JIPOE KULLAAWSEMINAR FOXTROT

1. DEFINING THE OPERATIONAL ENVIRONMENT

2. DESCRIBING THE OPNL ENVIRONMENT

3. EVALUATING THE ADVERSARY

4. DETERMINING THE ADVERSARY’S COURSES OF ACTIONS (COAs)

JIPOE STEPS

DEFINING THE OPERATIONAL ENVIRONMENT

• AREA OF INTEREST• AREA OF INFLUENCE• AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY• JOA (based on para 6- CN Guidance dated 04 Jul 14)• SIGNIFICANT CHARACTERISTICS OF OPNL

ENVIRONMENT• INITIAL INFORMATION COLLECTION

REQUIREMENTS

CONSISTS OF:

• NOLCOM AOR:

ILOCOS REGION CAGAYAN VALLEY

REGION CORDILLERA REGION CENTRAL LUZON REGION

• LACUHA ISLAND PROVINCE

• SOCIALIST REPUBLIC OF NUVARIA (SRN)

• DEVORA ISLAND

AREA OF INTEREST

South Basin

TaklubuReef

CONSISTS OF:• AOR OF NOLCOM

ILOCOS REGION CAGAYAN VALLEY

REGION (INCLUDING LACUHA ISLAND PROVINCE)

CORDILLERA REGION CENTRAL LUZON

REGION

AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY

South Basin

TaklubuReef

Area of Responsibility

Particular Coverage

Land Area (Sq Km) 65,757

Region 4

Provinces 22

Districts 49

Cities 27Municipalities 398

Barangays 9,854Population (Million) 19.2

CONSISTS OF:

• NE LUZON SPODs & APODs

• LACUHA ISLAND PROVINCE

• EXTENDS UP TO DEVORA ISLAND AND NW PART OF NUVARIA (RAMEY AIRBASE)

AREA OF INFLUENCE

South Basin

TaklubuReef

PROPOSED JOA WILL BE:

• NE LUZON SPODs & APODs

• LACUHA ISLAND PROVINCE

• PHL EEZ (200 NM) EAST, NORTH AND SOUTH OF LACUHA

• CONTAGIOUS AND TERRITORIAL WATERS WEST OF LACUHA ISLAND

• AIRSPACES IN LACUHA AND NE LUZON

PROPOSED JOA

South Basin

TaklubuReef

F-27 X 1

PROPOSED JOA Taklubu Reef

South Basin

100NM

SIGNIFICANT CHARACTERISTICS OF

PROPOSED JOA(PMESII)

PROPOSED JOA

POLITICALGEOPOLITICAL SITUATION:

• MAURINII ANTONIO DE LOPEZ INSTALLED AS PRESIDENT OF SRN IN 2003 AFTER A BLOODY COUP DE ETAT

• DE LOPEZ INCREASED MILITARY SPENDING IN NAF & RENEWED NATIONALISM FOR THE CLAIM OF LACUHA

• THE PHL ASKED ASSISTANCE FROM THE US THROUGH THE MDT

PROPOSED JOA

POLITICALGEOPOLITICAL SITUATION:

• FEB 2014 - NUVARIAN AMBASSADOR TO PHL WAS RECALLED

• RECALLED NUVARIANS FROM THE PHL

• Established as a province in 1965 - RA 11175

• Capital: Sta Cruz town

• Internationally recognized as an island province of Cagayan, Philippines

• Continuously claimed by Nuvaria as part of its territory

POLITICAL

Lacuha Island

Gasan

• 6 Municipalities:

Mogpog, Sta Cruz, Boac, Gasan, Buenavista, and Torrijos

• Municipalities headed by Mayor.

• Gov. Magtanggol Magtapat – holds office in Tuguegarao

• l2 Provl Board members

• 2 Congressional Districts

POLITICAL

• Major Political Parties: Nacionalista Party

Liberal Party

Lakas-NUCD

Kampi

Partido ng Masang Pil

Kilusang Bagong Lipunan

POLITICAL

Lacuha Island

Gasan

• No AFP units in Lacuha Island at present

• PPSC stationed in Sta Cruz (350 PNP)

MILITARY – FRIENDLY

PNP

CAR

Region IIRegion I

Region III

5th Inf Div, PACamp Melchor Dela Cruz, Upi, Gamu, Isabela

501st Inf Bde, 5ID, PABrgy Banguinge, Kiangan, Ifugao

502nd Inf Bde, 5ID, PABrgy Suyong, Echague, Isabela

503rd Inf Bde, 5ID, PABrgy Calanan, Tabuk City, Kalinga

7th Inf Div, PAFort Ramon Magsaysay, Palayan City, Nueva Ecija

702nd Inf Bde, 7ID, PABrgy San Isidro Norte, Binmaley, Pangasinan

703rd Inf Bde, 7ID, PABrgy San Juan Baño, Arayat, Pampanga

Naval Forces Northern Luzon

NSEO, Poro Point, San Fernando, La Union

NBCO, Brgy San Vicente, Sta Ana, Cagayan

TOG1,Loakan Airport, Baguio City

TOG2,School,Cauyan City, Isabela

TOG3, Camp Aquino, San Miguel, Tarlac City

TOGs, 1AD

17

NOLCOM MAINLAND FORCES

JTF-NCR (Rapid Reaction Force)

• 1 Inf Bn (Airmobile ops capable)

• 1 Mech Inf Bn

• 1 Marine Bn (Amphi Ops capable)

• 1 Squadron Tactical Helis

• 1 Squadron CAS A/cft

• 1 Heavy Airlift A/cft

• 1 Strategic Sealift Vessel

MILITARY – FRIENDLY

NUVARIAN ARMED FORCES (NAF)

