MAKING GOOD DECISIONSSOMIK RAHA

STANFORD SPLASH 2013

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QUICK EXERCISE

For each situation below, write down whether you agree or disagree.

A. “The terrible situation in Iraq is proof that Bush made a bad decision invading it.”

B. “I decided to breakup with my boyfriend and am so happy now – that shows my decision was good.”

C. “The Columbia shuttle blew up and therefore the decision to let it launch was a bad one.”

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HOW DO YOU JUDGE THE QUALITY OF A DECISION?

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YOU CANNOT JUDGE THE QUALITY OF A DECISION FROM THE OUTCOME!

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Drive Drunk, Crash

Drive Drunk, Safe

Drive Sober, Crash

Drive Sober, Safe

Bad Outcome

Good Outcome

Bad Decision

GoodDecision

WHAT DO YOU SAY NOW?

A. “The terrible situation in Iraq is proof that Bush made a bad decision invading it.”

B. “I decided to breakup with my boyfriend and am so happy now – that shows my decision was good.”

C. “The Columbia shuttle blew up and therefore the decision to let it launch was a bad one.”

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FROM THE ONLINE SURVEY

Making Good Decisions 6

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Political Bias?

Personal Bias?

QUICK EXERCISEFor each situation below, write down whether you agree or disagree with the reasoning below.

A. “We have invested so much time in Afghanistan, and all of that effort would have been for nothing if we pull out now.”

B. “I have invested so much time on my relationship and I don’t want to move on or else all of that investment would be a waste.”

C. “We have spent so much money on tutors and my skills have still not improved. Even though I believe the next tutor will succeed, I don’t want to lose any more money on this.”

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THE SUNK-COST PRINCIPLE

The past matters only for learning, not for accounting!

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WHAT DO YOU SAY NOW?

A. “We have invested so much time in Afghanistan, and all of that effort would have been for nothing if we pull out now.”

B. “I have invested so much time on my relationship and I don’t want to move on or else all of that investment would be a waste.”

C. “We have spent so much money on tutors and my skills have still not improved. Even though I believe the next tutor will succeed, I don’t want to lose any more money on this.”

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FROM THE ONLINE SURVEY

Making Good Decisions 10

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Personal Bias?

HOW DO YOU KNOW YOU’VE MADE A DECISION?

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When you’ve put in some resources (e.g. time/money/energy) that will never come back

to you (i.e. taken action)

WHO IS THE BEST JUDGE OF A GOOD DECISION?

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The Decision-Maker

HOW DO I JUDGE THE QUALITY OF MY DECISION?

From the process used to make the decision

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COOL HEAD

WARM HEART

COOL HEAD

WARM HEART

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Alte

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esFRAME

INTEGRATION

COOL HEAD

WARM HEART

COMMITMENT TO ACTION

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FRAME

What questions should we ask to judge a frame from a cool-head and a warm heart?

JUDGING OUR FRAME

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Frame: Your window to the world

What’s in? What’s already decided? What’s coming later?

What’s out?

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Should I ask him/her out on a date?

Is this useful?

Is this meaningful?

What questions should we ask to judge this frame from a cool-head and a warm heart? 18

Where and when should I ask him/her out on a date?

Is this useful?

Is this meaningful?

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How can I get to know him/her at a deeper level?

Is this useful?

Is this meaningful?

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FRAME Useful Meaningful

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INTEGRATION

COOL HEAD

WARM HEART

COMMITMENT TO ACTION

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ALTERNATIVES: What can I do?

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“Honey, do I look fat in this shirt?”

My wife wants to tell me, “It’s not this shirt, you look fat in everything you wear.”

What are her alternatives?

What questions should we ask to judge alternatives from a cool-head and a warm heart?

Distinct, Doable

Creative,Intriguing,

Deepening, Interesting

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“Honey, do I look fat in this shirt?”

My wife wants to tell me, “It’s not this shirt, you look fat in everything you wear.”

What are her alternatives?

“You’d better change into another shirt.”

“You look wonderful!”

“Sorry, its not the shirt, its you. You look fat in every shirt you wear.”

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Distinct, Doable

Creative,Intriguing,

Deepening, Interesting

“Honey, do I look fat in this shirt?”

My wife wants to tell me, “It’s not this shirt, you look fat in everything you wear.”

What are her alternatives?

“If you’re really asking me whether I love you, the answer is yes, and it has nothing to do with how fat you are. Now, are you still interested in whether you look fat in this shirt?”

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Distinct, Doable

Creative,Intriguing,

Deepening, Interesting

“You are a *#X*?@@!@##!”

I want to beat the hell out of this person.

What are my alternatives?

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Distinct, Doable

Creative,Intriguing,

Deepening, Interesting

“You are a *#X*?@@!@##!”

I want to beat the hell out of this person.

What are my alternatives?

