Post on 26-Apr-2020
METinfoNo. 17/2019
ISSN 1894-759X
Meteorology
Verification of Operational
Weather Prediction Models
December 2018 to February 2019
Mariken Homleid and Frank Thomas Tveter
Contents
Introduction
Models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
Post processed forecasts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
The HARMONIE system . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
Verification measures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
Observations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
Mean Sea Level Pressure figures
Statistics by lead time . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
Monthly summary statistics the last three years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
Temperature 2m figures
Statistics by lead time . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
Monthly mean error the last three years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
Monthly standard deviation of error the last three years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
Monthly mean absolute error the last three years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
Maps for each region . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
Time series for selected stations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27
Post processed temperature 2m figures
Statistics by lead time . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39
Wind speed 10m figures
Statistics summarized over Norwegian stations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40
Statistics summarized over Svalbard stations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41
Statistics summarized over north Nowegian stations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42
Monthly mean error the last three years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43
Monthly standard deviation of error the last three years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44
Monthly mean absolute error the last three years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45
Maps for each region . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46
Time series for selected stations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52
Post processed maximum mean wind speed 10m figures
Statistics by lead time . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63
Statistics for categorised events . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63
Wind gust figures
Statistics by lead time . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64
Statistics for categorised events . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64
2
Precipitation figures
Statistics by lead time (RR12) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65
Statistics for categorised events (RR12) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65
Monthly mean error the last three years (RR24) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66
Monthly standard deviation of error the last three years (RR24) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67
Monthly mean absolute error the last three years (RR24) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68
Maps for each region (RR24) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69
Time series for selected stations (RR12) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75
More information...
Verification results are also available on internal web pages
• http://metcoop.smhi.se/ - MetCoOp Web Tools - including verification and observation monitoring
• http://verif/vmap/ - timeseries and windroses - on Google map
3
Models
The following Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models are verified in this report.
ECMWF Global model (IFS) at the European Centre for Medium-Range
Weather Forecasts. From 26 January 2010 horizontal resolution
approximately 16×16 km2. From 8 March 2016 cycle 41r2 with
horizontal resolution about 9km. ECMWF is available about 5
hours later than models run at MET.
AROME-MetCoOp (AM25) HARMONIE with AROME physics, horizontal resolution de-
fined by a 2.5 × 2.5 km2 grid on same domain as AROME-
Norway. Run in cooperation with Swedish Meteorological and
Hydrological Institute (SMHI). Experimental with cycle 38h1.1
from 9 December 2013, operational from 12 March 2014 to 8
November 2016, cycle 38h1.2 from 8 December 2014.
AROME-Arctic (AA25) HARMONIE with AROME physics, horizontal resolution de-
fined by a 2.5 × 2.5 km2 grid, same domain size as AROME-
MetCoOp. Experimental with cycle 38h1.2 from 15 October
2015, on Yr from 14 December 2016, cycle 40h1.1 since 19 June
2017.
MetCoOp ensemble system (MEPSctrl) MEPS has 10 ensemble members, only member 0, the control,
is verified in this report. MEPS is based on HARMONIE cycle
40h1.1 with AROME physics and non-hydrostatic dynamics, hor-
izontal resolution defined by a 2.5× 2.5 km2 grid. Experimental
since 25 May 2016. Operational status since 8 November 2016.
Analysis and lead times of forecasts are denoted by e.g. 00+30 UTC which indicates forecast generated
at 00 UTC and valid 30 hours later.
A change log for HARMONIE AROME is available on internal webpages
https://metcoop.smhi.se/dokuwiki/nwp/metcoop/changelog/start.
Post processed forecasts
Most of the raw NWP model data are post processed before being published on Yr.
The met nordic temperature forecasts, YrPP in the plots, are post-processed forecasts based on the lat-
est MEPS control run. The MEPS temperature forecasts are first downscaled to 1 km resolution using
the model lapse rate in a neighbourhood. The forecasts are then bias corrected using a fine scale 1 km
temperature analysis as reference. The temperature analysis is based on mulitple data sources using both
conventional and citizen observations.
10 m wind speed is statistically post processed to represent maximum wind speed 10m last hour, and
called YrPP.
4
The HARMONIE system
HARMONIE is the acronym for HIRLAM’s meso-scale forecast system (Hirlam Aladin Regional/Meso-
scale Operational NWP In Europe). For documentation see
- The HARMONIE-AROME Model Configuration in the ALADIN-HIRLAM NWP System by Bengtsson
et al. 2017, available at https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-16-0417.1
- AROME-MetCoOp: A Nordic Convective-Scale Operational Weather Prediction Model by Muller et
al. 2017, available at https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-16-0099.1
More documentation is also available on http://www.cnrm.meteo.fr/gmapdoc/ and http://hirlam.org/.
This section presents some of the main components and setups that are used at MET.
AROME physics
AROME (Applications of Research to Operations at MEsoscale) is targeted for horizontal resolution 2.5
km or finer. It uses physical parameterizations based on the French academia model Meso-NH and the
external surface model SURFEX. AROME has been operational at Meteo-France since 18 December
2008 with a horizontal resolution of 2.5 km and 65 vertical layers, and from April 2015 1.3 km and 90
vertical layers.
SURFEX as surface model
SURFEX (Surface externalisee) is developed at Meteo-France and academia for offline experiments and
introduced in NWP models to ensure consistent treatment of processes related to surface. Meteo-France
uses SURFEX in all their configurations. Surface modelling and assimilation benefit from the possibility
of running offline experiments. SURFEX is also used for offline applications in e.g. hydrology, vegeta-
tion monitoring and snow avalanche forecasts.
SURFEX includes routines to simulate the exchange of energy and water between the atmosphere and
4 surface types (tiles); land, sea (ocean), lake (inland water) and town. The land or nature tile can be
divided further into 12 vegetation types (patches). ISBA (Interaction between Soil Biosphere and At-
mosphere) is used for modelling the land surface processes. There are 3 ISBA options; 2- and 3-layer
force restore and a diffusive approach, where the first one is used in HIRLAM. Towns may be treated
by a separate TEB (Town Energy Balance) module. Seas and lakes are also treated separately. The lake
model, FLAKE (Freshwater LAKE), has recently been introduced in SURFEX. A global ECOCLIMAP
database which combines land cover maps and satellite information gives information about surface
properties. The orography is taken from gtopo30.
SURFEX Scientific Documentation and User’s Guide are available on http://www.cnrm.meteo.fr/surfex/
5
Data assimilation
NWP models are updated regularly using observations received in real-time from the global observing
system. MEPS is updated each third hour; at 00, 03, 06, 09, 12, 15, 18 and 21 UTC.
Surface analysis
Surface analysis is performed by CANARI (Code d’Analyse Necessaire a ARPEGE pour ses Rejets et
son Initialisation) (Taillefer, 2002). The analysis method is Optimal Interpolation and only conventional
synoptic observations are used. 2 meter temperature and relative humidity observations are used to up-
date the surface and soil temperature and moisture.
The snow analysis is also performed with CANARI in analogy with the HIRLAM snow analysis. Snow
depth observations are used to update Snow Water Equivalent. The snow fields are analysed only at 06
UTC as there are very few snow depth observations at 00, 03, 09, 12, 15, 18 and 21.
The Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and Sea Ice Concentration (SIC) is not analysed, but taken from
the boundaries. ECMWF uses the OSTIA (Operational Sea Surface Temperature and Sea Ice Analysis)
product, including SST from UK Met Office and SIC from MET. SST and SIC for the Baltic Sea have
since 26 November 2015 been taken from ocean models run at SMHI; first HIROMB and since 26 April
2017 NEMO.
The surface temperature over sea ice was taken from the boundary model and remained unchanged
through the forecast. A simple thermodynamical sea ice scheme (SICE) giving prognostic sea ice tem-
peratures in 4 fixed layers was introduced 26 November 2015.
Upper air analysis
MEPS runs three dimensional variational (3D VAR) data assimilation using conventional observations
from synop stations, ships, radiosondes and aircrafts and AMSU-A and AMSU-B/MHS data from polar
orbiting NOAA and METOP satellites. GNSS were introduced 17 February 2015, radar reflectivities 16
June 2015, IASI 26 November 2015 and ASCAT 17 March 2016.
Boundary fields
MEPS gets its boundary values (1-hourly) from the ECMWF model at approximately 16 km resolution,
and has currently 65 vertical levels. None of the HARMONIE configurations at MET have applied digi-
tal filter initialization (DFI).
6
Verification measures
All model forecasts in this report are verified against observations by interpolating (linear) the grid based
forecasts to the observational sites. As a consequence, it should be noted that it is the models’ abilities
to forecast the observations that is being quantifed and assessed. Thus, there is no attempt in this report
to verify area averaged precipitation for example.
Verification is carried out both for raw and categorized forecasts. In the following, let f1, ..., fn denote
the forecasts and o1, ...,on the corresponding observations.
Forecasts of continuous variables
The verification statistics applied to continuous variables are defined in the table below
Statistic Acronym Formula Range Optimal score
Mean Error ME1
n∑
ni=1( fi −oi) −∞ to ∞ 0
Mean Absolute Error MAE1
n∑
ni=1 | fi −oi | 0 to ∞ 0
Standard Deviation of Error SDE
( 1
n
n
∑i=1
( fi −oi −ME)2)1/2
0 to ∞ 0
Root Mean Square Error RMSE
( 1
n
n
∑i=1
( fi −oi)2)1/2
0 to ∞ 0
Correlation COR
1n ∑
ni=1( fi − f )(oi − o)
SD( f )SD(o)−1 to 1 1
In the formula for COR the following definitions are used
f =1
n
n
∑i=1
fi, o =1
n
n
∑i=1
oi
SD( f ) =(1
n
n
∑i=1
( fi − f )2)1/2
, SD(o) =(1
n
n
∑i=1
(oi − o)2)1/2
for the means and standard deviations of the forecasts and observations.
7
Forecasts of categorical variables
All variables in this report are continuous in raw form, but it is possible to categorize them and verify
these. For example, wind speed above a given threshold could be of interest which would result in two
possible outcomes (yes and no). The verification is then completely summarized by a contingency table
as the one shown below
event observed
yes no
yes a bevent forecasted
no c d
Verification statistics for such forecasts are listed in the following table
Statistic Acronym Formula Range Optimal score
Hit rate HRa
a+ c0 to 1 1
False alarm rate Fb
b+d0 to 1 0
False alarm ratio FARb
a+b0 to 1 0
Equitable threat score ETSa−ar
a+b+ c−ar−1/3 to 1 1 (0 = no skill)
Hanssen-Kuipers skill score KSS HR - F −1 to 1 1 (0 = no skill)
Heidke skill score HSS(a+d)/n− ss f
1− ss f−∞ to 1 1 (0 = no skill)
In the formula for ETS ar = (a+b)(a+ c)/n.
In the formula for HSS the score for the standard forecast ss f = [(a+b)(a+ c)+(b+d)(c+d)]/n2.
Observations
All observations come from Klimadatavarehuset at MET. Only synop stations are used. The model wind
speed is verified against mean wind observations, FF. The post processed wind speed is intended to
represent maximum wind speed 10m last hour, and is verified against FX.
