Post on 29-Aug-2020
851 S.W. Sixth Avenue, Suite 1100 Steve Crow 503-222-5161 Portland, Oregon 97204-1348 Executive Director 800-452-5161 www.nwcouncil.org Fax: 503-820-2370
Jennifer Anders Chair
Montana
Richard Devlin Vice Chair
Oregon
Tim Baker Montana
Guy Norman Washington
Tom Karier Washington
Ted Ferrioli
Oregon
Jim Yost Idaho
Jeffery C. Allen
Idaho
March 5, 2019
MEMORANDUM TO: Council members FROM: Lynn Palensky SUBJECT: Briefing on Columbia River Basin salmon and steelhead returns for
2018 and run forecasts for 2019 BACKGROUND: Presenters: Dan Rawding (WDFW), Art Martin (ODFW), Lance Hebdon (IDFG), and
Brian Burke (NOAA NW Fisheries Science Center) Summary: The Council will be briefed on the 2018 returns and 2019 run forecasts of
adult salmon and steelhead
Dan Rawding (Columbia River Policy and Science Coordinator, Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife) and Art Martin (Columbia River Coordination Section Manager), will present the latest information on adult Chinook, coho, sockeye, and chum salmon and steelhead run forecasts for the Columbia and Snake rivers, and expectations for the 2019 fisheries. The presentation will also include a retrospective review of the 2018 adult salmon and steelhead returns and fisheries in the Columbia River excluding the Snake Basin. Lance Hebdon (Anadromous Fishery Manager, Idaho Department of Fish and Game) will summarize the recent and historical returns of salmon and steelhead to the Snake River Basin, focusing on the species/run groupings of spring, summer and fall Chinook salmon; summer steelhead; and sockeye salmon. Numbers of fish passing Lower Granite Dam comprise the aggregate count of adult salmon and steelhead destined for eastern Oregon’s Grande Ronde and Imnaha river drainages and Idaho’s Clearwater and Salmon River drainages.
Brian Burke (Research Fishery Biologist at NOAA’s NW Fisheries Science
Center), will present the outlook for Chinook and coho returns to the Columbia River based on local and regional ocean conditions.
Relevance: This information is relevant to our high-level indicators. It gives the region
a preview for what is expected for adult returns in the current year. Workplan: This task is captured in the Division’s work plan under Adaptive
Management - Annual Reports. More Info: Links: Columbia River Forecasts: http://wdfw.wa.gov/fishing/reports_plants.html 2018 Forecast Report to Council Joint State Staff Reports http://wdfw.wa.gov/fishing/crc/ Columbia River DART: http://www.cbr.washington.edu/dart
COLUMBIA RIVER SALMON AND STEELHEAD RETURNS
NPCC – March 2019Presented by: Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife
U.S. v Oregon Technical Advisory Committee
Consists of staff from federal, tribal and state entities.
TAC ‘reconstructs’ Columbia River salmon and steelhead returns post season and develops preseason forecasts.
TAC reviews salmon and steelhead stock status as the runs progress and provides inseason run size updates.
In 2018, TAC met 28 times between April and October to provide inseason run size updates on upriver salmon and steelhead.
These inseason updates allow fishery managers to adjust fisheries as necessary in order to remain within ESA limits and management guidelines.
