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2015-10-13 1

Robert Waller

Protect Heritage Corp.

2015 September

MANAGING RISKS

to

CULTURAL PROPERTY

International Institutefor Conservation of

Historic and Artistic Works

This presentation

Is:

• Methods, levels, and

strategies for control of

risks

• Creativity and flexibility

• Right information to right

managers

Is not:

• Specific strategies

• Single grand plan

Methods for control

Avoid

Block

Detect

Respond / Recover

Levels for control

Location

Site

Building

Room

Storage unit

Object

Policy / procedure

The Forest

0.000001

0.0001

0.01

1

Ris

k /

Ce

ntu

ry

Cultural Property Risk Analysis Model

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

4 12 1 8 2 10 18 9 13 11 19 6 3 7 15 16 5 17 14Collection Unit

Fra

ction L

ost / C

entu

ry

Risk profile by collection units

Cultural Property Risk Analysis Model

0.000001

0.0001

0.01

1

The ForestR

isk /

Ce

ntu

ry

Cultural Property Risk Analysis Model

Risk profile by generic risk

Cultural Property Risk Analysis Model

Vilfredo Pareto

1848 - 1923

Pareto distribution

0

0.5

1

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Ma

gn

itu

de

of

risk

Each risk

0

0.5

1

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Each risk

Ma

gn

itu

de

of risk .

Pareto distribution with total

0

0 .5

1

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0

E a c h r is k

Ma

gn

itu

de

o

f ris

k .

9 0 6 0 3 0

Pareto distribution

manage risks 1, 2, 3

0

0 .5

1

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0

E a c h r is k

Ma

gn

itu

de

o

f ris

k .

9 0 6 0 3 0

Pareto distribution

manage risks 7, 12, 17

0

0 .5

1

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0

E a c h r is k

Ma

gn

itu

de

o

f ris

k .

9 06 0 3 0

Pareto distribution

manage risks 13, 8, 15

0

0 .5

1

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0

E a c h r is k

Ma

gn

itu

de

o

f ris

k .

9 0 6 0 3 0

Pareto distribution

manage risks 18, 19, 20

0

0 .5

1

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0

E a c h r is k

Ma

gn

itu

de

o

f ris

k .

9 0

6 0

3 0

Pareto distribution

manage risks 8, 2, 17

0

0 .5

1

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0

E a c h r is k

Ma

gn

itu

de

o

f ris

k .

9 06 03 0

Pareto distribution

manage risks 16, 14, 8

0

0 .5

1

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0

E a c h r is k

Ma

gn

itu

de

o

f ris

k .

9 06 03 0

Pareto distribution

manage risks 19, 6, 3

0

0 .5

1

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0

E a c h r is k

Ma

gn

itu

de

o

f ris

k .

9 0 6 0 3 0

Pareto distribution

manage risks 1, 2, 3

Cultural Property Risk Analysis Model

Define context and scope

Identify risks

Determine expected losses

Evaluate risks

Cultural Property Risk Analysis Model

Management

more or less skilled handling of something

[risks]

“more or less skilled”

Skill joint evaluation of:

assessed risks,

and ability to mitigate

Cultural Property Risk Analysis Model

Risks must be evaluated from

a management capabilities perspective

Consider the perspective of: Preservation management (conservation)

Collection management

Finance and governance

Facilities management

Cultural Property Risk Analysis Model

Risks must be evaluated from

a management capabilities perspective

Consider the perspective of: Preservation management (conservation)

– Collection management

– Finance and governance

– Facilities management

Cultural Property Risk Analysis Model

0.000001

0.0001

0.01

1

Ris

k /

Ce

ntu

ry

Cultural Property Risk Analysis Model

1998 Risk profile by generic risk

Cultural Property Risk Analysis Model

2003 Risk profile by generic risk

Cultural Property Risk Analysis Model

1998 Total Risk to CMN Collection

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

RH

2 &

Co

nc

Co

nt -

3

CN

- 3

RH

- 3

PF

-3

LU

V

PF

-2

CN

- 2

Cri

min

als

- 2

Pe

sts

Fir

e

Wa

ter

- 2

Cri

min

als

- 3

Cri

min

als

- 1

Te

mp

- 2

PF

-1

Co

nt -

1

Wa

ter

- 3

Co

nt -

2

Wa

ter

- 1

Te

mp

- 3

CN

- 1

Generic Risk

Ob

jects

lo

st p

er

ye

ar

.

