Post on 08-Jan-2017
PowerPoint Presentation
Koichi Wakata NASA February 2014Living in the Anthropocene: Science, Sustainability and Society
Colorado Global Hub Director
Research Professor, Sustainability Innovation Lab of Colorado at CUSenior Scholar, School of Global Environmental Sustainability at CSU
Josh Tewksbury @tewksjj
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Levers for Transformation
CHANGE VISION / MINDSET
CHANGE MECHANISMS
CHANGE GOALS
Adapted after Meadows 1999CHANGE INFORMATION FLOWS
Josh Tewksbury @tewksjj
Change Information FlowsData: ITU Measuring the Information Society (2014)Pic credit: Paul Butler, visualizing friendship
3 billion internet users (44% of world households)7 billion mobile phone subscriptionsFacebook +1 billion users26 billion connected devices in 2020
Here is the potential for CHANGE INFORMATION
Pic credit: Paul Butler, visualizing friendship and the Economist.The digital divide is very apparent. But that is changing fast
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Change Goals: a big year
Human-induced climate change is a scientific reality, and its effective control is a moral imperative for humanity.
SDGs
What should science look like in the Anthropocene?Change Mechanisms?
I love this image would like to replace text with a few KEY milestones represnting the change GOALS
finance conference, sdgs and cop21 in 2015, unprecedented
- SDGs- Encyclical- COP 21 - OR, do those on separate slides, as below
Research focused onSystems and Organisms
I know these next slides well
But there has never been a better time to doing this work. More and more sectors of society are now paying attention.
Whether our research is focused on energy, Disease, or food and water security, As individuals and institutions, we are being asked to build scenarios and predictions linking our actions to their ecological and economic consequences. But it is even more than this, really. More generally, in this time of accelerating global change, society is fundamentally asking for a brand of action-oriented, use inspired research that is more effective, more predictive, more responsive to the needs of society than it ever has been before.
The challenge is to move from organisms and landscapes like these
CLICK
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But along with this new found relevance comes questions: How do we do our work? Is our field cohesive, inclusive, representative, nimble enough? Do we play well with other disciplines, can we integrate across scales? Is our work accessible to the public? In addition, how good are our incentive structures? What parts of society should we be interacting with? How well do we communicate our findings? Where is our data?
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Lu et al. 2009Diuk-Wasser 2012Ciais et al. 2005 NPPsummer NPPIPPC 2007Research making predictions
To models like these, Whether we are moving from the study of Lymes disease to models of prevalence, or the study of interactions on crops to predicting changes in yield, our capacity to model the complexities of ecological systems is now greater than ever before. But our models are only as good as the evidence we build into those models. We are increasingly being asked to predict how the world will actually look. To do this, our models have to embrace the complexity of ecology, and complex predictive models are hungry for data, for details. In ecology, these details are natural history. And this requires us to work together more than ever. This is not an easy task, but it is still only half the task we face. The other half, is how we move from models like these to changes in policies, practices and behaviors.
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European Agricultural Fund for Rural Development
Solution-focused research conducted with Societal Partners
We need to get these results and implications to decision-makers in private and public sectors in a form they can digest, at the time when they need it.
and you are saying Seriously? I am still trying to figure our Tick behavior Fair point.
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Sources: OECD Stat
And we are not going to get this done on our own
So here is the world 7.3 billion peopleCLICK: and here is us. Ecologists. perhaps 30,000 globally. Less than 1% of academics or scientists.CLICK: We are mostly academic (about 70% of ESA are academics) and with about we are about 0.5% of the academics in the world which number roughly 1.5 million in the US, perhaps 6 or 7 million in the world. CLICK And we are, more or less, all Scientists. So we are a small part of a relatively big academic ecosystem. 9
BrazilChinaEgyptIndiaSouth KoreaUSA*0 20 40 60 80 100
AcademiaBusinessCivil ServiceDiplomacy
EconomicsEngineeringLawMedicineMilitaryTeachingOthersPoliticians by tribeThese are not scientists
Sources: Economist, International Whos Who, Congressional Research Service
But put in perspective, and thinkign about this social contract to influence society, the route is not a clear one. Because our job. CLICK is to influence theese guys, and the people like them. And while our president does seem generally happy to be holding Tonys Koala here, CLICK these guys are not ecologists. And in fact, very few academics or scientists get anywhere near the national decision-making space. CLICK Here is a sampleYellow is the academics holding political office in a sample of countries It varis a lot, but look at the US Let me make this more clearCLICKIn the senate, - no scientists. No academics. in the house, there are 3 two physicists, and a microbiologist, and 6 engineers. In the US congress as a whole all in the house. more people stopped education at high-school than have a PHD. 10
Research FundingSocietal Benefits
ProblemResearchKnowledgeTransfer
AcademiaConsultants and TranslatorsPolicy and Business sectorsKnowledge Transfer The pipeline modelAdaptationDiffusion
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How does the science get used?Where does the evidence for action come from?