• MOD LOCATED IN SAN JUAN

• GHQ AND FLEET HQS LOCATED AT SABANA SECA NAVAL BASE

• NAVAL INFANTRY HQ & BDES LOCATED AT CAMP SANTIAGO MARINE BASE

• AIR FORCE HQ & 5TH & 6TH BOMBER WINGS LOCATED AT RAMEY AIR BASE

• 1ST, 2ND, 3RD,& 4TH FIGHTER WINGS LOCATED AT BUCHANAN AIR STATION

• ARMY HQ & ALL ARMY BDES LOCATED AT FORT ALLEN

• ESTABLISHING CYBERWARFARE CAPABILITIES

Sabana Seca Naval Base

Camp Santiago Marine Base

Ramey Air Base

Buchanan Air Station

Fort Allen

NUVARIA

MILITARY – ADVERSARY

NAF JTF

• West Nuvarian Fleet

• 7th Air Force Group

• 2nd Naval Inf Bde

• Nuvarian SPF

MILITARY – ADVERSARY NAF FORCES THREATENING TO INVADE LACUHA ISLAND

• AGRICULTURE - MAIN ECONOMIC ACTIVITY (48% EMPLOYED)

• 58% OF THE TOTAL LAND AREA (95,925 Has.) ARE CULTIVATED; 66% - COCONUTS; 18% PALAY

• FISHING IS THE NEXT SOURCE OF INCOME AFTER FARMING; 75% SHIPPED OUTSIDE THE PROVINCE

ECONOMIC

• NO SHOPPING MALLS

• NO MULTINATIONAL COMPANIES

• NINE COMMERCIAL BANKS

• HIGH UNEMPLOYMENT RATE 11.8% IN 2005

• POPULATION BELOW POVERTY LEVEL: 44.8% (2008)

ECONOMIC

• TOTAL POPULATION AS OF 2010 IS 227,828

• COMPOSITION OF TRIBES: 70% IVATANS 20% ILONGOTS 10% IBANAGS

• SRN ASSERTS THAT MORE THAN HALF THE POPULATION ARE OF NUVARIAN DESCENT

SOCIAL

Lacuha Island

Gasan

• AIRPORT LOCATED AT GASAN

• WATER SYTEM: LEVEL II SYSTEM (PIPED WATER

W/ COMMUNAL WATER POINT IN TOWN AREAS

LEVEL I (STAND ALONE WATER POINTS (HAND PUMPS, WELLS) IN RURAL AREAS

• POWER SYSTEM: 14.35 MW W/ AVE CAPACITY

OF 200 KW

DIESEL POWERED.

INFRASTRUCTURE

Gasan Airport

Boac Port Santa Cruz Port

Balanacan Port

• PORTS LOCATED AT BALANACAN, STA CRUZ, GASAN, AND BOAC:

BERTHING AREA/S: TWO (2) RORO RAMPS – 11.00M X 9.00MR.C. WHARF – 83 LN.M.DRAFT: TWO (2) RORO RAMPS – 9.00M DEEPR.C. WHARF – 9.00M DEEP

INFRASTRUCTURE

Gasan Port

• PROVINCIAL HOSPITAL IN BOAC - 100-BED CAPACITY

• STA CRUZ DISTRICT HOSPITAL - 25-BED CAPACITY

• TORRIJOS MUNICIPAL HOSPITAL - 10-BED CAPACITY

INFRASTRUCTURE – HEALTH

Lacuha Island

Provincial Jail

INFRASTRUCTURE – PRISON

• 120 -KM CIRCUMFERENTIAL ROAD

• 98 PERCENT - ALL-WEATHER ROAD

• NEARLY 100 PERCENT ARE WELL-PAVED.

MSR

• GLOBE AND SMART

• WITH DOMESTIC AND INTERNATIONAL LINKAGES

INFORMATION

• Adversary Where will the lodgement forces of NAF JTF land?

What are the targeted military objectives of the NAF JTF in Lacuha and in mainland NLuzon?

What is the current locations of the NAF UAVs and the 2 spy ships spotted in Taklubu reef?

Are all forces of NAF JTF deployed already at Fleet base Kailua Kona in Devora Island?

INITIAL INFORMATION COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

• Operational Environment

What are the expected weather conditions in the next two weeks? What is the reaction of the majority of local populace in Lacuha for the impending Nuvarian invasion? What political parties/organisations/entities in Lacuha are supportive of the Nuvarian claim?

INITIAL INFORMATION COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

DESCRIBING THE IMPACT OF THE OPERATIONAL EVIRONMENT

• PHYSICAL TERRAIN ANALYSIS• HUMAN TERRAIN ANALYSIS• OTHER STAKEHOLDERS• INFORMATIONAL TERRAIN ANALYSIS• METEOROLOGICAL & OCEANAGRAPHIC (METOC)

ANALYSIS• OVERALL ENVIRONMENTAL DEDUCTIONS• NODE LINK ANALYSIS

Lacuha Island

Gasan

PHYSICAL TERRAIN ANALYSIS

• Lakuha is a “heart-shape” island province of PH

• Total Land area = 95,258 Ha

• NE of the PH approx. 100 miles from mainland Luzon

Highest peak Mount Malindig - 1,157 m (3,796 ft.) ASL, located in the southern tip of the island

GEOGRAPHY

Lacuha Island

Gasan

PHYSICAL TERRAIN ANALYSIS

Various cave occupies the province (Grand Bathala Cave & San Isidro Cave with complex subterranean river

Very advantageous for defensive operations.

