Intro

Opportunity for Higher Educationin a Perfect Storm

Tri-State Consortium of Opportunity ProgramsNewark, New Jersey

April 8, 2013

Tom MortensonSenior Scholar,

The Pell Institute for the Study of Opportunity in Higher EducationHigher Education Policy Analyst,

Postsecondary Education OPPORTUNITY

The Perfect Storm

• Reality versus Policy

• Demographics

• Labor Markets

• State Policy Choices

• Federal Policy Choices

• Institutional Policy Choices

• Consequences for (some) students

• Is this class warfare?

The Perfect Storm

Realities:

• Stages of economic development:• Primary: agriculture, natural resources

• Secondary: manufacturing

• Tertiary: human capital

• Dynamic demography• Shrinking white/growing minority populations

• Growing shares of poor children in K-12 and higher education

• Aging population, living longer

• Globalization

The Perfect Storm

Federal policy choices:

• Progressive policy era: 1862 to 1980• 1862: Morrill Land Grant Act

• 1895: Second Morrill Land Grant Act

• 1944: Servicemen’s Readjustment Act

• 1957: National Defense Education Act

• 1965: Higher Education Act

• 1972: Pell Grant program

• 1978: Middle Income Student Assistance Act

• Regressive policy era: 1980 to present• 1981, 1982, 1994: Pell Grant maximum award reduced

• 1987: Federal aid moves away from need-based grants

• Aging population, living longer

The Perfect Storm

State policy choices:

• Progressive policy era: to 1980• Universal K-12 education

• State teachers’ colleges

• Junior colleges

• Need-based grant aid

• Increased funding efforts for higher education

• Regressive policy era: 1980 to present• Cutbacks in state appropriations efforts

• Colleges and universities raise tuition charges to students

• Growth in merit based scholarship programs

The Perfect Storm

Institutional policy choices:

• Progressive policy era: to 1980• Universal K-12 education

• State teachers’ colleges

• Junior colleges

• Need-based grant aid

• Increased funding efforts for higher education

• Regressive policy era: 1980 to present• Enrollment management

• Prestige race (U.S. News)

• Revenue replacement: full pay versus institutional aid, non- residents versus state residents

• Research versus instruction in public 4-year institutions

The Perfect Storm

• Reality versus Policy

• Demographics

• Labor Markets

• State Policy Choices

• Federal Policy Choices

• Institutional Policy Choices

• Consequences for (some) students

• Is this class warfare?

K-12 School Lunch Program

Upper Family Income Limits for 1st, 2nd, & 3rd Quartiles

Low Income Student Shares of Total

The Perfect Storm

• Reality versus Policy

• Demographics

• Labor Markets

• State Policy Choices

• Federal Policy Choices

• Institutional Policy Choices

• Consequences for (some) students

• Is this class warfare?

The Perfect Storm

• Reality versus Policy

• Demographics

• Labor Markets

• State Policy Choices

• Federal Policy Choices

• Institutional Policy Choices

• Consequences for (some) students

• Is this class warfare?

National Avg Resident Undergrad Tuition & Fees in Public Inst

Need-Based Grant Share of State Student Financial Aid

The Perfect Storm

• Reality versus Policy

• Demographics

• Labor Markets

• State Policy Choices

• Federal Policy Choices

• Institutional Policy Choices

• Consequences for (some) students

• Is this class warfare?

Need-Based Share of Federal Student Financial Aid

Purchasing Power of Pell Grant

The Perfect Storm

• Reality versus Policy

• Demographics

• Labor Markets

• State Policy Choices

• Federal Policy Choices

• Institutional Policy Choices

• Consequences for (some) students

• Is this class warfare?

Core Revenue by Source for Public 4-Year

Changes in Core Revenue by Source for Public 4-Year

State/Local Appropriations Share of Core Revenue at Public 4-Year

Institutions

Tuition & fee Share of Core Revenue at Public 4-Year Insts

Core Expenditure Shares by Function for Public 4-Year Insts

Changes in Core Expenditure Shares by Function for Public 4-

Year Insts

Instruction Share of Core Expenditures in Public 4-Year Insts

Tuition Share of Instruction + Student Services in Public 4-Year

Insts

Public 4-Year Shares of Undergrads with & without Pell

Grants

The Perfect Storm

• Reality versus Policy

• Demographics

• Labor Markets

• State Policy Choices

• Federal Policy Choices

• Institutional Policy Choices

• Consequences for (some) students

• Is this class warfare?

Pell Grants Enrolled in Public & Private in Clgs & Univ

Pell Grant Shares in 4-Year & 2-Year

High School Grad Rates by Family Income Quartiles

College continuation Rates by Income Quartiles

Change in College Continuation Rates

Bachelor’s Degree Completion by Age 24

Change in Completion Rate

Distribution of Bachelor’s Degrees Awarded by Age 24

Tertiary Type-A Degree Attain 25-34 yr olds OECD 2003

Tertiary Type-A Degree Attain 25-34 OECD 2009

Change in Tertiary Type-A Degree Attain 25-34 OECD 2000-2009

Projected Tertiary Type-A Degree attain OECD 2020

The Perfect Storm

• Reality versus Policy

• Demographics

• Labor Markets

• State Policy Choices

• Federal Policy Choices

• Institutional Policy Choices

• Consequences for (some) students

• Is this class warfare?

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