Post on 01-Jan-2016
description
Major factors influencing food security in Southern Africa
GOSA 2011
Presented by Pieter Esterhuysen
09/03/11
1 billion people do not have enough to eat = › populations of USA/EU/Canada
Malnutrition is the worlds largest risk to health - greater than the combined risk of Aids/Malaria/Tuberculoses
98 percent of the world's hungry live in developing countries
Women = 50% world's population, but 60 % hungry
10.9 million children under five die in developing countries each year
1 out of 4 children - roughly 146 million - in developing countries are underweight
Lack of Vitamin A kills a million infants a year
Food security exists when all people, at alltimes have physical and economic access
to sufficient , safe and nutritious food to meettheir dietary needs and food preferences
for an active and healthy life (FAO)
The concept of Food Security
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2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10
Vol
ume
(Mill
ion
Ton
s)
Production Consumption
World maize production and consumption
Food security in Southern Africa
SSA has a serious food security problem
Up to 90 of food production is rain fed35% of GDP40% of exports70% of employment80% of staple needsUp to 50% below poverty linePop. growth = +-2% › production growthThus – food gap is growing
Food security in Southern Africa
Affordability = Can I get it when I need it? Availability = Is there enough?
50% of our continents population earn $1 and less per dayIndividuals are poor in our continentFood security is in the first place a socio-economic issue
More food is not = to less hunger/ more food security
Country (GDP/capita) vs. individual disposable income (Botswana = US$8 000 pa) Economic growth (sluggish but picking up)Unemployment rate (10% tot 60% ??)Distribution of income and wealthNGO and GO programmes
Affordability
Action
NGO and GO programmes (food supply and supply driven)Programmes to stimulate small scale production (360%)Stimulate economic growth (poor people to share)Land ownership issues and other policy issuesAll other issues hampering development of the ag sector
Affordability
Availability
Availability ≠ local productionAvailability ≠ surplus in a country/region
Availability of staple = sophisticated effective integration ofthe food value chain
Availability
1. Infrastructure
Food Security demands safe storage
Storage (distribution/local crop – 20%)Support SGRBag focusLack of critical massLocation and managementNo specialised profit motiveGood growth (NGO and GO)
Zam 2 milZim 3.5 milMal 0.7 milMoz 0.045 milTan 0.25 mil
Availability
1. Infrastructure
Food Security demands a free flow of grains
Road, rail and port
Major problem
East London/Durban/Maputo/Beira/Nacala/MombasaRoad and rail in the RSA ????East West and North South corridors (SADC – China?)
Availability
2. Markets (Price discovery)
Natural Food security demands transparent prices and base recognition
SAFEX ZamACE ACE (Malawi) ZIMACE
(liquidity/cash/trust/storage solution/Price?)
Availability
3. Status of trading community
Food security demands solutions for time,location, access problems
Hated species Solve the time problemSolve the location problemSolve the standardisation problemProvide market accessNeeds resources and riskEnemy = gov. intervention/currency
Availability
4. Financing options
Food security demands a well functioning commodity value chain (carry finance)
HIGH LOW SPREAD (FINANCING??)Africa trade cash!Lack of acceptable storageLack of liquidityLack of transparent pricesLack of hedging optionsOwnership arrangements - security
Availability
5. Government involvement
Food Security ‘demands’ what? The market solved the RSA problem (transparent/stable playing field)
Intervention in pricesIntervention in trading optionsAdministration/policies (borders)SGR (procurement and liquidation)Based on trust problem
(inward logistics/political sensitivity-Malawi elections – fertiliser, Zimbabwe aid distribution)
Zim = 0.5 mil mtZam = 0.2 mil mtMal = 0.2 mil mtTan = 0.1 mil mtMoz = 0.06 mil mt
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500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Years
Mai
ze P
rod
uct
ion
(00
0 to
on
es)
Availability
6. Small scale vs. Commercial production
Food security demands availability and affordability
Policies/investment focused commercial productionFormal inputs = import parity pricedCannot compete in local marketsProvide tradable commodity – not affordable foodIncrease small scale production???
Country Cleared Arable land
Arable land cultivated
Maize yield
Total maize production
SADC+Kenya-RSA
77 million Ha
31 % 1.1 Mt/Ha
16 million Mt
Food Aid = 700 000 mt to 1.5 million mt
Maize production in Southern Africa
Double hectares = +16 mil mtDouble yields = +16 mil mtHalve post harvest losses = + 800 000 mt
Total availability = 62.7 mil mtPrevious available = 14.4 mil mt
Maize production increase
Economic effect
Effect on region
+- US$ 8 billion (+-R56 000 000 000)
Effect on a household
Old income = $80New income = $360
Income increase = 350%
FOOD SECURITY CAN BE ANALYSEDFOOD SECURITY CAN BE THE TOPIC TO PHILOSIFYING
FOOD SECURITY CAN BE A POLITICAL INSTRUMENTFOOD SECURITY CAN BE TRADED
FOOD SECURITY CAN PROVIDE PROFITSFOOD SECURITY COULD JUSTIFY THE EXISTANCE OF NGO’S
?
FOOD SECURITY CAN BE ALL THESE THINGSBUT
IN ESSENCE, FOOD SECURITY DISCRIBES
THE BASIC STATE OF HUMAN KIND
I CARE ABOUT THAT
FOOD SECURITY