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Scottish Public Opinion Monitor February 2014
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Independence referendum
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Q. Should Scotland be an independent country?
Referendum voting intention
Base: All (1,001); all certain to vote (799). Data collected among 1,001 Scottish adults 16+, 20th– 25th February 2014
Yes 29%
No 55%
Undecided 16%
All voters
Yes 32%
No 57%
Undecided 11%
Certain to vote
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Q. Should Scotland be an independent country?
Referendum voting intention – recent trend
Base: All certain to vote. Data collected among c1,000 Scottish adults
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14
No
Yes
Undecided
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Q. Should Scotland be an independent country?
Voting intention excluding ‘don’t knows’
Base: All (842); all certain to vote (691). Data collected among 1,001 Scottish adults 16+, 20th– 25th February 2014
Yes 35%
No 65%
All voters
Yes 36%
No 64%
Certain to vote
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Q. Should Scotland be an independent country?
Voting intention amongst those certain to vote and
definitely decided how they will vote
Base: All certain to vote and definitely decided (572). Data collected among c1,000 Scottish adults
Yes 33%
No 67%
All definitely decided and certain to vote
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Feb-13 May-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Feb-14
No
Yes
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45% Scots who…
may not vote (22%)
will vote but are undecided (9%)
will vote but may change their vote (14%)
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31%
23%
Yes voters No voters
Voters who may change their mind
Q. Should Scotland be an independent country?
Floating voters
Base: All giving a voting intention but may change their mind (215); all undecided (159). Data collected among 1,001 Scottish adults 16+, 20th– 25th
February 2014
Yes 39%
No 29%
Undecided 33%
All undecided voters
Which way
are you
inclined to
vote?
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Data taken from MORI and Ipsos MORI polling (1999-07 data taken from Scottish Social Attitudes Survey)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 2013
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Base: All certain to vote (799). Data collected among 1,001 Scottish adults 16+, 20th– 25th February 2014
38%
54%
Yes
No
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Men Women
% voting Yes
27%
59%
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30%
57% 12%
Voting intention by age group
Base: All certain to vote (799). Data collected among 1,001 Scottish adults 16+, 20th– 25th February 2014
Yes
No
33%
51%
45%
43%
12%
28%
63% 9%
16-24 25-34
35-54 55+ 0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
16-24* 25-34 35-54 55+
*Jan 2012 – May 2013 this was 18-24 year olds
% voting Yes
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here Voting intention by levels of deprivation
Base: All certain to vote (799). Data collected among 1,001 Scottish adults 16+, 20th– 25th February 2014
41%
47%
20%
71%
Most deprived areas Least deprived areas
Yes
No
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Most deprived areas Least deprived areas
% voting Yes
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94% 13%
82% 5%
Voting intention by party support
Base: All certain to vote (799). Data collected among 1,001 Scottish adults 16+, 20th– 25th February 2014
Yes
No
76%
14%
11% 76%
13%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
SNP Lab Con Lib Dem
% voting Yes
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Currency
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As you may know, the Scottish Government has proposed that an independent Scotland would continue to use the pound within a currency union with the rest
of the UK. The three main UK-wide political parties recently announced that they would not enter into a currency union with an independent Scotland. Based on
this announcement, what impact, if any will this have on how you plan to vote in the referendum? Will you be more likely to vote ‘Yes’, more likely to vote ‘No’ or
will it make no difference?
Currency
Base: All. Data collected among 1,001 Scottish adults 16+, 20th– 25th February 2014
13%
30% 56%
More likely tovote YesMore likely tovote NoMake nodifferenceDon't know
16%
34%
44%
All
Undecided
voters
14%
37%
47% May
change
mind
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• This presents the topline results from Scotland
• Results are based on a survey of 1,001 respondents
(adults aged 16+) conducted by telephone
• Fieldwork dates: 20th– 25th February 2014
• Data are weight by: age, sex and working status using
census data; tenure using SHS data; and public-private
sector employment using Scottish Government Quarterly
Public Sector Employment series data
• Where results do not sum to 100%, this may be due to
computer rounding, multiple responses, or the exclusion of
“don’t know” categories
• Results are based on all respondents (1,001) unless
otherwise stated
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Thank you mark.diffley@ipsos.com | 0131 240 3269
christopher.mclean@ipsos.com | 0131 240 3264 @IpsosMORIScot