GEOGRAPHY

Lacuha Island

Gasan

LAND DIMENSION

Approx. 83% - hills and mountains area

17% built-up areas, coastal, swamp, and marshy areas

Terrain is rocky but gentle and undulating

Mountainous interior - home to rare and endangered flora and fauna.

PHYSICAL TERRAIN ANALYSIS

Lacuha Island

Gasan

LAND DIMENSION

Hills drop steeply - maximum elevation of 1,157 m (3,796 ft) ASL

Ideal for sustained defensive operations

PHYSICAL TERRAIN ANALYSIS

- HILLS AND MOUNTAINS

- BUILT-UP AREAS

- COASTAL, SWAMP, AND MARSHY AREAS

- PLAIN/FLAT

- MT. MALINDIG/ HIGHEST PEAK

LEGEND:

Lacuha Island

Gasan

PHYSICAL TERRAIN ANALYSIS

LAND DIMENSION

LEGEND:

PHYSICAL TERRAIN ANALYSIS

LAND DIMENSION Lacuha Island

Gasan

- RESTRICTED TERRAIN

- SEVERELY RESTRICTED TERRAIN

MARITIME DOMAIN

• Lacuha is home to myriad of corals and sea creatures

• Sea condition is calm especially during summer and SE monsoon.

PHYSICAL TERRAIN ANALYSIS

Lacuha Island

Gasan

Lacuha Island

Gasan

MARITIME DIMENSION

• SPODS BALANACAN – LSV CAWIT – LSV LAYLAY - PG BUYABOD - PG GASAN - PG STA CRUZ – LSV TORRIJOS – PG

PHYSICAL TERRAIN ANALYSIS

Lacuha Island

Gasan

AIR AND SPACE DOMAIN

• APODS MASIGA – C130

CAPABLE TAPIAN – C130

CAPABLE GASAN- C130

CAPABLE

PHYSICAL TERRAIN ANALYSIS

ADIZ

ADIZ

ADIZ

ADIZ

PHYSICAL TERRAIN ANALYSISAIR AND SPACE DIMENSION

HUMAN TERRAIN ANALYSIS

POPULATION - 227,000

ETHNIC COMPOSITION: 70% IVATANS; 20% ILONGOTS; &10% IBANAGS - PURELY FILIPINO AND WILL RESIST NUV INVASION

POPULATION BELOW POVERTY LEVEL :44.8%

UNEMPLOYMENT RATE :11.8%

HIGH POVERTY INCIDENCE AND UNEMPLOYMENT COULD BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO ENEMY ISA

HUMAN TERRAIN ANALYSIS

PEACE-LOVING PEOPLE (ONLY 350 PNP PERSONNEL MAINTAIN PEACE AND ORDER)

PEOPLE OF LACUHA ARE NOTABLY SERIOUS IN THEIR EXERCISE OF SUFFRAGE INDICATING STRONG PATRIOTIC SENSE

OTHER STAKEHOLDERS ANALYSIS

UN: DOES NOT SUPPORT THE NUVARIAN CLAIM OVER LACUHA ISLAND- THIS COULD MAKE THE NUVARIAN LEADERSHIP RESORT TO DESPERATE MEASURES.

US: SUPPORTS THE DIPLOMATIC AND PEACEFUL RESOLUTION OF THE TERRITORIAL DISPUTE - THIS COULD MEAN NON-INTERVENTION BY THE US IN THE EVENT OF A MILITARY ACTION BY NUV IN LACUHA.

OTHER STAKEHOLDERS ANALYSIS

NUVARIAN TOURISTS AND INVESTORS IN THE PH- WILL LIKELY FLEE AND WILL PULL OUT THEIR PORTFOLIOS

FILIPINO WORKFORCE AT NUV FACTORIES AND HOUSEHOLDS: PH WILL HAVE TO PLAN FOR CONTINGENCY EVACUATION

OTHER STAKEHOLDERS ANALYSIS

OIL EXPLORATION INDUSTRY- SITUATION MAY CAUSE INVESTMENT JITTERY AND MAY PROPEL OIL PRICES TO SHOOT UP

INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY (IC)- FIRM COLLECTIVE POSTURE BY THE IC UNDER DURESS OF ECONOMIC OR MILITARY SANCTIONS COULD BE A DETERRENT TO HOSTILE ACTIONS

OTHER STAKEHOLDERS ANALYSIS

TOURIST/HOTEL INDUSTRY- WILL SIGNIFICANTLY FEEL THE INDIRECT BRUNT OF THE CONFLICT WITH LOWER REVENUES

PNP, COASTGUARD AND PARA-MILITARY FORCES- MAY BE DEPLOYED AND WILL TAKE A SECONDARY SUPPORT ROLE TO THE AFP EFFORTS.

