DRONE PROLIFERATIONMANUFACTURERS, BUYERS,

RESELLERS

MAXINE MAJOROCTOBER 29, 2013

Overview World Perspective Export Control United States

FY14 Budget International Scene

IsraelIranChinaNorth KoreaTurkey

Issues and Ethics

International

50+ countries have surveillance drones Many in-house R&D for armed drones $6.6 billion 2013 $11.4 billion 2022 Israel and the U.S. are largest drone

manufacturersU.S. most frequent userIsrael is top seller

Export Control

Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR)“an informal and voluntary association of countries which share the goals of non-proliferation of unmanned delivery systems capable of delivering weapons of mass destruction, and which seek to coordinate national export licensing efforts aimed at preventing their proliferation.”Founded in 198734 countries including U.S., U.K., Canada,

France, Germany, Italy and Japan

Export Control

MTCR (continued)“restrict the proliferation of missiles,

complete rocket systems, unmanned air vehicles, and related technology for those systems capable of carrying a 500 kilogram payload at least 300 kilometres, as well as systems intended for the delivery of weapons of mass destruction (WMD).”

Includes some rocket systems including space launch vehicles

Export Control

MTCR (continued)Export control restrictions:

○ Rocket systems○ Unmanned air vehicle systems

“with capabilities exceeding a 300km/500kg range/payload threshold”

○ Production facilities○ Major sub-systems

Export Control

MTCR (continued)Export licenses intended to build confidence

that technology will not be used for WMD delivery systems.

End users: ○ End user to specify exact purpose for drones○ Assurance not to be used for WMD○ Post-shipment inspections

Membership in MTCR does not “entitle” one country to freely trade systems and technology with another.

United States

Drone Export$2-$3 billion (2005-2012)Largest client is U.S. Govt.

○ (May be due to tight export controls)Federal restrictions regulate the sale of

dronesMost drone sales prohibited due to the

Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR)

United States

Unmanned Systems Cacaus“advocate for drones”Chaired by 2 congressmen (Rep. & Dem.)8 committee members from the House

Committee on AppropriationsMoney is given to the cacaus to influence

govt. support for research$2.3 million contributions since 2011

○ Much of this comes from drone manufacturers

U.S. FY 2014 Budget http://appropriations.house.gov/uploadedfiles/hrpt-

113-hr-fy2014-defense.pdf

Procurement: $1,870,424,000 21 EA–18G Growler electronic attack aircraft $506,976,000 15 MQ–1 Gray Eagle UAVs $340,391,000 20 MQ–9 Reaper UAVs

R&D $2,867,319,000 Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency

(DARPA)

U.S. Research & Development

EA–18G Growler Manned tactical jammer will replace Prowler Uses “INCANS Interference Cancellation system that will

allow voice communication while jamming enemy communications”

Growler eventually replaced by UAV

“Secretary of the Navy is directed to study the use of un-manned systems for organic airborne electronic attack to augment the Marine Corps current airborne electronic attack and electronic exploitation mission in whole or in part.”

U.S. Exports Most drone sales to North Atlantic Treaty

Organization (NATO) allies U.K. Armed Reapers (2007) Italy Arming 6 Reaper drones

(2012) Iraq Oil protection South Korea 4 RQ-4 Global Hawks

U.S. Exports

United Arab EmiratesInterested in $197 million Predator XPXP = “export”

Australia, Japan, SingaporeInterested in Global Hawks

TurkeyOutstanding request for armed ReapersLikely to be denied

Israel

First country to develop military drone technologyPost 1973 Arab-Israeli war

Drones ½ military flight time Surveillance:

PalestineSyriaLebanon

Silent regarding weaponization

Israel

World’s largest drone exporter$4.6 billion exported (2005-2012)10% of Israel military exports2001-2011 41% of all UAVs exported

Israel

Exports24-49 countries including:

○ Canada, Australia, Russia, Nigeria, India, Germany, Poland, Netherlands, Spain, Azerbaijan, Uganda, Ethiopia

