Post on 13-Jan-2016
description
US Army Combined Arms Center
IPB in Counterinsurgency
(Part IV Insurgency COA Analysis)
US Army Combined Arms Center
DetermineThreatCourses of Action
Define theOperationalEnvironment
Evaluate the Threat
Describe theEnvironmentalEffects
23
4 1
IPB 4
Assess the insurgent’s strategy and forecast his MD/MP COA (add to IPB I-II overlay to visualize and the enemy’s campaign plan and how he gains passive/active support of the population)
Visualize the 3 x Root Causes by community or specific group depicted in the Overlay from IPB I
The enemy’s Strategy and capabilities (IPB III) to use Root Causes (IPB II) to specifically target and leverage the human and physical terrain (IPB I) to accomplish MD/MP COAs. In short this is the enemy’s campaign plan.
Visualize the specific groups that defines the limits of the AO/AI by looking at the physical and human geography using ASCOPE (overlay). Identify each specific community or group.
US Army Combined Arms Center
"the hub of all power and movement, on
which everything depends, ... the point against
which all the energies should be directed"
- Carl von Clausewitz “On War”
Center of Gravity
US Army Combined Arms Center
Group Location Purpose
Insurgency COA AnalysisAKA COIN COI Analysis
US Army Combined Arms Center
Group Location Purpose
Insurgency COA AnalysisAKA COIN COI Analysis
US Army Combined Arms Center
Insurgent’s Desired Political End state
2nd Bn (US) /1st BN IA AO
InfiltratePolitical
Leadership
PoliticalWing
HarassingRocketsMortars
Attack MNF-IForces
Infiltrate IA
COICOI COI COICOI COI COICOI COI COICOI COICOICOI COI COICOI COI COICOI COI COICOI COI
Insurgency
POLITICAL MILITARY
TribalClass
Division
ReligiousClass
Division
InfluenceEducation
SOCIAL ECONOMIC
Interdict Power lines
DisruptConstruct.
Effort
Disrupt SupplyLines
DisruptElections
Strategic End State
Operational OBJ Operational OBJ
Lines of Operation
Lines of Operation
US Army Combined Arms Center
Insurgent’s Desired Political End state
2nd Bn (US) /1st BN IA AO
InfiltratePolitical
Leadership
PoliticalWing
HarassingRocketsMortars
Attack MNF-IForces
Infiltrate IA
COICOI COI COICOI COI COICOI COI COICOI COICOICOI COI COICOI COI COICOI COI COICOI COI
FRE
POLITICAL MILITARY
TribalClass
Division
ReligiousClass
Division
InfluenceEducation
SOCIAL ECONOMIC
Interdict Power lines
DisruptConstruct.
Effort
Disrupt SupplyLines
DisruptElections
Strategic End State
Operational OBJ Operational OBJ
Lines of Operation
Lines of Operation
US Army Combined Arms Center
COIN COI TEMPLATE
Strategic EndState
Strategic Directives(Lines of Operation PMSE)
Operational Objectives(From PMSE)
Location(Div, Bde, Bn)
Center of Influence
COI Enabler
PrincipalFacilitator
CounterFacilitator
US Army Combined Arms Center
FREAIF Group
PurposeLocation
Strategic EndState
Strategic Directives(Lines of Operation PMSE)
Operational Objectives(From PMSE)
Location(Div, Bde, Bn)
Center of Influence
COI Enabler
PrincipalFacilitator
CounterFacilitator
ENEMY COINCOI TEMPLATE
US Army Combined Arms Center
FREAIF Group
PurposeLocation
Strategic EndState
Strategic Directives(Lines of Operation PMSE)
Operational Objectives(From PMSE)
Location(Div, Bde, Bn)
Center of Influence
COI Enabler
PrincipalFacilitator
CounterFacilitator
ENEMY COINCOI TEMPLATE
US Army Combined Arms Center
Insurgent’s Desired Political End state
2nd Bn (US) /1st BN IA AO
InfiltratePolitical
Leadership
PoliticalWing
HarassingRocketsMortars
Attack MNF-IForces
Infiltrate IA
COICOI COI COICOI COI COICOI COI COICOI COICOICOI COI COICOI COI COICOI COI COICOI COI
FRE
POLITICAL MILITARY
TribalClass
Division
ReligiousClass
Division
InfluenceEducation
SOCIAL ECONOMIC
Interdict Power lines
DisruptConstruct.