8
Dec 2018 to Feb 2019 Mean Sea Level Pressure
Lead time (hour)
Mean Error
3 9 15 24 33 42 51 60
−1.0
−0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
155 Nor. stations 00+3,+6,...,+66
MEPSctrl ECMWF
Lead time (hour)
Standard Deviation of Error
3 9 15 24 33 42 51 60
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
155 Nor. stations 00+3,+6,...,+66
Lead time (hour)
Mean Absolute Error
3 9 15 24 33 42 51 60
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
155 Nor. stations 00+3,+6,...,+66
Lead time (hour)
Mean Error
3 9 15 24 33 42 51 60
−1.0
−0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
13 Svalbard stations 00+3,+6,...,+66
AA25 ECMWF
Lead time (hour)
Standard Deviation of Error
3 9 15 24 33 42 51 60
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
13 Svalbard stations 00+3,+6,...,+66
Lead time (hour)
Mean Absolute Error
3 9 15 24 33 42 51 60
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
13 Svalbard stations 00+3,+6,...,+66
Lead time (hour)
Mean Error
3 9 15 24 33 42 51 60
−1.0
−0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
51 North Scand. stations 00+3,+6,...,+66
AA25
MEPSctrl
ECMWF
Lead time (hour)
Standard Deviation of Error
3 9 15 24 33 42 51 60
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
51 North Scand. stations 00+3,+6,...,+66
Lead time (hour)
Mean Absolute Error
3 9 15 24 33 42 51 60
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
51 North Scand. stations 00+3,+6,...,+66
9
Dec 2018 to Feb 2019 Mean Sea Level Pressure
Dec15 Mar16 Jun16 Sep16 Dec16 Mar17 Jun17 Sep17 Dec17 Mar18 Jun18 Sep18 Dec18
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
Mean Absolute Error112 Norwegian stations 00+24,+30,+36,+42 UTC
ECMWF AM25 MEPSctrl
Dec15 Mar16 Jun16 Sep16 Dec16 Mar17 Jun17 Sep17 Dec17 Mar18 Jun18 Sep18 Dec18
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
Standard Deviation of Error
Dec15 Mar16 Jun16 Sep16 Dec16 Mar17 Jun17 Sep17 Dec17 Mar18 Jun18 Sep18 Dec18
−1.5
−1.0
−0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
Mean Error
10
Dec 2018 to Feb 2019 Temperature 2m
Lead time (hour)
Mean Error
3 9 15 24 33 42 51 60
−2
−1
0
1
267 Nor. stations 00+3,+6,...,+66
MEPSctrl ECMWF
Lead time (hour)
Standard Deviation of Error
3 9 15 24 33 42 51 60
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
267 Nor. stations 00+3,+6,...,+66
Lead time (hour)
Mean Absolute Error
3 9 15 24 33 42 51 60
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
267 Nor. stations 00+3,+6,...,+66
Lead time (hour)
Mean Error
3 9 15 24 33 42 51 60
−2
−1
0
1
13 Svalbard stations 00+3,+6,...,+66
AA25 ECMWF
Lead time (hour)
Standard Deviation of Error
3 9 15 24 33 42 51 60
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
13 Svalbard stations 00+3,+6,...,+66
Lead time (hour)
Mean Absolute Error
3 9 15 24 33 42 51 60
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
13 Svalbard stations 00+3,+6,...,+66
Lead time (hour)
Mean Error
3 9 15 24 33 42 51 60
−2
−1
0
1
80 North Scand. stations 00+3,+6,...,+66
AA25
MEPSctrl
ECMWF
Lead time (hour)
Standard Deviation of Error
3 9 15 24 33 42 51 60
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
80 North Scand. stations 00+3,+6,...,+66
Lead time (hour)
Mean Absolute Error
3 9 15 24 33 42 51 60
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
80 North Scand. stations 00+3,+6,...,+66
11
Dec 2018 to Feb 2019 Temperature 2m
Dec15 Mar16 Jun16 Sep16 Dec16 Mar17 Jun17 Sep17 Dec17 Mar18 Jun18 Sep18 Dec18
−3
−2
−1
0
1
00+24,+30,+36,+42 UTC
ECMWF AM25 MEPSctrl
158 Norwegian stations
Dec15 Mar16 Jun16 Sep16 Dec16 Mar17 Jun17 Sep17 Dec17 Mar18 Jun18 Sep18 Dec18
−3
−2
−1
0
1
40 Norwegian coastal stations
Dec15 Mar16 Jun16 Sep16 Dec16 Mar17 Jun17 Sep17 Dec17 Mar18 Jun18 Sep18 Dec18
−3
−2
−1
0
1
85 Norwegian inland stations
Mean Error
12
Dec 2018 to Feb 2019 Temperature 2m
Dec15 Mar16 Jun16 Sep16 Dec16 Mar17 Jun17 Sep17 Dec17 Mar18 Jun18 Sep18 Dec18
0
1
2
3
4
5
00+24,+30,+36,+42 UTC
ECMWF AM25 MEPSctrl
158 Norwegian stations
Dec15 Mar16 Jun16 Sep16 Dec16 Mar17 Jun17 Sep17 Dec17 Mar18 Jun18 Sep18 Dec18
0
1
2
3
4
5
40 Norwegian coastal stations
Dec15 Mar16 Jun16 Sep16 Dec16 Mar17 Jun17 Sep17 Dec17 Mar18 Jun18 Sep18 Dec18
0
1
2
3
4
5
85 Norwegian inland stations
Standard Deviation of Error
13
Dec 2018 to Feb 2019 Temperature 2m
Dec15 Mar16 Jun16 Sep16 Dec16 Mar17 Jun17 Sep17 Dec17 Mar18 Jun18 Sep18 Dec18
0
1
2
3
4
00+24,+30,+36,+42 UTC
ECMWF AM25 MEPSctrl
158 Norwegian stations
Dec15 Mar16 Jun16 Sep16 Dec16 Mar17 Jun17 Sep17 Dec17 Mar18 Jun18 Sep18 Dec18
0
1
2
3
4
40 Norwegian coastal stations
Dec15 Mar16 Jun16 Sep16 Dec16 Mar17 Jun17 Sep17 Dec17 Mar18 Jun18 Sep18 Dec18
0
1
2
3
4
85 Norwegian inland stations
Mean Absolute Error
14
Dec 2018 to Feb 2019 Temperature 2m
−30
−25
−20
−15
−10
−5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
MEPSctrl 00+12ME at observing sites(numbers in black)
Model "climatology" 01.12.2018 − 28.02.2019
0.2
−0.1
0.3
−0.4
0
1.4
0.4
0
0.2
0.1
−0.9
−0.4
0.1−0.4
−0.2
−0.1
0.2
−0.1
0.1
0
0.3 0
0
0
0
−0.2
0.2
−0.2
−0.1−0.1
0.4
0.3
0.30.4
0
0
0.30.50
−0.5
0 1.1−0.1
1.5−0.8
−0.7
−0.30.3−0.30.5−1
0.40.2
0−0.11.1
−0.6
1.4−0.9
0.5
2.4
−1
1.31.4
2.2
−1.21−0.6
1.4
1.5
−1−1.1
−0.8
3.7
4.9−1.1
−0.7
−0.8
−0.6−0.82.6
1.1−1.60.3
2−0.10.5
−0.6
2.53
1.4−0.2
−0.1
−0.2
0.5
−0.4
0.4
0
1.90.2
0.6
−1.5
1.3
−0.4
−0.8
1.1−0.61.3
0
−0.7
0.1
−0.1
−0.1
0.3
−0.1
0.2
−0.5
−0.6
1.3
−0.2
0.21.5
0.3
−0.2
0.3
0.40.50.6
0.3
0.4
0.4
1.1
0.1
0.40.1
−0.2
0.2
−0.5
−0.20.5−0.4
0.8
1.3
1.8
0.3
−0.5
0.60.71.2
0.2−0.2
0.30.4 0.9
0.9
0.2
0
0.10.4
0 −0.30.4
0.40.1−0.5
0.90
0.20.10.20.61.80
−0.6
0.2
2.1
2.6
0.5
−0.6
0.7−0.5
−1
1.9
0.9
2−0.1
0.40.3
0.9
−0.3
−0.2
0.2
0.1
0
0.10.2
−0.8
0 0.5−0.6
−1
2.8−2.1
−0.40.3
−0.4
1.1
−0.8−0.5
0.3
−0.1
−0.2
0.3
0.3
0.6
−0.2
0
−0.2
0.1
−0.1
−0.3
0.6
0.2
−0.4
0
1
−1.2−0.6 0.3
−0.3
0.1
−0.4
0.2
0.1
−0.4
−1.1
1.4
1.2
−0.5
0.1
0.4
0.1
1.2
2.8
0.5
−0.1
1.3
0.7
−0.1
0.1
−0.5
1
0.7
−0.3
0.7
−1.2
15
Dec 2018 to Feb 2019 Temperature 2m
−30
−25
−20
−15
−10
−5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
MEPSctrl 00+24ME at observing sites(numbers in black)
Model "climatology" 01.12.2018 − 28.02.2019
0.8
−0.3
0.6
0
−0.1
1.5
0.2
−0.2
0.2
1
−0.9
1
0.10
0.6
−0.2
0.4
−0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2 −0.2
0.1
−0.2
0
0.1
−0.2
0.1
0
0.20.3
0.5
0.2
0.40.5
0.1
−0.6
−0.50.3−0.2
−0.2
0.2 1.60.7
1.9−0.9
−0.4
−0.110.22
−1.30.9
0.1
0.8−0.62−0.1
2.6−0.7
1.3
2.8
0.1
1.53
1.5
−20.8−0.4
2.21.6
−0.9−0.9
−0.6
3.8
4.3−1.9−0.6
−0.3
−0.20.22.4
0.9−1.40.6
1.90.91.1
−0.7
2.83.2
2.4−0.4
0.41.4
0.6
0.1
0.5
−0.1
2.1−0.2
2.1
−1.5
1.7
−0.5
−0.6
0.7−0.71.2
−0.2
−0.6
0.1
−0.4
−0.4
0.3
−0.3
0.1
−0.6
−0.4
0.8
−0.2
0.11.2
0.2
−0.5
−0.3
0.10.10.5
0.4
0.5
0
0.6
0.2
0.4−0.1
−0.4
0
−0.4
00.5−0.5
1.1
1.2
2
0.5
−0.5
0.50.91.7
0.1−0.4
0.40.3 1.5
1.1
0.2
0.1
0.10.4
−0.4 −0.40.1
0.3−0.3−0.8
0.8−0.5
0.10.10.50.920
−0.6
−0.1
2.5
3.4
0.3
−0.8
0.5−0.5
−0.8
2
0.9
1.8−0.5
0.50.3
0.8
−0.3
0
0.3
−0.1
0.3
−0.10.2
−0.8
0.1 0.6−0.5
−0.1
2.8−2.6
−0.50.1
−0.5
1.2
−0.6−0.3
−0.1
0.2
0.1
0.5
0.5
0.7
−0.4
0.1
−0.7
1.2
−0.5
−0.5
1.3
0.6
0.4
0.3
1.3
−1.1−1.2 0.6
0.1
0.7
−0.6
−0.2
0
−0.1
−1.6
1.3
1.5
−0.3
0.2
1.3
0.3
1
3.4
1.3
0.9
2.6
1.3
0.3
0.5
−0.1
1.5
0.9
−0.1
0.4
−0.5
16
Dec 2018 to Feb 2019 Temperature 2m
−30
−25
−20
−15
−10
−5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
MEPSctrl 00+12SDE at observing sites(numbers in black)
Model "climatology" 01.12.2018 − 28.02.2019
2.6
0.7
1.1
1.8
0.7
4.5
3.6
3.1
3.2
3.1
2
3.4
22
2.1
1.7
2.1
1.8
1.4
2.1
1.5
1.1
1.7 1.7
1.1
1.7
1.1
0.8
1.3
0.6
0.70.6
1
1.1
1
0.91
0.7
1.31.3
1.71.4
1.6
1.8 2.62.12.6
1.82
1.62.11.51.71.8
2.22.2
21.82.32.6
3.31.3
2.4
3.6
2.4
3.44.2
2.5
1.82.81.7
3.34.3
1.11.3
1.74.7
4.21.6
1.7
1.8
1.91.83.4
2.61.63.4
2.82.12.4
1.9
3.33.6
42.2
2.83
2.3
1.4
2
1.6
2.92.3
2.4
1.7
1.7
1.3
2.6
2.21.13.1
2.8
1.6
0.9
1.51.1
0.9
1
1.6
1
1.8
2.5
1.9
1.82.7
1.7
1.6
2.1
2.422.41.5
3.5
3.22.9
1
1.30.9
2.5
1.1
1.3
1.21.21.6
2.5
2.4
2.9
3.1
2
2.13.13.7
2.90.9
0.81.9 3
2.6
1.12.2
0.70.8
1.4 1.11.2
1.611.4
1.40.9
1.31.31.31.531.2
1.1
1.3
4.45
1.2
1.2
1.11
2.33.2
1
3.2 1.7
1.41.6
1.5
1.1
3.2
4.44.1
2.1
1.41.31.1
0.9 11
2.3
4.82.3
1.61.1
1.5
3.7
1.71.5
2.5
3
3.4
0.9
0.9
0.7
0.9
1.2
1.3
1.3
1.8
1
1.7
2.5
1.6
2.5
1.8
2
1.41.8 2.4
1.4
2.4
1.8
2
2.9
1.9
1.6
3.8
4.1
2.41.6
3.4
3.2
4.5
5.5
3.53.6
4.9
3.32.5
2.32.6
4.6
3.2
2.8
3.3
3.3
17
Dec 2018 to Feb 2019 Temperature 2m
−30
−25
−20
−15
−10
−5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