INFORMATION TERRAIN ANALYSIS DOMESTIC & INTERNATIONAL LINKAGES IS

PROVIDED BY GLOBE AND SMART

INTERNET ALLOWS FOR INTERCONNECTIVITY AND ACCESS TO NON-MILITARY OPEN SOURCE SYSTEMS AND IS THE PRIMARY MODE OF DELIVERY OF DATA INFORMATION

CYBERWARFARE CAPABILITIES OF BOTH FORCES COULD INFLUENCE THE INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT

NOLCOM CEIS CAPABILITY MAY NOT WORK WELL IN LACUHA ISLAND

WEATHER / CLIMATE

• Type III Climate – rainfall more or less evenly distributed through out the year/no clear boundary between dry and wet

• Double during May – October (Monsoon Season)

• Temperature bet 27°C to 32°C

• Humidity av e= 78% year round

• Ave rainfall 2,034.6 mm

• Driest period: January – April

• Annual precipitation: 910 mm (36in)

• Coastal region: 101-381 mm

• Higher ground: 508 mm

METOC ANALYSIS

WEATHER / CLIMATE

CONDITION PERIODNorth-East Monsoon (Amihan)

November - April

South-West Monsoon (Habagat)

July - October

Favorable for Sea Travel May - June

METOC ANALYSIS

CLIMATOLOGICAL EFFECTS ON MILITARY OPERATIONS

Mission Area JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

AIR

MARITIME

GROUND

AMPH

UNRESTRICTED MODERATERESTRICTION

SEVERERESTRICTION

METOC ANALYSIS

EFFECTS ON ENEMY/FRIENDLY COAs:SITUATION EFFECT ON ENEMY COAS EFFECT ON FF COAS

TROPICAL RAINFORESTS PROVIDES LIFE SUPPORT SYSTEM (COVER, WATER, AND FOOD.)

PROVIDES LIFE SUPPORT SYSTEM, SUPPORT OF COMMUNITIES.

MOUNTAINOUS AREAS MOBILITY HAMPERED BY RESTRICTIVE AND SEVERELY RESTRICTIVE TERRAINS.

LIMITS TROOP MOVEMENT.

CAUSES INTERFERENCES TO LOS COMMU EQIPT

MOBILITY HAMPERED BY RESTRICTIVE AND SEVERELY RESTRICTIVE TERRAINS

LIMITS TROOP MOVEMENT.

INTERFERENCES TO LOS COMMU EQUIPT

CONCENTRATION OF DRRO DURING TYPHOON (LANDSLIDE AND FLASHFLOODS) AND FOREST FIRES DURING DRY SEASON

SITUATION EFFECT ON ENEMY COAS

EFFECT ON FF COAS

GENERALLY SURROUNDED BY COASTLINE

ADVANTAGEOUS TO AMPHIBIOUS OPNS

OBSTACLE POSITIONS HAMPER MOBILITY

ADVANTAGEOUS TO AMPHIBIOUS LANDINGS OBSTACLE POSITIONS HAMPER MOBILITY

CONSIDERATION FOR DRRO EFFORT DURING TYPHOON.

THICK VEGETATION PROVIDES COVER AND CONCEALMENT.

DIFFICULT FOR MANEUVER OF ARMOR ASSETS AND CAS OPS.

PROVIDES COVER AND CONCEALMENT.

DIFFICULT FOR MANEUVER OF ARMOR ASSETS AND CAS OPS.

EFFECTS ON ENEMY/FRIENDLY COAs:

SITUATION EFFECT ON ENEMY COAS EFFECT ON FF COAS

SOUTH BASIN SHELTERING AREA FOR SEA VESSELS

SHELTERING AREA FOR SEA VESSELS

TAKLUBU REEF HAZARDOUS TO AMPHIBIOUS LANDINGS

HAZARDOUS TO AMPHIBIOUS LANDING

EFFECTS ON ENEMY/FRIENDLY COAs:

PMESII NODE-LINKNETWORK ANALYSIS

(Adversary)

62 3

NODE ANALYSISNUVARIA

LEGEND:1 – PRESIDENT 5 - PURSUING TERRITORIAL CLAIMS 2 - FOREIGN AFFAIRS MINISTRY IN INTERNATIONAL FORA 3 - EXECUTIVE DEPARTMENTS 6 - SRN EMBASSY TO ASEAN 4 - ULTIMATE DIPLOMATIC 7 - SRN EMBASSY TO UN PROTEST (MAR 2012) 8 - WITHRAWAL OF SRN AMB TO PH

POLITICAL

1

4

5

8

7

4 9

8

7

53

10

1

NODE ANALYSISNUVARIA

MILITARY LEGEND:1 – MINISTRY OF DEFENSE2 - NUVARIA CHIEF OF STAFF/

GHQ3 - NUVARIAN NAVY4 - NUVARIAN AIR FORCE5 - NUVARIAN ARMY6 - WEST NUVARIAN FLEET7 - 2ND NAVAL INF BDE, NAF8 - 7TH AIR FORCE GROUP, NAF9 - NUVARIAN SPF 10 - NUVARIAN JTF11 - CYBER WARFARE SYSTEM

CAPABILITY12 - MILITARY EXERCISE

FURIOUS OWL IN DEVORA13 – ISR ACTIVITIES IN WESTERN

LUZON AND NE LUZON

2

6

11

12

11

13

1

NODE ANALYSISNUVARIA

ECONOMIC

LEGEND:1 – ECONOMIC & TRADE

MINISTRY 2 - STRINGENT CUSTOMS

INSPECTIONS3 - OIL AND NATURAL GAS

EXPLORATION PLANS 4 - INDUSTRIAL SECTOR5 - AGRICULTURAL SECTOR6 - FREEZE IN HIRING OF

FILIPINO LABORERS7 - FISHING IN TAKLUBU REEF

AND LACUHA AREA

3

76

2

4 5

1

NODE ANALYSISNUVARIA

SOCIAL

LEGEND:1 – CITIZENS OF NUVARIA 2 - STRONG SENSE NATIONALISM 3 - ISLAMIC RELIGION 2

3

2

NODE ANALYSISNUVARIA

INFORMATIONAL

LEGEND:1 – MINISTRY OF INFORMATION2 - STATE CONTROLLED MEDIA3 - STRATEGIC

COMMUNICATIONS4 - TELECOMMUNICATIONS

COMPANIES AND FACILITIES

41

3

2

NODE ANALYSISNUVARIA

INFRASTRUCTURE

LEGEND:1 – POWER GENERATION &

DISTRIBUTION FACILITIES2 - SPODS3 - APODS4 - ROADNETS

1

43

4 9

8

7

53

10

1

2

6

11

12

1

3

76

2

4 5

62

31

4

5

8

7

1

2

3

13

11

2

1

4

3

2

4

1

3

SYSTEM NODES (SUB-SYSTEMS)

