Post on 12-Jan-2015
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Facing the Fold Jay Ogilvy
Writing the Future WDC March 20, 2010
Overview
• The eclipse of utopia • Four stances toward historical 6me and futurity
• Facing the fold • Construc6ng scenarios • Communica6ng scenarios
• The scenaric stance
Stances toward 6me and futurity
• Tradi6onal, cyclical, 6me as “the moving image of eternity”
• Modernity, progressive, op6mis6c • Postmodernism, pessimis6c, decline • A fourth turning, facing the fold, a scenaric stance
Model of Aggression in Dogs
Behavior Surface Avoiding
Retreating A
Control Surface
Bifurcation Set
A B
C RAGE
Growling
Attacking B
Behavior
C
Facing the Fold
Behavior Surface Decline
Disaster A
Control Surface
Bifurcation Set
A B
C Optimism
Improvement
Utopia B
Behavior
C
“There is no reason for any individual to have a computer in their home.”
—Ken Olsen, president of DEC, 1977
“Internal sales forecast for PCs for the 1980s: 295,000. Actual sales for PCs in the 1980s: over 25,000,000.”
—IBM, 1979
“Anyone who thinks the ANC is going to run South Africa is living in cloud cuckoo land.” —Margaret Thatcher, 1987
Who would have guessed that . . .
• Apartheid would end in South Africa • Oil prices would drop in 1986 • The Cold War would end
• Iraq would raid Kuwait
What Are Scenarios?
• Scenarios are devices for ordering one’s percep6ons about alterna6ve environments in which one’s decisions might be played out. Their power comes from being focused.
• Effec6ve scenarios are always “customized to context.”
Focal issue
Key factors
Environmental forces
Cri5cal uncertain5es
Scenarios
Implica5ons and op5ons
Early indicators Scenario
logics
Developing Scenarios
uncertainty
importance
Step Four: Rank Cri6cal Uncertain6es
• Each team member has 25 virtual poker chips to spend
• Individually allocate chips according to:
X X X
Scenarios for healthcare reform
Step Six: Tell the Stories An ancient art form whose relevance and power
is being rediscovered today...
When a manager comes to me, I don’t ask him “What’s the problem?” I say, “Tell me a story.” That way I find out what the problem really is. —Avram Goldberg
• An ancient and enduring way of making and communicating meaning
• Underpins many professions—lawyers, historians, politicians… • Key in business context too—increasingly recognized by, e.g. 3M
• High cognitive and emotional impact, and memorable • Simplifies complexity
• Blends the familiar with the novel to create fresh perspectives
Some Familiar Plots o Winners and losers
o Crisis and response
o Good news and bad news
o Evolu6onary change
o Revolu6onary change
o Cycles
Elements of a Good Story
o Beginning, middle, and end o Timeless adventure o Quest o Coming of age
– Hero departs, experiences difficulty, performs a deed or experiences a revela6on, and is changed somehow
– Denouement, resolu6on
The Power of Stories
Name Species Hair/Fur Age Appetite Level Size
Preliminary Porridge
Assessment
Preliminary Mattress
Assessment
Goldi-locks Human Blonde 8 Moderate Petite N/A N/A
Papa Bear Brown 12 High Big Too Hot Too Hard
Mama Bear Tawny 11 Moderate Medium Too Cold Too Soft
Baby Bear Red-Brown 3 Low Small Just Right Just Right
The Power of Stories Onceuponatime,therewasalittlegirlnamedGoldilocks.Shewentforawalkintheforest.Prettysoon,shecameuponahouse.Sheknockedand,whennooneanswered,shewalkedrightin.Atthetableinthekitchen,therewerethreebowlsofporridge.Goldilockswashungry.Shetastedtheporridgefromthefirstbowl.
“Thisporridgeistoohot!”sheexclaimed…
Virtues and advantages of the scenaric stance
• An acute sense of freedom • Intellectual honesty • Deliberate intent with a sense of the stakes
• Emo6onal depth • A subtle frame of mind
Thank you Jay Ogilvy
j.a.ogilvy@gmail.com