Sold to China until 2005 arms deal with U.S.Sold technology for Orbiter 2M and Aerostar

drones to Azerbijan

Israel

Israel Aerospace Industries“we exist because of the international market.”49 worldwide customers80% UAVs sold to foreign customersShort-term lease agreements (Canada,

Australia)Employs former soldiers

Elbit SystemsIsrael’s 2nd largest drone manufacturer

Iran

RQ-170 SentinelDec 2011 – Downed U.S. RQ-170 Sentinel

reconnaissance drone ○ Crash vs. electronic warfare○ Kept for reverse engineering

Iran

RQ-170 Sentinel (continued)Feb 2013 - Claim to have decoded video

recordingsOct 2013 – Iranian RQ-170

○ “undetectable to radars”○ Adapts heat production to surrounding

temperature

Iran

Shahed 129 (Sept 2013)Iranian R&DPayload: 8 missiles or

bombs, or Sadid missilesRange: 1,700 km (can reach Israel)Duration: 24 hoursFor “Defensive purposes only”

Similar to Israel’s Hermes 450 and Hermes 900

Iran

ScanEagleAnother downed drone (Dec 2012)Incident denied by U.S. Reverse engineered

○ Gave Russia copy as proof (Oct 2013)

China

Internal Use:Arms sales 2007-2011 $11 billion

○ Political○ Profit

Developed to survey disputed islandsIntended to fly in “contested airspace”

http://www.defense.gov/pubs/2013_china_report_final.pdf

China

International MarketDevelop & market UAVs abroadLess expensiveLower quality

Arms manufacturers target foreign buyers

China

Technology1950’s - Reverse-engineered drones

acquired from Soviet Union1960’s - Studied American drones in

Vietnam1990’s – Purchased 100 Harpy armed

drones from IsraelNorthwest Polytechnic University (CPU)

○ 40+ UAV variants developed○ 90% of drone development

China

Technology (continued)Hacking U.S.

○ Linked to Chinese hacker unit “Comment Crew”

○ “gather domestic and international technology”○ “We can only envy their technology. Right

now, we’re learning from them.”

China

ExportsWing Loong/Pterodactyl (Reaper)

○ Exported in 2011○ 2 laser-guided missiles○ “equal of the predator in endurance and flight

range” … but cheaper○ $1,000,000 USD

China

Wing Loong sales:UAEUzbekistan5-6 Africa/Asia nations

Other ExportsPakistan CH-3/CH4 dronesEgypt “whole package air defense

system”

North Korea

Internal drone programReconnaissance drones

○ Based off Chinese D-4 aircraft

Purchased from othersPchela-1T (1990’s)

○ Bought from Russia (1997)

North Korea

MQM-107D StreakerPurchased from Syria (2012)U.S. developed in 1970’sCan be recovered, refueled and reused

○ DPRK intends for kamikaze missions

“anything that can fly at high velocity loaded with explosives on the hands of a bunch of psychotic military people is never good news.”

Turkey

Used Israeli drones in Iraq surveillance TAI Anka (“Phoenix”)

Developed by Turkish Aerospace IndustriesEngine produced by German company

ThielertThielert purchased by China’s Avic (Sept

2013) Reconnaissance drone development to

start (Oct 2013)

Others

Pakistan & India claim combat-capable dronesUnconfirmed

HizballahMay have used drones in Lebanon (2006)

Countries with UAVsArgentina

Armenia

Australia

Austria

Belgium

Brazil

Bulgaria

Canada

Chile

China

Czech Republic

Finland

France

Germany

Greece

India

Indonesia

Iran

Israel

Italy

Japan

Jordan

Latvia

Malaysia

Mexico

Netherlands

New Zealand

Pakistan

Peru

Philippines

Poland

Portugal

Romania

Russia

Serbia

Singapore

Slovenia

South Africa

South Korea

Spain

Sweden

Switzerland

Sweden

Taiwan

Thailand

Tunisia

Turkey

Thailand

United Arab Emirates

United Kingdom

Vietnam

Issues & Ethics Non-weaponized drones still provide unmanned

aerial technology. Weaponized models can be developed from surveillance

models. Any customer is a potential reseller.

