Issues

Energy Future: Issues• A high rate of energy consumption has environmental impact

– Global Warming is predicted, with a variety of side effects• Human-induced linkage evidence is mounting

– There may be increased potential for sudden, unpredictable change• Fossil fuel consumption can produce serious direct health

side effects, predominantly respiratory illnesses.• Key energy producing countries have their own domestic

agenda and issues– May not be a collaborative or predictable supplier

• There are long delays between the time of an impulse into the environment and the time …– Its effects are known– Its effects “flush” through.

• There is a “Catch-22” problem regarding new technology and infrastructure (i.e. getting investment before a crisis)

A Piece Of The Data Continuum

Mauna Loa "Keeting Graph"

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http://cdiac.esd.ornl.gov/trends/co2/sio-mlo.htm

The “Keeting Curve”Mauna Loa, CO2 Concentrations

The Carbon Cycle

Atmosphere

ConsumedFuel

Land

Ocean

92.3

60.0

62.3

90.0

6.3

Units: Gross Tons Of Carbon Per YearSource: Turkenburg

The Kyoto Protocol seeks to reduce total emissions by about 0.2

A 1000 Year Look At Constituents Of The Earth’s Atmosphere

(BP 1950)

CO

2 C

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ntr

ati

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(p

pm

v)

Projected levels of atmospheric CO2 during the next 100 years would be higher than at anytime in the last 440,000 yrs

Projected levels of atmospheric CO2 during the next 100 years would be higher than at anytime in the last 440,000 yrs

The Land and Oceans have warmed

Source: IPCC

Global mean surface temperatures have increased

Source: IPCC

The El-Nino phenomena leads to floods and droughts throughout the tropics and subtropics

El Niño years

La Niña years

The frequency, persistence and magnitude of El-Nino events have increased in the last

20 years

Source: IPCC

Precipitation patterns have changed

Source: IPCC

Sea Levels have risen

Source: IPCC

Examples include:

• reduction in Arctic sea ice extent and thickness in summer

• non-polar glacier retreat

• earlier flowering and longer growing and breeding season for plants and animals in the Northern Hemisphere

• poleward and upward (altitudinal) migration of plants, birds, fish and insects; earlier spring migration and later departure of birds in the Northern Hemisphere

• increased incidence of coral bleaching

Changes in temperature have been associated with changes in physical

and biological systems

Sea Ice Extent Has Been Shrinking

This figure illustrates September ice extent (millions of square kilometers) for the period covered by the satellite data record. A line fit to the data points shows that over the years 1979 to 2002, there has been a trend toward lower summer minimums. As this figure illustrates, there is considerable variability in minimum extent from year to year.

Source: NSIDC News, http://nsidc.org/seaice/news.html

Shrinking Polar Cap: 2002Satellite data show the area of the Arctic Ocean covered by sea ice in September 2002. This figure shows lower concentrations of ice floes than average for the period 1987-2001 in blue, and higher concentrations in yellow. The lavender line indicates a more typical ice extent (the median for 1987-2001). The white circle at the North Pole is the area not imaged by the satellite sensor.

Source: NSIDC News, http://nsidc.org/seaice/news.html

Mount Kilimanjaro Ice Cap Shrinks: Soot?

• 80% of ice is gone (since 1900); formed 11000 years ago• Scientists (Hansen and Nazarenko) are finding warm winters rather

than warm summers to be the cause• Models tend to show that 25% of warming is caused by soot on

(sometimes very heavy) snow

February 17, 1993February 21, 2000

The IPCC Makes The Case For Human Inducement Of Climate Change

Source: IPCC

Land areas are projected to warm more than the oceans with the greatest warming

at high latitudes

Annual mean temperature change, 2071 to 2100 relative to 1990: Global Average in 2085 = 3.1oC

Source: IPCC

Some areas are projected to become wetter, others drier with an overall

increase projected

Annual mean precipitation change: 2071 to 2100 Relative to 1990

Source: IPCC

Projected concentrations of CO2 during the 21st century are two to four times

the pre-industrial level

Source: IPCC

Scientists appear to be focusing on limiting the levels to 2X pre-industrial levels or 550 ppm

Stabilization of the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide will

require significant emissions reductions(Target 550 PPM is a general scientist

goal)

Is there potential for environmental catastrophe?

