Post on 08-Jul-2020
Midterm Review of the Implementation of the Vienna Programme of Action for LLDCs for the Decade 2014-2024
in the Euro-Asian RegionUNCC, Bangkok ,11-12 February, 2019
Session 4: International Trade and Trade Facilitation
Dr. Yann DuvalChief, Trade Policy and Facilitation Section, Trade, Investment and Innovation Division, ESCAP
LLDC members of ESCAP: Afghanistan, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bhutan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Lao PDR, Mongolia, Nepal, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan
Source:
VPOA Priority III objectives
Priority III (a –Trade)a) Increase the participation of LLDCs in global trade, with a focus on substantially increasing exports;b) increase the value added and manufactured exports with the objective of diversifying their markets and products;c) Strengthen economic and financial ties with countries in the region so as to gradually and consistently increase the share of landlocked developing countries in intraregional trade.Priority III (b –Trade facilitation)a) Simplify and streamline border crossing procedures with the aim of
reducing port and border delays; b) improve transit facilities and their efficiency with the aim of reducing transaction costs;
c) ensure that all transit regulations, formalities and procedures for traffic in transit are published and updated in accordance with the Agreement on Trade Facilitation of the World Trade Organization.
Presentation outline
I. How far along are Asia-Pacific LLDCs based on Priority III(a, b) objectives?i. Participation in global tradeii. Diversification of export markets and products iii. Integration to global and regional economyiv. Trade costsv. Implementation of trade facilitation agreements
II. Emerging challenges III. Way forward
Participation in global trade
Trade has recovered from the three-years consecutive declines, but the momentum may not sustain.
Merchandise trade and trade balance of Asia-Pacific LLDCs • In 2017, trade by Asia-Pacific LLDCs registered positive growth for the first time in three years.
• Trade value grew 19.6% (exports) and 7.3% (imports)
• Shares in global exports and imports remain negligible: 0.53% (exports) and 0.6% (imports)
• Global and regional outlooks suggested that trade growth may not keep its momentum in 2018-2019
• Trade volume by Asia-Pacific region grew only 3.8% for exports and 5.5% for imports in 2018.
• In 2019 this growth will reduce to 2.3% for exports and 3.5% for imports (APTIR2018).
Source: ESCAP's calculation based on mirror data from UNCOMTRADE (accessed January, 2019).
‐20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Uni
ted
Stat
es d
olla
rs (b
illio
ns)
Import Export Trade balance
Export diversification
Export performance of Asia-Pacific LLDCs is driven by fuel-commodity exporters.
Export performance of the group is mainly driven by trade in fuel commodities.• Fuel accounted for
56% of total exports by the group.
• Mineral and metal, 19.2%
• Manufactured products, 19.5%
• Agriculture, 5.4%
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Uni
ted
Stat
es d
olla
rs (b
illio
ns)
Exports of agricultural products Exports of minerals and metalsExports of fuels Exports of manufacturing productsTotal Exports
Export performance by, product groups
Source: ESCAP's calculation based on mirror data from UNCOMTRADE (accessed January, 2019).
More than 60% of exports go to EU and China
• EU remains the most important export market (37%), followed by China (26%) and Russian Federation (8.2%)
• Since 2009, exports to China significantly increased, while the share of exports to the Russian Federation continuously declined.
• However, small LLDCs depend heavily on larger neighboring economies (see next slide).0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Rest of the worldOther Asia-Pacific economies
United StatesTurkeyThailandRussian FederationIndiaEuropean Union (27)
China
Source: ESCAP's calculation based on mirror data from UNCOMTRADE (accessed January, 2019).
Figure 5
Major export partners, 2017
Pakistan
India
India
India
India
Nepal
Thailand
EU EU
EU
EU
EUEU
EU
EU EUEU
US
Russia
Russia
Russia
Russia
Russia
China
ChinaChina
China China
China
Georgia
Switz.Switz.
Switz.
Switz.
Switz.
CanadaKazakh.
Kazakh.
Turkey
Turkey
Turkey
TurkeyAlgeria
Others OthersOthers
OthersOthers Others
Others Others Others OthersOthers Others
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Afghan
istan
Bhutan
Nepal
Armen
iaAzer
baija
nKaza
khsta
n
Lao PDR
Mongo
liaTurk
menist
anKyrg
yzsta
n
Tajikis
tanUzb
ekist
an
Expo
rt sh
ares
Source: ESCAP's calculation based on mirror data from UNCOMTRADE (accessed January, 2019).