Weapons sold to allies can be sold to enemies. Old technology is still viable technology. A refusal to sell is encouragement to develop. China makes everything cheaper.

Issues & Ethics “The U.S. has set a dangerous precedent with its

use of drones as it now sees the world as a global battlefield… Are other countries also going to claim that vast authority with this technology? I guess we'll have to see.”

Naureen Shah - Associate Director of the Counterterrorism and Human Rights Project (Columbia Law School)

Issues & Ethics

The U.S. is not the primary exporter, but“we’re creating an international norm”

Things the U.S. is criticized for now will be shared by others soon.China’s plan to assassinate man in

Myanmar Airspace disputes

Questions?

References http://www.rferl.org/content/drones_who_makes_them_and_who_has_them/24469168.html http://appropriations.house.gov/ http://unmannedsystemscaucus.mckeon.house.gov/ http://www.boeing.com/boeing/bds/phantom_works/phantom_eye.page http://www.mtcr.info/english/index.html http://www.gallowayfoundation.org/category-drones-proliferation-and-technology/ http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4438796,00.html http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4433889,00.html http://www.presstv.ir/detail/2013/02/07/287743/iran-releases-decoded-video-from-us-drone/ http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-21373353 http://en.trend.az/news/society/2205442.html http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/chinas-buying-of-german-firm-risk-for-turkish-uav.aspx?

pageID=238&nID=54563&NewsCatID=483 http://fpc.state.gov/documents/organization/180677.pdf http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/139405/andrew-erickson-and-austin-strange/china-has-drones-now-what http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/asia-pacific/china/121114/china-unveils-new-drones-developing-

economies http://gizmodo.com/5882687/north-koreas-newest-killer-drone-comes-from-the-usa english.chosun.com/site/data/html_dir/2012/02/06/2012020601274.html http://www.atimes.com/koreas/CD03Dg01.html http://project2049.net/documents/uav_easton_hsiao.pdf http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702303395604577432323658176792 http://www.globalresearch.ca/drone-proliferation-in-europe-domestic-surveillance-and-unmanned-warfare/5335752 http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-defense/israel-is-world-s-largest-exporter-of-drones-study-finds.premium-

1.524771

References (continued) http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052970204844504577098583174059746 http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/06/26/AR2005062600544.html http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/news/world/story/2012-05-20/iraq-oil-drones/55099590/1 http://www.kpbs.org/news/2012/jul/05/drone-makers-friends-washington/ http://defensesystems.com/articles/2012/07/25/agg-syria-drones.aspx http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-12-24/south-korea-to-buy-1-2-billion-in-drones-under-u-s-plan.html http://articles.washingtonpost.com/2012-12-25/world/36016122_1_spy-drones-global-hawk-spread-of-

ballistic-missiles http://articles.latimes.com/2013/feb/22/business/la-fi-predator-drone-sale-20130223 http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/03/11/companies-making-drones_n_2849569.html http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/03/20/us-korea-north-drones-idUSBRE92J0JI20130320 http://i-hls.com/2013/05/israel-as-unmanned-air-systems-super-power/ http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/06/05/israel-world-largest-drone-exporter_n_3392034.html http://www.china.org.cn/business/2013-06/20/content_29174460.htm http://www.uasvision.com/2013/06/26/china-claims-six-potential-customers-for-wing-loong/ http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2013/sep/9/japan-dispatches-jets-drone-flies-disputed-islands/ http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/21/world/asia/hacking-us-secrets-china-pushes-for-drones.html?_r=0 http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/21/world/asia/hacking-us-secrets-china-pushes-for-drones.html?

pagewanted=1&_r=0 http://www.upi.com/Business_News/Security-Industry/2013/10/07/Iran-claims-breakthrough-with-Israeli-

lookalike-combat-UAVs/UPI-45741381165461/ http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/oct/21/iran-russia-us-scaneagle-spy-drone-production-capture http://www.algemeiner.com/2013/10/23/analysis-turkeys-fruitless-quest-for-armed-drones/