1998 Risk profile by generic risk

Cultural Property Risk Analysis Model

2003 Total Risk to CMN Collection

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

RH

2 &

Conc

PF

-2

CN

- 3

LU

V

Crim

inals

- 2

Cont -

3

RH

- 3

PF

-3

CN

- 2

Fire

Pests

Crim

inals

- 3

Wate

r -

2

Tem

p -

2

Crim

inals

- 1

PF

-1

Cont -

2

Cont -

1

Wate

r -

3

Wate

r -

1

Tem

p -

3

CN

- 1

Generic Risk

Obje

cts

lost

per

year

.

2003 Risk profile by generic risk

Cultural Property Risk Analysis Model

Risks must be evaluated from

a management capabilities perspective

Consider the perspective of:– Preservation management (conservation)

Collection management

– Finance and governance

– Facilities management

Cultural Property Risk Analysis Model

0.000001

0.0001

0.01

1

Ris

k /

Ce

ntu

ry

Cultural Property Risk Analysis Model

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

4 12 1 8 2 10 18 9 13 11 19 6 3 7 15 16 5 17 14

Fra

ction lost /C

entu

ry

Collection Unit

Magnitude of Risk - Objects Assumed Equal Value

0

100

200

300

1 2 4 13 8 10 12 18 5 15 3 11 9 14 16 6 7 17 19

Collection Unit

Nu

mb

er

of

Ob

jects

Lo

st

/ Y

ea

r

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

Fra

ctio

n o

f Un

it Lo

st /C

en

tury

.

Magnitude of Risk - Sections Assumed Equal Value

0

50

100

150

200

5 2 1 13 10 8 12 11 18 15 4 3 14 9 16 7 6 17 19

Collection Unit

Nu

mb

er

of

Ob

jects

Lo

st

/ Y

ea

r

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

Un

it Lo

ss O

ve

r Ne

xt C

en

tury

.

x 1,000,000

300 x

Alternative value distributions

Cultural Property Risk Analysis Model

Risks must be evaluated from

a management capabilities perspective

Consider the perspective of:– Preservation management (conservation)

– Collection management

Finance and governance

– Facilities management

Cultural Property Risk Analysis Model

0.000001

0.0001

0.01

1

Ris

k /

Ce

ntu

ry

Cultural Property Risk Analysis Model

0.0001

0.001

0.01

0.1

1

Type 1 Type 2 Type 3

Type of risk

Ris

k .

1993 1998 2003

Cultural Property Risk Analysis Model

Risks must be evaluated from

a management capabilities perspective

Consider the perspective of:

– Preservation management (conservation)

– Collection management

– Finance and governance

Facilities management

Cultural Property Risk Analysis Model

0.000001

0.0001

0.01

1

Ris

k /

Ce

ntu

ry

Cultural Property Risk Analysis Model

1998 Facilities management share of risks

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

LU

V

PF

-2

Fire

RH

- 3

Pests

Crim

inals

- 2

Wate

r -

2

Cont -

3

PF

-3

Tem

p -

2

Crim

inals

- 3

RH

2 &

Conc

PF

-1

Crim

inals

- 1

Cont -

1

Wate

r -

3

Wate

r -

1

Cont -

2

Tem

p -

3

CN

- 1

CN

- 2

CN

- 3

Generic risk

Ob

jects

lo

st p

er

ye

ar

..

1998 Facilities share of risks

Cultural Property Risk Analysis Model

2003 Facilities management share of risks

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

LU

V

PF

-2

Fire

RH

- 3

Pests

Crim

inals

- 2

Wate

r -

2

Cont -

3

PF

-3

Tem

p -

2

Crim

inals

- 3

RH

2 &

Conc

PF

-1

Crim

inals

- 1

Cont -

1

Wate

r -

3

Wate

r -

1

Cont -

2

Tem

p -

3

CN

- 1

CN

- 2

CN

- 3

Generic risk

Ob

jects

lo

st p

er

ye

ar

.

2003 Facilities share of risks

Cultural Property Risk Analysis Model

2008 Projected Facilities share of risks

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

LU

V

PF

-2

Fire

RH

- 3

Pests

Crim

inals

- 2

Wate

r -

2

Cont -

3

PF

-3

Tem

p -

2

Crim

inals

- 3

RH

2 &

Conc

PF

-1

Crim

inals

- 1

Cont -

1

Wate

r -

3

Wate

r -

1

Cont -

2

Tem

p -

3

CN

- 1

CN

- 2

CN

- 3

Generic risk

Ob

jects

lo

st p

er

ye

ar

.

2008 Facilities share of risks

Cultural Property Risk Analysis Model

Conclusion

CPRAM enables skillful management of

preservation.

It is not easy but ….

rw@protectheritage.com