Effort
Disrupt SupplyLines
DisruptElections
Strategic End State
Operational OBJ Operational OBJ
Lines of Operation
Lines of Operation
US Army Combined Arms Center
Enemy COIN Center of Influence Analysis
COIEnabler
Principal Facilitator
CounterFacilitator
Center of InfluenceCOG
CGE CGE CGE
PF PF PF PF PF PF
CF CF CF CF CF CF CF CF CF
What thing or aspect of the population is needed to get, sway or maintain the COI to support and gain support for their goal of disrupting the elections (e.g. support of Muhammad Ahmad Muhammad - local tribal sheik)
Finding COI: What aspect of the population does the enemy need to achieve freedom of movement, security, and support in their goal of disrupting the elections in Bn AO (e.g. local Sunni population)
What action does the enemy need to do to get the COI Enabler. (e.g. coerce Muhammad Ahmad Muhammad by bribing, threaten, kidnapping family member)
What can the friendly do to counter the enemy’s Principal Facilitator. (e.g. engage Muhammad Ahmad Muhammad, provide security)
US Army Combined Arms Center
Friendly COIN Center of Influence Analysis
Center of InfluenceCOG
CGE CGE CGE
PF PF PF PF PF PF
CF CF CF CF CF CF CF CF CF
What thing or aspect of the population is needed to get, sway, or maintain the COI to deny the enemy the ability to disrupt the elections freedom of movement of the enemy in Bn AO (e.g. support of Muhammad Ahmad Muhammad - local tribal sheik)
Finding COI; What aspect of the population is needed to limit the enemy’s support in their goal of disrupting the elections in Bn AO (e.g. local Sunni population)
Thing or action do we need to get theCOI Enabler. (e.g. engage and provide economic incentives to Muhammad Ahmad Muhammad and his tribe)
What can the enemy do to counter the friendly’s Principal Facilitator. (e.g. kidnap a member of Muhammad Ahmad Muhammad’s family)
COIEnabler
Principal Facilitator
CounterFacilitator
US Army Combined Arms Center
Insurgent’s Desired Political End state
2nd Bn (US) /1st BN IA AO
InfiltratePolitical
Leadership
PoliticalWing
HarassingRocketsMortars
Attack MNF-IForces
Infiltrate IA
COICOI COI COICOI COI COICOI COI COICOI COICOICOI COI COICOI COI COICOI COI COICOI COI
FRE
POLITICAL MILITARY
TribalClass
Division
ReligiousClass
Division
InfluenceEducation
SOCIAL ECONOMIC
Interdict Power lines
DisruptConstruct.
Effort
Disrupt SupplyLines
DisruptElections
US Army Combined Arms Center
Sunni Arabs
Imam ofMosques
I/O “Do Over”
Support of Moderate Sunnis
BribeAccess to
Mass MediaThreaten
Provide Charitable Materials
Hire Tribe
as PSD
Free Press
Graffiti
Paint overwith Quranic
Verse
Kill Key Personnel
Bribe
Safeguard Personnel
Hire asAdvisor
Tech.Skilled
Personnel
Start Business
Hire TechsCounter Facilitators
Principal Facilitator
COG Enabler
COIN COG
COACOACOA COA COA COA COA
POLITICAL MILITARY SOCIAL ECONOMIC
Infiltrate Political
Leadership
PoliticalWing
Disrupt Election
HarassingRocketsMortars
Attack MNF-IForces
Infiltrate IA
DisruptConstruct.
