Post on 13-Jul-2020
JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 28 No 2 – 17 February 2020
1
r
The review period for this issue of the Bulletin (1 January
to 10 February) was, again, warmer than usual throughout
Europe. In large parts of France and many regions
surrounding the North Sea, the Baltic Sea and in eastern
Europe it was the warmest 1 January to 10 February
period on our records (since 1979).
As a consequence of the very mild weather conditions, the
frost tolerance in winter cereals – built-up to protect the
crops in case of a cold-air intrusion – remains considerably
weaker than usual in Germany, Poland, the Baltic
countries, southern Scandinavia, the Balkan region, south-
western Russia, Ukraine, and the British Isles. In several of
these regions, the level of winter hardening is now even
lower than reported in the January issue of the Bulletin.
In Mediterranean regions and the northern half of the
Iberian Peninsula, the warmer-than-usual conditions are
accompanied by a marked deficit in precipitation. In
Romania, the drought conditions reported in the January
issue of the Bulletin were alleviated by some rain in late
January; however, this was insufficient to offset the
cumulative deficit (as did occur in southern Ukraine).
Likewise, in southern Italy and Greece, the precipitation
forecast for the coming week will not be sufficient to
counterbalance the winter deficit. In most of the regions
affected, this will not have a direct impact on crops, but
above-average rainfall will be needed at the end of winter
and in early spring, to sustain optimal regrowth of winter
cereals. However, in parts of the Maghreb region (e.g.
central Morocco, western Algeria) the persistent rain
deficit is starting to impact biomass accumulation of
wheat. In western Scotland and Northern Ireland, there was a
marked surplus of precipitation for the period as a whole.
Online version Issued: 17 February 2020
JRC MARS Bulletin Vol 28 No 2
JRC MARS Bulletin Crop monitoring in Europe
February 2020
Very mild winter conditions continue Dry spell in Mediterranean regions
Content: 1. Winter hardening and frost kill 2. Agrometeorological review 3. Atlas
Covers the period from 1 January until 10 February
JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 28 No 2 – 17 February 2020
2
Winter hardening and frost kill
Our latest frost-kill model simulations present a
considerably weaker-than-usual hardening 1 status for
winter cereals in an extended area of Europe (Germany,
Poland, Baltic countries, southern Scandinavia, Balkan
Peninsula, south-western Russia, Ukraine, and the British
Isles). In many of these regions, the anomaly – compared
to the average situation in this period of the year – has
become even more pronounced than reported in the
January issue of the Bulletin. Winter wheat is not, or only
slightly, hardened in the Atlantic and Mediterranean
regions, as well as in central Europe and the Balkan region,
thus making it susceptible to cold air intrusions. The
hardening of winter cereals is more advanced eastwards,
and full or almost full hardening has been achieved in
eastern and northern Europe. Frost tolerance has started
to decline in central Europe (e.g. Czechia, Carpathian
Basin). Winter cereals are generally not hardened in the UK,
Ireland, France, Benelux countries, Germany, Denmark,
western Poland, most of the Balkan region, and even
southern Sweden. Winter cereals have become slightly or partially
hardened in the Carpathian Basin, Czechia, eastern
Poland, Lithuania, and the regions surrounding the Black
Sea. Hardening of winter cereals is advanced in eastern
Slovakia, Latvia, Estonia, Belarus, Ukraine, central Turkey
and some southern and western regions of Russia. Winter cereals are almost fully or fully hardened in
the northern and easternmost parts of Europe, including
Finland and central and northern parts of the
Scandinavian Peninsula, in most of European Russia, and
in eastern Turkey.
Our frost-kill model indicates no significant additional
frost-kill damage other than reported in the January issue
of the Bulletin.
Considering the medium-range weather forecast (issued
on 11 February), frost tolerance will continue to weaken in
central Europe during the second dekad of February. No
significant changes are expected elsewhere in Europe. No
further frost-kill damage is forecast during the forecast
period.
1 Hardening is a bio-physiological process of winter cereals that occurs
when, in response to cold conditions, the crops transform cellular starch
to sugar thus gaining low-temperature tolerance to survive the harsh
winter conditions.
JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 28 No 2 – 17 February 2020
3
Agrometeorological overview
2.1 Meteorological review (1 January – 10 February) Warmer-than-usual conditions have been recorded
throughout Europe. In the Iberian and Italian Peninsulas,
south-eastern Europe, Ireland and Turkey, average daily
temperature anomalies for the review period as a whole were mostly less than 2°C with respect to the long-term
average (LTA). In central and western Europe, the positive anomalies ranged between 2°C and 4°C. In eastern and
northern Europe, temperatures between 4°C and 6°C
higher than average were reported. In central European
Russia, southern Finland, the Baltic countries, and most of Sweden, daily mean temperature anomalies between 6°C
and 8°C were recorded. Large parts of France, and many
regions surrounding the North Sea, the Baltic Sea and in
eastern Europe experienced the warmest weather on our
records for the analysis period. Minimum temperatures
below -10°C were recorded only in parts of eastern and
north-eastern Europe. Regions surrounding the Baltic Sea
experienced substantially fewer cold days (with minimum
daily temperature below 0°C) than would normally be
expected for this period of the year. Drier-than-usual conditions occurred in large parts of
south-eastern Europe, Italy, southern France, the western
half of the Iberian Peninsula, and the Maghreb region.
