Post on 03-Jan-2016
description
Mesoscale meteorology modeling and sensitivity analysis for the south of Chile
region using WRF-ARW model
Luis Alonso Díaz Robles, Joshua S. Fu, Alberto Vergara-Fernández, Norman Vergaray
Departamento de Ingeniería Química, Universidad de Santiago de Chilealonso.diaz.r@usach.cl
Very Complex Tarrainand several kindof climates
Santiago
Talca
Chillán
Rancagua
Temuco
Concepción
CoyhaiqueOsorno
19962009
2010
2007
2005
2013
2012
2012
PM10PM10
PM10
PM10
PM10
PM10PM2.5
PM10
PM10PM2.5
PM2.5
2013
Almost
9 milli
ons perso
ns expose
to w
ood smoke every
year
Health Costs
: 7 m
illions U
SD per year, A
GIES PM2.5 from D
ICTUC
ValdiviaPM2.52014
Beijing versus TemucoSaturday, January the 12th 2013
PM2.5 = 993 ug/m3PM2.5 = 300 ug/m3 24-hr
PM2.5 = 993 ug/m3PM2.5 = 291 ug/m3 24-hr
Friday, August 26th 2012
PM2.5 annual Concentration in Latin America [ug/m3]
America Socc
er Cup, C
hile 2015
90102 90601 91029 1003281008251101221106211111181204161209131302101307101312071405060
50100150200250300350400
MP2,5 Norma 24-h
Conc
entr
ation
[ug/
m3]
PM2.5 daily concentration at Temuco
PointSources
1.6%
Residential Wood Combustion 95.8%
Open Burning
2.0%
MobileSources
0.7%
PM2.5 Emission InventoryTemuco, 2012
Several of them use wood either
High PM Emissions
Incomplete combustionIncomplete combustion
Wet Wood
Poor technologyQ
Q
Poor Thermal Isolation
Uninformed consumer
Air QualityThe Problem
Fuelwood consumption per household m3 /year
ValparaisoSantiago
RancaguaLota
ChillanConcepcion
AraucaniaTemuco
VillarricaLos Lagos
ValdiviaOsorno
Rio negroLa Union
Puerto MonttAncudCastro
QuellonCoihaique
AisenPuerto Chacabuco
0 5 10 15 20 25
13
M3/year
Lenga, Ñirre
Ulmo, Luma, Tepú, Mañío
Roble, Raulí, Aromo, Eucaliptus
Hualle, Roble, Eucaliptus
Eucaliptus y frutales
12.7 m3/year (2013)
8.9 m3/year (2009)
Sout
h of
Chi
le
MP CompositionPAHs Properties
• Mutagenic and carcinogenic species
• WHO Recommendation: maximum
BaP limit (annual average) in PM10:
1 ng m-3
• EPA (1984). Health effects assessment for polycylic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs). U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Cincinnati, Ohio, EPA 540/1-86-013.
• WHO (2000). Air Quality Guidelines for Europe, 2nd Ed. WHO Regional Office for Europe, Copenhagen, Publication Nº 91.
• EU (2005). Directiva 2004/107/EC del Parlamento Europeo y del Consejo, del 15 de Diciembre de 2004, relativa al arsénico, cadmio, mercurio, níquel e hidrocarburos aromático policíclicos en el aire ambiente. Diario Oficial de la Unión Europea, L 23, p. 3 (26-1-2005)
Benzo(a)pyreneBenzo(a)pyrene
FONDECYT Project 1120791, 2012-2015PAHs Modeling on WRF/SMOKE/CMAQ, Benzo(a)Pyrene
Cluster SANTA
Cluster Newton
PM2.5
PUF
PM2.5 versus Benzo[a]pyreneTemuco, Winter of 2013
5/18/2
013
5/20/2
013
5/22/2
013
5/24/2
013
5/26/2
013
5/28/2
013
5/30/2
013
6/1/2
013
6/3/2
013
6/5/2
013
6/7/2
013
6/9/2
013
6/11/2
013
6/13/2
013
6/15/2
013
6/17/2
013
6/19/2
013
6/21/2
013
6/23/2
013
6/25/2
013
6/27/2
013
6/29/2
013
7/1/2
013
7/3/2
013
7/5/2
013
7/7/2
013
7/9/2
013
7/11/2
013
7/13/2
013
7/15/2
013
7/17/2
013
7/19/2
013
7/21/2
013
7/23/2
013
7/25/2
013
7/27/2
013
7/29/2
013
7/31/2
0130.0
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
250.0
300.0
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
PM 2.5 [ug/m3] Benzo[a]pyrene [ng/m3]
WHO recommendation 1 ng/m3 annual in PM10
EPA MethodGC/MS
Modeling Nested Domain
18 6 2 km
Temuco city Location
100
200
300
400
500
Metros
100
200
300
400
500
Metros
Temuco and Padre Las Casas
Temuco urban area, Chile• Located 800 Km south of
Santiago – Chile (Latitude 38° 45’S; Longitude 72° 40’W; 100 m.a.s.l).