Effort
Interdict Power lines
Disrupt SupplyLines
ReligiousClass
Division
InfluenceEducation
COICOI COICOI COI COICOI COI COICOI COICOICOI COICOI COI COICOI COI COICOI COI
COICOI
FRE Desired End state
TribalClass
Division
US Army Combined Arms Center
Sunni Arabs
Imam ofMosques
I/O “Do Over”
Support of Moderate Sunnis
BribeAccess to
Mass MediaThreaten
Provide Charitable Materials
Hire Tribe
as PSD
Free Press
Graffiti
Paint overwith Quranic
Verse
Kill Key Personnel
Bribe
Safeguard Personnel
Hire asAdvisor
Tech.Skilled
Personnel
Start Business
Hire TechsCounter Facilitators
Principal Facilitator
COG Enabler
COIN COG
COACOACOA COA COA COA COA
POLITICAL MILITARY SOCIAL ECONOMIC
Infiltrate Political
Leadership
PoliticalWing
Disrupt Election
HarassingRocketsMortars
Attack MNF-IForces
Infiltrate IA
DisruptConstruct.
Effort
Interdict Power lines
Disrupt SupplyLines
ReligiousClass
Division
InfluenceEducation
COICOI COICOI COI COICOI COI COICOI COICOICOI COICOI COI COICOI COI COICOI COICOI
FRE Desired End state
TribalClass
Division
COI
US Army Combined Arms Center
COIN IPB
Step IEnvironment
Who(Population)
Step IIEffects
How(Root Causes)
What(Enemy MPCOA)
Step IIIEnemy
US Army Combined Arms Center
IPB III
IPB I
IPB II
IPB IV Puts together
To do what
Who specifically the enemy needs
How to get them
IPB IV
04/21/23 32
COI Enablers
CounterFacilitators
Enemy Centerof Gravity
Principal Facilitators
What thing or person is needed to get, sway, or maintain the COI to support and allow freedom of movement in area in order to ambush MNF-I forces (e.g. support of Muhammad Ahmad Muhammad - local tribal sheik, I/O theme)
Finding COIN COI: What aspect of the population does the enemy need to get, maintain, or sway in order to achieve freedom of movement, source of strength, security, and support in their operational goal -- e.g. (e.g. local Sunni population)
The action the enemy needs to do to get the COI Enablers. (e.g. coerce Muhammad Ahmad Muhammad by bribing, threaten, kidnapping family member, I/O theme promoted in tea shops, graffiti)
Thing or action does the friendly forces need to counter the enemy’s Principal Facilitators. (e.g. security for Muhammad Ahmad Muhammad, place sources in tea shops, paint over graffiti with pro-ISF message then place eyes-on and arrest insurgents attempt to deface new message (baited ambush)
EnemyI/O Theme
_________________
Enemy: ___Location (AO) ______
Strategy ___________Phase __________
Enemy’s Desired Endstate (e.g. Regain control of Iraq and MNF-I out)
Enemy Operational Objectives
(MPCOA/MDCOA)
Enemy Lines of Operation
Social EconomicPolitical Military
Enemy Operational Objectives
US Army Combined Arms Center
Enemy COIN Center of Influence Analysis
COIEnabler
Principal Facilitator
CounterFacilitator
Center of InfluenceCOG
CGE CGE CGE
PF PF PF PF PF PF
CF CF CF CF CF CF CF CF CF
What thing or aspect of the population is needed to get, sway or maintain the COI to support and gain support for their goal of disrupting the elections (e.g. support of Muhammad Ahmad Muhammad - local tribal sheik)
Finding COI: What aspect of the population does the enemy need to achieve freedom of movement, security, and support in their goal of disrupting the elections in Bn AO (e.g. local Sunni population)
What action does the enemy need to do to get the COI Enabler. (e.g. coerce Muhammad Ahmad Muhammad by bribing, threaten, kidnapping family member)
What can the friendly do to counter the enemy’s Principal Facilitator. (e.g. engage Muhammad Ahmad Muhammad, provide security)
US Army Combined Arms Center
Friendly COIN Center of Influence Analysis
Center of InfluenceCOG
CGE CGE CGE
PF PF PF PF PF PF
CF CF CF CF CF CF CF CF CF
What thing or aspect of the population is needed to get, sway, or maintain the COI to deny the enemy the ability to disrupt the elections freedom of movement of the enemy in Bn AO (e.g. support of Muhammad Ahmad Muhammad - local tribal sheik)
Finding COI; What aspect of the population is needed to limit the enemy’s support in their goal of disrupting the elections in Bn AO (e.g. local Sunni population)
Thing or action do we need to get theCOI Enabler. (e.g. engage and provide economic incentives to Muhammad Ahmad Muhammad and his tribe)
What can the enemy do to counter the friendly’s Principal Facilitator. (e.g. kidnap a member of Muhammad Ahmad Muhammad’s family)
COIEnabler
Principal Facilitator
CounterFacilitator
US Army Combined Arms Center
Enemy COIN Center of Influence Analysis
Center of Influence (COI): Aspect of the population, thing, or ideal that is needed to support/achieve the enemy’s purpose (Strategic Directive, Operational Objective ).