MEPSctrl 00+24SDE at observing sites(numbers in black)
Model "climatology" 01.12.2018 − 28.02.2019
3.8
1.2
1.2
2.8
0.9
4.9
5
3.6
4.2
4.4
2.6
4.2
2.73.4
3.1
2.2
3.1
1.5
2.7
1.5
2.4 2
2.1
2.2
1.8
0.9
2.3
0.8
0.80.7
0.8
1.1
0.9
1.61.6
0.9
1.41.8
2.32.1
2
1.8 3.13.12.6
2.32.5
1.62.41.72.51.8
2.52.4
2.72.22.92.9
41.3
3.6
4.3
4.1
4.46.2
2.5
2.32.92.1
4.25.2
1.11.8
2.25.8
4.41.5
2.4
2.2
2.533.8
3.21.34.2
2.72.92.7
2.2
43.8
5.12.3
34.8
2.6
2.1
2.2
2.1
3.32.1
3.5
1.8
2.5
1.4
2.9
2.21.43.2
3
1.8
0.9
1.81.2
1
1.2
2
1.1
2.8
2.6
3.4
2.32.9
2.4
1.8
2.3
32.52.91.8
3.6
2.62.8
1.5
1.50.9
2.3
1.1
1.5
1.51.51.8
3.1
2.7
3.6
3.2
2.3
2.44.14.6
3.11
12.2 3.7
3.4
1.22.6
0.90.9
1.6 1.21.3
1.91.11.7
1.41.3
1.31.31.71.631.3
1.1
1.3
4.2
5.4
1.4
1.2
1.31.1
2.43.4
1.1
3.31.9
1.41.7
1.8
1.5
4.5
4.83.7
2.9
1.51.61.4
1.1 1.11.2
3.4
5.42.5
1.81.5
1.7
4.1
1.81.4
3.1
4.3
4.9
0.9
0.9
0.9
1.3
1.8
1.8
1.5
3.1
1.3
2
3.2
2.7
4
2.6
3
1.71.8 4
1.9
3.5
2
2.4
3.9
3.6
2
4.9
5.5
3.32.3
4.6
4.4
4.2
6.3
45.1
5.9
4.53.2
2.93.1
5.1
3.6
3.7
3
4.3
18
Dec 2018 to Feb 2019 Temperature 2m
−30
−25
−20
−15
−10
−5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
MEPSctrl 00+12ME at observing sites(numbers in black)
Model "climatology" 01.12.2018 − 28.02.2019
0
0.3
0.1
0.50
−0.5
0 1.1−0.1
1.5−0.8
−0.7
−0.3
0.3−0.30.5−1
0.4
0−0.11.1
−0.6
−0.9
0.5
2.4
1.31.4
2.2
−1.21−0.6
1.4
1.5
−1−1.1
−0.8
3.7
4.9−1.1
−0.7
−0.8
−0.6−0.82.6
1.1
−1.60.3
2−0.10.5
−0.6
2.5
3
1.4−0.2
−0.1
−0.2
0.5
−0.4
0.2
0.4
0
0−0.6
1.9
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.6
−1.5−1.2−0.9
−0.40
2.5
−0.11.20.80.5
1.7
−1
−0.3
0.1
−0.1−0.1
−0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2
−0.5
0.1
0.7
0.5−0.3
−0.7
−0.4
−0.2
2.2
−0.2
−0.20.3
−0.2
−0.1−0.5
−0.1
−0.2−1.2−1.6
2.4−0.1
−0.6
−0.3−0.9
2.112.1 −0.9
0−0.1
−0.3
0.7
1.3−0.1
−0.1−0.3
0.10.9 1.6
2.6
−0.7
1.7
0−0.7
−1
−0.2
10.8
1.3
−0.7
−0.4
0
0.6−0.8
−0.5
−0.8−1.6
0.20.3
1.1−0.61.3
0.1
0
−0.7
0.1
−0.1
−0.1
0.3
−0.1
0.2
−0.5
−0.6
1.3
−0.2
0.2 1.5
0.3
−0.2
0.3
0.50.60.3
0.1
0.3
0.3
0.6
0.2
−0.3
0
0.2
−0.2
−0.3
−0.4
−0.3−0.1
−0.1
19
Dec 2018 to Feb 2019 Temperature 2m
−30
−25
−20
−15
−10
−5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
MEPSctrl 00+24ME at observing sites(numbers in black)
Model "climatology" 01.12.2018 − 28.02.2019
−0.6
−0.5
0.2
0.3−0.2
−0.2
0.2 1.60.7
1.9−0.9
−0.4
−0.1
10.22
−1.3
0.9
0.8−0.62
−0.1
−0.7
1.3
2.8
1.53
1.5
−20.8−0.4
2.2
1.6
−0.9−0.9
−0.6
3.8
4.3−1.9
−0.6
−0.3
−0.2
0.22.40.9
−1.40.6
1.90.91.1
−0.7
2.8
3.2
2.4−0.4
0.4
1.4
0.6
0.1
0.5
0.5
−0.1
0−1.4
2.1
0.8
−0.2
0.1
2.1
−1.50.2−0.7
0.30.2
2.5
−0.11.20.2
0.2
1.7
−0.9
0.5
0.3
0.30.3
0.1
0.2
0.4
0.1
−0.6
0
0.8
0.6−0.6
−0.6
−0.1
−0.7
2
−0.2
00.4
−0.1
−0.5−0.6
−0.2
−0.3−1.2−1.6
1.9
−0.1
−0.6
−0.3−1.3
1.50.31.5 −0.6
0.1−0.1
−0.2
0
1−0.3
0.4−0.2
00.5 1.4
2.5
−1.1
1.4
0.3 −1
−0.8
−0.4
0.70.6
1.7
−1.3
−0.5
0.1
0.8−1.2
−1
−0.6−1.7
0.3−0.1
0.7
−0.71.2
0.3
−0.2
−0.6
0.1
−0.4
−0.4
0.3
−0.3
0.1
−0.6
−0.4
0.8
−0.2
0.1 1.2
0.2
−0.5
−0.3
0.10.50.4
0.2
0.5
0.5
0.7
0.3
−0.3
0
0.3
0
−0.2
−0.8
−0.5−0.1
−0.1
20
Dec 2018 to Feb 2019 Temperature 2m
−30
−25
−20
−15
−10
−5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
MEPSctrl 00+12SDE at observing sites(numbers in black)
Model "climatology" 01.12.2018 − 28.02.2019
1.3
1.31.2
1.71.4
1.6
1.8 2.62.1
2.61.8
2
1.62.11.51.71.8
2.22.2
21.82.3
2.6
1.3
2.4
3.6
3.44.2
2.5
1.8
2.81.7
3.3
4.3
1.11.3
1.7
4.7
4.21.6
1.7
1.8
1.91.83.4
2.61.63.4
2.82.12.4
1.9
3.3
3.6
42.2
2.83
2.3
1.4
1.3
2
1.6
11.8
2.9
1.6
2.3
2.1
2.4
1.71.81.4
1.31.1
3.3
1.51.71.92.2
2.8
1.2
2
1.511.5
1
0.9
1.9
0.9
1
0.8
2.1
0.90.9
0.9
1.51.4
2.3
0.7
10.6
1.4
11.2
0.9
11.11.2
2.8
1.8
1.5
1.91.1
2.622.9 2.3
1.21.3
1
1.9
2.31
1.21
1.42 2.2
3.1
1.3
3.4
1.2 1.2
1.8
1.1
1.9 2
1.7
1.4
1.3
1
2.71.1
1.4
2.61.2
1.2 1.6
2.21.13.1
0.9
2.8
1.6
0.9
1.5
1.1
0.9
1
1.6
1
1.8
2.5
1.9
1.82.7
1.7
1.6
2.1
2.422.4
1.5
1
0.9
0.9
0.7
0.8
0.7
0.9
0.7
0.8
0.9
0.9
1.21.1
1
1.3
21
Dec 2018 to Feb 2019 Temperature 2m
−30
−25
−20
−15
−10
−5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
MEPSctrl 00+24SDE at observing sites(numbers in black)
Model "climatology" 01.12.2018 − 28.02.2019
1.4
1.81.4
2.32.1
2
1.8 3.13.1
2.62.3
2.5
1.62.41.72.51.8
2.52.4
2.72.22.9
2.9
1.3
3.6
4.3
4.46.2
2.5
2.32.92.1
4.2
5.2
1.11.8
2.2
5.8
4.41.5
2.4
2.2
2.533.8
3.21.34.2
2.72.92.7
2.2
4
3.8
5.12.3
34.8
2.6
2.1
1.6
2.2
2.1
1.11.8
3.3
1.3
2.1
2.5
3.5
1.832
1.91.2
3.6
1.32.31.82.1
3.7
1.3
3.4
21.11.5
0.8
0.8
2.4
0.9
1
0.8
2.2
1.11
1.2
1.91.1
2.4
0.7
1.10.7
1.9
1.21.4
0.8
11.41.3
2.8
2.4
1.9
2.91.4
2.42 3 2.6
1.11.8
1
1.9
2.41
1.50.8
1.41.8 2.3
3.4
1.7
3.6
1.5 1.6
1.7
1.2
2.12.3
2.5
1.8
1.4
1.1
3.11.5
1.7
2.91.4
1.5 1.9
2.21.43.2
1
3
1.8
0.9
1.8
1.2
1
1.2
2
1.1
2.8
2.6
3.4
2.32.9
2.4
1.8
2.3
2.52.91.8
1.5
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.8
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.4
1.31.1
1.2
1.5
22
Dec 2018 to Feb 2019 Temperature 2m
−30
−25
−20
−15
−10
−5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
MEPSctrl 00+12ME at observing sites(numbers in black)
Model "climatology" 01.12.2018 − 28.02.2019
0
0.3
0.1
0.50
−0.5
0 1.1−0.1
1.5−0.8
−0.7
−0.3
0.3
−0.30.5−1
0.40.2
0−0.11.1
−0.6
1.4
−0.9
0.5
2.4
−1
1.3
1.4
2.2
−1.2
1−0.6
1.4
1.5
−1
−1.1
−0.8
3.7
4.9−1.1
−0.7
−0.8
−0.6
−0.82.6
1.1
−1.60.3
2−0.10.5
−0.6
2.5
3
1.4−0.2
−0.1
−0.2
0.5
−0.4
0.2
0.4
0
0
−0.6
1.9
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.6
−1.5−1.2−0.9
−0.40
2.5
−0.11.20.8
0.5
1.7
−1
−0.3
0.1
−0.1−0.10.1
0.1
2.2
−1.2−1.6
2.4
−0.1
−0.6
−0.3−0.9
2.112.1−0.9
0
0.91.6
2.6
−0.7
1.7
10.8
1.3
−0.7
−0.4
0.6−0.8
−0.5
−0.8−1.6
0.20.3
1.1
−0.61.3
0.1
0
−0.7
0.1
−0.1
−0.1
−0.1
−0.6
1.3
−0.2
0.2 1.5
0.3
0.40.50.6
0.3
−0.3
−0.1
−0.3−0.1
−0.1
−0.2
0
0.1
0.6
−1.2
−0.4
0.1
−0.4
−1.1
23
Dec 2018 to Feb 2019 Temperature 2m
−30
−25
−20
−15
−10
−5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
MEPSctrl 00+24ME at observing sites(numbers in black)
Model "climatology" 01.12.2018 − 28.02.2019
−0.6
−0.5
0.2
0.3−0.2
−0.2
0.2 1.60.7
1.9−0.9
−0.4
−0.1
1
0.22
−1.3
0.90.1
0.8−0.62
−0.1
2.6−0.7
1.3
2.8
0.1
1.5
3
1.5
−2
0.8−0.4
2.2
1.6
−0.9
−0.9
−0.6
3.8
4.3−1.9
−0.6
−0.3
−0.2
0.22.4
0.9
−1.40.6
1.90.91.1
−0.7
2.8
3.2
2.4−0.4
0.4
1.4
0.6
0.1
0.5
0.5
−0.1
0
−1.4
2.1
0.8
−0.2
0.1
2.1
−1.50.2−0.7
0.30.2
2.5
−0.11.20.2
0.2
1.7
−0.9
0.5
0.3
0.30.30.2
0.4
−1.2−1.6
1.9
−0.1
−0.6
−0.3−1.3
1.50.31.5
−0.6
0.1
0.51.4
2.5
−1.1
1.4
0.70.6
1.7
−1.3
−0.5
0.8−1.2
−1
−0.6−1.7
0.3−0.1
0.7
−0.71.2
0.3
−0.2
−0.6
0.1
−0.4
−0.4
−0.3
−0.4
0.8
−0.2
0.1 1.2
0.2
0.10.10.5
0.4
−0.2
−0.2
−0.5−0.1
−0.1
−0.7
0
1.2
1.3
−1.1
−0.6
0
−0.1
−1.6
24
Dec 2018 to Feb 2019 Temperature 2m
−30
−25
−20
−15
−10
−5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
MEPSctrl 00+12SDE at observing sites(numbers in black)
Model "climatology" 01.12.2018 − 28.02.2019
1.3
1.3
1.2
1.71.4
1.6
1.8 2.62.1
2.61.8
2
1.6
2.1
1.51.71.8
2.22.2
21.82.3
2.6
3.31.3
2.4
3.6
2.4
3.44.2
2.5
1.8
2.81.7
3.3
4.3
1.1
1.3
1.7
4.7
4.21.6
1.7
1.8
1.9
1.83.4
2.6
1.63.4
2.82.12.4
1.9
3.3
3.6
42.2
2.8
3
2.3
1.4
1.3
2
1.6
1
1.8
2.9
1.6
2.3
2.1
2.4
1.71.81.4
1.31.1
3.3
1.51.71.9
2.2
2.8
1.2
2
1.5
11.50.9
1.9
2.3
1.1 1.2
2.8
1.8
1.5
1.91.1
2.622.9 2.3
1.2
22.2
3.1
1.3
3.4
1.92
1.7
1.4
1.3
2.71.1
1.4
2.61.2
1.21.6
2.21.13.1
0.9
2.8
1.6
0.9
1.5
1.1
1
1.8
2.5
1.9
1.8 2.7
1.7
2.422.4
1.5
0.9
1.2
1.21.1
1
1.3
1.3
1.8
2.5
1.4
1.8
2.9
1.9
1.6
25
Dec 2018 to Feb 2019 Temperature 2m
−30
−25
−20
−15
−10
−5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
MEPSctrl 00+24SDE at observing sites(numbers in black)
Model "climatology" 01.12.2018 − 28.02.2019
1.4
1.8
1.4
2.32.1
2
1.8 3.13.1
2.62.3
2.5
1.6
2.41.72.51.8
2.52.4
2.72.22.9
2.9
41.3
3.6
4.3
4.1
4.46.2
2.5
2.3
2.92.1
4.2
5.2
1.1
1.82.2
5.8
4.41.5
2.4
2.2
2.533.8
3.2
1.34.2
2.72.92.7
2.2
4
3.8
5.12.3
3
4.8
2.6
2.1
1.6
2.2
2.1
1.1
1.8
3.3
1.3
2.1
2.5
3.5
1.832
1.91.2
3.6
1.32.31.8
2.1
3.7
1.3
3.4
2
1.11.50.8
2.4
2.4
1.4 1.3
2.8
2.4
1.9
2.91.4
2.42 3 2.6
1.1
1.82.3
3.4
1.7
3.6
2.12.3
2.5
1.8
1.4
3.11.5
1.7
2.91.4
1.51.9
2.2
1.43.2
1
3
1.8
0.9
1.8
1.2
1.2
2.8
2.6
3.4
2.3 2.9
2.4
32.52.9
1.8
0.9
1.4
1.31.1
1.2
1.8
1.5
3.1
3.2
1.7
2
3.9
3.6
2
26
Dec 2018 to Feb 2019 Temperature 2m
Nov 30 Dec 05 Dec 10 Dec 15 Dec 20 Dec 25 Dec 30
−25
−20
−15
−10
−5
0
idate
01.12.2018 − 31.12.2018
Cels
ius
Jan 04 Jan 09 Jan 14 Jan 19 Jan 24 Jan 29
−25
−20
−15
−10
−5
0
idate
01.01.2019 − 31.01.2019
Cels
ius
Feb 03 Feb 08 Feb 13 Feb 18 Feb 23 Feb 28
−25
−20
−15
−10
−5
0
idate
01.02.2019 − 28.02.2019
Cels
ius
Min Mean Max Std N
synop: 00,06,12,18 −24.5 −9 3.3 6.7 360
