Jean-Raphael ChaponnièreMarc Lautier

Export catching-up in the Mediterranean Countries 

The weakness : The Textile-Clothing industrie in the MC

X % manuf

Employment % manuf

X-M/ PIB

Morocco 49% 32% 2.7%

Tunisia 52% 32% 5.4%

Egypt 35% 23% 0.5%

Syria 30% 25%

Turkey 25% 25% 4.3%

The problem : Chinese Competition

k kjkik

jk

k

ik

ij

EE

EECos

22 *

* Chinese potential competition in the Textiles-Clothing Ind.

To compare export structures of countries « i » and « j », we use their export vectors (structures) Eik et Ejk (k=1,...,n ). The “ distance ” between these vectors (structures) is given by the cosinus of their angle; varying from 0 (absolute difference) à 1 (absolute similitude).

2 Chinese export structures are calculated:

Direct (China) : Structure of EU Import; with quota

Undirect (Chine *) : structure of Japan Imports; quota-free

0 0,2 0,4 0,6 0,8 1

Turquie

Tunisie

Maroc

Egypte

Syrie

Chine *

Chine

Textiles-Clothing Export Structures calculated for 236 products.

The solution : Increase the Quality of Manufacturing Exports

How to measure the « quality » of an export structure ?

1) ECU : The indicator of Export Catching-Up

2) Results

3) Analysis of manufacturing export niches

1) ECU : Method

The idea : A manufacturing export is more advanced the higher the average income of its exporter.

ECU measures the gap between the overall quality of a country’s exports and the quality level of the most advanced country.

ECU is calculated in three steps : (i) We calculate a product quality index for each product

as the weighted average of the GDP per capita of the exporting countries.

We term it GDPproduct i :

GDPproduct i = Σ (GDP per capita country j * Xij/Xiw)

(With Xij, country “j” exports of product “i”, and Xiw the total (world)

exports of product “i”.)

(ii) We computes a ECU value for each country “j” :

ECUj value = Σ (GDPproduct i * Xij/Xtj)

(With Xtj the total exports of country “j”.)

(iii) We obtain ECU country j by calculating an index that ranks each country between 0 and 1 :

ECU country j = [ECUj value – Min ECU value] / [Max ECU value – Min ECU value]

(With “Min ECU value” as the lowest level of ECU value in the world, and “Max ECU value” as the highest.)

Implications

ECU is an indicator of the “quality” gap between two countries export structures (The larger the gap with the leading country, the more backward the export structure)

In the long run, ECU changes measures the speed of the catching up process of the country’s exports.

-

0,10

0,20

0,30

0,40

0,50

0,60

0,70

0,80

0,90

1,00

1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998

Mexique

Argentine

Brésil

Chili

2) Results

-

0,10

0,20

0,30

0,40

0,50

0,60

0,70

0,80

1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001

NPI 1

NPI 2

Chine

Inde

-

0,10

0,20

0,30

0,40

0,50

0,60

0,70

0,80

0,90

1,00

1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998

Egypte

Israël

Maroc

Tunisie

Turquie

NPI 2

Regional trends

-

0,1

0,2

0,3

0,4

0,5

0,6

0,7

0,8

0,9

1 967 1 970 1 973 1 976 1 979 1 982 1 985 1 988 1 991 1 994 1 997 2 000 2 003

Asie

PM

PM hor Turquie

AL

Chine

IRX

South-Korea

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%

1967

1988

2003

2000

ECU

Manuf Export / GDP

G6 : South-Korea, Export intensity and Exports Quality

0,0

0,1

0,1

0,2

0,2

0,3

0,3

0,4

0,4

0,5

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%

2003

1967

1999

IRX

X manuf /PIB

« Quantity » and « Quality » of Exports diverge in the MC

NICs 2 Tunisia

0

0,1

0,2

0,3

0,4

0,5

0,6

0,7

0,8

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

IRX

X manuf /PIB

3) Share of Export Niches in Manufacturing exports

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

Algérie

Egypte

Israël

Jordanie

Maroc

Syrie

Tunisie

Turquie

2003

1994

Exports Niches Dynamic

-100% -50% 0% 50% 100% 150%

Egypte

Maroc

Tunisie

Turquie

Nouvelles niches Renforcementdisparus et diminués

Niches Export Growth :

• Consolidation of the existing niches, no creation of new niches.

• Concentrated on:

- a limited number of products (50% from 2 products in Morocco, from 5 products in

Tunisia).

- The UE market.

Where the demand is not dynamic

No change No (trade) future !

• Export growth, but low quality of exports

• No process of export diversification

• Increase of Asian Competition in the EU