COI Enabler (CGE): What is necessary to get, maintain, or sway the COI in the context of that purpose (Strategic Directive, Operational Objective ).
Principal Facilitator (PF): What needs to be done to have, do, access, get, or facilitate the CGE.
Counter Facilitators (CF): What can the friendly do or what can occur to neutralize the Principal Facilitator.
COA (Mission): How to neutralize the Counter Facilitators.
US Army Combined Arms Center
Friendly COIN Center of Influence Analysis
Center of Influence (COI): Aspect of the population, thing, or ideal that is needed to support/achieve our purpose (Strategic Directive, Operational Objective ).
COI Enabler (CGE): What is necessary to get, maintain, or sway the COI in the context of that purpose (Strategic Directive, Operational Objective ).
Principal Facilitator (PF): What needs to be done to have, do, access, get, or facilitate the CGE.
Counter Facilitators (CF): What can the enemy do or what can occur to neutralize the Principal Facilitator.
COA (Mission): How to neutralize the Counter Facilitators. (COA)
US Army Combined Arms Center
MosulCenter of
GravitySunni Arabs
Imam Abdel Rahim
Nasir fromDhi al-Nourein
Mosque
I/O Campaign“Do Over”
Tribal LeaderSheik
Mohammad
UseTea
Housegrid
FJ7483923
UseTechnical
SkilledPersonnel
ThreatenImam and
followers
Hire Tribal PSD
Capture FRE recruiter /
PSDWork noticesin Tea Shop
DoctorsAl Ahmed
Speakspublicly
Start Business
Hire Techs
CMOClinic
Kill Key Personnel
Kidnap /CoerceFamily
Members
Empower within
FRE
Recruit Sons
Recognizeinclude in communitydecisions
InvestigateSons
HireSons
asContractors
PSD
ProvideMedicalsupplies
PSDusing local contractors and hiring
tribal members
Bribe
Provide CharitableMaterials
to Mosquefor IDPs
COI
COI Enabler
Operations
PrincipalFacilitator
CounterFacilitator
Thing or aspectneeded to get
maintain or sway
Action or Thing to get CGE
What counter for PF
How
COA COA COA COA COA COACOA COA COA COA
US Army Combined Arms Center
MosulCenter of
GravityKurds
Pesh Military CommanderCol Mustafa
Barzani
I/O Pro-National
ID/UnityCampaign
Local KurdishHero and
SpokesmanSheikh
Mahmmud Barzanji
Provideabsentee
balletsfor Pesh
from Airbil
Assign MNF-Itroops toPesh to
train and support
Use Kurdish spokesman
Sheikh Mahmmud Barzanji
(Word of mouth)
Use dual LanguageCapable
Personnel
AccessTo
MassMedia
Address his issues on
Kurds being displaced
(Arabization)
Attacktrucks
carrying ballets
PromoteMNF-I as
Pro-Kurdishand
Anti-Arab
Kurdish spokesman
AutonomousMessage
Kill spokesman
TargetBi-Lingual
+Educated
“No Friends but Mountain”
AttackTV, Radio,
Print Pax +
Structure
Kill spokesman
Iran JamsSignal
TurkeyCuts
ElectricitySilopi
Respect:Includein local
MNF-I Unittraining meetings
Learn schedule of training
meetingto AmbushCol Barzani
En-route
COA COA COA COA COA COACOA COA COA COAOperations
COI
COI Enabler
PrincipalFacilitator
CounterFacilitator
Thing or aspectneeded to get
maintain or sway
Action or thing to get CGE
What counter for PF
How
US Army Combined Arms Center
MosulCenter of
GravityKurds
Pesh Military CommanderCol Mustafa
Barzani
I/O Pro-National
ID/UnityCampaign
Local KurdishHero and
SpokesmanSheikh