AA25: 12+18,+24,+30,+36 −24.1 −9.8 2.4 6.4 360
ECMWF: 12+18,+24,+30,+36 −23.4 −10.9 0.2 5.9 360
ME SDE RMSE MAE Max.abs.err. N
AA25 − synop −0.9 2 2.1 1.7 8.6 360
ECMWF − synop −2 1.8 2.6 2.3 7.4 360
01.12.2018 − 28.02.2019
SVALBARD LUFTHAVN
27
Dec 2018 to Feb 2019 Temperature 2m
Nov 30 Dec 05 Dec 10 Dec 15 Dec 20 Dec 25 Dec 30
−15
−10
−5
0
5
idate
01.12.2018 − 31.12.2018
Cels
ius
Jan 04 Jan 09 Jan 14 Jan 19 Jan 24 Jan 29
−15
−10
−5
0
5
idate
01.01.2019 − 31.01.2019
Cels
ius
Feb 03 Feb 08 Feb 13 Feb 18 Feb 23 Feb 28
−15
−10
−5
0
5
idate
01.02.2019 − 28.02.2019
Cels
ius
Min Mean Max Std N
synop: 00,06,12,18 −17.1 −3.2 4.4 4.1 360
AA25: 12+18,+24,+30,+36 −14.5 −2.6 4 3.9 360
ECMWF: 12+18,+24,+30,+36 −13.3 −2.6 4.9 4 360
ME SDE RMSE MAE Max.abs.err. N
AA25 − synop 0.5 1 1.2 0.8 6.5 360
ECMWF − synop 0.5 1.1 1.2 0.9 8.3 360
01.12.2018 − 28.02.2019
BJØRNØYA
28
Dec 2018 to Feb 2019 Temperature 2m
Nov 30 Dec 05 Dec 10 Dec 15 Dec 20 Dec 25 Dec 30
−20
−15
−10
−5
0
5
idate
01.12.2018 − 31.12.2018
Cels
ius
Jan 04 Jan 09 Jan 14 Jan 19 Jan 24 Jan 29
−20
−15
−10
−5
0
5
idate
01.01.2019 − 31.01.2019
Cels
ius
Feb 03 Feb 08 Feb 13 Feb 18 Feb 23 Feb 28
−20
−15
−10
−5
0
5
idate
01.02.2019 − 28.02.2019
Cels
ius
Min Mean Max Std N
synop: 00,06,12,18 −13.7 −2.8 5.5 4.2 360
MEPSctrl: 12+18,+24,+30,+36 −13.9 −2.4 6.1 4.2 360
AA25: 12+18,+24,+30,+36 −14.9 −3 6.2 4.6 360
ECMWF: 12+18,+24,+30,+36 −23.6 −7.2 4 5.9 360
ME SDE RMSE MAE Max.abs.err. N
MEPSctrl − synop 0.4 1.5 1.5 1.2 5.3 360
AA25 − synop −0.2 1.6 1.6 1.2 6.4 360
ECMWF − synop −4.4 2.8 5.2 4.4 11.8 360
01.12.2018 − 28.02.2019
TROMSØ
29
Dec 2018 to Feb 2019 Temperature 2m
Nov 30 Dec 05 Dec 10 Dec 15 Dec 20 Dec 25 Dec 30
−40
−30
−20
−10
0
idate
01.12.2018 − 31.12.2018
Cels
ius
Jan 04 Jan 09 Jan 14 Jan 19 Jan 24 Jan 29
−40
−30
−20
−10
0
idate
01.01.2019 − 31.01.2019
Cels
ius
Feb 03 Feb 08 Feb 13 Feb 18 Feb 23 Feb 28
−40
−30
−20
−10
0
idate
01.02.2019 − 28.02.2019
Cels
ius
Min Mean Max Std N
synop: 00,06,12,18 −39.2 −14.3 6.3 10 360
MEPSctrl: 12+18,+24,+30,+36 −36.5 −14.2 2.1 9 360
AA25: 12+18,+24,+30,+36 −35.5 −14 2.3 8.8 360
ECMWF: 12+18,+24,+30,+36 −29.9 −11 4 7 360
ME SDE RMSE MAE Max.abs.err. N
MEPSctrl − synop 0.1 5.1 5.1 3.9 16.5 360
AA25 − synop 0.3 5 5 3.8 16.2 360
ECMWF − synop 3.3 4.9 6 4.3 19.6 360
01.12.2018 − 28.02.2019
KAUTOKEINO
30
Dec 2018 to Feb 2019 Temperature 2m
Nov 30 Dec 05 Dec 10 Dec 15 Dec 20 Dec 25 Dec 30
−5
0
5
10
idate
01.12.2018 − 31.12.2018
Cels
ius
Jan 04 Jan 09 Jan 14 Jan 19 Jan 24 Jan 29
−5
0
5
10
idate
01.01.2019 − 31.01.2019
Cels
ius
Feb 03 Feb 08 Feb 13 Feb 18 Feb 23 Feb 28
−5
0
5
10
idate
01.02.2019 − 28.02.2019
Cels
ius
Min Mean Max Std N
synop: 00,06,12,18 −8.7 1.7 9.5 3.8 360
MEPSctrl: 12+18,+24,+30,+36 −7.2 1.5 8.5 3.5 360
ECMWF: 12+18,+24,+30,+36 −5.7 2.3 8.4 3.4 360
ME SDE RMSE MAE Max.abs.err. N
MEPSctrl − synop −0.2 1.3 1.3 1 5.5 360
ECMWF − synop 0.6 1.2 1.4 1 5.7 360
01.12.2018 − 28.02.2019
ØRLAND III
31
Dec 2018 to Feb 2019 Temperature 2m
Nov 30 Dec 05 Dec 10 Dec 15 Dec 20 Dec 25 Dec 30
−10
−5
0
5
10
idate
01.12.2018 − 31.12.2018
Cels
ius
Jan 04 Jan 09 Jan 14 Jan 19 Jan 24 Jan 29
−10
−5
0
5
10
idate
01.01.2019 − 31.01.2019
Cels
ius
Feb 03 Feb 08 Feb 13 Feb 18 Feb 23 Feb 28
−10
−5
0
5
10
idate
01.02.2019 − 28.02.2019
Cels
ius
Min Mean Max Std N
synop: 00,06,12,18 −5 4.1 12.3 3 360
MEPSctrl: 12+18,+24,+30,+36 −4.6 2.4 9.2 2.7 360
ECMWF: 12+18,+24,+30,+36 −11 1.6 10 3.6 360
ME SDE RMSE MAE Max.abs.err. N
MEPSctrl − synop −1.7 1.4 2.2 1.8 6.7 360
ECMWF − synop −2.5 1.7 3 2.6 10.7 360
01.12.2018 − 28.02.2019
BERGEN − FLORIDA
32
Dec 2018 to Feb 2019 Temperature 2m
Nov 30 Dec 05 Dec 10 Dec 15 Dec 20 Dec 25 Dec 30
−20
−15
−10
−5
0
5
idate
01.12.2018 − 31.12.2018
Cels
ius
Jan 04 Jan 09 Jan 14 Jan 19 Jan 24 Jan 29
−20
−15
−10
−5
0
5
idate
01.01.2019 − 31.01.2019
Cels
ius
Feb 03 Feb 08 Feb 13 Feb 18 Feb 23 Feb 28
−20
−15
−10
−5
0
5
idate
01.02.2019 − 28.02.2019
Cels
ius
Min Mean Max Std N
synop: 00,06,12,18 −22.6 −6.2 6.2 5.3 360
MEPSctrl: 12+18,+24,+30,+36 −16.2 −7.1 3.2 4.4 360
ECMWF: 12+18,+24,+30,+36 −16.4 −7.9 1.9 4.3 360
ME SDE RMSE MAE Max.abs.err. N
MEPSctrl − synop −0.9 2.5 2.7 2 11.1 360
ECMWF − synop −1.7 2.8 3.3 2.7 13.2 360
01.12.2018 − 28.02.2019
FINSEVATN
33
Dec 2018 to Feb 2019 Temperature 2m
Nov 30 Dec 05 Dec 10 Dec 15 Dec 20 Dec 25 Dec 30
−20
−15
−10
−5
0
5
10
idate
01.12.2018 − 31.12.2018
Cels
ius
Jan 04 Jan 09 Jan 14 Jan 19 Jan 24 Jan 29
−20
−15
−10
−5
0
5
10
idate
01.01.2019 − 31.01.2019
Cels
ius
Feb 03 Feb 08 Feb 13 Feb 18 Feb 23 Feb 28
−20
−15
−10
−5
0
5
10
idate
01.02.2019 − 28.02.2019
Cels
ius
Min Mean Max Std N
synop: 00,06,12,18 −21.5 −5.7 10.6 6.5 360
MEPSctrl: 12+18,+24,+30,+36 −17 −3.9 9.5 5.1 360
ECMWF: 12+18,+24,+30,+36 −21.8 −7.1 6.8 5.9 360
ME SDE RMSE MAE Max.abs.err. N
MEPSctrl − synop 1.8 3.8 4.2 3.4 10.3 360
ECMWF − synop −1.4 3.5 3.8 3 10.9 360
01.12.2018 − 28.02.2019
NESBYEN − TODOKK
34
Dec 2018 to Feb 2019 Temperature 2m
Nov 30 Dec 05 Dec 10 Dec 15 Dec 20 Dec 25 Dec 30
2
4
6
8
10
idate
01.12.2018 − 31.12.2018
Cels
ius
Jan 04 Jan 09 Jan 14 Jan 19 Jan 24 Jan 29
2
4
6
8
10
idate
01.01.2019 − 31.01.2019
Cels
ius
Feb 03 Feb 08 Feb 13 Feb 18 Feb 23 Feb 28
2
4
6
8
10
idate
01.02.2019 − 28.02.2019
Cels
ius
Min Mean Max Std N
synop: 00,06,12,18 1.4 6.5 10.5 1.7 360
MEPSctrl: 12+18,+24,+30,+36 2.5 7 9.9 1.4 360
ECMWF: 12+18,+24,+30,+36 2.7 7.1 10.7 1.5 360
ME SDE RMSE MAE Max.abs.err. N
MEPSctrl − synop 0.4 0.8 0.9 0.7 3.9 360
ECMWF − synop 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.7 3 360
01.12.2018 − 28.02.2019
EKOFISK
35
Dec 2018 to Feb 2019 Temperature 2m
Nov 30 Dec 05 Dec 10 Dec 15 Dec 20 Dec 25 Dec 30
−10
−5
0
5
10
idate
01.12.2018 − 31.12.2018
Cels
ius
Jan 04 Jan 09 Jan 14 Jan 19 Jan 24 Jan 29
−10
−5
0
5
10
idate
01.01.2019 − 31.01.2019
Cels
ius
Feb 03 Feb 08 Feb 13 Feb 18 Feb 23 Feb 28
−10
−5
0
5
10
idate
01.02.2019 − 28.02.2019
Cels
ius
Min Mean Max Std N
synop: 00,06,12,18 −4.3 4.1 11.3 3 360
MEPSctrl: 12+18,+24,+30,+36 −4.8 3.3 9.6 3 360
ECMWF: 12+18,+24,+30,+36 −9.3 3.3 9.4 3.1 360
ME SDE RMSE MAE Max.abs.err. N
MEPSctrl − synop −0.8 1.3 1.5 1.2 5.2 360
ECMWF − synop −0.7 1.3 1.5 1.2 5.8 360
01.12.2018 − 28.02.2019
SOLA
36
Dec 2018 to Feb 2019 Temperature 2m
Nov 30 Dec 05 Dec 10 Dec 15 Dec 20 Dec 25 Dec 30
−4
−2
0
2
4
6
8
idate
01.12.2018 − 31.12.2018
Cels
ius
Jan 04 Jan 09 Jan 14 Jan 19 Jan 24 Jan 29
−4
−2
0
2
4
6
8
idate
01.01.2019 − 31.01.2019
Cels
ius
Feb 03 Feb 08 Feb 13 Feb 18 Feb 23 Feb 28
−4
−2
0
2
4
6
8
idate
01.02.2019 − 28.02.2019
Cels
ius
Min Mean Max Std N
synop: 00,06,12,18 −5.4 2.3 8.3 2.7 360
MEPSctrl: 12+18,+24,+30,+36 −3.8 2.3 7.9 2.4 360
ECMWF: 12+18,+24,+30,+36 −4.3 2.4 8.4 2.6 360
ME SDE RMSE MAE Max.abs.err. N
MEPSctrl − synop 0 1.2 1.2 0.9 5.2 360
ECMWF − synop 0.1 1.2 1.2 0.9 4.4 360
01.12.2018 − 28.02.2019
FÆRDER FYR
37
Dec 2018 to Feb 2019 Temperature 2m
Nov 30 Dec 05 Dec 10 Dec 15 Dec 20 Dec 25 Dec 30
−15
−10
−5
0
5
10
idate
01.12.2018 − 31.12.2018
Cels
ius
Jan 04 Jan 09 Jan 14 Jan 19 Jan 24 Jan 29
−15
−10
−5
0
5
10
idate
01.01.2019 − 31.01.2019
Cels
ius
Feb 03 Feb 08 Feb 13 Feb 18 Feb 23 Feb 28
−15
−10
−5
0
5
10
idate
01.02.2019 − 28.02.2019
Cels
ius
Min Mean Max Std N
synop: 00,06,12,18 −13.1 −1.2 11.1 4 360
MEPSctrl: 12+18,+24,+30,+36 −12.4 −1.2 7.9 3.8 360
ECMWF: 12+18,+24,+30,+36 −14.9 −2.6 6.6 4.1 360
ME SDE RMSE MAE Max.abs.err. N
MEPSctrl − synop 0 1.8 1.8 1.3 6.1 360
ECMWF − synop −1.4 1.8 2.2 1.7 7.2 360
01.12.2018 − 28.02.2019
OSLO − BLINDERN
38
Dec 2018 to Feb 2019 Post processed temperature 2m (YrPP)
Lead time (hour)
Mean Error
4 9 15 22 29 36 43 50 57 64
−1.5
−1.0
−0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
262 Nor. stations 00+4,+5,...,+66
MEPSctrl YrPP
Lead time (hour)
Standard Deviation of Error
4 9 15 22 29 36 43 50 57 64
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
262 Nor. stations 00+4,+5,...,+66
Lead time (hour)
Mean Absolute Error
4 9 15 22 29 36 43 50 57 64
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
262 Nor. stations 00+4,+5,...,+66
Lead time (hour)
Mean Error
4 9 15 22 29 36 43 50 57 64
−1.5
−1.0
−0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
40 Nor. coastal stations 00+4,+5,...,+66
MEPSctrl YrPP
Lead time (hour)
Standard Deviation of Error
4 9 15 22 29 36 43 50 57 64
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
40 Nor. coastal stations 00+4,+5,...,+66
Lead time (hour)
Mean Absolute Error
4 9 15 22 29 36 43 50 57 64
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
