Professor Peter Burns

Project International Chief Technical AdviserUniversity of Bedfordshire

Tourism and Climate Change: Global PerspectivesTourism and Climate Change: Global Perspectives

The shift from 20th to 21st century living• The death of distance (Cairncross)• Demographics

• Different for developed and developing worlds• Fragmented and single family units• Shift to urban living (2007 crossed the 50%

threshold)• Gender equality remains unsatisfactory

• Liquid modernity (Bauman)• Tourism mobility no longer a by product of

household surplus income• Search for ‘authenticity, inspiration, rejuvenation’• Emergence of the ‘sharing economy’

• The death of distance (Cairncross)• Demographics

• Different for developed and developing worlds• Fragmented and single family units• Shift to urban living (2007 crossed the 50%

threshold)• Gender equality remains unsatisfactory

• Liquid modernity (Bauman)• Tourism mobility no longer a by product of

household surplus income• Search for ‘authenticity, inspiration, rejuvenation’• Emergence of the ‘sharing economy’

Remapping global politics and economics

• Fukuyama was wrong!• The ‘rise of the rest’ (Zakaria’s

post-American global economy)• Wall Street ethos of ‘Greed is

good’ was wrong and is wrong• Globally, poor gender balance is

still inhibiting equality andgrowth

• Fukuyama was wrong!• The ‘rise of the rest’ (Zakaria’s

post-American global economy)• Wall Street ethos of ‘Greed is

good’ was wrong and is wrong• Globally, poor gender balance is

still inhibiting equality andgrowth

But the world remains a confusing place…

http://logicalscience.blogspot.com/2006_10_01_archive.html

SE Europe under threat 2050?

http://panokroko.wordpress.com/2012/12/19/the-environmental-parliament-issued-report-that-says-governments-should-act-forcefully/screen-shot-2012-12-19-at-11-18-02/

A perfect storm on the way?

Individual and societal response?

1 billion tourist arrivals (13th December 2012!)1.8 billion by 2020?

IPCC AR5 (2013) on Europe

Weird stuff is happening…

Tourism is mentioned in IPCC AR5…

IPCC AR5 WGIII (2014)…IPCC AR5 WGIII (2014)…

Tourism and IPCCAR5 WGIII (2014)

Global tourism hotspots (UNWTO/ UNEP)

Extreme positions for tourism…

• Worst case scenario: oil prices and globalwarming may produce such catastrophicchanges to society that tourism becomesirrelevant to society

• Best case scenario: adaptation, mitigation, andtechnological innovation reduce tourism’scarbon footprint to zero

• Just a thought: Can interactive technology offercarbon-neutral virtual tourist experiencesthrough shared virtual environments?

• Worst case scenario: oil prices and globalwarming may produce such catastrophicchanges to society that tourism becomesirrelevant to society

• Best case scenario: adaptation, mitigation, andtechnological innovation reduce tourism’scarbon footprint to zero

• Just a thought: Can interactive technology offercarbon-neutral virtual tourist experiencesthrough shared virtual environments?

And the future of tourism?

Or this?

Ski Dubai !!

Or this?

Tourism summary…

• The traditional climate/ weather/ tourismrelationship is no longer a stable or reliable part ofthe product mix

• Changes in consumption patterns and climaticconditions will impact on suppliers and destinations

• Changes in consumption patterns and climaticconditions will impact on suppliers and destinations

• Climate change impacts will happen up and downthe value/ supply chains creating opportunities andneed for innovation, adaptation, and mitigation

The research continues…