No, you are mistaken.

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Distinct, Doable

Creative,Intriguing,

Deepening, Interesting

“You are a *#X*?@@!@##!”

I want to beat the hell out of this person.

What are my alternatives?

Oh, that was a cannonball that flew over my head! I wonder what made you say that?

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Distinct, Doable

Creative,Intriguing,

Deepening, Interesting

Thank you all for listening to our architect’s plans for the new dorm. Any suggestions from the students? Yes, we feel strongly

about having unisex toilets?

Oh oh.

What’s the head of the committee thinking?

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Yes, we feel strongly about having unisex toilets?

But I want to honor the students’ suggestion.

This is sure to fail a month or two after we make it, and we will have to rebuild the toilets.

Distinctive, Doable

Creative, Intriguing, Deepening

What can I do?

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Use Options thinking, create an option

Make two bathrooms instead of one, but make both of them unisex

If it doesn’t work out, simply change the signs

Distinct, Doable

Creative, Intriguing, Deepening, Interesting32

FRAME Useful Meaningful

ALTERNATIVES Distinct, Doable

Creative, Intriguing, Deepening, Interesting

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Alte

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COMMITMENT TO ACTION

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INFORMATION: What do I know?

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“I know this test is disgusting, but I want you to take it. Do you have any questions?”

What should you ask the doctor?

What questions should we ask to judge information from a cool-head and a warm heart?

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“I know this test is disgusting, but I want you to take it. Do you have any questions?”

What would you do differently depending on the result of the test?

What questions should we ask to judge information from a cool-head and a warm heart?

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“I know this test is disgusting, but I want you to take it. Do you have any questions?”

For positive cases, what fraction has the test reported as “positive?”

For negative cases, what fraction has the test reported as “negative?”

What questions should we ask to judge information from a cool-head and a warm heart?

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“You are a *#X*?@@!@##!”

I want to beat the hell out of this person.

What are my alternatives?

Oh, that was a cannonball that flew over my head! I wonder what made you say that?

What questions should we ask to judge information from a cool-head and a warm heart?

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FRAME Useful Meaningful

ALTERNATIVES Distinct, Doable

Creative, Intriguing, Deepening, Interesting

INFORMATION Reliable, Relevant

Interesting, Exploratory, Surprising

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Alte

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COMMITMENT TO ACTION

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Alice: ‘Would you tell me, please, which way I ought to go from here?’Cheshire Cat: ‘That depends a good deal on where you want to get to’Alice: ‘I don't much care where—’Cheshire Cat: ‘Then it doesn't matter which way you go’Alice: ‘—so long as I get SOMEWHERE’Cheshire Cat: 'Oh, you're sure to do that, if you only walk long enough.'

For the one who believes every outcome is the right outcome, there is no decision to be made.

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COOL HEAD

WARM HEART

COOL HEAD

WARM HEART

What questions should we ask to judge our values from a cool-head and a warm heart?

What are my preferences? What metrics do I need to use? How do I tradeoff these metrics?

Who do I want to be? Inspirational

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“Honey, do I look fat in this shirt?”

My wife wants to tell me, “It’s not this shirt, you look fat in everything you wear.”

What are her alternatives?

If you’re really asking me whether I love you, the answer is yes, and it has nothing to do with how fat you are. Now, are you still interested in whether you look fat in this shirt?

Preferences/ metrics/ tradeoffs

Who do I want to be?

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“I dare you to a fight.”

Insulted over something and challenged to a fight, standing eyeball-to-eyeball, before the

first blow is given. I pause and think.

What should I be thinking?

Can I really win? (RELIABLE, USEFUL INFORMATION)

Do I want to get hurt?(PREFERENCES)

How do I get out of this?(CREATIVE ALTERNATIVES)

I don’t really want to hurt anyone (WHO DO I WANT TO BE)

How can getting out still be cool for both of us? (INTRIGUING ALTERNATIVES)

True 11th grade story

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“I dare you to a fight.”

Insulted over something and challenged to a fight, standing eyeball-to-eyeball, before the

first blow is given. I pause and think.

I say, “Dude, you are a strong guy, and I can’t beat you. But if you swing, so will I, and both of us will

be hurt. Since neither of us can win without getting hurt, there’s no point fighting. Why not go

back to our seats?”

He grins, and says, “Good idea.”

True 11th grade story

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“Where should we take our company in the next five

years?”

How can we sustainably serve the world?

Who do we want to be?

Road Values Mountain Values

What big impact on the world do I want to have in my career at

Company XYZ 47

Videos of two companies sharing values with their employees• Southwest• Apple

FRAME Useful Meaningful

ALTERNATIVES

INFORMATION Reliable, Relevant

VALUESPreferences, Metrics, Tradeoffs

Inspirational

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Distinct, Doable

Creative, Intriguing, Deepening, Interesting

Interesting, Exploratory, Surprising

Alte

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COOL HEAD

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COMMITMENT TO ACTION

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INTEGRATION

COOL HEAD

WARM HEART

What questions should we ask to judge our integration from a cool-head and a warm heart?