Figure 6
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Bhutan
Afghan
istan
Turkmen
istan
Tajikis
tanMon
golia
Lao PDR
Armen
iaKyrg
yzsta
nNep
alAzer
baija
nUzb
ekist
anKaza
khsta
n
Develo
ping A
sia-Paci
fic2012 2017
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Bhutan
Tajikis
tanAfgh
anist
anMon
golia
Kyrgyz
stan
Nepal
Turkmen
istan
Armen
iaLao
PDRAzer
baija
nUzb
ekist
anKaza
khsta
n
Develo
ping A
sia-Paci
fic
2012 2017
Export diversification (number of products)
Figure 8
Export diversification (number of markets)
Figure 9
Source: ESCAP’s calculation based on data from Trade Outcomes Indicators available from WITS (accessed in January, 2019).
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
16.0
16.5
17.0
17.5
18.0
18.5
19.0
19.5
20.0
20.5
21.0
21.5
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Percent o
f total ex
ports
Services ex
ports (USD
Billions)
Services exports by Asia‐Pacific LLDCs
Services share
Services export value The importance of services exports increased from 10% to 17% during 2012-2017.
The shares of services exports are higher than 30% in Afghanistan (construction), Armenia, (travel), Kyrgyzstan (travel), and Nepal (travel).
However, Asia-Pacific LLDCs represent only 0.4% of global services exports. The share remained unchanged from 2012 to 2017.
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
Per c
ent o
f total ex
prots
Services export share, by country
2012 2017
Services Exports
Source: Calculations using data from WTO
Integration to global and regional economy
ESCAP member State/Associate member WTO membership status
Date of Ratification
Afghanistan Member 29 July 2016
Armenia Member 20 March 2017
Azerbaijan Observer Not applicable
Bhutan Observer Not applicable
Kazakhstan Member 26 May 2016
Kyrgyzstan Member 6 December 2016
Lao People’s Democratic Republic Member 29 September 2015
Mongolia Member 28 November 2016
Nepal Member 24 January 2017
Tajikistan Member Not yet ratified
Turkmenistan Not a member Not applicable
Uzbekistan Observer Not applicable
WTO membership status (and ratification of the WTO Trade Facilitation Agreement)
Source: WTO (updated in January, 2019).
Country Name Number of FTAs Afghanistan 3 (ECOTA, SAFTA, India)Armenia 14 (CISFTA, EAEU, EAEU-Viet Nam, EAEU-Islamic Republic of Iran, EAEU-China, Georgia, Kazakhstan,
Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Russian Federation, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, Belarus)Azerbaijan 12 (CISFTA, ECOTA, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Belarus, GUAM, Moldova, Russian Federation, Turkmenistan,
Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Islamic Republic of Iran)Bhutan 2 (India, SAFTA)Kazakhstan 20 (Armenia, Azerbaijan, CISFTA, CEZ, EAEC, ECOTA, EAEU, EAEU-Viet Nam, EAEU-Islamic
Republic of Iran, EAEU-China, Georgia, Kyrgyzstan, KRB, Moldova, Russian Federation, Tajikistan, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Belarus, Serbia)
Kyrgyzstan 14 (Armenia, Belarus, CISFTA, EAEC, ECOTA, EAEU-Viet Nam, EAEU-Islamic Republic of Iran, EAEU-China, Kazakhstan, Moldova, Russian Federation, Tajikistan, Ukraine, Uzbekistan)
Lao PDR 9 (AFTA-ATIGA-AFAS, APTA, ASEAN-China, ASEAN-India, ASEAN-Japan, ASEAN-Republic of Korea, ASEAN-AU-NZ, ASEAN-Hong Kong, China, Thailand)
Mongolia 1 (Japan EPA)Nepal 2 (SAFTA, India)Tajikistan 10 (Armenia, CISFTA, EAEC, ECOTA,
Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russian Federation, Belarus, Ukraine, Uzbekistan)Turkmenistan 9 (Armenia, Azerbaijan, CISFTA, ECOTA, Georgia, Russian Federation, Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova)Uzbekistan 11 (Azerbaijan, CISFTA, ECOTA, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Russian Federation, Tajikistan,
Ukraine, Belarus)
Source: Compiled from Asia-Pacific Trade and Investment Agreements Database (APTIAD) (accessed January, 2019).
Participation of LLDCs in preferential trade agreements
Agreements in red are the FTAs signed since 2017
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Mongolia
Turkmenistan
Azerbaijan
UzbekistanKazakhstan
Kyrgyzstan
Nepal
Tajikistan
ArmeniaLao PDR
Bhutan
Afghanistan
Export share Import share
Source: Derived from Asia-Pacific Trade and Investment Agreements database (APTIAD) using WITS database (accessed January, 2019).
