected to grow by 11.5% in 2008 and 10.0% in 2009, accounting for 35% and 37% of world total by in 2008 and 2009 respectively driven primarily by infrastructure projects in thisand 2009, respectively, driven primarily by infrastructure projects in this region.
• Actual steel production in the US is forecast to be flat from 2008-2010, primarily due to a slowdown in auto and construction.
Iron and Steel Production Index (Index, 1997=100))
9001,000
300400500600700800
Production Index
(1997=100))
0100200300
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014Years
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Source: Boston Logistics analysis of Global Insight and IISI data
US China
Suppliers will nearly double investments in iron and steel production capacity in Asia by 2012
• In 2008, Asia comprises nearly three quarters of the total capital expenditures for the global Iron & Steel industry and will grow at nearly 20% during 2008 while North America does not grow at all20% during 2008 while North America does not grow at all.
• Chinese investment is over 40% of GDP and will remain at about that level for the next five years.
Iron and Steel Capital Investment Trend
500
600
700
200
300
400
500Iron & Steel
Capital Formation Index(Europe
2008 =100)
0
100
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Asia Latin & Central America North America Europe
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Source: Boston Logistics analysis of Global Insight data
Demand for mill rolls continues strong
• For all types of rolls, Asia leads the demand for rolls, followed by Europe, CIS and the Americas.
• New mills coming out in China and India will keep demand for new rolls• New mills coming out in China and India will keep demand for new rolls high. Demand for mill rolls demand will increase at 12-15% per year through 2012.
• This represents an increase in demand from our previous forecast of 10-p p12% due primarily to higher forecasts for capital expenditures for the iron and steel industry
Demand for Mill Rolls Worldwide
$4,000
$5,000
$6,000
$7,000
Millions of US Dollars
Americas
CIS
$0
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
per Year Europe
Asia
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Source: Boston Logistics analysis
Year
Asian demand for cast and forged rolls will triple by 2014
Demand for Cast Work Rolls Demand for Forged Work Rolls
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
Millions of US Dollars
Americas
Europe800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
Millions of US Dollars
AmericasEurope
-
200
400
600
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
US Dollars CIS
Asia
-
200
400
600
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
US Dollars CISAsia
Source: Boston Logistics analysis
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014Year Year
Source: Boston Logistics analysis
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As for work rolls, demand for backup rolls in Asia will drive the market
Demand for Backup Rolls
2,000
2,500
1,500
Millions of
AmericasEuropeCIS
500
1,000 US Dollars CISAsia
-2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Year
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Source: Boston Logistics analysis
Top SuppliersTop Suppliers
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Top Mill Roll Suppliers
Rank Name Home Country Sales (2007)(000's $US)
Rolls as a % of Sales
2007 Mill Rolls
Revenues (M$US)
Mill Roll Market Share
Tons of Mil Roll
Capacity (000)
1 AKERS National Roll Co. Sweden, Slovenia 477,802 83% 398 15% 92
2 Sinosteel Xingtai Machinery& Mill Roll Co., Ltd China 330,000 90% 297 11% 140
3 Union Electric Steel / Davy Roll Company USA 277,000 100% 277 10% 55
4 Sidenor / Acos Villares SA Brazil, Spain 1,023,781 21% 215 8% 455 WHEMCO USA 330,625 60% 198 7% 65
6NKMZ - Novokramatorsky Mashinostroitelny Zavod Joint Stock Company
Ukraine 230,260 50% 115 4% 29
7 ESW Austria 98,109 100% 98 4% 24
8 Gontermann-Peipers Gmbh Germany 146,200 50% 73 3% 22
9 Sheffield Forgemasters UK 276,516 25% 69 3% 16
10 Nippon Steel & Sumikin Rolls Corp Japan 67,903 100% 68 2% 15
11 Bao Steel Hitachi Rolls Japan 57,143 100% 57 2% 1812 Smorgon Steel Australia 2,620,970 2% 52 2% 13
13 Heavy Engineering Corporation (HEC) India 50,500 100% 51 2% 15
14 Steinhoff GmbH & Cie OHG Germany 49 600 100% 50 2% 1514 Steinhoff GmbH & Cie. OHG Germany 49,600 100% 50 2% 15
15 Superior Forge and Steel USA 38,800 100% 39 1% 816 Xtek Inc USA 74,500 50% 37 1% 9
17 Gontermann-Peipers India Limited India 36,600 100% 37 1% 11
18 Tayo Rolls Limited India 39,122 72% 28 1% 11
19 U it d F d i / SARCO USA S Af i 27 965 100% 28 1% 9
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19 United Foundries / SARCO USA + S. Africa 27,965 100% 28 1% 9
20 Others 547 20% 153Total 2,734 100% 763
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