POLITICAL

PRESIDENT PURSUING TERRITORIAL CLAIMS FOREIGN AFFAIRS MINISTRY IN INTERNATIONAL FORA EXECUTIVE DEPARTMENTS SRN EMBASSY TO ASEAN ULTIMATE DIPLOMATIC SRN EMBASSY TO UN PROTEST (MAR 2012) WITHRAWAL OF SRN AMB TO PH

MILITARY

MINISTRY OF DEFENSE, NUVARIA CHIEF OF STAFF/ GHQ, NUVARIAN NAVY NUVARIAN AIR FORCE, NUVARIAN ARMY, WEST NUVARIAN FLEET 2ND NAVAL INF BDE, NAF; 7TH AIR FORCE GROUP, NAF; NUVARIAN SPF NUVARIAN JTF, CYBER WARFARE SYSTEM CAPABILITY, MILITARY EXERCISE FURIOUS OWL IN DEVORA, ISR ACTIVITIES IN WESTERN LUZON AND NE LUZON

ECONOMIC

ECONOMIC & TRADE MINISTRY , STRINGENT CUSTOMS INSPECTIONS, OIL AND NATURAL GAS EXPLORATION PLANS, INDUSTRIAL SECTOR AGRICULTURAL SECTOR, FREEZE IN HIRING OF FILIPINO LABORERS, FISHING IN TAKLUBU REEF AND LACUHA AREA

QUICK LOOK TABLE RECAPITULATION

SYSTEM NODES (SUB-SYSTEMS)

SOCIALCITIZENS OF NUVARIA , STRONG SENSE NATIONALISM , ISLAMIC RELIGION

INFRASTRUCTUREPOWER GENERATION & DISTRIBUTION FACILITIES, SPODS, APODS,

ROADNETS

INFORMATIONMINISTRY OF INFORMATION, STATE CONTROLLED MEDIA, STRATEGIC

COMMUNICATIONS, TELECOMMUNICATIONS COMPANIES AND FACILITIES

QUICK LOOK TABLE RECAPITULATION

EVALUATING THE ADVERSARY• THE THREAT (COMPOSITION,

DISPOSITION, TACTICS, TRAINING, LOGISTICS, OP EFFECTIVENESS, INTEL, COMMUNICATIONS, SUPPORT)

• THREAT LEADERSHIP & GOALS

• PREFERRED TACTICS & OPTIONS

• THREAT DOCTRINE & MODELS (GRAPHICS)

• ASSESSED HIGH VALUE TARGETS (HVT) & HIGH PAYOFF TARGETS (HPT)

• OVERALL THREAT CAPABILITIES

COMPOSITION

MOD

General Staff

ChiefArmedForces

XXXX XX

XXXXXXXXX

Fleet AirForces Army

ORGANIZATION OF NUVARIAN ARMED FORCES

XXX

Fleet

XX

Surface Forces

XX

NavalInfantry

X

Support Flotilla

X X X

1 2

X X

Frigate Flotilla

X

* Key ship types in the Nuvarian flotillas are the Polnocny-class landing ship , Whidbey Island –class LSD, Oliver Perry-class frigate, Kashin-class destroyer, and Durance-class oiler** Key combat systems in the naval infantry brigades are the AMX-10RC tank, M1985 tank, BTR-80 APC, BTR-D APC, BMD-2 APC, 2S1 Howitzer, 2S23 Howitzer, and 122 mm MRL

LSD Flotilla

Destroyer Flotilla 3

X

Polnocny Flotilla

NUVARIAN NAVY

X

II

I

II II III

II II II II I

I

II

SPT

II

BTR-80 BMD-2 AMX-10RC,M1985

2S1, 2S3 122mm

BRDM-2,M1985

AT-5B, AT-13, BMP-2M, BTR-D

2S6

Naval Infantry Brigade Organization

NUVARIAN NAVY

XXX

AirForces

X

Transport Wing

X

Ground Attack

X

Fighter Wing

X

Fighter Wing1 53 7

(An-12/C-130)(Su-24MK)(Su-27) (Mirage 2000)

* Each wing is comprised of three aircraft squadrons and a support squadron.** The fighter wings and ground attack wing each have 81 combat aircraft. The transport wing has 45 aircraft.