40 Nor. coastal stations 00+4,+5,...,+66
Lead time (hour)
Mean Error
4 9 15 22 29 36 43 50 57 64
−1.5
−1.0
−0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
131 Nor. inland stations 00+4,+5,...,+66
MEPSctrl YrPP
Lead time (hour)
Standard Deviation of Error
4 9 15 22 29 36 43 50 57 64
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
131 Nor. inland stations 00+4,+5,...,+66
Lead time (hour)
Mean Absolute Error
4 9 15 22 29 36 43 50 57 64
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
131 Nor. inland stations 00+4,+5,...,+66
39
Dec 2018 to Feb 2019 Wind speed 10m
Lead time (hour)
Mean Error
3 9 15 24 33 42 51 60
−1.5
−1.0
−0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
219 Nor. stations 00+3,+6,...,+66
MEPSctrl ECMWF
Lead time (hour)
Standard Deviation of Error
3 9 15 24 33 42 51 60
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
219 Nor. stations 00+3,+6,...,+66
Lead time (hour)
Mean Absolute Error
3 9 15 24 33 42 51 60
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
219 Nor. stations 00+3,+6,...,+66
Exceedance threshold (m/s)
3 5 8 11 14 17 21
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Hit Rate
00+18,+24,+30,+36295 Nor. stations
MEPSctrl ECMWF
Exceedance threshold (m/s)
3 5 8 11 14 17 21
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
False Alarm Rate
00+18,+24,+30,+36
Exceedance threshold (m/s)
3 5 8 11 14 17 21
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
False Alarm Ratio
00+18,+24,+30,+36
Exceedance threshold (m/s)
3 5 8 11 14 17 21
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Equitable Threat Score
00+18,+24,+30,+36295 Nor. stations
MEPSctrl ECMWF
Exceedance threshold (m/s)
3 5 8 11 14 17 21
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Hansen−Kuiper Skill Score
00+18,+24,+30,+36
Exceedance threshold (m/s)
3 5 8 11 14 17 21
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Heidke Skill Score
00+18,+24,+30,+36
40
Dec 2018 to Feb 2019 Wind speed 10m
Lead time (hour)
Mean Error
3 9 15 24 33 42 51 60
−1.5
−1.0
−0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
13 Svalbard stations 00+3,+6,...,+66
AA25 ECMWF
Lead time (hour)
Standard Deviation of Error
3 9 15 24 33 42 51 60
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
13 Svalbard stations 00+3,+6,...,+66
Lead time (hour)
Mean Absolute Error
3 9 15 24 33 42 51 60
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
13 Svalbard stations 00+3,+6,...,+66
Exceedance threshold (m/s)
3 5 8 11 14 17 21
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Hit Rate
00+18,+24,+30,+3614 Svalbard stations
AA25 ECMWF
Exceedance threshold (m/s)
3 5 8 11 14 17 21
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
False Alarm Rate
00+18,+24,+30,+36
Exceedance threshold (m/s)
3 5 8 11 14 17 21
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
False Alarm Ratio
00+18,+24,+30,+36
Exceedance threshold (m/s)
3 5 8 11 14 17 21
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Equitable Threat Score
00+18,+24,+30,+3614 Svalbard stations
AA25 ECMWF
Exceedance threshold (m/s)
3 5 8 11 14 17 21
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Hansen−Kuiper Skill Score
00+18,+24,+30,+36
Exceedance threshold (m/s)
3 5 8 11 14 17 21
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Heidke Skill Score
00+18,+24,+30,+36
41
Dec 2018 to Feb 2019 Wind speed 10m
Lead time (hour)
Mean Error
3 9 15 24 33 42 51 60
−1.5
−1.0
−0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
71 North Scand. stations 00+3,+6,...,+66
AA25
MEPSctrl
ECMWF
Lead time (hour)
Standard Deviation of Error
3 9 15 24 33 42 51 60
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
71 North Scand. stations 00+3,+6,...,+66
Lead time (hour)
Mean Absolute Error
3 9 15 24 33 42 51 60
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
71 North Scand. stations 00+3,+6,...,+66
Exceedance threshold (m/s)
3 5 8 11 14 17 21
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Hit Rate
00+18,+24,+30,+3686 North Scand. stations
AA25
MEPSctrl
ECMWF
Exceedance threshold (m/s)
3 5 8 11 14 17 21
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
False Alarm Rate
00+18,+24,+30,+36
Exceedance threshold (m/s)
3 5 8 11 14 17 21
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
False Alarm Ratio
00+18,+24,+30,+36
Exceedance threshold (m/s)
3 5 8 11 14 17 21
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Equitable Threat Score
00+18,+24,+30,+3686 North Scand. stations
AA25
MEPSctrl
ECMWF
Exceedance threshold (m/s)
3 5 8 11 14 17 21
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Hansen−Kuiper Skill Score
00+18,+24,+30,+36
Exceedance threshold (m/s)
3 5 8 11 14 17 21
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Heidke Skill Score
00+18,+24,+30,+36
42
Dec 2018 to Feb 2019 Wind speed 10m
Dec15 Mar16 Jun16 Sep16 Dec16 Mar17 Jun17 Sep17 Dec17 Mar18 Jun18 Sep18 Dec18
−5
−4
−3
−2
−1
0
1
200+24,+30,+36,+42 UTC
ECMWF AM25 MEPSctrl
151 Norwegian stations
Dec15 Mar16 Jun16 Sep16 Dec16 Mar17 Jun17 Sep17 Dec17 Mar18 Jun18 Sep18 Dec18
−5
−4
−3
−2
−1
0
1
240 Norwegian coastal stations
Dec15 Mar16 Jun16 Sep16 Dec16 Mar17 Jun17 Sep17 Dec17 Mar18 Jun18 Sep18 Dec18
−5
−4
−3
−2
−1
0
1
210 Norwegian mountainous stations
Mean Error
43
Dec 2018 to Feb 2019 Wind speed 10m
Dec15 Mar16 Jun16 Sep16 Dec16 Mar17 Jun17 Sep17 Dec17 Mar18 Jun18 Sep18 Dec18
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
00+24,+30,+36,+42 UTC
ECMWF AM25 MEPSctrl
151 Norwegian stations
Dec15 Mar16 Jun16 Sep16 Dec16 Mar17 Jun17 Sep17 Dec17 Mar18 Jun18 Sep18 Dec18
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
40 Norwegian coastal stations
Dec15 Mar16 Jun16 Sep16 Dec16 Mar17 Jun17 Sep17 Dec17 Mar18 Jun18 Sep18 Dec18
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
10 Norwegian mountainous stations
Standard Deviation of Error
44
Dec 2018 to Feb 2019 Wind speed 10m
Dec15 Mar16 Jun16 Sep16 Dec16 Mar17 Jun17 Sep17 Dec17 Mar18 Jun18 Sep18 Dec18
1
2
3
4
5
00+24,+30,+36,+42 UTC
ECMWF AM25 MEPSctrl
151 Norwegian stations
Dec15 Mar16 Jun16 Sep16 Dec16 Mar17 Jun17 Sep17 Dec17 Mar18 Jun18 Sep18 Dec18
1
2
3
4
5
40 Norwegian coastal stations
Dec15 Mar16 Jun16 Sep16 Dec16 Mar17 Jun17 Sep17 Dec17 Mar18 Jun18 Sep18 Dec18
1
2
3
4
5
10 Norwegian mountainous stations
Mean Absolute Error
45
Dec 2018 to Feb 2019 Wind speed 10m
0.0
1.5
3.4
5.4
7.9
10.7
13.8
MEPSctrl 00+12ME at observing sites(numbers in black)
Model "climatology" 01.12.2018 − 28.02.2019
0.5
0.1
−0.2
0.5
0.6
−0.6
−0.5
0.6
0.1
−0.1
−1.20.2
−0.4
−1.4
−0.4
−0.5
−0.3
−1.4
0.1
0
0.6
−0.2
−0.3
1.6
0
−0.70.6
0.2
−1
−1.30.6
−1.2
−0.8
−0.5−0.6
−0.3−0.1
0.8−0.5
−0.8−0.6−2.1−0.1
0
0.4
0.5−0.3
−0.6
−0.2
0.9
−0.3
0.5
0.810.9
1.6
2.2
−1.71.3
0.3−3.8
0.3
0.1−0.2−0.2
00.6
0.70.80.1
−0.6
0
0.2
−0.5
1.50.1
−0.2
−0.5
0.6
−0.2
−0.6
1
−0.7
−0.1
0.81.6
0.5
0.4
−0.8
1.1
0
−1.7
−1.4
0.4
−1.3
−0.8
2.11.3
1.5
0.2
−1.2
0.7−1.5
0.3
0.7
1.2
−0.1
−1.6
2.6
−3.7
0.2
0.52.30.4
0.3
2.2
0.9
2.2
0.9
1.3−0.31.3
0.4−0.5
−0.3−0.4
−1−0.4
−0.11.2
0.2 0.40.6
0.80.80.8
0.2−2.7
0.6−0.8
0.5
2.6
0.2
0.9
−3.5
−2.30.1
2.81.6
0.8−0.7
1.8−0.2
0.8
0.4
−0.3
0
−1
−0.50.9−2.8
−1.2 −2.30.3
−0.4
0.6
−4.2
0.80.1
0.6
0.4
−1.41.1
0.9
1.5
1
1.4
1.5
0.1
0.9
−0.4
0.7
0.2
−0.3
0.4
0.3
0.5
0.6
−0.1
1.6−1.1
−1.1
1.3
1.6
2.6
1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0
0.2
−1.70.5
0.8
0
0.5
0.5
0.7
2
2.1
0.6
2
46
Dec 2018 to Feb 2019 Wind speed 10m
0.0
1.5
3.4
5.4
7.9
10.7
13.8
MEPSctrl 00+12SDE at observing sites(numbers in black)
Model "climatology" 01.12.2018 − 28.02.2019
1
1.1
0.8
1.1
2.5
1.6
1.4
1.5
0.8
0.8
1.80.9
0.9
2
1
1.2
0.9
1.1
1.3
1.2
0.8
0.7
0.9
1.4
1
2.2
1.61.2
1.61.4
1.82
1.4
20.9
1
1.11.1
1.71.3
1.20.91.40.8
0.9
0.9
0.91.3
1.2
1.2
1.5
1.4
1.2
2.82.42.7
2.2
2.4
3.92.41.1
2.71.7
1.12.21.5
2.42.7
1.11.20.9
0.9
1.2
1.2
2
2.91.5
1.1
1.3
1
1.10.8
1.5
2.8
1.9
1.9
2.73.62.6
1.91.2
2.2
1.9
1.9
1.7
2.4
1.8
1.7
1.7
2 1.7
2.2
1.2
2.2
2.11.9
1.81.8
1.6
3.12.3
2.8
4.62.4
1.72.52.5
1.7
2.2
2.7
2.4
2.1
2.11.81.9
2.42.2
2.72.1
2.91.8
23.1
2.2 32.6
2.52.12.2
23.8
22.2
3.1
2.3
1.9
3.3
3.2
3.62.7
2.533.6 2.8
2.72.2
1.8
2.8
1.8
1.7
1.6
3.32.53.8
2.5 2.92.4
2.4
1.3
2.7
2.13 2.9
1.7
3.12.6
2.1
1.3
2
1.9
1.7
0.9
0.9
1
0.8
0.8
1.5
1
0.8
0.8
2
1.3
2.91.4
2.8
2.5
1.7
2.3
1.7
2.1
1.9
1.9
1.1
1.1
3.70.9
2
1.3
1.2
1.91.1
2.8
2.6
1.2
3.2
47
Dec 2018 to Feb 2019 Wind speed 10m
0.0
1.5
3.4
5.4
7.9
10.7
13.8
MEPSctrl 00+12ME at observing sites(numbers in black)
Model "climatology" 01.12.2018 − 28.02.2019
−0.8
−0.5
−0.3
