1

Bob Uhlenkott – Idaho Department of Labor EMSI National Conference

Coeur d‘Alene, Idaho – October 1, 2011

Labor Market Information Outlook

2

Bureau of Labor Statistics

Federal/State Cooperative Agreement Programs

• QCEW – Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages • CES – Current Employment Statistics • LAUS – Local Area Unemployment Statistics • OES – Occupational and Employment Statistics • MLS – Mass Layoff Statistics

The “REAL” or “TRUE” Rate of Unemployment!

Alternative Measures for Labor Underutilization

• U-1, persons unemployed 15 weeks or longer, as a percent of the civilian labor force;

• U-2, job losers and persons who completed temporary jobs, as a percent of the civilian labor force;

• U-3, total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force (this is the definition used for the official unemployment rate);

• U-4, total unemployed plus discouraged workers, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus discouraged workers;

• U-5, total unemployed, plus discouraged workers, plus all other marginally attached workers, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all marginally attached workers; and

• U-6, total unemployed, plus all marginally attached workers, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all marginally attached workers.

Unemployment Rates - 2010 Annual Averages

Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Idaho Department of Labor - March 2011

U-1 U-2 U-3 U-4 U-5 U-6

United States 5.7 6 9.6 10.3 11.1 16.7

California 7.6 7.9 12.2 13 14 22.1

Idaho 4.1 5.4 9 9.3 9.9 16.3

Montana 3.4 5 7.7 8 8.6 14.9

Nevada 9.2 10.1 14.4 15.2 16 23.6

Oregon 6.7 7.8 11 11.6 12.5 20

Utah 4.2 4.8 8.2 8.8 9.5 15.1

Washington 5.4 5.9 10.2 10.7 11.7 18.4

Wyoming 3 3.6 6.6 7.1 7.6 11.5

StateAlternative Measures of Labor Underutilization

September - 2007 By Dennis Cauchon

Which state has the fastest-growing economy? It's Idaho, thriving quietly!

• Idaho’s total jobs peaked in June 2007 at 669,500. • Total estimated jobs this June 2011 is around 610,000.

• Idaho’s low occurred in January 2010 at 583,400. •In the fall of 2009 we experienced record Year-Over-Year job of losses of almost 49,000. • Total losses from the recession are just under 60,000.

Tale of the Tape for Idaho’s Economy

-8.00%

-7.00%

-6.00%

-5.00%

-4.00%

-3.00%

-2.00%

-1.00%

0.00%

1.00%

2.00%

Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr

Ye

ar-t

o-Y

ear

% C

han

ge

Duration

Idaho NonFarm Job Performance During Recessions

1980-1982 1986 2001-2002 2008-2010 Forecast (Sep-09)

Idaho Department of Labor - March 2011

520,000

540,000

560,000

580,000

600,000

620,000

640,000

660,000

680,000

Jan

-07

Jun

-07

No

v-0

7

Ap

r-0

8

Se

p-0

8

Fe

b-0

9

Jul-

09

De

c-0

9

Ma

y-1

0

Oct

-10

Ma

r-1

1

Au

g-1

1

Jan

-12

Jun

-12

No

v-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Se

p-1

3

No

n-f

arm

Jo

bs

Simulated Economic Expansion

Y-O-Y Gains

Pre-recession Levels until 2014

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

Jan

-07

Jun

-07

No

v-0

7

Ap

r-0

8

Se

p-0

8

Fe

b-0

9

Jul-

09

De

c-0

9

Ma

y-1

0

Oct

-10

Ma

r-1

1

Au

g-1

1

Jan

-12

Jun

-12

No

v-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Se

p-1

3

No

n-f

arm

Jo

bs

Simulated Economic Expansion - Construction

Y-O-Y Gains

Pre-recession levels at the earliest around 2025

Idaho Department of Labor, Energy Business Scan

State Labor Market Information Improvement Grants (SGA/DFA PY08-17)

What’s the big deal with green jobs?

Idaho Green Jobs Definition

Data from 2010 Idaho Green Jobs Survey

3%

Green Employment in Idaho

2005, 2007 and 2009

Single Coverage

What percent of employers offer health

insurance to their employees*?