Mahmmud Barzanji
Provideabsentee
balletsfor Pesh
from Airbil
Assign MNF-Itroops toPesh to
train and support
Use Kurdish spokesman
Sheikh Mahmmud Barzanji
(Word of mouth)
Use dual LanguageCapable
Personnel
AccessTo
MassMedia
Address his issues on
Kurds being displaced
(Arabization)
Attacktrucks
carrying ballets
PromoteMNF-I as
Pro-Kurdishand
Anti-Arab
Kurdish spokesman
AutonomousMessage
Kill spokesman
TargetBi-Lingual
+Educated
“No Friends but Mountain”
AttackTV, Radio,
Print Pax +
Structure
Kill spokesman
Iran JamsSignal
TurkeyCuts
ElectricitySilopi
Respect:Includein local
MNF-I Unittraining meetings
Learn schedule of training
meetingto AmbushCol Barzani
En-route
COA COA COA COA COACOA COA COACOAOperations
COI
COI Enabler
PrincipalFacilitator
CounterFacilitator
Thing or aspectneeded to get
maintain or sway
Action or thing to get CGE
What counter for PF
How
Prioritization and Unity of Effort
COA
US Army Combined Arms Center
MosulCenter of
GravityKurds
Pesh Military CommanderCol Mustafa
Barzani
I/O Pro-National
ID/UnityCampaign
Local KurdishHero and
SpokesmanSheikh
Mahmmud Barzanji
Provideabsentee
balletsfor Pesh
from Airbil
Assign MNF-Itroops toPesh to
train and support
Use Kurdish spokesman
Sheikh Mahmmud Barzanji
(Word of mouth)
Use dual LanguageCapable
Personnel
AccessTo
MassMedia
Address his issues on
Kurds being displaced
(Arabization)
Attacktrucks
carrying ballets
PromoteMNF-I as
Pro-Kurdishand
Anti-Arab
Kurdish spokesman
AutonomousMessage
Kill spokesman
TargetBi-Lingual
+Educated
“No Friends but Mountain”
AttackTV, Radio,
Print Pax +
Structure
Kill spokesman
Iran JamsSignal
TurkeyCuts
ElectricitySilopi
Respect:Includein local
MNF-I Unittraining meetings
Learn schedule of training
meetingto AmbushCol Barzani
En-route
Operations
COI
COI Enabler
PrincipalFacilitator
CounterFacilitator
Thing or aspectneeded to get
maintain or sway
Action or thing to get CGE
What counter for PF
HowTTPs will help confirm Operational Objectives
and Center of Influence analysis
US Army Combined Arms Center
MosulCenter of
GravityKurds
Pesh Military CommanderCol Mustafa
Barzani
I/O Pro-National
ID/UnityCampaign
Local KurdishHero and
SpokesmanSheikh
Mahmmud Barzanji
Provideabsentee
balletsfor Pesh
from Airbil
Assign MNF-Itroops toPesh to
train and support
Use Kurdish spokesman
Sheikh Mahmmud Barzanji
(Word of mouth)
Use dual LanguageCapable
Personnel
AccessTo
MassMedia
Address his issues on
Kurds being displaced
(Arabization)
PromoteMNF-I as
Pro-Kurdishand
Anti-Arab
Kurdish spokesman
AutonomousMessage
Kill spokesman
TargetBi-Lingual
+Educated
“No Friends but Mountain”
AttackTV, Radio,
Print Pax +
Structure
Kill spokesman
Respect:Includein local
MNF-I Unittraining meetings
Learn schedule of training
meetingto AmbushCol Barzani
En-route
Operations
COI
COI Enabler
PrincipalFacilitator
CounterFacilitator
Thing or aspectneeded to get
maintain or sway
Action or thing to get CGE
What counter for PF
How Write (focused) PIR, IR, and RFIs where information is needed
US Army Combined Arms Center
Fundamentals of IDAD/FID
Note: To be effective all must be done simultaneously at the Strategic, Operational, and Tactical level for the short, mid, and long range