9 report series316 reports44,038 citations
If we remove the IUCN Env. Law series, which sits in a slightly different culture, our average goes up to 25%.Collected Governance data on hundreds of MPAs and Ecological data from over 14,000 surveys across 250 MPAs in 45 CountiesWhen you do the overlap, there are fewer than 100 MPAs where both data are found. But this is the BIGGEST dataset ever collected on the effectiveness of a primary conservation program12
Source: Guizar, Brooks and Tewksbury - unpublished
Avg. % of citations from peer reviewed sources19-2560
40
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0Percent of citations from peer reviewed literatureTNC Ecoregional AssessmentsIUCN Ecosystem ManageIUCNEnviron.Law
IUCN / WCPAProtect. Area BestPracticesWWF Living Planet ReportIUCN Species Survival CommissionUNEP Year BookStateof the Worlds BirdsAdvances in Applied Biodiversity Sciencen=336111442376106
An alternative evidence ecosystem?Majority of evidence is not from the peer reviewed literature
If we remove the IUCN Env. Law series, which sits in a slightly different culture, our average goes up to 25%.So what are we doing here? Why is virtually all of our training, our effort, spent in an endevor that has a minority impact on decision-making?13
Source: Guizar, Brooks and Tewksbury - unpublished
Number of Journals75
50
25
00 500 1000 1500
Number of Citations324 most cited journals in 316 reports; 8327 citations
Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics
Ecology
Animal Science and Zoology
Nature and Landscape ConservationManagement, Monitoring, Policy and LawAquatic ScienceAgricultural and Biological science
General Science
Citations from ecology subject areas vs. citations from all social science subject areas combined10 to 1
Which fields inform conservation?Ecology, and more Ecology.
When you apportion the citations to each journal according to the journal subject areas based on CROSSREF and sum these numbers, Ecology, and fields related to Ecology, are absolutely dominant, with 10 times the citations of Ecology journals than there are citations to all the social sciences combined.14
Societal BenefitsScienceSociety / StakeholdersPolicy
EngagementThe engagement model
Might shift to Gilberto's diagram15
Photo: Fruit Bat in Melbourne Monica Johansen
Earth SciencesNatural SciencesSocial SciencesEconomics
Decision Makers Government Business Individuals
Science CapacityPolicy / Practice CapacityEvidenceDirection and FocusBoundary Organizations Dual AccountabilityBegins with User NeedsKnowledge Co-Production2-way Information FlowPhoto: Fruit Bat in Melbourne Monica Johansen
And we are not going to get this done on our own
So here is the world 7.3 billion peopleCLICK: and here is us. Ecologists. perhaps 30,000 globally. Less than 1% of academics or scientists.CLICK: We are mostly academic (about 70% of ESA are academics) and with about we are about 0.5% of the academics in the world which number roughly 1.5 million in the US, perhaps 6 or 7 million in the world. CLICK And we are, more or less, all Scientists. So we are a small part of a relatively big academic ecosystem. 16
The history of international global change research programs
Future Earth is the evolution of the 30 year global change programgenerate high-quality global sustainability science that is relevant to societies, connect research communities across disciplines and geographies, and drive a step change in how international science engages with societal partners and stakeholders
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WMO
Science and Technology Alliance for Global Sustainability
(observer)
Brief outline of who is behind FE18
What Future Earth Looks like today. I will go through these points in detail19
Secretariat FunctionsResearch EnablingCapacity BuildingCommunication and EngagementSynthesis and ForesightCoordination
8 min to here TALK ABOUT STRUCTURE SEC, REGIONAL, AND NATIONAL. USGCRP funds are leveraged by funds around the world to build an international staff focused on facilitating this step changeCRITICAL THAT WE ESTABLISH ROBUST, REPRESENTATIVE NATIONAL STRUCTURES
Talk about Staff structure.