2007

63% Offered

2009

56% Offered

2005

74% Offered

*Full Time Employees Only

Non -Economic Coding Changes

• NAICS 2007 to 2012 Changes

• SOC 2010 Changes

• Educational Attainment – Projections and Career Information Systems

Summary of the NAICS Changes

• The most recent NAICS change (NAICS 2012 revision) was implemented in the 1st quarter 2011 QCEW data. The next set of changes shouldn’t occur until 2017.

• The biggest shift between cells at the 4-digit level was in restaurants. Formerly restaurants were in 7221 (full-service) and 7222 (limited-service), but now all restaurants are in 7225.

• Another change of note was in electric power generation. “Other electric power generation” (221119) was broken out to distinguish solar, wind, geothermal, and biomass power generation. This change occurred at the 6-digit level, so it won’t be obvious to most of our data users. However, it bears mentioning given the recent interest in Green data.

Summary of the SOC Changes

• 29-1111-Registered Nurses: which include advance practice nurses such as nurse practitioners, nurse specialists, midwives, anesthetists.

– 29-1141-Registered Nurse

– 29-1151-Nurse Anesthetists

– 29-1161-Nurse Midwives

– 29-1171-Nurse Practitioners

– Also in the 31-0000-Healthcare Support occupations, assistants and attendants were separated from orderlies and Phlebotomists essentially separating the care takers from the orderlies.

Educational Attainment

• Replaces single education/training category that was the “most significant source of education or training.”

• Now there will be three categories:

– Entry Level Education – 11 typical categories

– Previous Work Experience - 5 years, 1 to 5 years, less than 1 year, or none.

– Typical On-the-Job Training – internship/residency, apprenticeship, long-term, moderate-term, short-term OTJ training, or none.

What’s Next in LMI?

• Partnerships and collaborations between Education and Labor.

• WICHE – Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education

• SLDS Grants – State Longitudinal Database Systems

• WDQI – Workforce Data Quality Initiative

• Triangulation Partnerships

20.8%

24.8%24.6%

13.1%

18.1%19.6%20.1%

12.5%

8.4%

15.2%15.8%

Percentage Growth In Jobs by Education 2008-201830%

33%

37%

Frequency of the Jobs

Unskilled Skilled Professional

Inverse Relationship between Education and Unemployment

$18

$10$9 $10

$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

$12

$14

$16

$18

$20

Associate degree or Postsecondary vocational training

Bachelor's degree Master's degree or Bachelor's or higher degree, plus work experience

First professional degree or Doctoral degree

Educations Return on Investment for Every Dollar InvestedIdaho Department of Labor – March 2011

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1990 2000 2008

Percentage with a Bachelor's Degree or More (1990, 2000 and 2008)

Idaho

CA

MT

NV

OR

UT

WA

WY

U.S.

~ 25 years and older ~ Census Bureau and the Idaho Department of Labor , March 2011

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1990 2000 2008

Percentage with a Bachelor's Degree or More (1990, 2000 and 2008)

Idaho

CA

MT

NV

OR

UT

WA

WY

U.S.

Poly. (Idaho)

Poly. (CA)

Poly. (NV)

Poly. (UT)

~ 25 years and older ~ Census Bureau and the Idaho Department of Labor , March 2011

It is estimated that 20.3% of the jobs in

Idaho require a bachelor's degree or

more. Direct gap comparisons require a perfect one-to-one

match.

Demographic Shifts (Percentage Growth) Over the Next Decade in Idaho

Age 2008 Population 2019 Population Change % Change Nat LQ 2008 Nat LQ % Change

Under 5 years 123,751 133,732 9,981 8% 1.17 (1%)

5 to 9 years 114,519 132,456 17,937 16% 1.12 4%

10 to 14 years 109,467 128,495 19,028 17% 1.09 6%

15 to 19 years 115,347 117,646 2,299 2% 1.06 3%

20 to 24 years 113,813 109,317 (4,496) (4%) 1.06 (5%)

25 to 29 years 110,906 106,985 (3,921) (4%) 1.03 (10%)

30 to 34 years 95,328 113,207 17,879 19% 0.97 (2%)