−0.6
−0.3−0.1
0.8−0.5
−0.8−0.6−2.1
−0.1
0
−0.3
−0.6
−0.2
−0.3
0.5
0.8
10.9
1.6
2.2
−1.71.3
0.3
−3.80.3
0.1
−0.2−0.2
00.6
0.70.80.1
−0.6
0
0.2
−0.5
1.50.1
−0.2
0.8
−0.5
0.6
−0.4−0.1
−0.2
1.8
−0.6
0.6
1
−0.73.30.8
0.7−0.8
1.1
0.60.30.5
−0.8
0.9
0.4
1.8
−0.80.6
−0.1
−0.2
1.9
−0.7
0.1
1.4
−1.7
−1.22.30.4−2.1
−1.1−0.6
−1.1−0.7
−0.3
−0.41.2
0.4
0.6
−0.31.10.5
−0.30.4
1.1
−1.2
−0.40.3
0.7−0.1
0
2
−0.5
−2.1
−0.40.7
−1
−0.1
−0.3
0.7−2.4
−4
10.2
0.3−0.4
0.81.6
−1
0.5
0.4
−0.8
1.1
0
−1.7
−1.4
0.4
−1.3
−0.8
2.11.3
1.5
0.2
−1.2
−1.5
1.2
1
1.4
1.5
1.4
0.8
0.6
1.8
0.2
0
0.5
1.1−0.3
0.4
0.7
48
Dec 2018 to Feb 2019 Wind speed 10m
0.0
1.5
3.4
5.4
7.9
10.7
13.8
MEPSctrl 00+12SDE at observing sites(numbers in black)
Model "climatology" 01.12.2018 − 28.02.2019
2
0.9
1.4
1
1.11.1
1.71.3
1.20.91.4
0.8
0.9
0.9
1.3
1.2
1.2
1.4
1.2
2.82.42.7
2.2
2.4
3.92.4
1.12.7
1.7
1.12.21.5
2.42.7
1.11.20.9
0.9
1.2
1.2
2
2.91.5
1.1
2.1
1.3
1
1.91.1
1.1
1.9
0.8
1.3
1.5
2.83.42.2
1.31.6
1.1
1.81.21.81.7
1.7
2.6
2.6
1.41.6
2.22.3
2.3
2.6
1.6
1.4
1.9
1.32.21.72.2
1.42
1.61.9
1.71.7
2.2
2.2
2.3
2.62.21.4
2.91.62.4
2
22.8
2.8 2.3
1.9
3.2
1.4
3.5
1.81.2
1.9
1.9
2.4
1.41.8
2.7
2.73.5
2.5 1.9
3.62.6
2
1.9
1.2
2.2
1.9
1.9
1.7
2.4
1.8
1.7
1.7
2 1.7
2.2
1.2
2.2
2.11.9
1.6
2
1.9
1.7
1.3
2.2
1.5
2.6
1.4
1.5
0.9
1.8
1.5
0.8
49
Dec 2018 to Feb 2019 Wind speed 10m
0.0
1.5
3.4
5.4
7.9
10.7
13.8
MEPSctrl 00+12ME at observing sites(numbers in black)
Model "climatology" 01.12.2018 − 28.02.2019
−0.8
−0.5
−0.3
−0.6
−0.3−0.1
0.8−0.5
−0.8−0.6−2.1
−0.1
0
0.4
0.5
−0.3
−0.6
−0.2
0.9
−0.3
0.5
0.8
10.9
1.6
2.2
−1.71.3
0.3
−3.8
0.3
0.1
−0.2−0.2
00.6
0.70.8
0.1
−0.6
0
0.2
−0.5
1.5
0.1
−0.2
0.8
−0.5
0.6
−0.4
−0.1
−0.2
1.8
−0.6
0.6
1
−0.73.30.8
0.7−0.8
1.1
0.60.30.5
−0.8
0.9
0.4
1.8
−0.8
0.6−0.2
1.9
1.2
0.4
0.6
−0.31.1
0.5
−0.3
0.7−0.1
0
2
−0.40.7
−1
−0.1
0.7−2.4
−4
10.2
0.3−0.4
0.81.6
−1
0.5
0.4
−0.8
1.1
−1.7
0.4
−1.3
−0.8
2.1 1.3
1.5
0.7−1.5
0
−0.1
1.1−0.3
0.4
−0.4
0.7
0.7
0.4
1.6
1.3
2.6
1
50
Dec 2018 to Feb 2019 Wind speed 10m
0.0
1.5
3.4
5.4
7.9
10.7
13.8
MEPSctrl 00+12SDE at observing sites(numbers in black)
Model "climatology" 01.12.2018 − 28.02.2019
2
0.9
1.4
1
1.11.1
1.71.3
1.20.91.4
0.8
0.9
0.9
0.9
1.3
1.2
1.2
1.5
1.4
1.2
2.8
2.42.7
2.2
2.4
3.92.4
1.1
2.7
1.7
1.1
2.21.5
2.42.7
1.11.2
0.9
0.9
1.2
1.2
2
2.91.5
1.1
2.1
1.3
1
1.91.1
1.1
1.9
0.8
1.3
1.5
2.83.42.2
1.31.6
1.1
1.81.21.8
1.7
1.7
2.6
2.6
1.4
1.62.3
2.3
2.2
2.2
2.3
2.62.2 1.4
2.9
2.8 2.3
1.9
3.2
1.81.2
1.9
1.9
1.41.8
2.7
2.73.5
2.51.9
3.62.6
2
1.9
1.2
2.2
1.9
1.7
1.8
1.7
1.7
2 1.7
2.2
2.11.9
1.5
1.1
11.8
1.5
1
0.8
0.8
1
2.9
2.5
2.3
1.7
51
Dec 2018 to Feb 2019 Wind speed 10m
Nov 30 Dec 05 Dec 10 Dec 15 Dec 20 Dec 25 Dec 30
0
5
10
15
20
25
idate
01.12.2018 − 31.12.2018
m/s
Jan 04 Jan 09 Jan 14 Jan 19 Jan 24 Jan 29
0
5
10
15
20
25
idate
01.01.2019 − 31.01.2019
m/s
Feb 03 Feb 08 Feb 13 Feb 18 Feb 23 Feb 28
0
5
10
15
20
25
idate
01.02.2019 − 28.02.2019
m/s
Min Mean Max Std N
synop: 00,06,12,18 0.4 6.3 19.8 3.2 360
AA25: 12+18,+24,+30,+36 0.3 6.4 27.3 3.7 360
ECMWF: 12+18,+24,+30,+36 0.2 3.6 11.5 1.7 360
ME SDE RMSE MAE Max.abs.err. N
AA25 − synop 0.2 2.8 2.8 2 11.4 360
ECMWF − synop −2.7 2.1 3.4 2.9 10.7 360
01.12.2018 − 28.02.2019
SVALBARD LUFTHAVN
52
Dec 2018 to Feb 2019 Wind speed 10m
Nov 30 Dec 05 Dec 10 Dec 15 Dec 20 Dec 25 Dec 30
0
5
10
15
20
idate
01.12.2018 − 31.12.2018
m/s
Jan 04 Jan 09 Jan 14 Jan 19 Jan 24 Jan 29
0
5
10
15
20
idate
01.01.2019 − 31.01.2019
m/s
Feb 03 Feb 08 Feb 13 Feb 18 Feb 23 Feb 28
0
5
10
15
20
idate
01.02.2019 − 28.02.2019
m/s
Min Mean Max Std N
synop: 00,06,12,18 0.9 8 22.4 3.4 360
AA25: 12+18,+24,+30,+36 0.6 8.4 22 3.6 360
ECMWF: 12+18,+24,+30,+36 1.1 7.9 20.2 3.3 360
ME SDE RMSE MAE Max.abs.err. N
AA25 − synop 0.3 2.4 2.4 1.8 10.8 360
ECMWF − synop −0.1 1.8 1.8 1.4 7 360
01.12.2018 − 28.02.2019
BJØRNØYA
53
Dec 2018 to Feb 2019 Wind speed 10m
Nov 30 Dec 05 Dec 10 Dec 15 Dec 20 Dec 25 Dec 30
0
5
10
15
idate
01.12.2018 − 31.12.2018
m/s
Jan 04 Jan 09 Jan 14 Jan 19 Jan 24 Jan 29
0
5
10
15
idate
01.01.2019 − 31.01.2019
m/s
Feb 03 Feb 08 Feb 13 Feb 18 Feb 23 Feb 28
0
5
10
15
idate
01.02.2019 − 28.02.2019
m/s
Min Mean Max Std N
synop: 00,06,12,18 0.1 3.9 11.3 2.4 360
MEPSctrl: 12+18,+24,+30,+36 0.1 4.8 15.6 3.2 360
AA25: 12+18,+24,+30,+36 0.2 4.1 13.8 2.7 360
ECMWF: 12+18,+24,+30,+36 0.3 2.5 7.5 1.2 360
ME SDE RMSE MAE Max.abs.err. N
MEPSctrl − synop 0.8 2.4 2.5 1.8 9.1 360
AA25 − synop 0.1 2.2 2.2 1.6 8.8 360
ECMWF − synop −1.5 1.9 2.4 1.8 6.8 360
01.12.2018 − 28.02.2019
TROMSØ
54
Dec 2018 to Feb 2019 Wind speed 10m
Nov 30 Dec 05 Dec 10 Dec 15 Dec 20 Dec 25 Dec 30
0
5
10
15
20
idate
01.12.2018 − 31.12.2018
m/s
Jan 04 Jan 09 Jan 14 Jan 19 Jan 24 Jan 29
0
5
10
15
20
idate
01.01.2019 − 31.01.2019
m/s
Feb 03 Feb 08 Feb 13 Feb 18 Feb 23 Feb 28
0
5
10
15
20
idate
01.02.2019 − 28.02.2019
m/s
Min Mean Max Std N
synop: 00,06,12,18 0 7.8 20.2 3.9 360
MEPSctrl: 12+18,+24,+30,+36 0.4 7.7 18.5 3.6 360
AA25: 12+18,+24,+30,+36 0.7 7.7 17.7 3.4 360
ECMWF: 12+18,+24,+30,+36 0.7 7.5 17 3.1 360
ME SDE RMSE MAE Max.abs.err. N
MEPSctrl − synop −0.1 2.9 2.9 2.2 11 360
AA25 − synop −0.1 2.9 2.9 2.2 10.3 360
ECMWF − synop −0.3 2.8 2.8 2.2 9.4 360
01.12.2018 − 28.02.2019
SLETTNES FYR
55
Dec 2018 to Feb 2019 Wind speed 10m
Nov 30 Dec 05 Dec 10 Dec 15 Dec 20 Dec 25 Dec 30
0
5
10
15
20
idate
01.12.2018 − 31.12.2018
m/s
Jan 04 Jan 09 Jan 14 Jan 19 Jan 24 Jan 29
0
5
10
15
20
idate
01.01.2019 − 31.01.2019
m/s
Feb 03 Feb 08 Feb 13 Feb 18 Feb 23 Feb 28
0
5
10
15
20
idate
01.02.2019 − 28.02.2019
m/s
Min Mean Max Std N
synop: 00,06,12,18 1.1 8.1 20.8 3.6 360
MEPSctrl: 12+18,+24,+30,+36 0.1 6.6 16.6 3.3 360
ECMWF: 12+18,+24,+30,+36 0.6 8.1 18.5 3.4 360
ME SDE RMSE MAE Max.abs.err. N
MEPSctrl − synop −1.5 2.2 2.6 2.1 7 360
ECMWF − synop 0 2 2 1.5 9.2 360
01.12.2018 − 28.02.2019
ØRLAND III
56
Dec 2018 to Feb 2019 Wind speed 10m
Nov 30 Dec 05 Dec 10 Dec 15 Dec 20 Dec 25 Dec 30
0
5
10
15
20
idate
01.12.2018 − 31.12.2018
m/s
Jan 04 Jan 09 Jan 14 Jan 19 Jan 24 Jan 29
0
5
10
15
20
idate
01.01.2019 − 31.01.2019
m/s
Feb 03 Feb 08 Feb 13 Feb 18 Feb 23 Feb 28
0
5
10
15
20
idate
01.02.2019 − 28.02.2019
m/s
Min Mean Max Std N
synop: 00,06,12,18 0.5 9.2 22.3 4.4 360
MEPSctrl: 12+18,+24,+30,+36 1.1 9.3 21 4 360
ECMWF: 12+18,+24,+30,+36 1 9.1 20.3 3.7 360
ME SDE RMSE MAE Max.abs.err. N
MEPSctrl − synop 0.1 2.8 2.8 2 12.8 360
ECMWF − synop −0.1 2.5 2.5 1.8 11.7 360
01.12.2018 − 28.02.2019
YTTERØYANE FYR
57
Dec 2018 to Feb 2019 Wind speed 10m
Nov 30 Dec 05 Dec 10 Dec 15 Dec 20 Dec 25 Dec 30
0
5
10
15
20
idate
01.12.2018 − 31.12.2018
m/s
Jan 04 Jan 09 Jan 14 Jan 19 Jan 24 Jan 29
0
5
10
15
20
idate
01.01.2019 − 31.01.2019
m/s
Feb 03 Feb 08 Feb 13 Feb 18 Feb 23 Feb 28
0
5
10
15
20
idate
01.02.2019 − 28.02.2019
m/s
Min Mean Max Std N
synop: 00,06,12,18 0.1 7 22.3 4.5 299
MEPSctrl: 12+18,+24,+30,+36 1.2 7.3 22.3 4.2 360
ECMWF: 12+18,+24,+30,+36 0.2 3.8 10.6 1.8 360
ME SDE RMSE MAE Max.abs.err. N
MEPSctrl − synop 0 2.6 2.6 2 8.4 299
ECMWF − synop −3.3 3.2 4.6 3.7 11.9 299
01.12.2018 − 28.02.2019
FINSEVATN
58
Dec 2018 to Feb 2019 Wind speed 10m
Nov 30 Dec 05 Dec 10 Dec 15 Dec 20 Dec 25 Dec 30
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
idate
01.12.2018 − 31.12.2018
m/s
Jan 04 Jan 09 Jan 14 Jan 19 Jan 24 Jan 29
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
idate
01.01.2019 − 31.01.2019
m/s
Feb 03 Feb 08 Feb 13 Feb 18 Feb 23 Feb 28
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
idate
01.02.2019 − 28.02.2019
m/s
Min Mean Max Std N
synop: 00,06,12,18 0 0.9 6 1 360
MEPSctrl: 12+18,+24,+30,+36 0.1 1.2 6.9 0.8 360
ECMWF: 12+18,+24,+30,+36 0.1 1.5 5.5 1 360
ME SDE RMSE MAE Max.abs.err. N
MEPSctrl − synop 0.3 1 1 0.7 4.8 360
ECMWF − synop 0.6 0.9 1.1 0.8 3.9 360
01.12.2018 − 28.02.2019
NESBYEN − TODOKK
59
Dec 2018 to Feb 2019 Wind speed 10m
Nov 30 Dec 05 Dec 10 Dec 15 Dec 20 Dec 25 Dec 30
0
5
10
15
20
idate
01.12.2018 − 31.12.2018
m/s
Jan 04 Jan 09 Jan 14 Jan 19 Jan 24 Jan 29
0
5
10
15
20
idate
01.01.2019 − 31.01.2019
m/s
Feb 03 Feb 08 Feb 13 Feb 18 Feb 23 Feb 28
0
5
10
15
20
idate
01.02.2019 − 28.02.2019
m/s
Min Mean Max Std N
synop: 00,06,12,18 1 8.7 22.1 3.7 359
MEPSctrl: 12+18,+24,+30,+36 0.2 9.4 22.6 4.1 360
ECMWF: 12+18,+24,+30,+36 0.8 9.1 21.6 3.9 360
ME SDE RMSE MAE Max.abs.err. N
MEPSctrl − synop 0.7 1.9 2 1.5 9.7 359
ECMWF − synop 0.5 1.7 1.7 1.3 9.4 359
01.12.2018 − 28.02.2019
EKOFISK
60
Dec 2018 to Feb 2019 Wind speed 10m
Nov 30 Dec 05 Dec 10 Dec 15 Dec 20 Dec 25 Dec 30
0
5
10
15
20
idate
