Post on 11-Jan-2016
description
Uni
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Colloque franco-japonais 17-18 Octobre 2013
Development of end-to-end models to describe the dynamics of exploited marine ecosystems in the Eastern Channel
- Loïc Baulier- Raphaël Girardin- Olivier Le Pape (Agropcampus-Ouest)- Martin Huret- Morgane Travers-Trolet- Sandrine Vaz- Paul Marchal
Uni
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Colloque franco-japonais 17-18 Octobre 2013
Outline
∎ From data collection to mapping information layers and spatial analyses (since 2003)
∎ From spatial analyses to ecosystem modeling (since 2011)
∎ From conceptual modelling to ecosystem-based advice-giving (prospect)
Uni
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MN From data collection to spatial analyses: Habitat models
Colloque franco-japonais, 17-18 octobre 2013
Uni
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MN From data collection to spatial analyses: Habitat models
Colloque franco-japonais, 17-18 octobre 2013
Sensitivity of model parameters
Distribution of residuals
Model uncertainty
Différent statistical modelsJuveniles
Adults
KRIGING GLM GAM RQ
Interpolated and estimated distribution of whiting habitat
Caractérisation environnementale des frayères de la morue
Modelling essential habitats
Uni
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From data collection to spatial analyses: Trophic networksColloque franco-japonais, 17-18 octobre 2013
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MN From data collection to spatial analyses: Larvae trajectories
Uni
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Colloque franco-japonais, 17-18 octobre 2013
From data collection to spatial analyses: Fleet dynamics Fishers’ behaviour is mainly driven by past activities but also…
Other fleets distribution:
Other maritime activities and spatial management:
Ability to forecast the future: forecast 2009 behaviour
12NM TRAFIC
Passive
gears 10-12m
Passive gears <10m
Uni
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From spatial analyses to ecosystem modelling: OSMOSE
OSMOSE MODEL
Spatial multi-species individual-based model (IBM)
• Full life cycle • Individual variability
• Main processes: growth, predation, migration, reproduction, mortalities
(natural, by predation, due to fishing,)
Size-structured model based on opportunistic predation
• Based on spatio-temporal co-occurrence & size adequacy between prey and
predator • Allows emergence of local trophic
interactions and dynamic food web structure
Grid 6’ x 6’Time step : 15 days
14 species
Uni
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From spatial analyses to ecosystem modelling: OSMOSE
OSMOSE MODEL
Coupled to a Bio-physical model
• Dynamics of plankton groups forced by physics (current, T°, light, salinity…)
• Coupling through the predation process: plankton as prey field for small fish
ECO-MARS 3D MODEL
Cumulative annual production of diatoms
(gC.m-2.an-1) in 2003
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From spatial analyses to ecosystem modelling: OSMOSE
OSMOSE MODELECO-MARS 3D MODEL
BENTHIC PREY FIELDS
Ophiothrix fragilis
Uni
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Colloque franco-japonais, 17-18 octobre 2013
From spatial analyses to ecosystem modelling: ATLANTIS
0 2
3
37
1
414
15
1622
8
32
27
18
23
2928
733
31
20
65
19
12
30
13
26
24
21
25119
17
36
3410
35
Uni
té H
alie
utiq
ue M
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e-M
er d
u N
ord,
HM
MN
Colloque franco-japonais, 17-18 octobre 2013
From ecosystem modelling to ecosystem-based advice
Uni
té H
alie
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anch
e-M
er d
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ord,
HM
MN
Colloque franco-japonais, 17-18 octobre 2013
From ecosystem modelling to ecosystem-based advice
∎ Testing the sensitivity of complex ecosystem models using advanced methods
∎ Testing various scenarios considered using OSMOSE & ATLANTIS
A2 National Enterprise B1 Global Community
Fuel price 2050 214% of 2010
176% of 2010
Fish price 2050 135% of 2010 116% of 2010
MPAs Fishing limited Fishing banned
Relative stability strict loose
Shipping 2050 150% of 2010 250% of 2010
Wind energy Some plans realised All plans realised
Aggregate extraction Some plans realised All plans realised