Arjen de WitERNOP Conference, Riga

July 11, 2013

Mechanisms of crowding-out and crowding-in

Private contributions to international aid in 18 European welfare states

So what?● Welfare states under pressure● How are private contributions affected by

(changes in) institutions?– Do citizens contribute more in smaller

welfare states?– Or do generous welfare states

encourage private contributions?

Crowding-out research● Theoretical foundations: Alexis de

Tocqueville, Robert Nisbet, Milton Friedman● Most current research Anglo-American● Two strands of research:

– Economics– Sociology

Crowding-out research● Theoretical foundations: Alexis de

Tocqueville, Robert Nisbet, Milton Friedman● Most current research Anglo-American● Two strands of research:

– Economics– Sociology

● Paradox: there is evidence for crowding-out, but hardly in survey studies

The challenge● Under which conditions does crowding-out

occur?● Does crowding-out exist for giving money

as well as other forms of participation?● How can it be explained?

Data and method● European Social Survey 2002● No. of countries: 20● N = 38,959● Donated money / did voluntary work in last

12 months (yes/no)● Country data: IMF, OECD● Multilevel random-effects logistic regression

Data and method● European Social Survey 2002● No. of countries: 20 18● N = 38,959 32,870● Donated money / did voluntary work in last

12 months (yes/no)● Country data: IMF, OECD● Multilevel random-effects logistic regression

Data and method● European Social Survey 2002● No. of countries: 20 18 17● N = 38,959 32,870 31,466● Donated money / did voluntary work in last

12 months (yes/no)● Country data: IMF, OECD● Multilevel random-effects logistic regression

Data and method● European Social Survey 2002● No. of countries: 20 18 17 15● N = 38,959 32,870 31,466 28,188● Donated money / did voluntary work in last

12 months (yes/no)● Country data: IMF, OECD● Multilevel random-effects logistic regression

Mechanisms● Welfare state expenditures in a sector

affect organisations in that sector● Total welfare state expenditures affect

people's resources● Welfare state regime type affects people's

values

Testing the mechanisms (1)● Welfare state expenditures in a sector

affect organisations in that sector● Total welfare state expenditures affect

people's resources● Welfare state regime type affects people's

values

Higher international aid, more giving..

0

1

2

3

4

5

ODAODA controlled for subsidies to NGOs

Odds ratios on donating money to international aid organisations

15 countriesN = 28,188

*

...partly explained by organisation effects

0

1

2

3

4

5

ODAODA controlled for subsidies to NGOs

Odds ratios on donating money to international aid organisations

*

*

15 countriesN = 28,188

Effects smaller for volunteering

0

1

2

3

4

5

ODAODA controlled for subsidies to NGOs

Odds ratios on volunteering in international aid organisations

* *

15 countriesN = 28,188

Testing the mechanisms (2)● Welfare state expenditures in a sector

affect organisations in that sector● Total welfare state expenditures affect

people's resources● Welfare state regime type affects people's

values

Expenditures have no effect on giving

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

ExpendituresExpenditures controlled for educationExpenditures controlled for education and income security

Odds ratios on donating money to international aid organisations

17 countriesN = 31,466

Expenditures have no effect on giving

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

ExpendituresExpenditures controlled for educationExpenditures controlled for education and income security

Odds ratios on donating money to international aid organisations

17 countriesN = 31,466

Expenditures have no effect on giving

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

ExpendituresExpenditures controlled for educationExpenditures controlled for education and income security

Odds ratios on donating money to international aid organisations

17 countriesN = 31,466

No effects for volunteering either

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

ExpendituresExpenditures controlled for educationExpenditures controlled for education and income security

Odds ratios on volunteering in international aid organisations

17 countriesN = 31,466

(*)

Testing the mechanisms (3)● Welfare state expenditures in a sector

affect organisations in that sector● Total welfare state expenditures affect

people's resources● Welfare state regime type affects people's

values

Welfare state regime types

UniversalismDe-commodification Low High

Low Anglo-Saxon and MediterraneanUK, IL, IT, ES, PT

Central and Eastern EuropeanHU, PL, SI

High ConservativeFR, DE, AT, BE, LU

SocialistFI, NL, DK, SE, NO

Welfare state regime type matters...

CEE Conservative Socialist0

1

2

3

4

5

Regime typeRegime type controlled for values of solidarityRegime type controlled for solidarity and trust

Odds ratios on donating money to international aid organisations

18 countriesN = 32,870

(*)

*

(*)

Welfare state regime type matters...

CEE Conservative Socialist0

1

2

3

4

5

Regime typeRegime type controlled for values of solidarityRegime type controlled for solidarity and trust

Odds ratios on donating money to international aid organisations

18 countriesN = 32,870

(*) *

**

(*)

..partly because it encourages trust

CEE Conservative Socialist0

1

2

3

4

5

Regime typeRegime type controlled for values of solidarityRegime type controlled for solidarity and trust

Odds ratios on donating money to international aid organisations

18 countriesN = 32,870

(*) *

**

*

(*)

(*)

Same (but smaller) effects for volunteering

CEE Conservative Socialist0

1

2

3

4

5

Regime typeRegime type controlled for values of solidarityRegime type controlled for solidarity and trust

Odds ratios on volunteering in international aid organisations

18 countriesN = 32,870

*

*

Same (but smaller) effects for volunteering

CEE Conservative Socialist0

1

2

3

4

5

Regime typeRegime type controlled for values of solidarityRegime type controlled for solidarity and trust

Odds ratios on volunteering in international aid organisations

18 countriesN = 32,870

* *

**

Same (but smaller) effects for volunteering

CEE Conservative Socialist0

1

2

3

4

5

Regime typeRegime type controlled for values of solidarityRegime type controlled for solidarity and trust

Odds ratios on volunteering in international aid organisations

18 countriesN = 32,870

* *

***

*

Conclusions● Crowding-in when looking at sector● No resources mechanism● Welfare state regime type matters (but

how?)● Same effects for giving and volunteering

Towards better crowding-out research

● More specific variables● Testing mechanisms● Testing conditions● Testing causality

Arjen de WitCenter for Philanthropic Studies

VU University Amsterdam

a.de.wit@vu.nl

Thank you