• 300,000 inhabitants.• 90% of the population uses
wood for heating in winter season.
Temperate cold rainy with a Mediterranean influence
Temperate warm rainy with a Mediterranean influence
Experimental Design on WRF 3.406/11/2013 to 07/01/2013
Experiment PBL Physics Option Closure Type Land Surface Model Surface Layer Scheme
bl_pbl_physics Scheme sf_surface_physics Model sf_sfclay_physics Scheme
1 7 ACM2 First-order closure 7 Pleim-Xu 7 Pleim-Xu
2 99 MRF Non-local-K mixing 2 Unified Noah LSM 1 Monin-Obukhov
3 2 MYJ TKE 1.5-order 2 Unified Noah LSM 2 Eta Similarity
4 5 MYNN2 TKE 1.5-order 2 Unified Noah LSM 5 MYNN
5 6 MYNN3 TKE 2nd-order 2 Unified Noah LSM 5 MYNN
6 4 QNSE TKE 1.5-order 2 Unified Noah LSM 4 QNSE
7 1 YSU Non-local-K mixing 2 Unified Noah LSM 1 Monin-Obukhov
mp_physics 8Thomsoncu_physics 1Kain-Fritschdiff_6th_opt 1Sixth order numerical diffusionmoist_adv_opt 1Positive definite advection of moisture and scalarsra_lw_physics 1Rapid Radiative Transfer Modelra_sw_physics 1Dudhia
ITEM D1 D2 D3Geographic Projection Lambert ConformalCell size (km) 18 6 2Number of Cells X-Y 100-106 88-94 70-79Number of Layers 39 39 39Terrain resolution 10m 5m 30s
Saide et al, 2011Land use data USGS IC/BC: WRF-FNL (Wu et al., 2002)
Atmospheric Sounding
More than 300
kms
1 9 17 25 33 41 49 57 65 73 81 89 97 105113121129137145153161169177185193201209217225233241249257265273281
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Observed (°C)Exp 1 (°C)Exp 2 (°C)Exp 3 (°C)Exp 4(°C)Exp 6(°C)Exp 7(°C)Te
mpe
ratu
re [°
C]Temperature Performance
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Ob
serv
ed
(°C
)
2 4 6 8 10 12 14Exp 1 (°C)
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Ob
serv
ed
(°C
)
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16Exp 2 (°C)
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Ob
serv
ed (
°C)
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16Exp 3 (°C)
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Obse
rved (
°C)
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16Exp 4(°C)
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Observ
ed (
°C
)
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16Exp 6(°C)
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Observ
ed (
°C)
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16Exp 7(°C)
-4-3-2-101234
Ob
serv
ed
(°C
) R
esi
dua
l
0.0
03
0.0
15
0.0
6
0.1
2
0.2
5
0.5
0.7
5
0.8
8
0.9
4
0.9
85
Normal Quantile
-4-3-2-1012345
Observ
ed (
°C)
Resi
dual
0.0
03
0.0
15
0.0
6
0.1
2
0.2
5
0.5
0.7
5
0.8
8
0.9
4
0.9
85
Normal Quantile
-4-3-2-101234
Ob
serv
ed (
°C
) R
esid
ual
0.0
03
0.0
15
0.0
6
0.1
2
0.2
5
0.5
0.7
5
0.8
8
0.9
4
0.9
85
Normal Quantile
-4-3-2-101234
Obse
rved (
°C)
Resi
dual
0.0
03
0.0
15
0.0
6
0.1
2
0.2
5
0.5
0.7
5
0.8
8
0.9
4
0.9
85
Normal Quantile
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
Observ
ed
(°C
) R
esi
du
al
0.0
03
0.0
15
0.0
6
0.1
2
0.2
5
0.5
0.7
5
0.8
8
0.9
4
0.9
85
Normal Quantile
-3-2-10
1234
Observ
ed (
°C)
Resid
ual
0.0
03
0.0
15
0.0
6
0.1
2
0.2
5
0.5
0.7
5
0.8
8
0.9
4
0.9
85
Normal Quantile
Residuals of the Temperature
Temperature Performance
Statistics Exp 1 Exp2 Exp3 Exp4 Exp6 Exp7RSquare 0.8237 0.7777 0.83493 0.79279 0.82113 0.77762
RSquare Adj 0.8231 0.7769 0.83435 0.79205 0.82050 0.77683
Root Mean Square Error 1.2123 1.3613 1.17303 1.31427 1.22108 1.36152
Error 414.46 522.60 388.03 487.10 420.47 522.76
Observations (or Sum Wgts) 284 284 284 284 284 284
