Post on 27-Aug-2020
Renewable energyand the smart grid
Presentation 3rd Asian IAEE 21 February 2012
Kyoto, Japan
Perry SioshansiMenlo Energy Economics
San Francisco CAwww.menloenergy.com
Pleasure to be in Kyoto
Always a pleasure to visit Japan Thanks to IEE Japan, especially Professor
Kenichi Matsui for including me on the program
My main message
Why future growth of renewable energy resources – broadly accepted as a major paradigm shift in the electricity sector – cannotbe achieved without a more accommodating, more robust, and more capable grid
The term “smart grid” gets in the way
Proposed outline
First: What paradigm shift? Second: What new demands on old grid? Third: What implementation challenges
remain?
Smart GridNov 2011
FirstWhat paradigm change?
1. More reliable grid 2. Better balancing of supply & demand in real time 3. Integrating intermittent renewable energy 4. Accommodating distributed generation 5 Two-way conduit connecting loads to resources 6. Support “prices-to-devices” revolution
Aug 03 Northeast BlackoutNeed a more reliable grid
PA
NYCT
OH
MI
NJ
ON
Better balancing of load/generationCA’s summer peaks are aggravated by flat pricing
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
Jan-06 Mar-06 May-06 Jul-06 Sep-06 Nov-06
MW
Residential Air Conditioning
Com m ercial Air Conditioning
Source: David Hungerford, CEC
80% by 2050!German target post Fukushima
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2020 2030 2040 2050
Renewable targetsGerman renewable targets as % of total electricity generation
Source: German Govt. proposals
Distributed generationCalifornia Gov. envisions 12 GW of DG by 2025
Zero Net Energy Grid as two-way conduit connecting loads to resources
on-side electricity demand
zero net energy
distributed renewable generation
Prices-to-devicesDelivering smart prices to smart devices
Source: A. Faruqui, Brattle Group, Aug 2010
664 TWh EE potentialEPRI claims 14% energy reduction possible by 2030
Source: A. Faruqui, Brattle Group, Aug 2010
Demand ResponseAs much as 20% of US peak load may be managed by DR
Source: Nat ional assessment of DR potent ial, FERC, June 2009
SecondNew demands on old grid
Existing grid not capable of handling new requirements Reliability Real-timer balancing Renewable integration Distributed generation Connecting loads & resources as a “conduit” Prices-to-devices
Balancing in real timeBased on simulated CA data for 25 July 2012, MW
Source:
Wind not available when neededCA wind capacity during all-time summer peak load in 2006
Source:
Think of it as massive batteryOr DG on wheels
ThirdImplementation challenges remain
Enormous up-front costs, elusive distant gains How do we finance, how do we distribute pains/gains?
Investment, regulatory & policy misalignments Utilities, are by and large, heavily regulated & slow to act
Technology – a lot more is expected Rapidly evolving on multiple fronts
Integration Getting various components to “synergize” is major challenge
Implementation & execution What is easy on paper is often difficult in practice
Managing public expectations Many more painful lessons to be learned along the way
Questions?
Thank you
Few take away points
Current grid may not be smart but ain’t dumb Considered a significant “engineering achievement”
Rapid progress on multiple fronts Ample funding, R&D and entrepreneurial zest
Expect more setbacks/surprises Regulators reluctant to mandate dynamic pricing Small but vocal opposition to smart meters, data privacy, etc
No panacea, but a critical step in right direction Driven by desire for cleaner/greener/more efficient future
Back up slides
Most likely NOT used
RPS mandates in WECC
Source: Black & Veatch
US wind
Source: 2010 Wind Technologies Market Report, Ryan Wiser and Mark Bolinger, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, June 2011
US wind capacity, annual & cumulative, GW
Rising double digits
Source: 2010 Wind Technologies Market Report, Ryan Wiser and Mark Bolinger, LBL, June 2011
Wind generations as % of total electricity consumption
Smart GridIt is contagious
Source: Smart from the start, PwC, 2010
Renewables are for realSunPower claims it can install 1 MW per day
EV Penetration Alternative projections of # EVs on PG&E system
EVs massive load on networkA fast charging EV more than an entire house load
Will EVs fry the grid?EV charging must be strictly curtailed during peak periods
No more power plants?Texas ACEEE study, Mar 2007
California keeps it flatPer capita electricity consumption
Source: A. Faruqui, Brattle Group, Aug 2010
Costs and perhaps benefits?EPRI study Apr 2011
Source: Estimating the Costs and Benefits of the Smart Grid, EPRI, April 2011
The costsEPRI study Apr 2011
Source: Estimating the Costs and Benefits of the Smart Grid, EPRI, April 2011
And the benefitsEPRI study Apr 2011
Source: Estimating the Costs and Benefits of the Smart Grid, EPRI, April 2011
Exponential PV growthCustomer installed PVs on PG&E system 1,400 MW by 2015
5. The cheapest kWh is the oneyou don’t use
* Includes current federal & state level incentives, natural gas price is assumed at $4.50/MMBTUSource: US Renewable Energy Quarterly Report, ACORE, Oct 2010
More renewable generationUS non-hydro generation 1990-2035, in bkWh
Source: EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook 2011, 16 Dec 2010
California going low-carbonDon’t count on nuclear, CCS, cap-&-trade, or market signals
Source: Black & Veatch
Numbers talk
Source: 2010 Wind Technologies Market Report, Ryan Wiser and Mark Bolinger, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, June 2011
Annual and cumulative installed wind capacity, in MW
Renewable Growth
Reproduce graph fm BP, page 40, LEFT chart from source below
http://www.bp.com/liveassets/bp_internet/globalbp/STAGING/global_assets/downloads/O/2012_2030_energy_outlook_boo
klet.pdf
Renewable portfolio standardsUS states with mandatory targets
* Florida now has a 20% RPS by 2020 not reflected in the map. There may be other states as well that have adopted mandates since the map was publishedSource: Edison Electric Institute, 8 Apr 08
US wind contribution
Source: 2010 Wind Technologies Market Report, Ryan Wiser and Mark Bolinger, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, June 2011
Contribution of wind as % of new capacity additions, 2000-10