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BioGenesisBioDiscoveryiHOPEAir chemistryLand-air(iLEAPS)Coasts EcoHealthMarine (IMBER)Mountain biodiversity Climate change and food securityGlobal Land ProjectMonsoon Asia (MAIRS)Earth system govern-ance Global Carbon ProjectEcoServicesCities (UGEC)Global Water SystemsSurface ocean (SOLAS)WCRPIGBPDiversitasIHDPCGIARICSUESSP
Earth System Modeling (AIMES)Past change(PAGES)
Eco-system Change & Society
Risk (IRG)
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Research program
Knowledge-Action NetworksAn open inclusive network for sustainability science connecting communities across geographies, disciplines, and sectors of society and catalyzing co-designed science and engagement.
Core projects+: over 20 established international communities
Structured networks catalyzing new research and deep engagement with society around sustainability challenges
Community
And though it is necessarily a complex beast, with global, regional and national aspects, on the research side we can now feel that we have clarity on the key and quite simple elements of Future Earths programme.
- The Open Network, including critically the 22+ communities that have now transitioned, from CPs, as well as the partner programmes CCAFS and PECS- The developing KANs, that well speak much more of- And what we mean to be the nimble innovation element of FTIs.
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Sources: Photo: Fishing in the Mekong Tan Someth Bunwath / WWF-Cambodia
Knowledge Action Networks
Cities
Health
Consumption & production
Water, energy, food nexus
Climate change: decarbonization and adaptation
Natural assets
Emergent risksFinance & Economics
TransformationsOceans
SDGs
27.5 at end
1. Deliver water, energy, and food for all, and manage the synergies and trade-offsamong them, by understanding how these interactions are shaped byenvironmental, economic, social and political changes.2. Decarbonise socio-economic systems to stabilise the climate by promotingthetechnological, economic, social, political and behavioural changes enablingtransformations, while building knowledge about the impacts of climate change andadaptation responses for people and ecosystems.3. Safeguard the terrestrial, freshwater and marine natural assets underpinninghuman well-being by understanding relationships between biodiversity,ecosystem functioning and services, and developing effective valuation and governanceapproaches.4. Build healthy, resilient and productive cities by identifying and shapinginnovations that combine better urban environments and lives with decliningresource footprints, and provide efficient services and infrastructures that arerobust to disasters.5. Promote sustainable rural futures to feed rising and more affluent populationsamidst changes in biodiversity, resources and climate by analysing alternativeland uses, food systems and ecosystem options, and identifying institutional andgovernance needs.6. Improve human health by elucidating, and finding responses to, the complexinteractions amongst environmental change, pollution,pathogens, diseasevectors, ecosystem services, and peoples livelihoods,nutrition and well-being.7. Encourage sustainable consumption and production patterns that are equitableby understanding the social and environmental impacts of consumption ofall resources, opportunities for decoupling resource use from growth in well-being,and options for sustainable development pathways and related changes in humanbehaviour.8. Increase social resilience to future threats by building adaptive governancesystems, developing early warning of global and connected thresholds and risks,and testing effective, accountable and23
Co-design from a global boundary organization
Co-designing transdisciplinary research calls
Catalyzing new research and synthesis
Supporting global capacity for co-designed science
Developing narratives and media to strengthen communication
Building tools and resources for sustainability science and action
Convening experts to support science / policy processes
CommunicationPhoto: Fruit Bat in Melbourne Monica Johansen
Communications25
Communication
International Media and Policy SupportPhoto: Fruit Bat in Melbourne Monica Johansen
Push Anthropocene Mag here US policy issues and from US26
CommunicationInternational Media and Policy SupportPhoto: Fruit Bat in Melbourne Monica Johansen
Push Anthropocene Mag here US policy issues and from US27
Communication
Photo: Fruit Bat in Melbourne Monica JohansenInnovation at the interface between science and society
ANTHROPOCENE MAGAZINERESILIENCE DEEPLYSCIENCE BRIEFQUANTIFIED PLANETHABITAT IIIANTHROPOCENE.INFO
Media Lab28
a digital, print, and live magazine in which the worlds most creative writers, designers, scientists, and entrepreneurs explore how we can create a sustainable human age we actually want to live in.Photo: Fruit Bat in Melbourne Monica Johansen
Anthropocene Mag
Photo: Fruit Bat in Melbourne Monica Johansen
ChallengesFood, Water, Energy, Cities, Consumption & Production, Climate, Sustainable Use and Protection of Aquatic and Terrestrial EcosystemsServiceScience, Collaboration, Communication, Innovation, Education, EngagementSolutionsHealthy landscapes, freshwater systems and oceans; clean air; just, equitable societies; livable cities; healthy people
Science as Service
Trans-disciplinaryUser-focusedCo-createdSolution orientedScalable and transportable
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Major support for the Colorado Global Hub of Future EarthSupport for Anthropocene Magazine
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