Trade coverage under Preferential Trade Agreements (PTAs):Share of exports and imports with PTA partners (2017)
Improvement in trade facilitation
Implementation of WTO Trade Facilitation Agreement: Notifications of LLDCs and selected transit countries (%)
Source: World Trade Organization : TFA database
Trade facilitation and paperless trade implementation performance of LLDCs
Source: UN Global Survey on Trade Facilitation and Paperless Trade Implementation 2017.
UNTFSURVEY.ORG
Source: ESCAP (2017), based on UN Global Survey on Trade Facilitation and Paperless Trade Implementation 2017.
Implementation of different groups of trade facilitation measures
Emerging challenges and implications to Asia-Pacific LLDCs
Indirect impacts from the US-China trade tensions
Source: APTIR 2018
Risk Index Figure 13
Opportunity IndexFigure 14
The risks from slowdown of the Chinese economy and exports.
The opportunity from redirected trade and investment.
Tariffs remain low, but non-tariff measures are on the rise.
4
4.5
5
5.5
6
6.5
7
7.5
8
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Aver
age
tarif
f rat
es (p
er c
ent)
New
mea
sure
s
SPS measures TBT measures Effective applied tariffs
Effectively applied tariffs and non-tariff measures initiated in Asia and the PacificFigure 15
Source: ESCAP calculations based on data from World Bank (2018). World Integrated Trade Solutions. (accessed 12 February 2018).
Way forward
• Dealing with fundamental bottlenecks:• limited manufacturing capacity and export diversification, • limited and low quality infrastructure, • limited stock of human capital,• high trade and transit costs because of cumbersome border
crossing documentation, regulatory requirements and poor logistics performance
• Building immunity to external shocks:• the projected slowing down of the global economy,• volatility in commodity prices, • growing protectionism• indirect risks from trade tensions.
• Enhancing integration into global and regional economy:• expediting the process of WTO accession (for non-WTO members
LLDCs),• considering unilateral liberalization in goods and services,• as well as participation in deeper plurilateral integration
(“economic partnerships”) agreements• accelerating implementation of trade facilitation and digitalization
measures, • including by ratifying the WTO Trade Facilitation Agreement, • as well as engaging in regional and sub-regional initiatives on trade
digitalization such as The Framework Agreement on Facilitation of Cross-border Paperless Trade in Asia and the Pacific (UN treaty adopted at ESCAP in 2016)
For more information, please visitwww.unescap.org/publications/asia-pacific-trade-and-investment-report-2018APTIR Country briefs are available for selected LLDCs:ArmeniaAzerbaijanKyrgyzstanLao PDRMongoliaNepalUzbekistan
THANK YOU
WWW.UNESCAP.ORGUNESCAPUNESCAPUNESCAPUNITEDNATIONSESCAPUNITEDNATIONSESCAP
Additional slides
Export structure of major fuel exporting LLDCs, 2017
Figure 3
Export structure of other LLDCs, 2017
Figure 4
Mineral fuel/lubricants
71.08%
Manufactured goods13.62%
Crude mater.ex food/fuel6.27%
Chemicals/products n.e.s4.79%
Export concentration of Asia-Pacific LLDCS
Source: ESCAP's calculation based on mirror data from UNCOMTRADE (accessed January, 2019).