01.12.2018 − 31.12.2018
m/s
Jan 04 Jan 09 Jan 14 Jan 19 Jan 24 Jan 29
0
5
10
15
20
idate
01.01.2019 − 31.01.2019
m/s
Feb 03 Feb 08 Feb 13 Feb 18 Feb 23 Feb 28
0
5
10
15
20
idate
01.02.2019 − 28.02.2019
m/s
Min Mean Max Std N
synop: 00,06,12,18 0 5.6 19.3 3.3 360
MEPSctrl: 12+18,+24,+30,+36 0.1 4.2 15.3 2.7 360
ECMWF: 12+18,+24,+30,+36 0.2 4.7 14.1 2.4 360
ME SDE RMSE MAE Max.abs.err. N
MEPSctrl − synop −1.4 1.7 2.2 1.7 8.6 360
ECMWF − synop −0.9 1.6 1.8 1.5 5.6 360
01.12.2018 − 28.02.2019
SOLA
61
Dec 2018 to Feb 2019 Wind speed 10m
Nov 30 Dec 05 Dec 10 Dec 15 Dec 20 Dec 25 Dec 30
0
5
10
15
20
idate
01.12.2018 − 31.12.2018
m/s
Jan 04 Jan 09 Jan 14 Jan 19 Jan 24 Jan 29
0
5
10
15
20
idate
01.01.2019 − 31.01.2019
m/s
Feb 03 Feb 08 Feb 13 Feb 18 Feb 23 Feb 28
0
5
10
15
20
idate
01.02.2019 − 28.02.2019
m/s
Min Mean Max Std N
synop: 00,06,12,18 0.5 7.3 19.5 3.5 360
MEPSctrl: 12+18,+24,+30,+36 0.5 7 15.9 3.3 360
ECMWF: 12+18,+24,+30,+36 0.3 6.7 15.2 3.2 360
ME SDE RMSE MAE Max.abs.err. N
MEPSctrl − synop −0.2 2.1 2.1 1.6 9.1 360
ECMWF − synop −0.6 1.8 1.9 1.5 8.2 360
01.12.2018 − 28.02.2019
FÆRDER FYR
62
Dec 2018 to Feb 2019 Post processed maximum mean wind speed 10m (YrPP)
Lead time (hour)
Mean Error
3 9 15 24 33 42 51 60
−1.5
−1.0
−0.5
0.0
0.5
204 Nor. stations 00+3,+6,...,+66
MEPSctrlYrPP
Lead time (hour)
Standard Deviation of Error
3 9 15 24 33 42 51 60
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
204 Nor. stations 00+3,+6,...,+66
Lead time (hour)
Mean Absolute Error
3 9 15 24 33 42 51 60
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
204 Nor. stations 00+3,+6,...,+66
Exceedance threshold (m/s)
3 5 8 11 14 17 21
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Hit Rate
208 Nor. stations 00+18,+24,+30,+36
Exceedance threshold (m/s)
3 5 8 11 14 17 21
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
False Alarm Rate
208 Nor. stations 00+18,+24,+30,+36
Exceedance threshold (m/s)
3 5 8 11 14 17 21
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
False Alarm Ratio
208 Nor. stations 00+18,+24,+30,+36
Exceedance threshold (m/s)
3 5 8 11 14 17 21
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Equitable Threat Score
208 Nor. stations 00+18,+24,+30,+36
MEPSctrlYrPP
Exceedance threshold (m/s)
3 5 8 11 14 17 21
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Hansen−Kuiper Skill Score
208 Nor. stations 00+18,+24,+30,+36
Exceedance threshold (m/s)
3 5 8 11 14 17 21
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Heidke Skill Score
208 Nor. stations 00+18,+24,+30,+36
63
Dec 2018 to Feb 2019 Wind gust (FG) and wind speed in 925 hpa (FF.925)
Lead time (hour)
Mean Error
3 9 15 24 33 42 51 60
−2
−1
0
1
2
3
205 Nor. stations 00+3,+6,...,+66
MEPSctrlFGMEPSctrlFF.925
Lead time (hour)
Standard Deviation of Error
3 9 15 24 33 42 51 60
1
2
3
4
5
205 Nor. stations 00+3,+6,...,+66
Lead time (hour)
Mean Absolute Error
3 9 15 24 33 42 51 60
1
2
3
4
5
205 Nor. stations 00+3,+6,...,+66
Exceedance threshold (m/s)
3 5 8 11 14 17 21
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Hit Rate
209 Nor. stations 00+18,+24,+30,+36
Exceedance threshold (m/s)
3 5 8 11 14 17 21
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
False Alarm Rate
209 Nor. stations 00+18,+24,+30,+36
Exceedance threshold (m/s)
3 5 8 11 14 17 21
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
False Alarm Ratio
209 Nor. stations 00+18,+24,+30,+36
Exceedance threshold (m/s)
3 5 8 11 14 17 21
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Equitable Threat Score
209 Nor. stations 00+18,+24,+30,+36
MEPSctrlFGMEPSctrlFF.925
Exceedance threshold (m/s)
3 5 8 11 14 17 21
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Hansen−Kuiper Skill Score
209 Nor. stations 00+18,+24,+30,+36
Exceedance threshold (m/s)
3 5 8 11 14 17 21
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Heidke Skill Score
209 Nor. stations 00+18,+24,+30,+36
64
Dec 2018 to Feb 2019 12 hour precipitation
Lead time (hour)
Mean Error
18 30 42 54 66
−1.5
−1.0
−0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
175 Nor. stations 00+18,+30,...,+66
MEPSctrl ECMWF
Lead time (hour)
Standard Deviation of Error
18 30 42 54 66
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
175 Nor. stations 00+18,+30,...,+66
Lead time (hour)
Mean Absolute Error
18 30 42 54 66
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
175 Nor. stations 00+18,+30,...,+66
Exceedance threshold (mm)
0 0.1 1 2 5 10 15 20
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Hit Rate
183 Nor. stations 00+18,+30,+42,+54,+66
MEPSctrl ECMWF
Exceedance threshold (mm)
0 0.1 1 2 5 10 15 20
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
False Alarm Rate
183 Nor. stations 00+18,+30,+42,+54,+66
Exceedance threshold (mm)
0 0.1 1 2 5 10 15 20
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
False Alarm Ratio
183 Nor. stations 00+18,+30,+42,+54,+66
Exceedance threshold (mm)
0 0.1 1 2 5 10 15 20
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Equitable Threat Score
183 Nor. stations 00+18,+30,+42,+54,+66
MEPSctrl ECMWF
Exceedance threshold (mm)
0 0.1 1 2 5 10 15 20
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Hansen−Kuiper Skill Score
183 Nor. stations 00+18,+30,+42,+54,+66
Exceedance threshold (mm)
0 0.1 1 2 5 10 15 20
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Heidke Skill Score
183 Nor. stations 00+18,+30,+42,+54,+66
65
Dec 2018 to Feb 2019 Daily precipitation
Dec15 Mar16 Jun16 Sep16 Dec16 Mar17 Jun17 Sep17 Dec17 Mar18 Jun18 Sep18 Dec18
−4
−2
0
2
4
00+30 UTC
ECMWF AM25 MEPSctrl
111 Norwegian stations
Dec15 Mar16 Jun16 Sep16 Dec16 Mar17 Jun17 Sep17 Dec17 Mar18 Jun18 Sep18 Dec18
−4
−2
0
2
4
12 coastal stations
Dec15 Mar16 Jun16 Sep16 Dec16 Mar17 Jun17 Sep17 Dec17 Mar18 Jun18 Sep18 Dec18
−4
−2
0
2
4
29 stations more than 500 m above sea level
Dec15 Mar16 Jun16 Sep16 Dec16 Mar17 Jun17 Sep17 Dec17 Mar18 Jun18 Sep18 Dec18
−4
−2
0
2
4
16 stations with daily mean precipitation > 4 mm
Mean Error
66
Dec 2018 to Feb 2019 Daily precipitation
Dec15 Mar16 Jun16 Sep16 Dec16 Mar17 Jun17 Sep17 Dec17 Mar18 Jun18 Sep18 Dec18
0
2
4
6
8
10
00+30 UTC
ECMWF AM25 MEPSctrl
111 Norwegian stations
Dec15 Mar16 Jun16 Sep16 Dec16 Mar17 Jun17 Sep17 Dec17 Mar18 Jun18 Sep18 Dec18
0
2
4
6
8
10
12 coastal stations
Dec15 Mar16 Jun16 Sep16 Dec16 Mar17 Jun17 Sep17 Dec17 Mar18 Jun18 Sep18 Dec18
0
2
4
6
8
10
29 stations more than 500 m above sea level
Dec15 Mar16 Jun16 Sep16 Dec16 Mar17 Jun17 Sep17 Dec17 Mar18 Jun18 Sep18 Dec18
0
2
4
6
8
10
16 stations with daily mean precipitation > 4 mm
Standard Deviation of Error
67
Dec 2018 to Feb 2019 Daily precipitation
Dec15 Mar16 Jun16 Sep16 Dec16 Mar17 Jun17 Sep17 Dec17 Mar18 Jun18 Sep18 Dec18
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
700+30 UTC
ECMWF AM25 MEPSctrl
111 Norwegian stations
Dec15 Mar16 Jun16 Sep16 Dec16 Mar17 Jun17 Sep17 Dec17 Mar18 Jun18 Sep18 Dec18
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
712 coastal stations
Dec15 Mar16 Jun16 Sep16 Dec16 Mar17 Jun17 Sep17 Dec17 Mar18 Jun18 Sep18 Dec18
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
729 stations more than 500 m above sea level
Dec15 Mar16 Jun16 Sep16 Dec16 Mar17 Jun17 Sep17 Dec17 Mar18 Jun18 Sep18 Dec18
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
716 stations with daily mean precipitation > 4 mm
Mean Absolute Error
68
Dec 2018 to Feb 2019 Daily precipitation
012
4
7
10
15
20
25
30
MEPSctrl 00+30ME at observing sites(numbers in black)
Model "climatology" 01.12.2018 − 28.02.2019
0.4
0.2
0.7
0.4
1.1
0.3
0.7
0.3
0.3
−0.4
0.6
0.8
0.4
0.3
0.4
0
0.3
0.9
0.30.1
0
0
−0.20.7
0.2
0.8−1.8
0.10.2−0.1
0.3
0.60.30.5
0.2
0.21.1
0.4
0.2
−0.70.4
0.5
0.7−1.30.9
−0.8
0.61.2
2.70.3
−0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2−1.30
0.51.5
0−0.5−0.3
−0.1
0.5
0.10.10.2
0.4
0.4
0
0.2
0.4
0.1
2.5
−0.72.52
−0.6
−0.5
−0.3
−0.4
−0.1
−1.7
0.5
0
0.6
0.1 0.1
0.4
−0.4
0.71.50.1
0.3
−0.5
−1.3
0.1
−0.6
3.52.1
0.1−0.5
0
−0.9
0
−0.2
0.7
0.5
−0.4−0.9
1.8−1.1 0.2
0.3
0.5
−3.8
−0.2−1.9
−1.7
−0.6−1−1.2
−0.2
0.3
0.8
1.9
1
−1−0.3
0.5
0.4
0.5
0.5
0
0.3
0.6
0.4
0.3
0.4
0.1
0
−0.1
0.3
0.4
0.3
0.8
0.6
0.5
0.2
0.2
0.6
0.4
0.3
−0.5
0
0.5
0.2
3
69
Dec 2018 to Feb 2019 Daily precipitation
012
4
7
10
15
20
25
30
MEPSctrl 00+30SDE at observing sites(numbers in black)
Model "climatology" 01.12.2018 − 28.02.2019
1.1
1.7
1.8
1.6
2.2
1.1
1.2
0.9
0.8
2.1
0.9
1.8
1.2
1.3
1.1
1.8
2
1.52.5
1.3
1.8
22
1.3
2.13.61.51.61.9
1
1.21.61.3
0.8
1.42
1.5
1.7
1.61
2.4