Precipitation anomalies, for the period as a whole, mainly
ranged from -80% to -50% with respect to the LTA. Some
areas in central Italy, Greece and the Maghreb region
received less than 10 mm of rainfall, which represents
80% less than the LTA values for the analysis period. Wetter-than-usual conditions were observed in the
eastern part of the Iberian Peninsula, northern Alpine
regions, northern British Isles, regionally in central Europe,
north-eastern Europe and eastern Black Sea regions. In
most of these regions, precipitation was between 30%
and 100% of the LTA. However, in eastern Spain, western
Scandinavia, northern Romania and southern Russia, the
rainfall recorded was more than double the LTA.
JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 28 No 2 – 17 February 2020
4
JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 28 No 2 – 17 February 2020
5
2.2 Weather forecast (14 – 21 February) Weather conditions during the forecast period will be determined by the following: (i) a stationary trough over the eastern
Mediterranean, that will induce precipitation events in the area; (ii) a ridge deepening from the western side of northern
Africa into the central Mediterranean, that will favour warmer-than-usual conditions; (iii) a deep cyclone over the North
Atlantic, that will induce precipitation events and intense south-west wind along the Atlantic side of Europe. At the end
of the forecast period, this cyclonic disturbance will move towards the central and eastern Mediterranean.
Warmer-than-usual conditions are forecast
throughout Europe, with daily mean temperature
anomalies (with respect to the long-term average) that
will mainly range from 2°C to 6°C in western and central
Europe, and from 6°C to 8°C in eastern and northern
Europe. Daily mean temperature anomalies above 8°C are
expected in the north-western part of European Russia.
Daily minimum temperatures are forecast to remain
above -4°C in western and central Europe, with positive
values from 0°C to 2°C in most of the Iberian Peninsula
(higher values in south-western parts), in the United
Kingdom, and along the Atlantic coast of Europe. In
eastern Europe, daily minimum temperatures may reach -
6°C, while values below -10°C are expected in most of the
Scandinavian Peninsula and Russia.
Cumulative precipitation in the forecast period is expected to range between 40 mm and 60 mm in most
of Ireland, the western side of the UK (where it may locally reach 100 mm), Denmark and southern Sweden.
Precipitation above 120 mm is expected in Scotland and
in southern Norway.
In most of western Europe and in large regions of eastern
Europe, total precipitation during the forecast period will be less than 5 mm. In all other regions, cumulative
precipitation will range from 10 mm to 40 mm.
The long-range weather forecast for the next three
months (March-April-May) shows warmer-than-usual
conditions likely to occur in most of Europe, and very likely
to occur in the Scandinavian Peninsula and Russia.
JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 28 No 2 – 17 February 2020
6
Atlas
Temperature regime
JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 28 No 2 – 17 February 2020
7
Precipitation
JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 28 No 2 – 17 February 2020
8
JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 28 No 2 – 17 February 2020
9
JRC MARS Bulletins 2020
Date Publication Reference
27 Jan Agromet analysis Vol. 28 No 1 17 Feb Agromet analysis Vol. 28 No 2 23 Mar Agromet analysis, yield
forecast Vol. 28 No 3
27 Apr Agromet analysis, remote sensing, yield forecast, sowing conditions, pasture analysis
Vol. 28 No 4
18 May Agromet analysis, remote sensing, yield forecast, sowing update, pasture analysis
Vol. 28 No 5
15 Jun Agromet analysis, remote sensing, yield forecast, pasture update, rice analysis
Vol. 28 No 6
27 Jul Agromet analysis, remote sensing, yield forecast, harvesting conditions, pasture update
Vol. 28 No 7
24 Aug Agromet analysis, remote sensing, yield forecast, pasture update, harvesting update
Vol. 28 No 8
14 Sep Agromet analysis, remote sensing, pasture update, yield forecast, harvesting update
Vol. 28 No 9
26 Oct Agromet analysis, pasture update, sowing conditions, yield forecast
Vol. 28 No 10
23 Nov Agromet analysis, harvesting update, sowing update
Vol. 28 No 11
14 Dec Agromet analysis Vol. 28 No 12
The current JRC MARS Bulletin — Crop monitoring in Europe is a JRC–European Commission publication from MARS4CAST (JRC Unit D5 — Directorate for Sustainable Resources)
JRC MARS Bulletins are available at https://ec.europa.eu/jrc/en/mars/bulletins https://agri4cast.jrc.ec.europa.eu
Analysis and reports A. Bussay, A. Ceglar, I. Cerrani, G. Manfron, L. Panarello, L. Seguini, A. Toreti, M. van den Berg
Reporting support SeproTec, I. Biavetti, G. Mulhern
Edition M. van den Berg
Data production MARS4CAST (JRC Unit D5), WENR (NL), MeteoGroup (NL)
Contact JRC D5 / MARS4CAST JRCMARSBULLETIN@ec.europa.eu
Legal notice: Neither the European Commission nor any person acting on behalf of the Commission is responsible for the use, which might be made of this publication.
Disclaimer: The geographic borders are purely a graphical representation and are only intended to be indicative. The boundaries do not necessarily reflect the official European Commission position.
Technical note:
The long-term average (LTA) used within this Bulletin as a reference is based on an archive of data covering 1979-2019.
Mission statement: As the science and knowledge service of the European Commission, the Joint Research Centre's mission is to support EU policies with independent evidence throughout the whole policy cycle.