2
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
500,000
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Upriver Spring Chinook
2019 Forecast: 99,300
3
2018 Forecast: 166,7002018 Actual: 115,000
Tota
l # o
f fis
h re
turn
ing
to th
e m
outh
of
the
Col
umbi
a Ri
ver
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016
totalwild
Upper Columbia Spring Chinook
2019 Forecast:11,200 tot. / 2,100 wild
4
2018 Forecast: 20,100 tot. / 3,400 wild2018 Return: 12,844 tot. / 1,977 wild
Tota
l # o
f fis
h re
turn
ing
to th
e m
outh
of
the
Col
umbi
a Ri
ver
5
Willamette Spring Chinook
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016
2019 Forecast: 126,950
6
2018 Forecast: 190,3502018 Return: 100,483
Tota
l # o
f fis
h re
turn
ing
to B
onne
ville
Dam
Upriver Summer Steelhead
Smolt Survival from LWG to BON7
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
2001 2006 2011 2016
Wild Winter Steelhead8
2018 Forecast: 11,7002018 Return: 11,323 2019 Forecast: 14,400
Tota
l # o
f fis
h re
turn
ing
to th
e m
outh
of
the
Col
umbi
a Ri
ver
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Columbia River Sockeye
2019 Forecast: 94,400
9
2018 Forecast: 99,0002018 Return: 210,915
Tota
l # o
f fis
h re
turn
ing
to th
e m
outh
of
the
Col
umbi
a Ri
ver
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016
Upper Columbia Summer Chinook
2018 Forecast: 67,300 2018 Return: 42,120
10
Tota
l # o
f fis
h re
turn
ing
to th
e m
outh
of
the
Col
umbi
a Ri
ver
2019 Forecast: 35,900
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016
CHF TotalUpriver
Total Fall Chinook2019 Forecast: 340,400 / 261,100 upriver
11
2018 Forecast: 375,700 / 286,200 upriver2018 Return: 291,100 / 214,000 upriver
Tota
l # o
f fis
h re
turn
ing
to th
e m
outh
of
the
Col
umbi
a Ri
ver
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
1,800,000
1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016
Total At BON
Columbia River Coho12
2018 Forecast: 286,2002018 Return: 147,300 2019 Forecast: 726,000
# o
f Fi
sh R
etur
ning
to C
ol. R
iver
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016
Columbia River Chum13
Peak counts Population estimates
# o
f Fi
sh R
etur
ning
to C
ol. R
iver
2019Forecast10,000 (prelim)
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016
Chinook Coho Sockeye Steelhead
TOTAL Return of Salmonids to the Columbia River
14
2018 Return: ~ 665,000 fish 2019 Forecast: ~1.3 million
# o
f Fi
sh R
etur
ning
to C
ol. R
iver
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
1980 1986 1992 1998 2004 2010 2016
Chinook Coho Sockeye Steelhead
UPRIVER Salmonids Returning to the Columbia River
15
2018 Return: 619,400 fish 2019 Forecast: 968,000 fish
# o
f Fi
sh R
etur
ning
to C
ol. R
iver
2018 Fisheries Conservation
Summer Steelhead return was lowest since 1979 (2017 was 2nd lowest) Decline driven by A-index
Co-managers worked together to reduce recreational impact to steelhead
Columbia (OR & WA) and Snake (WA) Summer – rolling closures due to Chinook run-size downgrade Fall – rolling closures due to Chinook and steelhead run-size
downgrades
16
2018 Non-Indian Sport Fisheries
Spring Chinook Below Bonneville:
90,000 angler trips 7500 hatchery fish kept
Bonneville to WA/OR border: 600 hatchery fish kept
Snake River (WA waters): 740 hatchery fish kept
Summer Season Below Bonneville:
27,500 angler trips 1000 hatchery Chinook 2,400 hatchery steelhead (May-June) 400 sockeye
Bonneville - Priest Rapids: 430 hatchery Chinook 100 sockeye
Priest Rapids – Chief Joseph: 3,000 hatchery Chinook 16,100 sockeye
Fall Season Buoy 10:
67,300 angler trips 11,600 Chinook kept 6,800 hatchery coho kept
Below Bonneville: 69,600 angler trips 9,800 Chinook kept 650 hatchery coho kept 1,100 hatchery steelhead
kept Hanford Reach:
20,100 angler trips 6,700 Chinook kept
17
2018 Non-Indian Commercial Fisheries
MAINSTEM FISHERIES Spring Season –
Closed Summer Season –
Closed Fall Season – 8,300 Chinook 380 Coho
SELECT AREA FISHERIES (SAFE)
Spring Season 8,700 Chinook
Summer Season 2,200 Chinook
Fall Season 15,000 Fall Chinook 12,500 Coho
18
2018 Treaty Indian Fisheries 19
Landed fish include those kept for ceremonial &subsistence (C&S) purposes, or sold commercially.
