Post on 07-Jan-2016
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IPCC Working Group I Summary For
Policymakers: The Physical Science Basis
Assembled by Brenda Ekwurzel
March 2, 2007 www.ucsusa.org
Slides for Communicating IPCC
Observed Impacts: Global and Minnesota
Future Impacts: What are the Risks?
Why: Climate Drivers
Future Choices: Opportunities
Projected climate change for the second half of this century depends on the level of future heat-trapping emissions.
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Source: IPCC Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis—Summary for Policymakers.
Global Average Surface Temperature Change relative to 1980-1999
°C
1°F 13.5°F
Minnesota is in a region at risk for large consequences from a higher emissions scenario.
A2 IPCC scenarioaveraged over 2090–2099
Future Risks
Source: IPCC Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis—Summary for Policymakers.
Future Risks
Global Average Surface Temperature Change relative to 1980-1999
°C
1°F 13.5°F
Minnesota can avoid experiencing even the lowest emissions scenario projections of the IPCC if the
world follows deep reductions targets.
B1 IPCC scenarioaveraged over 2090–2099
Observed Impacts: Global and Minnesota
Future Impacts: What are the Risks?
Why: Climate Drivers
Future Choices: Opportunities
Observed Impacts: Global and Minnesota
Future Impacts: What are the Risks?
Why?: Climate Drivers
Future Choices: Opportunities
Winters are getting shorter.
Annual average temperatures are growing warmer.
The duration of lake ice cover is decreasing as air and water temperatures rise.
Heavy precipitation events, both rain and snow, are becoming more common.
Source: Confronting Climate Change in the Great Lakes Region 2005 (UCS and ESA)http://www.ucsusa.org/greatlakes/
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Observed Impacts: Global and Minnesota
Future Impacts: What are the Risks?
Why: Climate Drivers
Future Choices: Opportunities
Source: IPCC Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis—Summary for Policymakers.
Changes in Heat-trapping Gases from Ice-Core and Modern Data
Source: IPCC Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis—Summary for Policymakers.
Since the dawn of the industrial era, carbon dioxide and other key heat-trapping gases have increased at a rate that is “very likely to have been unprecedented in more than 10,000 years.”
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CO2
CH4
N2O
Emissions
Source: IPCC Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis—Summary for Policymakers.
Global Average Surface Temperature
The IPCC finds that it is “very likely” that emissions of heat-trapping gases from human activities have caused “most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures sincethe mid-20th century.”
Human Responsibility forClimate Change
Source: IPCC Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis—Summary for Policymakers.