1 8 15 22 29 36 43 50 57 64 71 78 85 92 99 106 113 120 127 134 141 148 155 162 169 176 183 190 197 204 211 218 225 232 239 246 253 260 267 274 2810
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Observed (°C) Exp 3 (°C) Exp 1 (°C)
Tem
pera
ture
[°C]
Wind Speed [m/s]
1 8 15 22 29 36 43 50 57 64 71 78 85 92 99 1061131201271341411481551621691761831901972042112182252322392462532602672742810
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Observed (m/s) EXP 1 EXP2 EXP3EXP4 EXP6 EXP7
Win
d Sp
eed
[m/s
]
0
1
2
3
4
5O
bse
rve
d (
m/s
)
0 2 4 6 8 10EXP 1
0
1
2
3
4
5
Ob
serv
ed (
m/s
)
0 2 4 6 8 10EXP2
0
1
2
3
4
5
Ob
serv
ed
(m
/s)
0 2 4 6 8 10 12EXP3
0
1
2
3
4
5
Ob
serv
ed (
m/s
)
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9EXP4
0
1
2
3
4
5
Ob
serv
ed
(m
/s)
0 2 4 6 8 10 12EXP6
0
1
2
3
4
5
Obse
rved
(m
/s)
0 2 4 6 8 10EXP7
-2.0-1.5-1.0-0.50.00.51.01.52.02.5
Ob
serv
ed
(m
/s)
Re
sid
ual
0.0
03
0.0
15
0.0
6
0.1
2
0.2
5
0.5
0.7
5
0.8
8
0.9
4
0.9
85
Normal Quantile
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
Ob
serv
ed
(m
/s)
Re
sid
ual
0.0
03
0.0
15
0.0
6
0.1
2
0.2
5
0.5
0.7
5
0.8
8
0.9
4
0.9
85
Normal Quantile
-2.0-1.5-1.0-0.50.00.51.01.52.02.5
Ob
serv
ed (
m/s
) R
esid
ual
0.0
03
0.0
15
0.0
6
0.1
2
0.2
5
0.5
0.7
5
0.8
8
0.9
4
0.9
85Normal Quantile
-2.0-1.5-1.0-0.50.00.51.01.52.02.5
Ob
serv
ed
(m
/s)
Re
sid
ual
0.0
03
0.0
15
0.0
6
0.1
2
0.2
5
0.5
0.7
5
0.8
8
0.9
4
0.9
85
Normal Quantile
-2.0-1.5-1.0-0.50.00.51.01.52.02.5
Ob
serv
ed
(m
/s)
Resi
dua
l
0.0
03
0.0
15
0.0
6
0.1
2
0.2
5
0.5
0.7
5
0.8
8
0.9
4
0.9
85
Normal Quantile
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
Ob
serv
ed
(m
/s)
Resid
ual
0.0
03
0.0
15
0.0
6
0.1
2
0.2
5
0.5
0.7
5
0.8
8
0.9
4
0.9
85
Normal Quantile
Residuals of the Wind Speed
Wind Speed Performance
Statistics Exp1 Exp2 Exp3 Exp4 Exp6 Exp7
RSquare 0.5010 0.4887 0.5512 0.5100 0.5428 0.5461
RSquare Adj 0.4993 0.4869 0.5496 0.5082 0.5412 0.5445
Root Mean Square Error 0.7999 0.8097 0.7586 0.7927 0.7656 0.7629
Error 180.430 184.900 162.294 177.191 165.312 164.116
Observations (or Sum Wgts) 284 284 284 284 284 284
PBL [m]
1 8 15 22 29 36 43 50 57 64 71 78 85 92 99 1061131201271341411481551621691761831901972042112182252322392462532602672742810
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
Exp 1 Exp 2 Exp 3 Exp 4 Exp 6 Exp 7
PBL
[m]
WS versus PBL
1 8 15 22 29 36 43 50 57 64 71 78 85 92 99 1061131201271341411481551621691761831901972042112182252322392462532602672742810
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
Observed WS [m/s] Exp3 WS [m/s] PBL Exp3 [m]
WS
[m/s
]
June 16th at 6 AM
June 16th at 6 AM
June 16th at 6 AM
Conclusions• Problems regarding wrong predictions could be related to different
uncertainties in the model, such as the inability of the model to completely resolve the complex Andes and coast topography, and inaccuracy in meteorological initial and boundary conditions.
• At least one sounding is required closer to the polluted urban areas in Chile.
• The best experiment was the Exp3, which used MYJ as the PBL physics option (Janjic, 2002), Unified Noah LSM as land surface model, and Eta Similarity as the Surface Layer Scheme, however, the wind speed did not perform at all.
Acknowledgments
• FONDECYT Project 1120791
Thanks!!!Dr. L. Alonso Díaz Roblesalonso.diaz.r@usach.cl
ISI, Q1, índice de impacto últimos 5 años = 3.4Número de Citas = 63
ISI, Q1, índice de impacto últimos 5 años = 2.8Número de Citas = 20
ISI, Q1, índice de impacto últimos 5 años = 2.8
ISI, Q1, índice de impacto últimos 5 años = 6.4