Mineral fuel/lubricants47.59%
Crude mater.ex food/fuel13.86%
Manufactured goods13.58%
Commodities nes11.20%
Food & live animals4.85%
Chemicals/products n.e.s4.66%
(Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan)(Afghanistan, Armenia, Bhutan, Kyrgyzstan, Lao PDR, Mongolia,
Nepal, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan)
Export structure of Asia-Pacific LLDCs, 2017 (in %)
Source: ESCAP’s calculation based on mirror data from UNCOMTRADE (accessed February, 2019)
Product group Afghanistan Armenia Azerbaijan Bhutan Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan Lao PDR Mongolia Nepal Tajikistan Turkmenistan UzbekistanAnimal/veg oil/fat/wax 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0Beverages and tobacco 0.0 11.3 0.1 1.6 0.2 0.7 0.6 0.0 9.4 0.1 0.0 0.3Chemicals/products n.e.s 0.4 1.0 0.9 12.6 5.1 0.7 2.8 0.2 5.6 0.3 2.0 10.8Commodities nes 0.5 7.0 0.9 0.2 1.1 49.8 18.9 11.1 0.9 15.3 0.0 41.7Machinery/transp equipmt 2.0 1.6 0.3 1.2 0.7 3.1 6.5 0.2 1.5 2.3 0.4 2.5Food & live animals 56.2 5.4 2.3 2.9 1.5 9.1 10.0 2.9 14.0 6.9 0.1 8.0Mineral fuel/lubricants 7.2 0.5 93.6 14.7 68.7 7.2 0.1 42.2 0.2 0.0 90.9 9.0Crude mater.ex food/fuel 29.3 40.7 0.4 7.6 6.6 20.6 38.1 40.7 1.4 41.9 2.8 3.9Manufactured goods 3.3 24.8 1.3 58.6 15.8 6.2 4.6 1.7 39.7 29.3 3.5 20.4Cork/wood manufactures 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0Iron and steel 0.0 6.1 0.3 56.9 5.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 4.4 0.0 0.0 0.0Leather manufactures 0.7 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 2.2 0.0 0.3 1.3 0.8 0.1 0.4Metal manufactures nes 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 1.7 2.5 0.0 0.4Non‐ferrous metals 0.0 12.4 0.7 0.6 9.7 0.8 3.2 1.1 1.4 20.9 0.0 9.6Non‐metal mineral manuf. 1.1 5.9 0.1 0.5 0.1 1.6 0.2 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.0 0.3Paper/paperboard/article 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0Rubber manufactures nes 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0Textile yarn/fabric/art. 1.4 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 29.7 4.4 3.4 9.6Miscellaneous manuf arts 1.0 7.7 0.1 0.8 0.3 2.6 18.4 1.1 27.2 3.9 0.3 3.4Building fixtures etc 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Furniture/furnishings 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0Travel goods/handbag/etc 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0Scientific/etc instrumnt 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0Photographic equ/clocks 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Footwear 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 2.0 0.0 1.8 0.0 0.0 0.1Apparel/clothing/access 0.3 6.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.5 14.7 1.0 15.9 3.5 0.3 3.1Misc manufactures nes 0.2 0.7 0.1 0.7 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.1 8.5 0.3 0.0 0.2
Pakistan
US
US
IndiaIndia
India
China
China
China
China
ChinaChina
ChinaChina
China China China
Russia
Russia RussiaRussia
Russia
Russia
Russia Russia
EU
EU
EU
EU EU
EUEU
EUEU
Turkey Turkey
Thailand
Thailand
Kazakh.
Kazakh.Kazakh.
Kazakh.
Japan RoK
Others OthersOthers
OthersOthers Others Others Others Others
Others Others Others
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Bhutan
Nepal
Afghan
istan
Lao PDR
Kyrgyz
stan
Kazakh
stan
Tajikis
tan
Mongo
liaUzb
ekist
an
Armen
iaAzer
baija
nTurk
menist
an
Impo
rt sh
ares
Major import partners, 2017
Source: ESCAP's calculation based on mirror data from UNCOMTRADE (accessed January, 2019).
Figure 7
• Armenia’s imports from China account for 6.2% of its totalimports from the world, while its exports to China accountfor 17.4% of its total exports to the world.
• Kazakhstan’s imports from China account for 34.5% of itstotal imports from the world, and its exports to Chinaaccount for 16.6% of its total exports to the world.
• Kyrgyzstan’s imports from China account for 64.4% of itstotal imports from the world, whilst its exports to Chinaaccount for 7% of its total exports to the world.
EAEU-China FTA signed in 2017 is an important one because of significant trade with China, especially on import side.
Red is when a country has higher trade cost than AP average.
Average trade costs of LLDCs with Asia-Pacific sub-regions (2016)
ENEA NCA Pacific SSWA SEAAfghanistan 404.3 195.7 362.1 144.8 401.1Armenia 345.3 215.5 417.2 485.1 441.6Azerbaijan 392.7 142.9 383.8 198.9 366.0Bhutan (2012) 362.5 - 547.3 202.4 351.7Kazakhstan 181.9 134.0 286.0 213.9 429.1Kyrgyz Republic 314.6 171.3 413.4 259.0 484.2Lao PDR 211.6 363.2 299.0 296.0 287.3Mongolia 187.1 317.1 259.2 402.2 349.8Nepal (2015) 318.7 1009.7 240.0 263.6 431.9Tajikistan (2015) 237.8 220.5 693.8 232.2 718.8Turkmenistan (2000) 312.6 125.5 - 158.5 422.8Uzbekistan 213.1 134.6 629.7 225.2 356.8Asia-Pacific LLDC average 290.2 275.5 412.0 256.8 420.1Asia-Pacific average (2015) 204.9 335 291.7 294.2 286.7
Source: ESCAP-World Bank Trade Cost Database (accessed January, 2019).