Euromonitor International ©Key trends and developments of Eastern European FMCG markets

Key trends and developments of Eastern European FMCG

markets

Ivan UzunovSenior Research Analyst Euromonitor International

Euromonitor International ©Key trends and developments of Eastern European FMCG markets

Outline

� About Euromonitor International

� Global retail market overview

� Focus: Romanian retail market

� Future developments

� Learning Historical Lessons

� Winners and Losers

Go

Go

Go

Go

Go

Go

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Euromonitor International ©Key trends and developments of Eastern European FMCG markets

About Euromonitor International

Euromonitor International ©Key trends and developments of Eastern European FMCG markets

Euromonitor International

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� Helping clients make informed decisions

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� 600 analysts in 80 countries

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Euromonitor International ©Key trends and developments of Eastern European FMCG markets

Our research approach

Consistent methodology for all countries

Concurrent international level

research

Benefits from close client relationships

In-depth research in each country:

published data, opinion, analysis

Multiple sourcing for accuracy, perspective

and insight

Rigorous data validation and cross country checks

Comparable definitions and coverage

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Euromonitor International ©Key trends and developments of Eastern European FMCG markets

Global retail market overview

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Euromonitor International ©Key trends and developments of Eastern European FMCG markets

Global Retailing market performance in 2008

Eastern Europe

US$ 663 billion

Growth 18%

Latin AmericaUS$ 786 billionGrowth 16%

Middle East and AfricaUS$ 468 billionGrowth 9%

AustralasiaUS$ 209 billionGrowth -11%

Western EuropeUS$ 3,440 billion Growth 8%

North AmericaUS$ 2,880 billionGrowth 2%

Asia PacificUS$ 2,725 billionGrowth 11%

*Current Retail Value RSP excl Sales Tax 7

Euromonitor International ©Key trends and developments of Eastern European FMCG markets

Global Retailing market performance in 2008

Ukraine

US$43 billion

Growth 24%

PolandUS$97 billionGrowth 4%

Czech RepublicUS$35 billionGrowth 8%

SlovakiaUS$19 billionGrowth 18%

BulgariaUS$11 billion Growth 12%

RomaniaUS$31 billionGrowth 13%

HungaryUS$35 billionGrowth 8%

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Euromonitor International ©Key trends and developments of Eastern European FMCG markets

Trends 2008: Developed Markets

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Euromonitor International ©Key trends and developments of Eastern European FMCG markets

Trends 2008: Emerging Markets

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Euromonitor International ©Key trends and developments of Eastern European FMCG markets

Europe: RSP growth 2000-2008

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Euromonitor International ©Key trends and developments of Eastern European FMCG markets

Retail Formats Development: % of total grocery retail sales

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Euromonitor International ©Key trends and developments of Eastern European FMCG markets

Focus: Romanian retail market

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Euromonitor International ©Key trends and developments of Eastern European FMCG markets

Romanian retail trade in figures

Store based retailing:

� Non store retailing:

Data Type Unit 2008 Growth 07/08

Outlets outlets 137,895.00 0.56%

Selling space '000s sq m 8,238.29 4.85%

Retail RSP ex VAT (curr, local) Million Local Currency 72,867.09 13.73%

Data Type Unit 2008 Growth 07/08

Retail rsp ex VAT (curr, local) Million Local Currency 2,105.11 23.97%

Euromonitor International ©Key trends and developments of Eastern European FMCG markets

Trends 2008: Romania

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Euromonitor International ©Key trends and developments of Eastern European FMCG markets

Competitive landscape

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Euromonitor International ©Key trends and developments of Eastern European FMCG markets

Future developments

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Euromonitor International ©Key trends and developments of Eastern European FMCG markets

Crisis outlook

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Euromonitor International ©Key trends and developments of Eastern European FMCG markets

Crisis outlook

Euromonitor International ©Key trends and developments of Eastern European FMCG markets

Learning Historical Lessons

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Euromonitor International ©Key trends and developments of Eastern European FMCG markets

Western European Crisis 2002-2004

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Euromonitor International ©Key trends and developments of Eastern European FMCG markets

Argentina Crisis 1999 – 2002

0.0

20,000.0

40,000.0

60,000.0

80,000.0

100,000.0

120,000.0

0.0

50,000.0

100,000.0

150,000.0

200,000.0

250,000.0

300,000.0

350,000.0

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

An

nu

al

dis

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sab

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inco

me

Va

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of

reta

ilin

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ale

s (A

RS

mn

)

Sales in retailing hit by fall in dispoable income

Annual disposable income Retailing

-40.0

-20.0

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08% Growth

Sales growth erratic during and following downturn year

Supermarkets Small grocery retailers

Health and beauty specialist retailers Clothing and footwear specialist retailers

Electronics and appliance specialist retailers

Sales in Retailing hit by fall in disposable income

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Euromonitor International ©Key trends and developments of Eastern European FMCG markets

Winners and Losers

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Euromonitor International ©Key trends and developments of Eastern European FMCG markets

Past Crises: Winners and Losers

•Hypermarkets•Supermarkets•Discounters•Internet retailing

•Home and garden retailers•Leisure and personal goods retailers•Clothing and footwear retailers•Electronics and appliance retailers•“Traditional” retailers

LoosingWinning

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Euromonitor International ©Key trends and developments of Eastern European FMCG markets

Winners and Losers of 2008/2009

• Internet retailers

• Electronics and appliance specialist retailers

• Leveraged retailers

• Grocery retailers

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Euromonitor International ©Key trends and developments of Eastern European FMCG markets

Q&A

Ivan Uzunov

Euromonitor International – Eastern Europe

e-mail: ivan.uzunov@euromonitor.lt

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