Magleby chapter7 ppt

7Public Opinion, Ideology, Participation, and Voting

7Learning Objectives

Identify the forces that create and shape individuals’ political attitudes7.1

Describe the key dimensions of public opinion, how public opinion is measured, and the relationship between public opinion and public policy

Compare and contrast political ideologies and evaluate the critiques of each ideology

Identify forms of political participation, and assess the effect on voter turnout of demographic, legal, and electioneering factors

Analyze why people vote the way they do in elections7.5

Forming Political Opinions and Values Political Socialization – the process by which

develop their political values, attitudes and beliefs Stability and Change Awareness and Interest

Political Socialization Family is the #1 influence on political

partisanship Schools

Pledge of Allegiance introduces respect for country Peers and social media Mass media

Selective exposure – intentional avoidance of anything that contradicts a voter’s political beliefs

Other influences Religious, ethnic, racial backgrounds Not all conform to stereotypes

Facebook 7.1

Stability and Change

Core values remain stable over time – (opinions on issues such as abortion or the death penalty)

Extraordinary events such as war can be catalysts for change

Deliberation (a sober and considerate interchange of ideas, differences and opinions) promotes social capital

FIGURE 7.1: Comparison of opinion of President George W. Bush and Barack Obama with attitude on abortion over time

Awareness and Interest

The general public has little knowledge of candidates and issues

Attentive public is approximately 25% of total adult population

Participants have more influence than nonparticipants

7.1 Which of the following is the most powerful agent of socialization?

a. Schoolsb. The mass mediac. Peer groupsd. Family

7.1 Which of the following is the most powerful agent of socialization?

Public Opinion: Taking thePulse of the People What Is Public Opinion? Public Opinion and Public Policy Measuring Public Opinion

What Is Public Opinion?

Distribution of individual preferences within a specific population Proportion of people with an opinion vs. those opposing

or without Most accurately measured through polling

Measuring Public Opinion Random sampling – a small number of people can

accurately represent the opinions of a larger population Margin of error – the percentage that poll results can

be off Intensity - Measures how strongly an individual holds a

particular opinion Latency - Political opinions that are held but not yet

expressed Salience - An individual’s belief that an issue is

important or relevant to him or her

Polls 7.2

TABLE 7.1 The way you ask the question matters

TABLE 7.2: Differing opinions on gay marriage

Public Opinion and Public Policy Polling

How politicians are informed of public opinion Polls are paid by politicians, public, or the media

Cyclical relationship Opinion shapes policy, which shapes opinion

7.2 Which of the following refers to the proportion of the population that holds a particular opinion?

a. Salienceb. Margin of errorc. Latencyd. Distribution

7.27.2 Which of the following refers to the proportion of the population that holds a particular opinion?

a. Salienceb. Margin of errorc. Latencyd. Distribution

Political Ideology and Attitudes Toward Government Liberalism Conservatism Socialism and Communism Libertarianism

Liberalism

Contemporary liberals Believe that government can bring about justice and

equality of opportunity Criticisms of liberalism

Over-reliance on government, taxes, and bureaucracy Not fiscally responsible Hurts economic growth

Pro-abortion protest 7.3

Conservatism – 2 types

Traditional conservatives Believe in private property rights and free enterprise Pro business Want small government - Believe government should only provide national

defense, law and order, encourage economic growth, and promote family values

Social conservatives Focus less on economics and more on morality and lifestyle

Criticisms of conservatism Urge more government when it serves their own purposes

No Child Left Behind 7.3

This legislation has been attacked by conservatives for its interference with local control of education.

Liberals criticized the poor implementation of the act and its inadequate funding.

Signed into law by President Bush, this act set standards for educational attainment based on standardized tests.

TABLE 7.3: Differences in political ideology 7.2

Ideology is correlated to sex, age, religion, education, and political party.

Senator Jim DeMint 7.3

The Tea Party MovementA grassroots conservative movement that arose in 2009 after Barack Obama became president. The movement opposes big government and current levels of taxation, and also rejects political compromise.

