Post on 21-Aug-2018
LIGHTCOUNTING Market Research on High-Speed Interconnects Datacom, Telecom, CATV, FTTX, Consumer markets © Copyright 2011 LightCounting LLC All material proprietary and confidential.
Your Connection to Market Intelligence
3/22/2013 1
LIGHTCOUNTING
LIGHTCOUNTING Market Research on High-Speed Interconnects Datacom, Telecom, CATV, FTTX, Consumer markets © Copyright 2011 LightCounting LLC All material proprietary and confidential.
Forecast Methodology: Part 1
3/22/2013 2
Fall in Seattle
Winter – see fall
Spring – see winter
2 seconds later
LIGHTCOUNTING Market Research on High-Speed Interconnects Datacom, Telecom, CATV, FTTX, Consumer markets © Copyright 2011 LightCounting LLC All material proprietary and confidential.
Telecom Seasons
3/22/2013 3
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Internet traffic growth DWDM network bandwidth growth
LIGHTCOUNTING Market Research on High-Speed Interconnects Datacom, Telecom, CATV, FTTX, Consumer markets © Copyright 2011 LightCounting LLC All material proprietary and confidential.
Forecast Methodology: Part 2
3/22/2013 4
Temperature data Radar data Barometer data Seasons Climate change
Historical records Modeling Validation
Market Survey data Financial reports Economic cycles New technologies New applications
Historical records Modeling Validation
LIGHTCOUNTING Market Research on High-Speed Interconnects Datacom, Telecom, CATV, FTTX, Consumer markets © Copyright 2011 LightCounting LLC All material proprietary and confidential.
Forecasts that sell newspapers
3/22/2013 5
All-Optical Networking will change the world Raman amplifiers will replace EDFAs SONET is dead, 40G is dead, Fibre Channel is dead Silicon Photonics and/or InP integrated circuits will change the world
LIGHTCOUNTING Market Research on High-Speed Interconnects Datacom, Telecom, CATV, FTTX, Consumer markets © Copyright 2011 LightCounting LLC All material proprietary and confidential.
Scaling Growth of Network Bandwidth
3/22/2013 6
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Internet traffic growth DWDM network bandwidth growth
-
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
2009 2010 2011 2012
Re
lati
ve B
and
wid
th
(no
rmal
ize
d u
nit
s)
10 Gbps
40 Gbps
100Gbps
Annual growth in network bandwidth = Number of Ports shipped per year x Data Rate
LIGHTCOUNTING Market Research on High-Speed Interconnects Datacom, Telecom, CATV, FTTX, Consumer markets © Copyright 2011 LightCounting LLC All material proprietary and confidential.
CapEx of top 15 service providers
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$140,000
$145,000
$150,000
$155,000
$160,000
$165,000
$170,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Tota
l Cap
Ex (
$M
)
$0
$20,000
$40,000
$60,000
$80,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Cap
Ex (
$M
)
Asia
Europe
US
• Service providers were able “to use CapEx more efficiently in 2012” (purchase more equipment with less money).
• In the end of 2012, AT&T and Deutsche Telecom disclosed plans for boosting annual CapEx by 10-15% in 2013-2015 and it is very likely that their competitors will have to increase infrastructure investments as well.
LIGHTCOUNTING Market Research on High-Speed Interconnects Datacom, Telecom, CATV, FTTX, Consumer markets © Copyright 2011 LightCounting LLC All material proprietary and confidential.
Revenue and profits of telecom equipment vendors
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Companies 2008 2009 2010 2011
Content Providers 12% 16% 16% 14%
Service Providers 6% 10% 12% 8%
System Vendors 5% 5% 8% 6%
IC Vendors 10% 9% 22% 20%
OC and Module Vendors 2% (4%) 3% (1%)
Net Margin Across the supply chain (GAAP)
$0
$25
$50
$75
$100
2009 2010 2011 2012
Equ
ipm
en
t R
eve
nu
e (
$B
) Ciena (Product revenue)
ZTE (Network revenues)
Fujitsu (System + Network revenue)
Alcatel Lucent (total less software,services)
Ericsson (Networks revenue)
NSN (all revenues)
Huawei (Carrier + Enterprise revenue)
LIGHTCOUNTING Market Research on High-Speed Interconnects Datacom, Telecom, CATV, FTTX, Consumer markets © Copyright 2011 LightCounting LLC All material proprietary and confidential.
Revenue of component vendors
3/22/2013 9
$-
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
Qu
arte
rly
Rev
en
ue
s ($
M)
Opnext
Oplink
Oclaro
NeoPhotonics
JDSU
Finisar
Emcore
Avago
$-
$200
$400
$600
$800
Q1
201
1
Q2
201
1
Q3
201
1
Q4
201
1
Q1
201
2
Q2
201
2
Q3
201
2 E
Q4
201
2 E
Sa
les (
$M
)
Global Optical Transceiver Market
• Strong demand for datacom products benefits Avago, Finisar and other vendors
• NeoPhotonics reported increasing sales of high end products
• Emcore is ramping up tunable laser sales
• Gigalight reported 20% increase in 2012 sales
• Genuine Opto, HiSense, WTD and many other vendors in China reported higher sales in 2012
LIGHTCOUNTING Market Research on High-Speed Interconnects Datacom, Telecom, CATV, FTTX, Consumer markets © Copyright 2011 LightCounting LLC All material proprietary and confidential.
