Five Myths About the Indian Voter

Milan Vaishnav | March 10, 2014

Five myths?

1. Good economics ≠ good politics2. Regionalism is surging3. Lack of information breeds corruption4. Vote your caste, not cast your vote5. Voters are fed up with dynasties

1. Good economics ≠ good politics

“It’s the economy, stupid!”

A cautionary tale?

“India has not reached a stage where the people would prefer a CEO to a politician to run the government.”

-- K.C. Suri (2004)

Good economics ≠ good politics

Are things changing?

“Since independence, many Indian voters have reflexively ejected politicians from office even when they had compiled decent records in power…Recently, though, Indian voters have started to reward good performance, especially in state-level politics.”

- Arvind Subramanian (2009)

From ‘Jungle Raj’ to ‘Vikaas Raj’

2014 Election issues

Note: Lok Foundation survey (2013); n = 68,516

24.1

22.6

18.8

13.5

6.8

6.65.5

2.1Economic growth

Corruption

Inflation

Changes in personal fam-ily income

Law and order problems

Access to govt services

Strong leadership

Opportunity/respect for caste/religion

Good economics ≠ good politics

Wait a minute….

2. Regionalism is on the rise

Surge in political competition

Single-party majority Coalition govt

Rise of the regions: anarchy or strengthened federalism?

Relative stability in vote share

1. Do regional parties undermine national parties?

2. Who rules the regions?

3. The poster child for “hope”?

The “Nitish” effect

The “Akhilesh” effect

3. Who is transforming governance?

3. Lack of information breeds corruption

An Indian political success story

Anant Singh, three-time member of the Bihar state assembly from Mokama constituency and well-known strongman

Why are there criminals in politics?

The costs of democracy

From wealth to power

Why do party supply criminal candidates?

The merits of money & “muscle”

Criminality as credibility

Voter demand for criminal politicians

4. Vote your caste, not caste your vote

Degree of co-ethnic voting

Coethnic Group co-ethnic0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

14.1%

39.2%

85.9%

60.8%

YesNo

Note: N = 2,045

“Rainbow coalitions” (Bihar 2010)

Social group % vote for NDA

Brahmin 64Bhumihar 48Rajput 68Other Upper Caste 89Yadav 18Kurmi-Koeri 70Other OBC 63Chamars 41Pasi 25Other SC 52Muslim 27Others 47

Source: CSDS (2010)

Upper Caste

OBC

SC

Minorities

Can voters ethnically identify candidates?

Note: Identification is considered accurate if voters identify the correct jati of the candidate. N = 2,045

Misidentified Correctly Identified0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

29.2%

70.8%

Can politicians predict the vote?

Vote intention 2008 vote0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

35.5% 34.5%

64.5% 65.5%

Incorrect guessCorrect guess

Source: Mark Schneider (2014)

Can politicians learn how you voted?

No/rarely Most of the time Always No opinion0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

76.9%

10.2%4.6%

8.4%

Note: N = 2,045

5. Voters are fed up with dynasties

Nehru-Gandhi Inc.

The DMK family tree

“Princelings” in parliament

RLD NCPBJD INC

BSPDMK SP

CPI(M)

JD(U

)BJP

AITC

Shiv

Sena

AIADMKTDP

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100% 100%

78%

43%38%

33% 33%27% 25%

20% 19%16%

9%

0% 0%

Source: Patrick French

Dynasticism among MPs

20%

80%

2004

Dynastic tiesNo dy-nastic ties

29%

71%

2009

Dynastic tiesNo dy-nastic ties

Source: Kanchan Chandra and Anjali Thomas Bohlken

Hereditary MPs (by age)

<30 31-40 41-50 51-60 61-70 71-80 >810%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100% 100%

65%

37%

21%16%

11%

0%

Source: Patrick French

Dynastic preference?

No Yes0

10

20

30

40

50

6051.4

48.6

% p

refe

r to

vote

for d

ynas

tic c

andi

date

Source: Lok Foundation survey. N = 55,538

Why voters like dynasties

Reason Percent

Better at doing politics because it is their occupation

44.6%

Likely to succeed because of greater exposure to politics 41.4%

Makes it easier to deliver services 14.1%

Source: Lok Foundation survey. N = 26,992

And why they do not

Reason Percent

Prevent best candidates from standing for election 38.6%

Not representative of the common man 36.2%

Leads to corruption 25.3%

Source: Lok Foundation survey. N = 28,546

Wrapping up

• We know surprisingly little about what makes Indian voters tick– Much of what we thought we knew turns out to

be wrong (or at least more complicated!)

• New effort: “Lok Surveys”

• Good news: more data brought to bear than ever before for 2014 elections

Comments/questions?

mvaishnav@ceip.org

@MilanV