Senator Richard Durbin 7.3

A liberal senator from Illinois meeting with reporters to introduce a bipartisan bill on marketplace fairness

Socialism and Communism Socialism — public ownership of the means of production

Wide role for government-provided social programs Communism – state-owned property and a single political

Libertarianism

Stress individual liberties and sharply limited government Support withdrawal from United Nations

Would repeal laws that regulate personal morality - oppose restrictions on abortion

Ron Paul – a Libertarian who ran for president in 1988, 2008, and 2012

FIGURE 7.2: Ideology over time – very stable in America, most are moderate

7.3 Which ideology is emphatically pro-business?

a. Socialismb. Communismc. Liberalismd. Conservatism

7.37.3 Which ideology is emphatically pro-business?

a. Socialismb. Communismc. Liberalismd. Conservatism

Participation: TranslatingOpinions into Action Voting Turnout Who Votes? Mobilization How Serious Is Nonvoting?

FIGURE 7.3: Political participation and awareness in the United States

Voting

Registration Has discouraged voting due to extra step Designed to reduce voter fraud Requires proof of residency

Motor Voter bill Eases registration burdens by allowing people to register

to vote while renewing driver’s license Absentee and Early Voting

2008 marked a historical high for absentee voters (voting by mail)

TABLE 7.4: Women’s suffrage timeline 7.4

TABLE 7.5: Changes in voting eligibility standards since 1870

The 19th amendment gave women the right to vote. The 26th amendment lowered the voting age to 18.

Turnout United States holds more elections than

any other democracy Types of elections

General – voters elect officeholders Primary - voters determine party nominees Special - fill political offices that have become vacant

between general elections Turnout - the proportion of voting-age public

that votes - is highest in presidential general elections; lowest in local elections

FIGURE 7.4: Voter turnout in presidential elections, 1789–2008

Presidential general elections have the highest voter turnout of all types of elections

FIGURE 7.5: Voter turnout in presidential and midterm elections, 1992–2010

Who Votes?

Education is the most important predictor in whether people will vote Race Ethnic background

Women have voted in greater numbers than men since 1984 Due to increasing levels of education and employment

This poster urges women to vote

Mobilization

“Banking” the vote - reduces the number of people needed to mobilize on Election Day Mailings and phone calls Encourages early voting

Canvassing potential voters to determine which issues matter to potential voters

Undecided “swing” voters Focus of major mobilization efforts

How Serious Is Nonvoting? 40% of eligible citizens fail to vote

Approximately 80 million people Some argue nonvoting does not change

outcomes Low voter turnout may indicate approval

of the status quo High voter turnout may signal desire for change

TABLE 7.6: Why people do not voteRegistration problems are the main reason

7.4 Which of the following is likely to draw the highest turnout?

a. Congressional special electionb. Gubernatorial primary electionc. Municipal mayoral electiond. Presidential general election

7.47.4 Which of the following is likely to draw the highest turnout?

a. Congressional special electionb. Gubernatorial primary electionc. Municipal mayoral electiond. Presidential general election

Voting Choices

The 3 main elements of the voting choice are: Voting on the Basis of Party Identification Voting on the Basis of Candidates’ appeal Voting on the Basis of Issues

The Impact of Campaigns

Voting on the Basis of Party Party identification

Voters vote most often for a person from the party they prefer Importance of independent voters

Increasing numbers Have the highest number of registered voters of all the parties 3 types: Left-leaning, pure independents, right-leaning

Voting on the Basis of Candidates Candidate appeal

Background Personality Leadership ability

Candidate-centered politics Minimizes partisanship

Private lives and personal character “Character cops”

Voting on the Basis of Issues Issues are less important to voters than Party ID or

candidate appeal “Wedge issues” - motivate particular groups to vote Prospective voting - based on what the candidate promises to do Retrospective issue voting

Rewards/punishes incumbents for performance More likely than prospective issue voting

The Impact of Campaigns

Effective campaigns give voters reasons to vote for their candidate

Importance of money Spending more money does not guarantee a win

Campaigns are often negative and personal

7.5 Which of the following rewards incumbents for good performance?

a. Party identificationb. Wedge issuesc. Prospective issue votingd. Retrospective issue voting

7.57.5 Which of the following rewards incumbents for good performance?

a. Party identificationb. Wedge issuesc. Prospective issue votingd. Retrospective issue voting

How would you describe your own political attitudes? Liberal? Conservative? Does the American political system allow for independent ideologies? How?

Discussion Question 7

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