X

Fighter Wing

(Su-27)

X

Fighter Wing

(Mirage 2000)

X

Ground Attack

(Su-24MK)

642

NUVARIAN AIR FORCE

XXX

Army

1/2

(AMX-10P IFV, Chieftan Tk, 122/155mm How, AT-13 ATGM, W87 AGL)

X

3

X

(W-87 AGL, 84mm Gustaf RR, AT-13 ATGM, 100mm ATG, BRDM-2, Stinger SAM)

5/6

X

(BMD-2 IFV,BTR-D APC, 84mm Gustaf RR, AT-5B ATGM, SA-18 SAM)

4

X

(W-87 AGL, 84mm Gustaf RR, AT-13 ATGM, 100mm ATG, BRDM-2, Stinger SAM)

7

X

(RPG-7, SA-18 SAM)

SPF

NUVARIAN ARMY

ChiefArmedForces

XXX

XX

XX

MaritimeComponent

JTF

II

SOFComponent

X

AirComponent

Joint Task Force

XX

MaritimeComponent

XX

Strike Group

X

1

- 4 x LSD landing ships- 4 x Polnocny landing ships- 1 x Oliver Perry Frigate- 1 x Kashin Destroyer- 1 x Durance Oiler

- 3 x naval infantry battalions- 2 x airborne infantry battalions- 1 x light tank battalion- 1 x armored cavalry company- 1 x MRL battalion- 1 x air defense battalion- Combat support/service support

Maritime Component

X

I

II I

II II II I

I

II

SPT

II

II

BTR-80

II

AMX-10RC

122mm

BRDM-2,M1985

* Organic artillery and antitank battalions will not deploy, airborne battalions will deploy without BMD-1 vehicles, and tank battalion will deploy without M1985 tanks due to lift constraints. Brigade augmented with one naval infantry battalion and one airborne infantry battalion (Army)

2

ARTILLERY and ANTI-TANK

X

AirComponent

II

Ground Attack

II

31

27 x Su-24 (FENCER) ground attack aircraft

27 x Su-27 (FLANKER) fighter aircraft

II

Fighter Transport11 21

15 x An-12 (CUB) transport aircraft

* The FENCER and FLANKER squadrons are divided into three flights of 9 aircraft each. The CUB squadron is divided into three flights of 5 aircraft each.

AIR COMPONENT

* Each Special Purpose Forces (SPF) company can field up to 10 SPF teams. All teams are airborne capable.** Key weapons systems are the SA-18 SAM, RPG-7V ATGL, and AK-47 rifle.

II

SPF

I

SPF

I

SPF C

I

SPF

BA

SPECIAL PURPOSE FORCES

Sukhoi Su-27 Flanker

Sukhoi Su-24 FencerMirage 2000

ORDER OF BATTLE

NUVARIAN AIR FORCE

Kashin Class Destroyer

Oliver Hazard Perry Class FrigatePolnocny Class Medium Landing Ship

ORDER OF BATTLE

NUVARIAN NAVY

AMX 10

BMD 2 Infantry Fighting VehicleBTR D Armored Personnel Carrier (APC)

ORDER OF BATTLE

NUVARIAN ARMY

122mm D 30 Towed Howitzer

SA-18 (Igla) Man-Portable Surface- to-Air Missile (SAM)

84mm Carl Gustav Recoilless Rifle

ORDER OF BATTLE

NUVARIAN ARMY

DISPOSITION OF NUVARIAN FORCE

MARINES

AIRFORCE

NAVY

ENEMY HQS

ARMY

BRIGADES

BOMBER

FIGHTER

NAVAL SHIPS

Sabana Seca Naval Base

Camp Santiago Marine Base

Ramey Air Base

Buchanan Air Station

Fort Allen

Ministry of Defense (MOD) located in San Juan

Sabana Seca Naval Base

Camp Santiago Marine BaseFort

Allen

NUVARIA

Naval infantry HQ and Brigades

Fleet HQ and all naval ship units

Chief of Armed Forces and General Staff

AIR FORCE & ARMY

Air Forces HQ & the 5th & 6th Bomber Wings

Ramey Air Base

Buchanan Air Station

Fort Allen

NUVARIA

Army HQ and all Army Brigades

1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th

Fighter Wing

• PREPONDERANCE OF NUVARIAN FORCES IS THE NUVARIAN FLEET (NAVAL SHIPS AND NAVAL INFANTRY) CORRESPONDS TO THE MARITIME NATURE

OF NUVARIA

• NUVARIAN DOCTRINE: EXECUTION OF OFFENSIVE OPERATIONS AT

NIGHT TO MAXIMIZE COVER, STEALTH, AND THE ELEMENT OF SURPRISE

DOCTRINES and TTPs

• LARGE-SCALE JOINT EXERCISE FOCUSED ON NIGHT AMPHIBIOUS AND AIRMOBILE OPERATIONS

• “RAGING BULL”-(2011)-NE OF PHIL SEA INVOLVING FLEET, NAVAL INFANTRY BRIGADE, AIR WING, AND ARMY AIRBORNE BRIGADE

• AUGUST 2012: EXERCISE FOCUSED ON CAPABILITIES FOR NIGHT AMPHIBIOUS AND HELIBORNE OPS

• 21 JUNE 2014: “FURIOUS OWL” CONDUCTED NEAR THE BORDER OF NPS, 100 MI NORTH OF LACUHA

TRAINING

• IMPROVED JOINT CAPABILITIES OF THE NAF

INTEROPERABILITY OF NAVAL SHIP UNITS AND NAVAL INFANTRY IS VERY GOOD; BOTH FALL UNDER THE SAME FLEET COMMAND

INTEGRATION OF THE AIR FORCES AND ARMY INTO JOINT OPERATIONS NOT AS WELL DEVELOPED, BUT IS IMPROVING

NAF INCORPORATED U.S. DOCTRINE FOR JOINT EXPEDITIONARY WARFARE; FORCES ARE ALIGNED UNDER A JOINT TASK FORCE (JTF) THAT IS CREATED FOR A SPECIFIC MISSION OR CAMPAIGN

EFFECTIVENESS

• NAF HAS DEVELOPED A LIMITED POWER PROJECTION CAPABILITY, WITH A STRATEGIC REACH OF ROUGHLY 500 MILES (804 KM) NUVARIAN FLEET HAS ACHIEVED A “BLUE

