Post on 08-Apr-2018
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February 2010
Confidential
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Methodology Political Landscape
Leadership Races
Threats to the BC Liberal Coalition
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511 voters in British Columbia were surveyed
between February 15
th
and 16
th
, 2010. This gives a margin of error of +/- 4.3%,nineteen times out of twenty.
Results were weighted according to age andgender by region from the most recent census
data and by past voting behaviour. Survey was conducted online using LegerMarketings LegerWeb.com panel.
Region Sample Size* Margin of ErrorVancouver and Metro North 165 +/- 7.6%
Valley and Metro South 140 +/- 8.3%
Interior and North 93 +/- 10.2%
Vancouver Island 113 +/- 9.2%*these sample sizes are the raw number of interviews conducted in each region, for the final analysisthe regions were weighted to represent their actual proportion of voters
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Parties deadlocked until newleaders are elected
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The NDP have a small lead within the margin oferror.
Essentially the political system in BC is on holduntil both the BC Liberals and BC NDP elect new
leaders. Despite Campbells resignation the BC Liberals
have lost ground on the right to the BCConservatives, who are consistently in the 5%range.
The NDP leads in all areas of the province. The province is split by gender with the NDP
much more popular with women and the BCLiberals far ahead with men.
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2% 2%5% 2%
15%
8%
41%
42%
37%46%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
February 2011 2009 Election
BC LiberalsBC NDP
Green Party
BC Conservatives
Others
To avoid confusion with the Conservative Party of Canada voters were not prompted with the option ofthe BC Conservatives, only after they chose Other Party were they given the choices of BC Conservative
Party, Independent candidate or the Libertarian Party.
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2% 1% 3% 3% 1%5% 6% 4%
10%
2%
15% 18% 18%16%
10%
41%47%
33%
38%
46%
37%29%
42%33%
41%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
All BC Vancouver
Island
Interior - North Valley - Metro
South
Vancouver -
Metro North
BC LiberalsBC NDP
Green Party
BC Conservatives
Others
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2% 4% 0%5%
5%5%
15% 16%14%
41% 31%50%
37%44%
30%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
All Voters Men Women
BC LiberalsBC NDP
Green Party
BC Conservatives
Others
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Christy Clark turns off a largesegment of the BC Liberalbase
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Fully one quarter of BC Liberal voters say that ChristyClark as leader would make them lesslikely to voteBC Liberal. This number is higher amongst women. Abbott and Falcon tie with only about 8.5% choosing each
of them.
Clarks election as leader would cause a significantportion of the electorate and BC Liberal base toconsider the BC Conservatives. This sentiment is strongest in the Valley & Metro South
region.
Clarks proximity to Ignatieffs federal Liberals ismore of an issue for BC Liberal voters than Falconsproximity to Harpers federal Conservatives. However, NDP voters are more likely to be concerned with
Falcons federal ties.
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25%
22%
28%
8%10%
6%
9%7%
10%
5%4%
7%
9% 8%9%
7%
10%
2%
All BC Liberal Voters Men Women
Christy Clark Kevin Falcon George Abbott Mike De Jong Moira Stillwell Ed Mayne
Respondents were also offered the choice of None of them which was chosen by 38%.
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23%
29%
20%
31%
35%
35%
21%
22%
18%
12%
10%
12%
All Voters BC Liberals BC NDP
Not worried at all Not very worried Moderately worried Very worried
22%
38%
13%
29%
34%
23%
22%
16%
29%
13%
8%
23%
All Voters BC Liberals BC NDP
Some people say that Christy Clark is too close MichaelIgnatieffsfederalLiberals, while others say that Kevin Falcon is too close to Stephen Harpers
federal Conservatives.
How worried are you about Christy Clark beingtoo close to Michael Ignatieffs federal Liberals? How worried are you about Kevin Falcon being tooclose to Stephen Harpers federal Conservatives?
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45% 42%
19% 25%
11%15%
8%6%
All Voters BC LiberalsI would not consider voting for the BC Conservative Party
I would slightly consider voting for the BC Conservative Party
I would strongly consider voting for the BC Conservative Party
I would certainly vote for the BC Conservative Party
Represents 7.7% of voters BC
Liberals cannot win without them
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45% 42% 43% 40%
57%
19% 22%
13%
28%
13%
11% 13%
16%
5%10%
8% 7%9% 10%
7%
All Voters Vancouver - Metro
North
Valley - Metro South Interior - North Vancouver Island
I would not consider voting for the BC Conservative Party
I would slightly consider voting for the BC Conservative Party
I would strongly consider voting for the BC Conservative Party
I would certainly vote for the BC Conservative Party
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The BC Liberals face a significant threat from the
right if Christy Clark is elected leader. The current political situation in BC gives neither
party an advantage but the choice of leader willhave a significant impact.
25% of BC Liberal voters say that Christy Clark is thecandidate who makes them less likely to vote BCLiberal in the next election. This is more significant among women, who an already
dangerously alienated part of the BC Liberal voter base.
21% of BC Liberal voters would vote or stronglyconsider voting for the BC Conservatives if Clark
becomes leader. 32% of BC Liberal voters are very or moderately
worried by Clarks ties to the federal Liberals,compared to 24% who are very or morderatelyworried by Falcons ties to the federal Conservatives.