LECTURE L07BECOMING INVISIBLE

Steve Jobs Apple Special Event 27. January 2010

iPad

The iPad was released April 3rd From January to April there was a lot of discussion about the iPad

And there were more sceptics than not

And how was the response, again?

300,000 iPads were sold on their first day of availability By May 3, 2010, Apple had sold a million iPads

iPad

Inflection Point

Shift in Computing

Where is the C-drive?

Computer anyone can use

The computer just disappeared

Computer you use standing

Shifting focus

Technology Adoption Life Cycle - The Law of Diffusion of Innovation

TECHNOLOGY CONSUMER

Technology Adoption Life Cycle - The Law of Diffusion of Innovation

OBVIOUS INVISIBLE

Technology Adoption Life Cycle - The Law of Diffusion of Innovation

ANALYTICAL THINKINGEMOTIONS AND

FEELINGS

User Centred DesignDon Norman

Computers are still pretty complicated technology

Consumer Devices

The Computer and the Internet

disappear

Source: Morgan Stanley Research https://techpinions.com/the-terrible-tablet-tantrum-part-1/30840

Inflection pointsWhen technology changes business

Rapid growth starts

Decline of growth starts

Hype Curve

Wired Magazine editor (former) Chris Anderson on the Hype Curve and forecasting

TheHypeCycle Agraphicrepresentationofthematurity,adoptionandbusinessapplicationofspecifictechnologies

Peak of inflated Expectations

Technology TriggerTrough of Disillusionment

Slope of Enlightenment

Plateau of Productivity

NASDAQJanuary2000

The Internet Bubble

NASDAQJanuary2000

The Internet Bubble

NASDAQJanuary2000

The Internet Bubble

Source: ITU, a16z, Benedict Evans slides

GROWTH INTO THE BUBBLE

Source: ITU, a16z, Benedict Evans slides

GROWTH SINCE THE BUBBLE

The Internet Bubble

The Railway Bubble

RailwayStockinBritainThevalueofrailwaystockgrew4foldfrom1826to1846Manycompanies,heavyover-investmentThebubbleburst1846

Anderson’s Grand Unified Theory of Technology Trends

Anderson’s Grand Unified Theory of Predicting the Future

All important technologies go through four states, or at least four stages, in their lives. Each stage can be seen as a collision, with something else. The stages are:

1. Critical Price 2. Critical Mass 3. Displace another technology 4. Become nearly free

Theory of Predicting the Future

Technology Adoption Life Cycle - The Law of Diffusion of Innovation

TECHNOLOGY CONSUMER

Industrial Design

As technology matures, design becomes important

Industrial Design

Technology Adoption Life Cycle

The talent of the company that made the product in the early days may become wrong when the product matures

The organisational structure of companies need to change when the company moves from technology to products/services

Organisations which design systems ... are constrained to

produce designs which are copies of the communication structures

of these organisations

Conway’s Law

To whom does the designer report to? A programmer?

1983 1997

Jonathan Ive

TECHNOLOGYBUSINESSDESIGN

When will the earlymajority pragmaticsstart buying a product?

The value of the productis sufficiently great orgood-enough

Technology Life Cycle

Earlyinthecycle,technologyisimportant Whentechnologybecomesgoodenough:

ValuebecomesmoreimportantDesignbecomesmoreimportantTechnologyisnolongerthevariablethatcontrolspurchasesImprovementsloosetheirglamour

Customersarelookingforthingslikevalueconvenience,productivity,ease-of-use,low-cost,reliability

Emotions

Technology Life Cycle

Life Cycle of Technology ThemovefromTechnologytoCommodity

Theneed-satisfactioncurveoftechnology

The Market of CommoditiesWhat happens when a market becomes mature? Karaoke Capitalism takes over

Red oceans All the industries in existence today —the known market space Industry boundaries are defined and accepted, and the competitive rules of the game are known

Strategy for creating new markets Make the competition irrelevant Blue oceans denote all the industries not in existence today—the unknown market space, untainted by competition

Creating Blue Oceans

Instead of focusing on beating the competition, you focus on making the competition irrelevant by creating a leap in value for your buyers and your company, thereby opening up new and uncontested market space

Value Innovation

DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGY

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