WATER” CAPABILITY, BY ADDING OILERS TO THE FLEET

NUVARIAN AIR FORCE DOES NOT HAVE AN AIR-TO-AIR REFUELING CAPABILITY

EFFECTIVENESS

HIGH PROBABILITY OF NAF THREATENING PH INTEREST (DIRECTLY OR INDIRECTLY)

NAF WILL LAUNCH SERIES OF ATTACKS IN MAINLAND PHILIPPINES SHOULD THE PH GOVERNMENT DISAGREE TO CEDE LACUHA IS

POSSIBLE INVASION OF LACUHA ISLAND STRIKE VITAL INSTALLATIONS

INTEL REPORTS

NAF INCREASED THEIR LEVEL OF AIR AND MARITIME PATROL ACTIVITY NEAR THE SOUTH BASIN

MARCH 2014: UAVS WERE SPOTTED IN WESTERN AND NORTHEAST LUZON

2 LARGE FISHING VESSELS, BELIEVED TO BE SPY SHIPS, SPOTTED AROUND LACUHA IN THE PAST 2 MONTHS; THESE ARE NOW ANCHORED IN TAKLUBU REEF

INTEL REPORTS

• IN THE LAST SIX YEARS, DEFENSE BUDGET HAS CONTINUOUSLY INCREASED FROM 1.1% TO 6.5% TO SUSTAIN MODERNIZATION OF ITS MILITARY

SUPPORT

B. Threat Leadership & Goals

• DE LOPEZ’S ADMINISTRATION OPENLY DECLARED ITS RESOLUTE INTENTION TO ANNEX LACUHA ISLAND

• NEGOTIATE THE TURN-OVER OF LACUHA ISLAND TO NUVARIA, OTHERWISE “ALL OPTIONS ARE ON THE TABLE” FOR SRN

STRATEGIC

• NIGHT AMPHIBIOUS AND AIRMOBILE OPERATIONS

• JOINT OPERATIONS INVOLVING NUVARIAN FLEET, NAVAL INFANTRY BDE, AIR WING, AND ARMY AIRBORNE BDE

• HELIBORNE OPERATIONS

C. Preferred Tactics & Options

D. Threat Doctrine and Models

DOCTRINAL TEMPLATE

AIR FORCE

RAIDERS FLEET GROUND

FORCES

E. Assessed High Value Targets and High Payoff Targets

F. Overall Threat Capabilities

IDENTIFICATION OF ADVERSARY’S COG

COG ANALYSIS (ENEMY)

CENTER OF GRAVITY (STRATEGIC) CRITICAL CAPABILITIES

CRITICAL REQUIREMENTS CRITICAL VULNERABILITIES

PRESIDENT DE LOPEZ, SOCIALIST REPUBLIC OF NUVARIA

• CONDUCT AMPHIBIOUS OPERATIONS• CONDUCT AIRMOBILE OPERATIONS• NIGHT FIGHTING

• NAVAL TRANSPORT SHIPS• AIR TRANSPORT FOR AIRBORNE

TROOPS • AIR COVER• INTELLIGENCE, SURVEILLANCE & RECONNAISANCE (ISR)

• LOGISTICS SUPPORT FOR INVASION FORCE

• SLOCS

ENDSTATE: OCCUPATION OF LACUHA ISLAND

COG ANALYSIS (ENEMY)

CENTER OF GRAVITY (OPN’L) CRITICAL CAPABILITIES

CRITICAL REQUIREMENTS CRITICAL VULNERABILITIES

JOINT TASK FORCE, NUVARIAN ARMED FORCES

• CONDUCT AMPHIBIOUS OPERATIONS• CONDUCT AIRMOBILE OPERATIONS• NIGHT FIGHTING

• NAVAL TRANSPORT SHIPS• AIR TRANSPORT FOR AIRBORNE

TROOPS • AIR COVER• INTELLIGENCE, SURVEILLANCE & RECONNAISANCE (ISR)

• LOGISTICS SUPPORT FOR INVASION FORCE

• SLOCS

ENDSTATE: OCCUPATION OF LACUHA ISLAND

DETERMINE ADVERSARY COURSES OF ACTION

SITUATION

• IN 1993, NUVARIA (NUV) HAD OPENLY EXPRESSED OPPOSITION TO THE PH’S ADMINISTRATION OF LACUHA ISLAND.

• PH LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCIES (PHIL COAST GUARD, PNP AND BFAR) HAVE REGULATED THE FISHING ACTIVITIES AND INSTITUTED STRICT CAMPAIGN AGAINST ILLEGAL FISHING AND POACHING IN THE AREA.

SITUATION• DIPLOMATIC AND TRADING RELATIONS BETWEEN THE

TWO NATIONS HAVE NOT BEEN CORDIAL - NUVARIAN TERRITORIAL CLAIM OVER LACUHA ISLAND.

• NUVARIAN ARMED FORCES (NAF) MAY THREATEN PH INTERESTS EITHER DIRECTLY (BY THE THREAT OF INCURSIONS TO SOVEREIGNTY) OR INDIRECTLY (BY INTERFERING WITH PH TRADE ROUTES)

• SRN IMPLIED AN INTENT THAT SHOULD THE PH GOVERNMENT BE DEFIANT TO ITS REQUEST TO CEDE LACUHA ISLAND, NAF WILL LAUNCH SERIES OF ATTACKS IN MAINLAND PHILIPPINES.