35 to 39 years 97,020 112,397 15,377 16% 0.93 9%

40 to 44 years 94,390 102,494 8,104 9% 0.88 11%

45 to 49 years 103,974 92,026 (11,948) (11%) 0.91 0%

50 to 54 years 101,539 91,751 (9,788) (10%) 0.94 (7%)

55 to 59 years 91,158 96,834 5,676 6% 0.98 (11%)

60 to 64 years 74,521 96,017 21,496 29% 0.98 (5%)

65 to 69 years 55,785 86,890 31,105 56% 0.98 3%

70 to 74 years 41,763 68,923 27,160 65% 0.94 5%

75 to 79 years 33,593 47,096 13,503 40% 0.91 9%

80 to 84 years 26,100 29,954 3,854 15% 0.89 9%

85 years and over 24,531 27,913 3,382 14% 0.90 (2%)

Source: EMSI Complete Employment - 1st Quarter 2011

State of Idaho

Aging Work Force

Age 2008 Population 2019 Population Change % Change Nat LQ 2008Nat LQ % Change

Under 5 years 5,852 6,023 171 3% 0.81 1%

5 to 9 years 5,433 6,014 581 11% 0.78 6%

10 to 14 years 5,664 6,084 420 7% 0.83 4%

15 to 19 years 8,616 7,773 (843) (10%) 1.17 (3%)

20 to 24 years 11,949 10,777 (1,172) (10%) 1.64 (4%)

25 to 29 years 6,609 6,357 (252) (4%) 0.90 (4%)

30 to 34 years 4,712 6,158 1,446 31% 0.71 14%

35 to 39 years 5,653 5,839 186 3% 0.79 4%

40 to 44 years 5,747 4,673 (1,074) (19%) 0.79 (11%)

45 to 49 years 7,057 5,504 (1,553) (22%) 0.91 (7%)

50 to 54 years 7,383 5,890 (1,493) (20%) 1.01 (13%)

55 to 59 years 6,824 6,888 64 1% 1.08 (10%)

60 to 64 years 5,854 7,435 1,581 27% 1.14 (1%)

65 to 69 years 4,688 6,824 2,136 46% 1.21 2%

70 to 74 years 3,612 5,682 2,070 57% 1.20 7%

75 to 79 years 3,106 4,182 1,076 35% 1.23 12%

80 to 84 years 2,529 2,848 319 13% 1.27 13%

85 years and over 2,558 2,985 427 17% 1.38 7%

Source: EMSI Complete Employment - 1st Quarter 2011

North Central Idaho - Region 2

Aging Work Force

Local Employment Dynamics Tool

• Quarterly Workforce Indicators (QWI)

• “On the Map” – On The Map – LED’s online dynamic mapping and reporting tool

– Labor Segments – Choose to analyze part of the workforce by age group, earnings or industry

– Jobs by distance, direction and destination

– Paired Area Analysis – Constrain both sides of the home-work relationship

– Complex Geography Selection – Allows you to add areas together or subtract them from each other to get complex study areas (Census Block based)

– Where do workers live or work? (including cross-state flows)

– Most recent version contains data through 2009 with new variables including race, ethnicity and educational attainment. These new variables are only available for 2009 and only appear as characteristics with the Area Profile and Area Comparison analyses.

– Uses – Workforce and economic development, transportation planning and emergency management

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

MHS CHS MVHS RMHS EHS

24% 24% 23% 22% 23%

43% 39% 37% 37% 35%

34% 37% 40% 40% 43%

Less than $15k Between $15k and $40K More than $40K

2009 Wage Earnings by Meridian High School District Boundaries

Workers who live in the Meridian High School boundaries earn significantly less income than other high school geographies in the Meridian School District. Only around 34 percent of the workers who reside in the Meridian High School Boundaries earn more than $40k per year as compared to 43 percent for resident who live within the Eagle High School boundaries.

Source: United States Census Bureau, Local Employment Dynamics Program "ON The Map" Query - 2009 Data

Bob Uhlenkott Bob.uhlenkott@labor.idaho.gov

208.332.3570 ext-3217

Thanks for your time!