Post on 05-Dec-2014
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www.CharlestonCommercialMarketForecast.com
Commercial Real Estate Market Forecast
October 8, 2014 | Daniel Island Club
www.CharlestonCommercialMarketForecast.com
INFRASTRUCTURE POPULATION GROWTH GEOGRAPHIC BARRIERS PORT NEW CONSTRUCTION PALMETTO PARKWAY CORRIDOR SUBMARKETS INFRASTRUCTURE POPULATION GROWTH GEOGRAPHIC BARRIERS PORT NEW CONSTRUCTION PALMETTO PARKWAY CORRIDOR SUBMARKETS INFRASTRUCTURE POPULATION GROWTH GEOGRAPHIC BARRIERS PORT NEW CONSTRUCTION PALMETTO PARKWAY CORRIDOR SUBMARKETS INFRASTRUCTURE POPULATION GROWTH GEOGRAPHIC BARRIERS PORT NEW CONSTRUCTION PALMETTO PARKWAY CORRIDOR SUBMARKETS INFRASTRUCTURE POPULATION GROWTH GEOGRAPHIC BARRIERS PORT NEW CONSTRUCTION PALMETTO PARKWAY CORRIDOR SUBMARKETS INFRASTRUCTURE POPULATION GROWTH GEOGRAPHIC BARRIERS PORT NEW CONSTRUCTION PALMETTO PARKWAY CORRIDOR SUBMARKETS INFRASTRUCTURE POPULATION GROWTH GEOGRAPHIC BARRIERS PORT NEW CONSTRUCTION PALMETTO PARKWAY CORRIDOR SUBMARKETS INFRASTRUCTURE POPULATION GROWTH GEOGRAPHIC BARRIERS PORT NEW CONSTRUCTION PALMETTO PARKWAY CORRIDOR SUBMARKETS INFRASTRUCTURE POPULATION GROWTH GEOGRAPHIC BARRIERS PORT NEW CONSTRUCTION PALMETTO PARKWAY CORRIDOR SUBMARKETS INFRASTRUCTURE POPULATION GROWTH GEOGRAPHIC BARRIERS PORT NEW CONSTRUCTION PALMETTO PARKWAY CORRIDOR SUBMARKETS INFRASTRUCTURE POPULATION GROWTH GEOGRAPHIC BARRIERS PORT NEW CONSTRUCTION PALMETTO PARKWAY CORRIDOR SUBMARKETS INFRASTRUCTURE POPULATION GROWTH GEOGRAPHIC BARRIERS PORT NEW CONSTRUCTION PALMETTO PARKWAY CORRIDOR SUBMARKETS INFRASTRUCTURE POPULATION GROWTH GEOGRAPHIC BARRIERS PORT NEW CONSTRUCTION PALMETTO PARKWAY CORRIDOR SUBMARKETS INFRASTRUCTURE POPULATION GROWTH GEOGRAPHIC BARRIERS PORT NEW CONSTRUCTION PALMETTO PARKWAY CORRIDOR SUBMARKETS INFRASTRUCTURE POPULATION GROWTH GEOGRAPHIC BARRIERS PORT NEW CONSTRUCTION PALMETTO PARKWAY CORRIDOR SUBMARKETS INFRASTRUCTURE POPULATION GROWTH GEOGRAPHIC BARRIERS PORT NEW CONSTRUCTION PALMETTO PARKWAY CORRIDOR SUBMARKETS INFRASTRUCTURE POPULATION GROWTH GEOGRAPHIC BARRIERS
LANDREPORT
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Residential Land
Kevin WadleyVice President of Land AcquisitionAshton Woods
kwadley@ashtonwoodshomes.com www.ashtonwoodshomes.com
843.514.0561
www.CharlestonCommercialMarketForecast.com
Charleston is Winning!