Events

• In 2011, a large scale joint exercise is being conducted at the Devora Island, focusing on night amphibious and airmobile operations

• In August 2012, another exercise was conducted simulating the seizure of an island focusing on precision and enhancement of capabilities for night amphibious and heliborne operations

Events

• NAF mobilized 2 naval infantry brigades and Army airborne battalions to Devora Island in preparation for another joint exercise

• In August 2013, UAVs were spotted in two different areas, one in western Luzon and the other in Northeast Luzon

Events

• 2 large fishing vessels, believed to be a spy ship were spotted in various locations around Lacuha Island in the past 2 months

• On 21 September 2013, SRN announces a major military exercise codenamed “Furious Owl” near the border in the Northern Philippine Sea

Decision Support• DP: NAF conducts

major military exercise codenamed “Furious Owl” near the border in the Northern Philippine Sea

NAI: Taklubu reef

TAKLUBU REEF

ADVERSARY’S LIKELY OBJECTIVES AND ENDSTATE

• Socialist Republic of Nuvaria (SRN) through its NAF will invade Lacuha Island by force in case the GPH will not cede the island to them by diplomatic means

• To establish SRN political government and declare Lacuha Island as one of the provinces of SRN as NAF will force LGEs to pledge allegiance to SRN or through a temporary military junta

• Invasion of Lacuha Island without resistance will make a political statement that SRN is the rightful claimant nation of said territory

• COA 1 – NAF to invade Lacuha Island by surprise utilizing massive amphibious forces seizing vital installations and key terrains of the island and pushing inward aided by air and naval fires

• COA 2 – NAF to invade Lacuha Island utilizing airborne attack by Special Purpose Forces (SPF) targeting the swift grab of power over local governance and establish an active defense within the seats of government

• COA 3 – NAF to invade Lacuha Island and a portion of Northern Luzon without resistance from the AFP through rapid deployment of maritime invasion forces

FULL SET OF ADVERSARY COURSES OF ACTION

EVALUATE & PRIORITISE EACH COURSE OF ACTION

FACTORS COA 1 COA 2 COA 3

FEASABILITY 2 1 3

ACCEPTABILITY 2 1 3

SUSTAINABILITY 2 1 3

UNIQUENESS 2 1 3

CONSISTENCY 2 1 3

TOTAL 10 (2) 5 (1) 15 (3)

1 – MOST PRIORITY4 – LEAST PRIORITY

LACUHA ISLAND

NAF

SPFMOST LIKELY

COA 2NAF to invade Lacuha Island utilizing airborne attack by Special Purpose Forces (SPF) targeting the swift grab of power over local governance and establish an active defense within the seats of government

LACUHA ISLAND

NAF

SPFMOST LIKELY

COA 2Endstate – Swift overthrow of GPH Governance in Lacuha Island through the establishment of a “puppet/hostage government” or a temporary NAF military junta. Communication of Lacuha Province to mainland Philippines/ national government totally cut-off thereby gaining the initiative

that will allow the deployment of its follow-on amphibious forces supported by air and naval assets.

LACUHA ISLAND

NAF

SPFMOST LIKELY

I&W – Identify LGEs and other important personalities vulnerabilities for further exploitation, vital installations for sabotage operations, avenues/routes for land forces and key terrains.

COA 2

MOST DANGEROUS

LACUHA ISLAND

NAF JTF-LI

NAF

JTF-

NLPH

COA 3NAF will invade both Lacuha Island and a portion of Northern Luzon which will render the AFP divided into two (2) theatre of war.

MOST DANGEROUS

LACUHA ISLAND

NAF JTF-LI

NAF

JTF-

NLPH

Endstate – Invaded Lacuha Island without resistance from AFP and established an active defense in two fronts and ensure normalcy in the area through influencing the LGE/GAs/NGOs/POs to co-opt with SRN by means of a combined diplomatic pressures & terroristic actions.

COA 3

MOST DANGEROUS

LACUHA ISLAND

NAF JTF-LI

NAF

JTF-

NLPH

COA 3

I&W – Intensify measures to identify and neutralize resistance movements, ensure the sustained flow of logistical requirements of NAF, facilitate SRN political governance of the occupied island, prevent UN sanctions by political means/bargaining

CCIRs

Priority intelligence requirements (PIR)Adversary:• What is the current NAF composition and disposition?• What are the nearest available NAF units that can reinforce the

enemy in the AO?• Who are the Nuvarian nationals in Lacuha Island and their

activities?• Who are the NAF commanders/sympathizers that are

vulnerable to friendly force recruitment? • What is the current composition and disposition of

sympathizers of the SRN?• Who are among the political leaders in the area that are

supportive of the SRN? Why are they supportive of the SRN?

PIR Adversary (Continued):

• What is the likely start date of the proposed NAF EX?• What specific Vital Installations (VI) are the Nuvarians likely

to target?• When will the Nuvarians target these assets?• Will the Nuvarians target VI on the mainland?• What is the current NTM of the Nuvarian Naval Infantry

Units?• What NAF assets have been stockpiled at Fleet base Kailua

Kona?

CCIRs

Operational Environment:

• What are the expected weather conditions during the next month?

• What is the likely reaction of Lacuhan locals to any AFP element arriving in Lacuha?

• What size military force can Lacuha accommodate?

• Who are the key PNP and PPSC points of contact in Lacuha?

• What are the exact locations of the coral reefs in vicinity of Lacuha?

CCIRs

Friendly force information requirements (FFIR)

• What is the status/location of all intelligence capabilities in the AO?

• How will the weather impact ISR capabilities?

• What is the status of the HUMINT source network?

• Where are the current location and frequented places of LGEs?

• Who are the personnel susceptible to exploitation by NAF covert forces?

• What’s the most vulnerable police stations/detachments in the AO.

CCIRs