1.32.31.5
3.4
2.42.9
6.40.9
1.1
1.4
1
12.21
1.22.9
1.31.91.9
1.3
1.5
11.41.9
2.3
1.5
2.1
1.4
1.7
1.5
5.2
5.17.25.5
8.5
3.2
2.63.2
2.2
5.2
1.3
2.9
1.3
1.82.4
2.4
1.9
2.833.1
2.3
3.4
53.5
2.8
5.6
5.2
2.32.9 3.6
4.1
3.6
2.4
2.8
3.53.7
3.4
3.13.5 2.8
2.4
3.5
5.9
2.85.8
3.8
3.33.74
3.1
2.3
2.2
3.4
2.4
2.73.4
1.4
0.9
1.1
1.4
3.6
1.3
0.9
1.2
2.7
1.1
1.5
1.2
1.2
1
1
1
1.8
1.8
1.4
2.5
1.9
1.5
0.8
1
1.7
1.7
1.5
1.4
5.3
70
Dec 2018 to Feb 2019 Daily precipitation
012
4
7
10
15
20
25
30
MEPSctrl 00+30ME at observing sites(numbers in black)
Model "climatology" 01.12.2018 − 28.02.2019
0.3
0.9
0.1
0
0
−0.20.7
0.2
0.8−1.8
0.10.2−0.1
0.3
0.60.30.5
1.1
0.4
−0.7
0.4
0.5
0.7
−1.30.9
−0.8
0.6
1.2
2.70.3
−0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2−1.3
0
0.51.5
0−0.5
−0.3
−0.1
0.5
0.10.10.2
0.4
0.4
0
0.9
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.10.40.8
−10.8
0
0.8−1.80.9
0.3
−0.1
0.4
0.8
0.4−0.7
0
−0.5
0
0.2
0.4−0.2
0.5
−0.7
−0.9
−0.2
−0.5
0.20.2
−0.3
−1.3
2.2
3.4−0.1−0.3−0.4 1.7
−0.60.5
0.6
−1.1
0.9
0.2−0.3
−0.8
−1.4
1
−1.2
−0.4 0.60
−0.3
−2.1 2.5−1
−0.8−0.7
2.52
−0.6
−0.5
−0.3
−0.4
−0.1
−1.7
0.5
0
0.6
0.1 0.1
0.4
−0.4
1.50.1
0.2
71
Dec 2018 to Feb 2019 Daily precipitation
012
4
7
10
15
20
25
30
MEPSctrl 00+30SDE at observing sites(numbers in black)
Model "climatology" 01.12.2018 − 28.02.2019
1.5
3
2.5
1.3
1.8
22
1.3
2.13.61.51.6
1.9
1.21.61.3
2
1.5
1.6
1
2.4
1.3
2.31.5
3.4
2.42.9
6.40.9
1.1
1.4
1
12.2
1
1.22.9
1.31.91.9
1.3
1.5
11.41.9
2.3
1.5
2.12.4
1.4
1.6
1.7
1.52.12.4
3.43.2
2.6
2.88.62.5
1.8
2
2.6
2.9
2.72.8
2.4
3.32.6
3.1
3.63.13.2
3.4
2.9
3.33.4
3.73.9
3.6
3.9
2.6
4.43.13.82.5 2.6
3.34.5
3.9
5.8
3.9
42.6
3.3
5.1
2.2
3.9
4.8 3.62.6
4
5.7 5.27.5
4.15.17.25.5
8.5
3.2
2.6
3.2
2.2
5.2
1.3
2.9
1.3
1.8 2.4
2.4
1.9
2.833.1
1.5
72
Dec 2018 to Feb 2019 Daily precipitation
012
4
7
10
15
20
25
30
MEPSctrl 00+30ME at observing sites(numbers in black)
Model "climatology" 01.12.2018 − 28.02.2019
0.3
0.9
0.1
0
0
−0.2
0.70.2
0.8
−1.80.1
0.2
−0.1
0.3
0.60.30.5
0.2
0.2
1.1
0.4
0.2
−0.7
0.4
0.5
0.7
−1.30.9
−0.8
0.6
1.2
2.70.3
−0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2−1.3
0
0.51.5
0−0.5
−0.3
−0.1
0.5
0.10.10.2
0.4
0.4
0
0.9
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.10.40.8
−10.8
0
0.8−1.8
0.9
0.3
−0.1
0.4
0.8
−0.7
0
−0.5
−0.9
−0.3
−1.3
2.2
3.4−0.1−0.3
−0.41.7
−0.6
−0.3
−0.8
−1.4
1
0.6
0
−0.3
−2.1 2.5−1
−0.8−0.7
2.52
−0.6
−0.5
−0.3
−0.4
−0.1
0.5
0
0.6
0.1 0.1
0.4
0.71.50.1
1
0.2
0.3
0.8
73
Dec 2018 to Feb 2019 Daily precipitation
012
4
7
10
15
20
25
30
MEPSctrl 00+30SDE at observing sites(numbers in black)
Model "climatology" 01.12.2018 − 28.02.2019
1.5
3
2.5
1.3
1.8
22
1.3
2.1
3.61.5
1.61.9
1
1.21.61.3
0.8
1.4
2
1.5
1.7
1.6
1
2.4
1.3
2.31.5
3.4
2.4
2.9
6.40.9
1.1
1.4
1
12.2
1
1.22.9
1.31.9
1.9
1.3
1.5
11.41.9
2.3
1.5
2.1
2.4
1.4
1.6
1.7
1.52.12.4
3.4 3.2
2.6
2.88.62.5
1.8
2
2.6
2.9
2.8
2.4
3.3
2.9
3.6
3.9
2.6
4.43.13.82.5
2.6
3.3
2.6
3.3
5.1
2.2
3.62.6
4
5.7 5.27.5
4.15.17.25.5
8.5
3.2
2.6
3.2
2.2
1.3
2.9
1.3
1.8 2.4
2.4
2.833.1
1.9
1.5
1
1.8
74
Dec 2018 to Feb 2019 12 hour precipitation
Dec 05 Dec 10 Dec 15 Dec 20 Dec 25 Dec 30
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
idate
01.12.2018 − 31.12.2018
mm
Jan 04 Jan 09 Jan 14 Jan 19 Jan 24 Jan 29
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
idate
01.01.2019 − 31.01.2019
mm
Feb 03 Feb 08 Feb 13 Feb 18 Feb 23 Feb 28
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
idate
01.02.2019 − 28.02.2019
mm
Min Mean Max Std N
AA25: 12+18,+30 0 0.7 11.6 1.7 180
ECMWF: 12+18,+30 0 0.8 10.9 1.5 180
01.12.2018 − 28.02.2019
SVALBARD LUFTHAVN
75
Dec 2018 to Feb 2019 12 hour precipitation
Dec 05 Dec 10 Dec 15 Dec 20 Dec 25 Dec 30
0
5
10
15
idate
01.12.2018 − 31.12.2018
mm
Jan 04 Jan 09 Jan 14 Jan 19 Jan 24 Jan 29
0
5
10
15
idate
01.01.2019 − 31.01.2019
mm
Feb 03 Feb 08 Feb 13 Feb 18 Feb 23 Feb 28
0
5
10
15
idate
01.02.2019 − 28.02.2019
mm
Min Mean Max Std N
synop: 06,18 0 0.7 16.6 1.9 180
AA25: 12+18,+30 0 1 16.5 2 180
ECMWF: 12+18,+30 0 1 14.8 1.7 180
ME SDE RMSE MAE Max.abs.err. N
AA25 − synop 0.3 1.9 2 0.8 15.3 180
ECMWF − synop 0.3 1 1 0.6 6.5 180
01.12.2018 − 28.02.2019
BJØRNØYA
76
Dec 2018 to Feb 2019 12 hour precipitation
Dec 05 Dec 10 Dec 15 Dec 20 Dec 25 Dec 30
0
5
10
15
idate
01.12.2018 − 31.12.2018
mm
Jan 04 Jan 09 Jan 14 Jan 19 Jan 24 Jan 29
0
5
10
15
idate
01.01.2019 − 31.01.2019
mm
Feb 03 Feb 08 Feb 13 Feb 18 Feb 23 Feb 28
0
5
10
15
idate
01.02.2019 − 28.02.2019
mm
Min Mean Max Std N
synop: 06,18 0 2.1 14.4 3 180
MEPSctrl: 12+18,+30 0 1.7 16.2 2.9 180
AA25: 12+18,+30 0 1.8 18 3 180
ECMWF: 12+18,+30 0 2.1 18 3.4 180
ME SDE RMSE MAE Max.abs.err. N
MEPSctrl − synop −0.4 2.4 2.4 1.4 9.5 180
AA25 − synop −0.3 2.4 2.4 1.4 13.2 180
ECMWF − synop 0 2.3 2.3 1.2 9.2 180
01.12.2018 − 28.02.2019
TROMSØ
77
Dec 2018 to Feb 2019 12 hour precipitation
Dec 05 Dec 10 Dec 15 Dec 20 Dec 25 Dec 30
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
idate
01.12.2018 − 31.12.2018
mm
Jan 04 Jan 09 Jan 14 Jan 19 Jan 24 Jan 29
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
idate
01.01.2019 − 31.01.2019
mm
Feb 03 Feb 08 Feb 13 Feb 18 Feb 23 Feb 28
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
idate
01.02.2019 − 28.02.2019
mm
Min Mean Max Std N
synop: 06,18 0 2 33.5 4.1 180
MEPSctrl: 12+18,+30 0 1.5 19.5 2.6 180
AA25: 12+18,+30 0 1.7 19.9 2.9 180
ECMWF: 12+18,+30 0 2.8 18 3.7 180
ME SDE RMSE MAE Max.abs.err. N
MEPSctrl − synop −0.5 2.3 2.4 1.1 14 180
AA25 − synop −0.4 2.5 2.5 1.2 13.9 180
ECMWF − synop 0.8 2.7 2.9 1.6 15.5 180
01.12.2018 − 28.02.2019
BODØ VI
78
Dec 2018 to Feb 2019 12 hour precipitation
Dec 05 Dec 10 Dec 15 Dec 20 Dec 25 Dec 30
0
5
10
15
20
idate
01.12.2018 − 31.12.2018
mm
Jan 04 Jan 09 Jan 14 Jan 19 Jan 24 Jan 29
0
5
10
15
20
idate
01.01.2019 − 31.01.2019
mm
Feb 03 Feb 08 Feb 13 Feb 18 Feb 23 Feb 28
0
5
10
15
20
idate
01.02.2019 − 28.02.2019
mm
Min Mean Max Std N
synop: 06,18 0 1.6 13.6 2.5 180
MEPSctrl: 12+18,+30 0 1.7 15.3 2.7 180
ECMWF: 12+18,+30 0 2.7 21.8 3.6 180
ME SDE RMSE MAE Max.abs.err. N
MEPSctrl − synop 0.1 1.7 1.8 1 8.2 180
ECMWF − synop 1.1 2.3 2.5 1.4 10.4 180
01.12.2018 − 28.02.2019
ØRLAND III
79
Dec 2018 to Feb 2019 12 hour precipitation
Dec 05 Dec 10 Dec 15 Dec 20 Dec 25 Dec 30
0
5
10
15
20
25
idate
01.12.2018 − 31.12.2018
mm
Jan 04 Jan 09 Jan 14 Jan 19 Jan 24 Jan 29
0
5
10
15
20
25
idate
01.01.2019 − 31.01.2019
mm
Feb 03 Feb 08 Feb 13 Feb 18 Feb 23 Feb 28
0
5
10
15
20
25
idate
01.02.2019 − 28.02.2019
mm
Min Mean Max Std N
synop: 06,18 0 2.4 26.7 4 180
MEPSctrl: 12+18,+30 0 2.3 22.7 4 180
ECMWF: 12+18,+30 0 2.5 19.3 3.7 180
ME SDE RMSE MAE Max.abs.err. N
MEPSctrl − synop −0.1 2.4 2.4 1.3 12.6 180
ECMWF − synop 0 2.2 2.2 1.2 11.2 180
01.12.2018 − 28.02.2019
BERGEN − FLORIDA
80
Dec 2018 to Feb 2019 12 hour precipitation
Dec 05 Dec 10 Dec 15 Dec 20 Dec 25 Dec 30
0
5
10
15
idate
01.12.2018 − 31.12.2018
mm
Jan 04 Jan 09 Jan 14 Jan 19 Jan 24 Jan 29
0
5
10
15
idate
01.01.2019 − 31.01.2019
mm
Feb 03 Feb 08 Feb 13 Feb 18 Feb 23 Feb 28
0
5
10
15
idate
01.02.2019 − 28.02.2019
mm
Min Mean Max Std N
synop: 06,18 0 0.6 11.4 1.5 180
MEPSctrl: 12+18,+30 0 1 17.5 2.2 180
ECMWF: 12+18,+30 0 1.7 16.9 2.6 180
ME SDE RMSE MAE Max.abs.err. N
MEPSctrl − synop 0.4 1.7 1.7 0.7 16.2 180
ECMWF − synop 1.1 1.9 2.2 1.3 13.4 180
01.12.2018 − 28.02.2019
LÆRDAL IV
81
Dec 2018 to Feb 2019 12 hour precipitation
Dec 05 Dec 10 Dec 15 Dec 20 Dec 25 Dec 30
0
5
10
15
idate
01.12.2018 − 31.12.2018
mm
Jan 04 Jan 09 Jan 14 Jan 19 Jan 24 Jan 29
0
5
10
15
idate
01.01.2019 − 31.01.2019
mm
Feb 03 Feb 08 Feb 13 Feb 18 Feb 23 Feb 28
0
5
10
15
idate
01.02.2019 − 28.02.2019
mm
Min Mean Max Std N
synop: 06,18 0 0.8 11 2 180
MEPSctrl: 12+18,+30 0 1.2 15.1 2.5 180
ECMWF: 12+18,+30 0 1.2 12.7 2.5 180
ME SDE RMSE MAE Max.abs.err. N
MEPSctrl − synop 0.4 1.4 1.5 0.7 7.5 180
ECMWF − synop 0.5 1.4 1.4 0.7 6.7 180
01.12.2018 − 28.02.2019
GARDERMOEN
82
Dec 2018 to Feb 2019 12 hour precipitation
Dec 05 Dec 10 Dec 15 Dec 20 Dec 25 Dec 30
0
10
20
30
40
50
idate
01.12.2018 − 31.12.2018
mm
Jan 04 Jan 09 Jan 14 Jan 19 Jan 24 Jan 29
0
10
20
30
40
50
idate
01.01.2019 − 31.01.2019
mm
Feb 03 Feb 08 Feb 13 Feb 18 Feb 23 Feb 28
0
10
20
30
40
50
idate
01.02.2019 − 28.02.2019
mm
Min Mean Max Std N
synop: 06,18 0 2.7 55 7.6 180
MEPSctrl: 12+18,+30 0 1.8 30.5 4 180
ECMWF: 12+18,+30 0 2 29.5 4.2 180
ME SDE RMSE MAE Max.abs.err. N
MEPSctrl − synop −0.9 5.7 5.7 1.4 51.2 180
ECMWF − synop −0.7 5.6 5.6 1.4 48.6 180
01.12.2018 − 28.02.2019
NELAUG
83