• Examples:– West Antarctica Ice Sheet Collapse– Rapid species isolation and extinction– Disruption of the themohaline circulation

West Antarctica Ice Sheet Collapse?

• See: http://www.co2science.org/subject/w/summaries/wais.htm

• Most researchers believe this to be very unlikely, but– 5% chance of happening, per study led by British

Antarctic Survey– One meter ocean level rise within a century; 5

meters over several hundred years.

• Similar concerns apply to the ice sheet covering Greenland.

Will there be mass extinctions?• From Nature, January 8, 2004: “Many plant

and animal species are unlikely to survive climate change”

• 15–37% of a sample of 1,103 land plants and animals would eventually become extinct as a result of climate changes expected by 2050. – For some of these species there will no longer be

anywhere suitable to live.– Others will be unable to reach places where the

climate is suitable.

• A rapid shift to technologies that do not produce greenhouse gases, combined with carbon sequestration, could save 15–20% of species from extinction.

The themohaline circulation could be disrupted by climate change

The Big Picture

• To stabilize at 550 PPM of C02 (twice the pre-industrial level and one that produces roughly 2-4o C. of temperature rise) would require approx. 20 TW of carbon free power.

• In other words, the projection is that we will need as much as twice as much carbon-free power by 2050 than the total power produced, by all sources, globally, at present.

Source: Nathan Lewis

Projected Carbon-Free Primary Power

Source: Nathan Lewis

Long Time Periods Are Required For

CO2 Pulse To Be Absorbed

Source: IPCC

Qualitative Impact of A “Carbon Pulse”

Source: IPCC

The cost of compliance increases with lower stabilization levels

Tri

llio

n s o

f U

S$

Source: IPCC

Projected mitigation costs are sensitive

to the assumed emissions baseline

Source: IPCC

Political Tipping Points Could Force Accelerated Change

• Examples:– Turbulence in Saudi Arabia– Caspian Sea politics– China becoming the most powerful energy negotiator– Nuclear war in Middle East– Persistent disruption of key oil pipelines– Terrorist attack on LNG infrastructure– Costs of oil after peak of production?

• Costs of recovery?

– Terrorism fueled by hopelessness in energy “have not” countries

Key Oil Produces Have Potentially Unstable Governments World Oil Production 2002 (Colored By Political Stability (BKR))

Malaysia

Mexico

Oman

Russia

Syria

US

Norw ay

UK

North Sea

AngolaChina

Colombia

Ecuador

Algeria

Indonesia

Iran

Iraq

Kuw ait1

Libya

Nigeria

Qatar

Saudi Arabia1

UAE

Venezuela

Brazil

Egypt

IndiaGabon

AustraliaArgentina

Canada

Other1

Source: EIA (BKR opinion on stability)

The Gap Between Rich And Poor Grows

• Energy is capital intensive– Poor countries do not have the resources– Impact: burn down the forests.– 2 B people rely on primary energy sources (e.g.

wood).– Energy costs in poorer countries range from 12-26

percent (vs a few percent in U.S.).

• Inequality between rural and urban. – Good(?) news is that people are moving to urban

areas.

Source: Geller

Pollution Effects• 500,000 deaths are attributed to air quality issues

each year.– Earth Policy Institute claims 3M lives lost/yr. (vs 1M lost to

traffic fatalities)– EPI claims 70,000 deaths in U.S./yr. from pollution (vs.

40,000 traffic deaths)

• 5% of deaths in urban areas are air quality related.• Almost 290,000 premature deaths each year in

China, costing $50B and 7% of GDP• Ontario estimates that pollution costs $1B in

medical/hospital fees and absenteeism for 11.9M people – Scaled to the U.S. this would be about $30B/yr.

Source: EPI

Barriers For New Technologies

• Lack of money or financing • Misplaced incentives• Pricing and tax barriers• Political obstacles• Regulatory and utility barriers• Limited supply infrastructure for energy efficient

products• Quality problems (new technology doesn’t live up to

claims)• Insufficient information and training