#1 Top City in the U.S. and Canada Travel + Leisure 2014 World’s Best Awards
#1 Friendliest City in the United States Condé Nast Traveler 2014 Readers Choice Awards
#2 Top City in the World Travel + Leisure 2014 World’s Best Awards
America’s Most Attractive People Travel + Leisure Magazine
Source: Google
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Population
Source: Census, TAMU
+11% IN LAST 5 YEARS
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Annual Permits ( Single Family)
Source: Real Estate Information Service
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20140
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
PERMITS CONTINUE TO EXCEED CLOSINGS
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Annual New Home Closings
Source: Real Estate Information Service2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000 2014 LEVELS +50% 0VER 2011
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New Home Closings by Quarter
Q1 2011
Q2 2011
Q3 2011
Q4 2011
Q1 2012
Q2 2012
Q3 2012
Q4 2012
Q1 2013
Q2 2013
Q3 2013
Q4 2013
Q1 2014
Q2 2014
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
New Home Closings by Quarter+800 UNITS IN Q3 2014
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Homes Sales in the Tri-County
Source: CTARMLS
No. of Sales Ave. Sold Price Ave. Sold Price/SF
Jan-Aug 2013
Total 8725 $284,755 $133.65
New 1736 $288,679 $122.76
Resales 6989 $283,707 $136.36
Jan-Aug 2014
Total 9237 $301,935 $159.56
New 1872 $309,727 $221.59
Resales 7365 $299,784 $143.74
YOY Change in Total 5.9% 6.0% 19.4%
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Header
Source: Real Estate Information Service
Single Family98%
Multi-Family2%
New Home Construction Type
• Charleston is primarily a single family market
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Months’ Supply
Source: Real Estate Information Service
Feb-
11
Apr-1
1
Jun-
11
Aug-1
1
Oct-1
1
Dec-1
1
Feb-
12
Apr-1
2
Jun-
12
Aug-1
2
Oct-1
2
Dec-1
2
Feb-
13
Apr-1
3
Jun-
13
Aug-1
3
Oct-1
3
Dec-1
3
Feb-
140
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
Months Supply
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Submarkets
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Top Performing Communities
Source: Real Estate Information Service
Rank Subdivision Market Area ClosingsAverage
Price1 CANE BAY PLTN CARNES/CANE BAY 178 250,6932 CAROLINA BAY WEST ASHLEY 99 288,8443 CAROLINA PARK MT PLEASANT 51 496,7914 SOPHIA LANDING GOOSE CREEK 35 209,1465 DANIEL ISLAND DANIEL ISLAND 33 687,5456 THE PONDS KNIGHTSVILLE 33 338,7087 TANNER PLTN HANAHAN 32 328,2948 OAK TERRACE PRESERVE NORTH CHARLESTON 29 210,6199 SPRING GROVE PLTN GOOSE CREEK 27 190,340
10 BAKER PLTN LADSON/LINCOLNVILLE 25 183,52811 FOXBANK PLTN CARNES/CANE BAY 25 241,09112 DUNES WEST DUNES WEST 24 396,26813 LAKES OF SUMMERVILLE LADSON/LINCOLNVILLE 24 154,88914 SIX FIFTY SIX CONDOS MT PLEASANT 24 387,82515 WHITE GABLES KNIGHTSVILLE 23 222,99116 BOLTONS LANDING WEST ASHLEY 22 245,87117 FELDER CREEK CARNES/CANE BAY 21 196,25418 BROOKDALE NORTH CHARLESTON 20 196,37019 NELLIEFIELD PLTN NELLIEFIELD 20 257,88520 FENWICK HALL JOHNS ISLAND 19 187,573
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Source: Real Estate Information Service
Peninsula
N Charlesto
n
Ladso
n
West
Ashley
James Is
land
Mt Pleasa
nt
Johns Islan
d
Edist
o Islan
d
Awendaw/M
cClella
nville
Sanga
ree/S
ummerville
Moncks Corn
er
Goose Cre
ek
Hanah
an
Daniel Is
land
Ashley R
iver R
d
Dorcheste
r Rd
Summervi
lle
Knightsv
ille
Givhan
s0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
New Home Closings by Market Area
1/1/2013 - 6/30/2014
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Johns/Wadmalaw Island
Kiawah/seabrook
James Island
Edisto Island
Edisto Island
Ladson
West Ashley
Ashley River Road
Awendaw/McClellanville
N Charleston
Daniel Island
HanahanOakbrook
Mt Pleasant/Islands
Givhans
Knightsville
Summerville
Carnes/Cane Bay
Goose Creek
Peninsula
New Home PriceBy Market Area
2014Source: Real Estate Information Service
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New Home Average Price by Market Area
Source: Real Estate Information Service
Peninsula
N Charlesto
n
Ladso
n
West
Ashley
James Isla
nd
Mt Pleasa
nt
Johns I
sland
Edisto Is
land
Awendaw/McC
lellanville
Sangaree/Summerville
Moncks C
orner
Goose Creek
Hanahan
Daniel Island
Ashley River R
d
Dorcheste
r Rd
Summerville
Knightsville
Givhans$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
$400,000
$450,000
$500,000
2013 2014
Charleston Berkeley Dorchester
$313,146
$258,827$286,834
$267,791$255,036
$233,676
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New Construction Activity
Source: Real Estate Information Service
www.CharlestonCommercialMarketForecast.com
Source: Real Estate Information Service
06/11 12/11 06/12 12/12 6/13 12/13 6/140
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Single Family Lot Closings
Ber Chs Dor
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Mt Pleasant, Entitled Lots
Source: Valbridge
Average Land Purchase Price Ranges per entitled lot
2010 - 2012 $20,000 - $30,000 2013 $25,000 - $50,0002014 $45,000 - $80,000
• Over 200% increase in price range
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What’s next ?
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More builders and more
new homes!
www.CharlestonCommercialMarketForecast.com
Cane Bay Lakes – over 4,000 homesCarnes Crossroads – over 4,000 homesNexton – over 10,000 homesThe Ponds – over 1,500 Limehouse Vil lage- over 500 homesSummers Corner – approximated over 4,000 homes Grand Oaks – Grand Bees over 500 unitsFenwick Hil ls – over 150 unitsStono View – over 160 unitsMaybank Vil lage over 175 units
New Construction Planned to start 2014
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Challenges?
• Downward pricing pressure with increased supply of new homes.
• Builders sti ll have a shortage of supply in highly desirable areas, but inventories are larger in other areas.
• Expect entitlements to take longer.
• Infrastructure needs to catch up with some areas to support growth.