Managing Ozone Pollution in Wisconsin

Angela Dickens, Ph.D. Policy Analyst Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources

http://blogs.agu.org/wildwildscience/2012/06/06/chicagos-air-conditioner-lake-michigan/ AQAST 8 – December 2-3, 2014

Draft Ozone Design Values – 2012-2014

Data have not been QA’ed and are subject to change 2

Draft Ozone Design Values – 2012-2014

Data have not been QA’ed and are subject to change 3

Nonattainment for 1997 & 2008 standards

Nonattainment for 2008 standard

4

Lakeshore Ozone in Wisconsin

5

Lakeshore Ozone in Wisconsin

Chicago

6

Lakeshore Ozone in Wisconsin

Chicago

Milwaukee

7

Lakeshore Ozone in Wisconsin

Chicago

Milwaukee

8

Lakeshore Ozone in Wisconsin

Chicago

Milwaukee

9

Lakeshore Ozone in Wisconsin

Chicago

Milwaukee

NOx + VOC O3

10

Lakeshore Ozone in Wisconsin

Chicago

Milwaukee

NOx + VOC O3

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Lakeshore Ozone in Wisconsin

Chicago

Milwaukee

NOx + VOC O3

12

Sheboygan (2018 projections, days > 70 ppb)

Ozone Sources to WI Lakeshore

OSAT results from LADCO (Alex Cohan)

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Sheboygan (2018 projections, days > 70 ppb)

Ozone Sources to WI Lakeshore

OSAT results from LADCO (Alex Cohan)

WI contributes 14%

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Sheboygan (2018 projections, days > 70 ppb)

Ozone Sources to WI Lakeshore

OSAT results from LADCO (Alex Cohan)

WI contributes 14% Marine vessels:

7-8%???

15

Sheboygan (2018 projections, days > 70 ppb)

Ozone Sources to WI Lakeshore

OSAT results from LADCO (Alex Cohan)

30% from boundary conditions Marine vessels: 7-8%???

WI contributes 14%

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>75 ppb

Ozone Sources to WI Lakeshore

HYSPLIT Analysis for 2011-2013

Colors = point density More Less Dense Dense

High

ozo

ne d

ays

17

>75 ppb

Ozone Sources to WI Lakeshore

HYSPLIT Analysis for 2011-2013

• Influence of Chicago/Lake Michigan • Also Ohio River Valley • The Lake isn’t always involved

Colors = point density More Less Dense Dense

High

ozo

ne d

ays

18

>75 ppb

Ozone Sources to WI Lakeshore & Inland

HYSPLIT Analysis for 2011-2013

> 70 ppb

Colors = point density More Less Dense Dense

High

ozo

ne d

ays

19

>75 ppb

Ozone Sources to WI Lakeshore & Inland

HYSPLIT Analysis for 2011-2013 • Less Chicago/Lake

Michigan influence Colors = point density More Less Dense Dense

High

ozo

ne d

ays > 70 ppb

20

>75 ppb

Ozone Sources to WI Lakeshore & Inland > 70 ppb

60-75 ppb 60-70 ppb

High

ozo

ne d

ays

Mod

erat

e oz

one

days

21

>75 ppb

Ozone Sources to WI Lakeshore & Inland > 70 ppb

60-75 ppb 60-70 ppb

Lower concentrations: Broader area implicated

High

ozo

ne d

ays

Mod

erat

e oz

one

days

22

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

'00-'02 '01-'03 '02-'04 '03-'05 '04-'06 '05-'07 '06-'08 '07-'09 '08-'10 '09-'11 '10-'12 '11-'13 '12-'14

Ozo

ne D

esig

n Va

lues

(ppb

)

Years

Lakeshore Counties2nd Tier CountiesCentral/Western CountiesFar Northern Counties

Trends in Ozone Design Values in WI

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LADCO Model Projections for 2018

From Alex Cohan @ LADCO

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LADCO Model Projections for 2018

Sheboygan is still nonattainment with 2008 standard

From Alex Cohan @ LADCO

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And a new standard is coming!

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And a new standard is coming!

DRAFT - 2014 data have not been QA’ed

Based on DRAFT 2012-2014 DVs

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And a new standard is coming!

Based on DRAFT 2012-2014 DVs

How do we manage this?

DRAFT - 2014 data have not been QA’ed

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Projects that would really help us (Developed with input from WDNR and LADCO)

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Projects that would really help us (Developed with input from WDNR and LADCO)

• Improved observations of VOC, NOx and meteororology • Including away from the lakeshore • Would help modelling and inventories

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Projects that would really help us (Developed with input from WDNR and LADCO)

• Improved observations of VOC, NOx and meteororology • Including away from the lakeshore • Would help modelling and inventories

• Verification of marine emissions on Lake Michigan • Use satellite data to track NOx plumes over the lake

• Sufficient resolution?

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Projects that would really help us (Developed with input from WDNR and LADCO)

• Improved observations of VOC, NOx and meteororology • Including away from the lakeshore • Would help modelling and inventories

• Verification of marine emissions on Lake Michigan • Use satellite data to track NOx plumes over the lake

• Sufficient resolution?

• Better constraints on lake breeze ozone impacts (and other ozone modeling issues) • LADCO will start this project – model sensitivity runs • Will likely produce areas for further study (field & satellite analyses)

32

Projects that would really help us (Developed with input from WDNR and LADCO)

• Improved observations of VOC, NOx and meteororology • Including away from the lakeshore • Would help modelling and inventories

• Verification of marine emissions on Lake Michigan • Use satellite data to track NOx plumes over the lake

• Sufficient resolution?

• Better constraints on lake breeze ozone impacts (and other ozone modeling issues) • LADCO will start this project – model sensitivity runs • Will likely produce areas for further study (field & satellite analyses)

• Better constraints on background ozone/boundary conditions • Sources? • LADCO is interested in the Tiger Team on reanalysis for AQ models • Implications for management?

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Thank you!

Angela.dickens@wisconsin.gov 608-264-8862