“Iron curtains” in Cyber Space?
3/22/2013 10
Will this help to moderate competition in the global optical communication market?
LIGHTCOUNTING Market Research on High-Speed Interconnects Datacom, Telecom, CATV, FTTX, Consumer markets © Copyright 2011 LightCounting LLC All material proprietary and confidential.
Market is highly non-linear to fluctuations in demand
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0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Internet traffic growth DWDM network bandwidth growth
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
Mar
ket
Gro
wth
Rat
e
Internet Traffic Growth Rate
Small changes in demand may lead to sharp increases in sales
Shortage of components is great for profitability of suppliers
LIGHTCOUNTING Market Research on High-Speed Interconnects Datacom, Telecom, CATV, FTTX, Consumer markets © Copyright 2011 LightCounting LLC All material proprietary and confidential.
DWDM port shipments
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-
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Rel
ativ
e B
and
wid
th (
no
rmal
ized
un
its)
10 Gbps
40 Gbps
100 Gbps
Number of DWDM ports * data rate
How will this growth translate into revenue?
This data is available in LightCounting Forecast Report: http://www.lightcounting.com/Forecast.cfm
LIGHTCOUNTING Market Research on High-Speed Interconnects Datacom, Telecom, CATV, FTTX, Consumer markets © Copyright 2011 LightCounting LLC All material proprietary and confidential.
Telecom Transceiver Market
3/22/2013 13
$-
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Sale
s ($
M)
SONET/SDH CWDM / DWDM FTTx Wireless Infrastructure
This data is available in LightCounting Forecast Report: http://www.lightcounting.com/Forecast.cfm
LIGHTCOUNTING Market Research on High-Speed Interconnects Datacom, Telecom, CATV, FTTX, Consumer markets © Copyright 2011 LightCounting LLC All material proprietary and confidential.
Datacom Transceiver Market
3/22/2013 14
$-
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Sale
s ($
M)
Ethernet Fibre Channel Optical Interconnects
This data is available in LightCounting Forecast Report: http://www.lightcounting.com/Forecast.cfm
LIGHTCOUNTING Market Research on High-Speed Interconnects Datacom, Telecom, CATV, FTTX, Consumer markets © Copyright 2011 LightCounting LLC All material proprietary and confidential.
10 GigE shipments will continue to ramp
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-
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
14,000,000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Un
its
1 Gbps
10 Gbps
40 GigE
100 GigE
This data is available in LightCounting Report on 40G and 100G Data Center Interconnects:
http://www.lightcounting.com/DataCenter.cfm
LIGHTCOUNTING Market Research on High-Speed Interconnects Datacom, Telecom, CATV, FTTX, Consumer markets © Copyright 2011 LightCounting LLC All material proprietary and confidential.
10 GigE ports: optical and copper
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-
10,000,000
20,000,000
30,000,000
40,000,000
50,000,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
copper optical
LIGHTCOUNTING Market Research on High-Speed Interconnects Datacom, Telecom, CATV, FTTX, Consumer markets © Copyright 2011 LightCounting LLC All material proprietary and confidential.
Growth in Data Center Bandwidth
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0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Internet traffic growth Ethernet optical Ethernet optical and copper
LIGHTCOUNTING Market Research on High-Speed Interconnects Datacom, Telecom, CATV, FTTX, Consumer markets © Copyright 2011 LightCounting LLC All material proprietary and confidential.
Data Centers become more efficient
• Mega-data centers replace many small and mid-size data centers and improve utilization efficiency of storage and networking equipment.
• Server virtualization and software defined networking also lead to more efficient utilization of equipment and interconnect bandwidth. – “Expedient Communications, a cloud service provider that deployed
10-GbE switches on its E5-powered cloud offering. Expedient reported a 23% reduction in the number of switch ports and cables needed on its network, a 14% reduction in infrastructure costs and a 150% increase in server bandwidth”
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LIGHTCOUNTING Market Research on High-Speed Interconnects Datacom, Telecom, CATV, FTTX, Consumer markets © Copyright 2011 LightCounting LLC All material proprietary and confidential.
Upcoming Reports
• 40G and 100G Datacenter Interconnects (March 2013): – http://www.lightcounting.com/DataCenter.cfm
• Market Update Report and Quarterly Sales (March 2013): – http://www.lightcounting.com/marketupdate.cfm
• State of the Industry Report (May 2013): – http://www.lightcounting.com/2012_SOTIR.cfm
• AOCs, EOMs and Si-Photonics (May 2013) – http://www.lightcounting.com/activeoptical_2012.cfm
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LIGHTCOUNTING Market Research on High-Speed Interconnects Datacom, Telecom, CATV, FTTX, Consumer markets © Copyright 2011 LightCounting LLC All material proprietary and confidential.
Long term view
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$-
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Sale
s ($
M)
• The market will remain cyclical • Many new technologies will find a place in the market, but their impact may
be overestimated