Am I using the right logic?Logical Reasoning

Am I taking everyone along?Narrative, Community

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QUESTION

If someone is a haemophiliac, what is your probability that this person is a male?

If someone is a male, what is your probability that this person has haemophilia?

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Male given Haemophiliac Haemophiliac given Male

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3%33%

27%33%

3%50%

13%27%

7%

3%

Male given Haemophiliac Haemophiliac given Male

http://themedicalbiochemistrypage.org/hemophilia-a.html

Haemophilia A: 1 in 5000 males; 1 in 50 million females

Joint Probability0.02% Haemophiliac

0.01%50% Male

99.98% Not Haemophiliac49.99%

0.000002% Haemophiliac0.000001%

50% Female

99.999998% Not Haemophiliac49.999999%

Joint Probability99.99% Male

0.01%0.01% Haemophiliac

0.01% Female0.000001%

49.99% Male49.99%

99.99% Not Haemophiliac

50.01% Female49.999999%

Associative Logic Error: Treating M|H

same as H|M

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3%33%

27%33%

3%50%

13%27%

7%

3%

QUESTION

If someone has lung cancer, what is your probability that this person was a smoker?

If someone is a smoker, what is your probability that this person will get lung cancer?

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Smoker given Lung Cancer Lung Cancer given Smoker

What do you notice?

The weight is in the lower half on the right! Could this be an associative logic error?

Male given Haemophiliac Haemophiliac given Male

3%33%

27%33%

3%50%

13%27%

7%

3%

17%30%

13%40%

3%13%

20%40%

13%10%

Smoker given Lung Cancer Lung Cancer given Smoker

CDC: 19.3% of all Americans are smokers (2010)National Cancer Institute: 226,000 Americans in 2012 will be diagnosed with lung cancerUS Census Bureau: 313 million people in the US as of Apr 21,2012% with lung cancer: 0.07%Lung Cancer Prognosis: 8.9% of around 25,000 lung cancer patients were never smokers; therefore 91.1% of lung cancer patients were smokers

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Smoker given Lung Cancer Lung Cancer given Smoker

CDC: 19.3% of all Americans are smokers (2010)National Cancer Institute: 226,000 Americans in 2012 will be diagnosed with lung cancerUS Census Bureau: 313 million people in the US as of Apr 21,2012% with lung cancer: 0.07%Lung Cancer Prognosis: 8.9% of around 25,000 lung cancer patients were never smokers; therefore 91.1% of lung cancer patients were smokers

Joint Probability91.10% Smoker

0.06%0.07% Lung Cancer

8.90% Never Smoker0.01%

19.3% Smoker19.286490%

99.93% No Lung Cancer

80.7% Never Smoker80.643510%

Joint Probability0.33% Lung Cancer

0.06%19.35% Smoker

99.67% No Lung Cancer19.29%

0.01% Lung Cancer0.01%

80.65% Never Smoker

99.99% No Lung Cancer80.64%

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NARRATIVE

Logic is not enough

We need a powerful narrative that helps us connect with our deepest values

The narrative helps us rally together as a community

Let’s watch a video:

• Apple – WWDC 1997, Steve Jobs provides a narrative at Apple’s Worldwide Developer Conference – 05:00-07:00

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FRAME Useful Meaningful

ALTERNATIVES

INFORMATION Reliable, Relevant

VALUESPreferences, Metrics, Tradeoffs

Inspirational

INTEGRATION Logic/ Reasoning

Narrative, Community

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Distinct, Doable

Creative, Intriguing, ExcitingInteresting, Exploratory, Surprising

Alte

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COOL HEAD

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COMMITMENT TO ACTION

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COOL HEAD

WARM HEART

COMMITMENT TO ACTION

What are my action plans?Action planning

Am I dedicated to the vision? Leadership, Followership, Quality Commitments

VIDEO

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COOL HEAD

WARM HEART

COMMITMENT TO ACTION

KNOWING-DOING GAPWe know what’s good for us, but we still don’t do it

AWARENESSHow can we become more aware of our choices?

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FRAME Useful Meaningful

ALTERNATIVES

INFORMATION Reliable, Relevant,Decisive

VALUESPreferences, Metrics, Tradeoffs

Inspirational

INTEGRATION Logic/ Reasoning

Narrative, Community

COMMITMENT TO ACTION

Action Plans Leadership, Followership 63

Distinct, Doable

Creative, Intriguing, ExcitingInteresting, Exploratory, Surprising

YOUR LEARNING

What are you going to take back with you?

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THANK YOU!

somik.raha@gmail.com

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