Janet Larsen, Director of ResearchMay 2008

Growing Food InsecurityFood-to-Fuel and Other Challenges

Corn Futures Prices, January 1999 Through April 2008

Source: CBOT, futures.tradingcharts.com

Wheat Futures Prices, January 1999 Through April 2008

Source: CBOT, futures.tradingcharts.com

Soybean Futures Prices, January 1999 Through April 2008

Source: CBOT, futures.tradingcharts.com

Rice Prices, 1985 – 2008(Monthly 100% Grade B)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

Aug-85 Apr-88 Jan-91 Oct-93 Jul-96 Apr-99 Jan-02 Sep-04 Jun-07 Mar-10

Apr 08

Source: USDA ERS

Dol

lars

per

Ton

Food Price Unrest Around the WorldSeptember 2007 – May

2008

Compiled by Earth Policy Institute

Top Grain Top Grain ExportersExporters

Quantity (million Quantity (million tons)tons)

United StatesUnited States 106.1106.1

ArgentinaArgentina 28.128.1

CanadaCanada 18.618.6

E.U.E.U. 14.314.3

RussiaRussia 13.113.1

AustraliaAustralia 10.610.6

ThailandThailand 9.39.3

KazakhstanKazakhstan 9.09.0

BrazilBrazil 8.78.7

VietnamVietnam 5.05.0

Top Corn Top Corn ExportersExporters

Quantity (million Quantity (million tons)tons)

United StatesUnited States 62.062.0

ArgentinaArgentina 15.015.0

BrazilBrazil 9.09.0

ParaguayParaguay 1.61.6

UkraineUkraine 1.21.2

ChinaChina 1.01.0

South AfricaSouth Africa 0.80.8

IndiaIndia 0.50.5

CanadaCanada 0.40.4

E.U.E.U. 0.30.3

Top Wheat Top Wheat ExportersExporters

Quantity (million Quantity (million tons)tons)

United StatesUnited States 32.532.5

CanadaCanada 14.514.5

RussiaRussia 12.012.0

ArgentinaArgentina 11.011.0

E.U.E.U. 9.09.0

AustraliaAustralia 8.08.0

KazakhstanKazakhstan 8.08.0

UkraineUkraine 5.25.2

ChinaChina 2.52.5

TurkeyTurkey 1.51.5

Top Rice Top Rice ExportersExporters

Quantity (million Quantity (million tons)tons)

ThailandThailand 9.09.0

VietnamVietnam 5.05.0

United StatesUnited States 3.53.5

IndiaIndia 3.43.4

PakistanPakistan 2.92.9

ChinaChina 1.31.3

EgyptEgypt 1.11.1

UruguayUruguay 0.80.8

ArgentinaArgentina 0.50.5

CambodiaCambodia 0.50.5

Red circles indicate export restrictions in place as of May 2008

Source: EPI, USDA, FT

Top Ten Grain Importers: Share of Consumption from Imports

Source: USDA

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Taiwan Yemen Cuba J apan Malaysia SouthKorea

SaudiArabia

Colombia Algeria Tunisia

World Grainland Area

500

550

600

650

700

750

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Source: USDA

Mill

ion

Hec

tare

s

World Grainland Area Per Person

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Source: USDA, UN

Hect

are

s

World Irrigated Area

Source: FAO, Worldwatch

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Mill

ion

Hec

tare

s

World Irrigated Area Per Person

Source: FAO, Worldwatch, UN

Squ

are

Met

ers

0

100

200

300

400

500

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

World Grain Yield Annual Increase by Decade

Source: USDA, Worldwatch

1950-1960

1990-2000

1980-1990

1970-1980

1960-1970

2000-2007

Ave

rage

Ann

ual I

ncre

ase

(per

cent

)

World Grain Balance

Source: USDA

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Mill

ion

Ton

s

Production

Consumption

World Grain Carryover Stocks

Source: USDA

Mill

ion

Ton

s

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

World Grain Carryover Stocks as Days of Consumption

Source: USDA

Day

s

U.S. Grain Use for Fuel Ethanol

2008 ethanol use is a projection by Earth Policy Institute

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Source: EPI, USDA, RFA

Mill

ion

Ton

s

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

U.S. Grain Production and Use for Ethanol

*

* 2008 ethanol use is a projection by Earth Policy Institute

Mill

ion

Ton

s

Source: EPI, USDA, RFA

Grain Production

Grain for Ethanol

Gasoline and Ethanol in the United States

Ethanol supplied less than 4% of gasoline consumption in 2007…

… but used 20% of the U.S. grain harvest.

Source: EPI, USDA, EIA

For more information:

Lester R. Brown, Plan B 3.0: Mobilizing to Save Civilization (New York: W.W. Norton & Company, 2008), www.earthpolicy.org.

C. Ford Runge and Benjamin Senauer, “How Biofuels Could Starve the Poor,” Foreign Affairs, May/June 2007.

Financial Times, The Global Food Crisis, interactive map, www.ft.com.

The Fund for Peace and Foreign Policy, “The Failed States Index 2007,” Foreign Policy, July/August 2007.

U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization, Crop Prospects and Food Situation, no. 2, April 2008.

Robert B. Zoellick, President of the World Bank Group, “A Challenge of Economic Statecraft,” Speech at the Center for Global Development (Washington, DC: 2 April 2008).

ReferencesChicago Board of Trade (CBOT), Market Recap Reports, at www.cbot.com.

Lester R. Brown, “World Facing Huge New Challenge on Food Front,” Plan B Update, 16 April 2008, with additional information at www.earthpolicy.org.

Financial Times (FT), “The Rising Cost of Food,” www.ft.com/foodprices, updated 5 May 2008.

Renewable Fuel Association (RFA), “Ethanol Biorefinery Locations,” at www.ethanolrfa.org/industry/locations.

U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), FAOSTAT, electronic database at faostat.fao.org.

United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), Production Supply and Distribution, electronic database at www.fas.usda.gov/psdonline.

USDA Economic Research Service (ERS), Rice Yearbook 2007 (Washington, DC: November 2007).

USDA, Feedgrains Database, electronic database at www.ers.usda.gov/Data/FeedGrains.

U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration (EIA), Biofuels in the U.S. Transportation Sector, at www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/analysispaper/biomass.html.

www.earthpolicy.orgwww.earthpolicy.org