Balanced development: “Negate the causes of the Insurgency”
Mobilization: “Popular involvement in progress”
Neutralization: “Separate the insurgency from the populace”
Security: “Safeguard populace and infrastructure”
Foreign Internal Defense: “Empowering the HN take the lead”
US Army Combined Arms Center
COACOACOACOACOACOACOACOACOACOA COACOA COACOA
Short Term Mid Term Long Term
Balanced
Development
Mobilization
Neutralization
Security
FID
COIN Validation + Evaluationbase onCOIN Principles
Protecting MNF/ISF Weaknesses
Exploiting AIF Weaknesses
COA
COA
COA
COA
US Army Combined Arms Center
Analyzing the Charts
US Army Combined Arms Center
Analyzing the Insurgency
AIF A AIFB
Strategic EndState
Strategic Directives(Lines of Operation PMSE)
Operational Objectives(From PMSE)
Location(Div, Bde, Bn)
Center of Influence
COI Enabler
PrincipalFacilitator
CounterFacilitator
ENEMY COINCOI TEMPLATE
US Army Combined Arms Center
AIF A AIF B
Helps Confirms Operational Goals Possible Collaboration
Unity of Effort for COA from Enemy Vulnerabilities (I/O, Security, mobilization)
Strategic EndState
Strategic Directives(Lines of Operation PMSE)
Operational Objectives(From PMSE)
Location(Div, Bde, Bn)
Center of Influence
COI Enabler
PrincipalFacilitator
CounterFacilitator
ENEMY COINCOI TEMPLATE
US Army Combined Arms Center
“Theory cannot equip the mind with formulas for solving problems, nor can it mark the narrow path on which the sole solution is supposed to lie . . . But it can give the mind insight into the great mass of phenomena and of their relationships, then leave it free to rise into the higher realms of action.”
- Clausewitz
US Army Combined Arms Center
QUESTIONS?
US Army Combined Arms Center
MNF withdrawalsRegain control
Economic
Political
Constitutionalreferendum
fails
AL Anbar
Infiltrate system “legitimate” political
party
Saladin Ninawa
Mosul
Enemy COG Friendly COG
SocialMilitary
Center of Influence
US Army Combined Arms Center
COI Enabler (CGE) is a thing or person (noun) that the force needs to get, maintain, or sway the Center of Influence (e.g. “IO campaign,” “the influence of local Sunni leaders”, “Mosques for indoctrination.”)
The achieve the Desired End state the objective in COIN is to deny insurgents access to the population
Principal Facilitator (PF) are the actions or things (verbs and/or nouns) used by the force to utilize, acquire, develop, or access the CGE.(i.e. “use techs for IO (websites, etc),” “bribe/coerce local Sunni leaders,” “obtain support of Imam”)
COIN COI Analysis
COI - The enemy’s main supporting strength. Generally the aspect of the population that supports the enemy’s striking force (e.g. Sunni Arabs)
Counter Facilitators (CF) are actions (verbs) of what to do to neutralize the Principal Facilitator.(i.e. “build company and hire techs,” “engage/protect local Sunni leaders,” “Iraqi Government engages local Imam”)
US Army Combined Arms Center
MNF withdrawalsRegain control
Economic
Political
Constitutionalreferendum
fails
AL Anbar
Infiltrate system “legitimate” political
party
Salahad Din Ninawa
Mosul
Enemy COG Friendly COG
SocialMilitary
Center of Influence