Post on 17-Mar-2022
© Euromonitor International
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10
% y
-o-y
gro
wth
Emerging vs Advanced Economies % Real GDP Growth 2000-2015
Emerging Advanced World
Economic polarisation at workECONOMIC UPDATE
Source: Euromonitor International, IMF
Global recovery in slowdown, double dip fears Balance of power shifts to emerging markets
© Euromonitor International
4
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
%
“Misery Index” in Key Advanced Economies 2005-2016
Japan USA United Kingdom Eurozone
Misery index shows stagnation in advanced economiesECONOMIC UPDATE
Source: Euromonitor International from IMF, Eurostat, ILO, national statistics
Note: “Misery Index” is the sum of inflation and unemployment rate
Misery index increased in 2011, to improve from 2012 High unemployment and prices in advanced economies squeeze income
© Euromonitor International
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Emerging population
6.2bn
2015
Emerging population
6.2bn
2015
853m middle
class households
2015
853m middle
class households
2015
China to be world’s largest
economy 2017
China to be world’s largest
economy 2017
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
% o
f p
op
ula
tio
n
Urban Population 2005-2015
2005 2010 2015
Demographic growth boosts emerging middle classECONOMIC UPDATE
Source: Euromonitor International
© Euromonitor International
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Income tipping point for outbound travelECONOMIC UPDATE
Morocco
Philippines
Note: size of bubble reflects outbound departures in volume 2015Middle class defined by average gross income of over US$5,000
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 18.0
Ou
tgo
ing
to
uri
sm e
xp
en
dit
ure
%
CA
GR
20
10-1
5
Number of middle class households growth % CAGR 2010-15
Rising Middle Class as Growth Catalyst for Outbound Travel
China
India
Indonesia
Uzbekistan
Ukraine
Vietnam
Egypt Pakistan
Philippines
Russia
Brazil
Thailand
© Euromonitor International
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Emerging markets growing importance for outbound tourismTOURISM PERFORMANCE
-
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
-
100
200
300
400
500
600
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
US
$ a
ve
rag
e sp
en
d
Mil
lio
n t
rip
s
Developed vs Emerging Outbound Tourism Demand 2010-2015
developed departures emerging departures
developed average spend emerging average spend
Departures from emerging markets 325m 2011, to reach 43% share by 2015 But differential in average spend remains
© Euromonitor International
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China, Russia and India lead new sources of demand
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
‘00
0 t
rip
s a
bso
lute
in
cre
ase
20
10-1
5
Outbound Departures Forecast Absolute Increase 2010-2015
Millionaires departure club TOURISM PERFORMANCE
Source: Euromonitor InternationalNote: based on forecast increment of 1 million departures
© Euromonitor International
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Brazil 6m
departures
High average outbound spend
US$3,000
Open Skies liberates traffic
with Europe and America
Russia 54m
departures
Online travel to take off with
Expedia entry
India 22m
departures
Greater choice of packages at
affordable prices
China 62m
departures
US$77bn
Outbound spending
Asia destinations popular - Thailand,
Malaysia
BRICs long term outbound appealTOURISM PERFORMANCE
Note: forecast departures for 2015
© Euromonitor International
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5.4m departures, up 2%, outgoing expenditure US$22bn up 38%
Airline mergers LAN / TAM, Gol / Webjet
Travel retail innovation eg CVC “World to Brazilians”
Growing importance of social networking
18,064.1
8,096.1
13,103.5
956.21,912.3
3,089.11,576.9
Brazilian Outbound Tourism Expenditure 2015
Accommodation
Entertainment
Excursions
Food
Shopping
Travel Within Country
Other
Brazil outbound in focusTOURISM PERFORMANCE
Source: Euromonitor International
© Euromonitor International
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Destination Asia: arrivals 2011TOURISM PERFORMANCE1
> 25 million arrivals > 20 million arrivals> 15 million arrivals> 10 million arrivals> 5 million arrivals< 5 million arrivals
Asia Top 12 Growth
2010 13%2011 4%2012 6%
Japan Arrivals Growth
2010 25%2011 -30%2012 10%
Source: Euromonitor International
© Euromonitor International
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Intra-regional travel remains mainstay of Asian demandTOURISM PERFORMANCE
-
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
Ge
rma
ny
Au
stra
lia
US
Ru
ssia
Bra
zil
Sa
ud
i A
rab
ia
Ka
zak
hst
an
Ch
ina
So
uth
Ko
rea
Ta
iwa
n
Sin
ga
po
re
InternationalAdvanced
Emerging Markets Asia Advanced
'00
0 t
rip
s
Outbound Tourism Flows from Key Markets to Asia 2010-2015
2010
2015
Note: based on departures to top 12 Asian destinations, China excludes departures to Hong Kong
© Euromonitor International
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Asia to account for 33% of world air passenger traffic by 2030 (Airbus)
LCCs high growth and new launches - Air Asia Philippines/Japan
Long haul low cost - Air Asia X, Jetstar joined by SIA’s Scoot
Asia at core of emerging demand, driven by air transportationCATEGORY DEVELOPMENTS
0 2 4 6 8
China
India
Indonesia
Malaysia
U$S billion
Low Cost Carriers Sales US$ billion in Key Asian Countries 2010/2015
2015
2010
Source: Euromonitor International
© Euromonitor International
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Dubai International aim for world’s busiest airport, 99m passengers by 2020
Emirates leads Middle East to China, 34% of 1.3m
Middle East – Far East premium passenger growth 11% (IATA)
Middle East air boom will play a pivotal role CATEGORY DEVELOPMENTS
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Egypt 2010 Egypt 2015 KSA 2010 KSA 2015 UAE 2010 UAE 2015
Pa
sse
ng
ers
, m
illi
on
Airline Capacity and Passengers Carried by Middle East Countries 2010/2015
PassengerscarriedExtra capacity
Source: Euromonitor International
© Euromonitor International
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30%
4%
12%6%12%
36%
34%
4%
12%6%
12%
32% 38%
4%12%
6%
11%
29%
Hotel Outlets by Region % Share2005/2010/2015
Asia Pacific Australasia
Eastern Europe Latin America
Middle East and Africa North America
Western Europe
Emerging markets lead hotel pipeline developmentCATEGORY DEVELOPMENTS
1,290 hotels, 310,000 rooms in the pipeline (STR)
Accor opened 50+ hotels in Asia 2011
IHG 150+ properties in China, 150 more
Note: outer circle represents 2015
Asia
© Euromonitor International
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0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Latin America Asia Pacific Eastern Europe Middle East Africa
% v
alu
e C
AG
R 2
010
-15
Emerging Regions Online Sales by Category% CAGR Growth 2010-2015
Air
Hotel
Travel Retail
Online and mobile drive travel salesCATEGORY DEVELOPMENTS
Emerging markets 4.3bn mobile subscribers vs developed 1.2bn Boom in online travel retail, China and India 16% and 18% CAGR 2010-2015
Source: Euromonitor International
© Euromonitor International
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OPPORTUNITIES
THREATS
Engine for growth
Smaller share of global consumption growth than of GDP growth
853m middle class households by 2015
Driver of new outbound demand
400m emerging market departures by 2015
Increased connectivity and new LCCs
Greater segmentation and choice
Faltering global economy
Risk of oversupply
Impact on Hotels
Europe and US risk tipping world back into recession
Reduced bailout capabilities, including China
Stagnation of key international source markets
Excess supply is a threat to profitability
EMERGING OUTBOUND MARKETS