Post on 27-Mar-2015
Jan RutkowskiWorld Bank
SarajevoOctober 27-28
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1. The shift in labor demand: from less to more skilled jobs
2. Industrial restructuring is an important source of a skills mismatch in transition economies
3. Hard skills are not enough: soft skills play a critical role
4. Skills mismatch may become an obstacle to modernization and growth of transition economies
5. Skills ≠ diplomas need to develop better measures of skills supply and demand
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World Bank studies on labor market skills in Europe and Central Asia◦ Regional report◦ Country studies◦ Planned surveys of skills supply and demand
Main findings of country studies◦ FYR Macedonia◦ Croatia◦ Poland
Policy response to the skills gap
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Demand for skills in ECA Education and the supply of skills to the
ECA market Resolving the skills shortage in the ECA
region: A policy framework Managing for results at the pre-university
level of education Managing for results in the tertiary
education sector Advancing adult learning in ECA
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Ukraine labor demand study (2009) Croatia: Reaching and sustaining higher
rates of economic growth (2009) Are Skills Constraining Growth in Bosnia and
Herzegovina (2009) Demand for skills in FYR Macedonia (2010) Fuelling growth and competitiveness in
Poland through employment, skills and innovation (2011)
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World-wide project on the supply of and demand for skills
Household based standardized survey of the supply of skills
Employer based standardized survey of the demand for skills
WB countries to be covered: Macedonia and Serbia
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Macedonia Poland
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
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Professionals and managers
Technicians Clerks Service and sales workers
Skilled agriculutural workers
Skilled manual Unskilled manual
perc
enta
ge p
oint
s
Changes in employment shares by occupationMacedonia FYR, 2001-2006
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
Professionals and managers
Technicians Clerks Service and sales workers
Skilled agriculutural workers
Skilled manual Unskilled manualpc
t poi
nts
Changes in employment shares by occupationPoland, 1995 - 2006
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0.7
0.8
0.9
1
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1996 2006
Wage Growth by Occupation(average wage growth = 1)
Bulgaria 1996 - 2006
Managers and officials
Professionals
Technicians
Clerks
Service and sales
Craftsmen
Machine operators & assemblersElementary occupations
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Between occupational groups◦ Too many social scientists, too few engineers◦ Too many clerks, too few nurses and electricians
Within occupational group (skills gap)◦ Inadequate technical (job specific) skills◦ Inadequate cognitive skills ◦ Inadequate behavioral & social (soft) skills◦ Too much theoretical knowledge, too little
practical skills
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Only proxies for skills: education, occupation
But skills ≠diplomas, educated ≠ skilled Labor market indicators
◦ Unemployment rate: excess supply◦ Vacancy rate: unmet demand◦ U/V ratio (by education, occupation)
Employer surveys Tracer surveys of graduates
◦ Poland: obligatory for tertiary education institutions
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0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
Managers Professionals Technicians Clerks Service and sales workers
Agriculture Craftsmen Machine operators & assemblers
Elementary occupations
perc
ent
Job vacancy rate by occupationPoland 2005-2008
2005 2006 2007 2008
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Skills Difference in the “importance” index (ranges from 1 to 5)
Foreign language .54
Use of ICT .52
Problem solving skills .27
Technical/vocational skills (basic & advanced)
.25
Planning and organization .23
Self-management & entrepreneurship
.21
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Educational system more responsive to the changing labor market needs◦ Broad and transferable skills to prepare workers for the world of growing
job and occupational mobility◦ Interactions with employers◦ Life long learning
More emphasis on development of soft skills◦ Work attitudes and behavioral skills as important for employability as
hard technical skills◦ Educational system focuses on equipping students with cognitive &
technical skills rather than soft skills◦ Closing the skills gap will require reorientation of educational and
training policy Good and accessible labor market information to guide
career choices◦ As opposed to manpower planning
Better information on skills supply and demand◦ Employer surveys, tracer surveys of graduates, survey of skills
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