Spring Chinook – 10,900 fish
Summer Chinook – 9,300 fish
Sockeye – 5,400 fish
Summer Steelhead – 1,200 in spring/summer 5,000 in fall 6,200 TOTAL
Fall Chinook – 49,800
Coho – 3,600
Questions?20
SNAKE RIVER SALMON AND STEELHEAD RETURNS
NPCC – March 2019Presented by: Idaho Department of Fish and Game
1
Spring/Summer Chinook Summer Steelhead SockeyeFall Chinook
Natural-origin and Hatchery-origin
SNAKE RIVER SALMON AND STEELHEAD RETURNS
Lower Granite Dam
2
NATURAL-ORIGIN SPRING/SUMMER CHINOOK
3
MAT- 31,750
HATCHERY-ORIGIN SPRING/SUMMER CHINOOK
4
COMBINED NATURAL- AND HATCHERY-ORIGIN SPRING/SUMMER CHINOOK
5
Snake River 2019 Spring/Summer Chinook Forecast
NATURAL-ORIGIN FALL CHINOOK
6
MAT – 4,500
HATCHERY-ORIGIN FALL CHINOOK
7
COMBINED NATURAL- AND HATCHERY-ORIGIN FALL CHINOOK
8
Snake River 2019 Fall Chinook Forecast
NATURAL-ORIGIN SUMMER STEELHEAD
9
MAT- 21,767
NATURAL-ORIGIN SUMMER STEELHEAD
10
2019-20 Wild A run: 16,9502019-20 Wild B run: 665
2019-20 Forecast: 17,615
HATCHERY-ORIGIN SUMMER STEELHEAD
11
HATCHERY-ORIGIN SUMMER STEELHEAD
12
COMBINED NATURAL- AND HATCHERY-ORIGIN SUMMER STEELHEAD
13
Snake River 2019-2020 Summer Steelhead Forecast
NATURAL-ORIGIN SOCKEYE
14
HATCHERY-ORIGIN SOCKEYE
15
COMBINED NATURAL- AND HATCHERY-ORIGIN SOCKEYE
16
Snake River Sockeye 2019 Forecasts
Recent Ocean Observations and Outlooks for Salmon Returns
Presenter: Brian BurkeNOAA Fisheries, NWFSC
Northwest Power and Conservation CouncilMarch 12th, 2019
Supported by:
1. Newport Hydrographic Line• Sampled biweekly for >20 years (1996 – present)2. Juvenile Salmon and Ocean Ecosystem Survey (JSOES)• May and June surveys, starting in 19983. Pre-recruit survey• Night trawls at 30 m depth, 2011, 2013-2018
September 2015
Pacific Basin-Scale DynamicsSeptember 2014
September 2017 February 2019
Systemic Biological Response to the Blob
Pacific Pompano
Year
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Log
(CPU
E +
1)
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
Jack Mackerel
Year
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Log
(CPU
E +
1)
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
Pacific Chub Mackerel
Year
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Log
(CPU
E +
1)
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35California Market Squid
Year98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Log
(CPU
E +
1)
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Water Jelly
Year
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Log
(CPU
E +
1)
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
Sea Nettle
Year
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Log
(CPU
E +
1)
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
From Morgan et al., In Press
Systemic Biological Response to the Blob
Improved Salmon Catch in 2018
June
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Ave
rage
Cat
ch p
er K
ilom
eter
Tow
ed
0
2
4
6
8
10 Coho yearlingChinook subyearlingChinook yearlingChinook mixed age juvenile
Suggests low returns of:• Coho in 2018• Chinook in 2019
Suggests high returns of coho in 2019And average returns of Chinook in 2020
Surv
ival
(Bon
n to
Bon
n)
https://www.nwfsc.noaa.gov/oceanconditions
Early Warning:Stoplight Chart
Chinook at Bonneville DamDynamic Linear Models
Sibling Regression and the first Principal Component of the stoplight chart
Outlook for 2019: 88K (53 - 148)
Spring ChinookMarch 15 – May 31
Return data from Columbia Basin Research, DART
Outlook for 2020: 138K (67 – 287)
(no jack information)
Chinook at Bonneville DamDynamic Linear Models
Sibling Regression and the first Principal Component of the stoplight chart
Outlook for 2019: 305K (181 - 516)
Fall ChinookAug 1 – Nov 15
Return data from Columbia Basin Research, DART
Outlook for 2020: 385K (186 – 798)
(no jack information)
Coho at Bonneville DamDynamic Linear Models
First Principal Component of the stoplight chart
Outlook for 2018: 2.2% (0.9 – 5.0)
CohoOPIH
Return data from Columbia Basin Research, DART
Caveat: spatial distribution is stock-specific
Snake River Fall Subyearling Chinook
Teel, et al. 2015. Marine and Coastal Fisheries 7:274-300.
Conclusions• Physical environment is
somewhat neutral
• Some aspects of the ocean ecosystem appear to be back to ‘normal’, others are still changing (‘still changing’ might be the new normal)
• Expected returns in 2019: • Spring Chinook: Similar to last two years• Fall Chinook: Slightly higher than last year• Coho: Better than last several years