Post on 03-Jan-2016
description
International Tourism – A General Overview
World Tourism Organization
www.world-tourism.org
International TourismMarket Size
International Tourist Arrivals
689 million(2001 figure)
Total Receipts:US$477 billion Per Arrival: US$ 680
(2000 figure)
Share in world total (%)
Asia and the P acific
18%
Other82%
Share in world total (%)
Europe
58%
Other
42%
International tourist arrivals by region
2000 2001Change (%) Change (%) Estimate
growth
(million) 2000/1999 1990-2000 2001*/2000 (million)
World 697.5 7.0 4.3 -1.3 688.5
Africa 27.6 4.3 6.3 3.2 28.5
Americas 128.3 5.0 3.3 -7.0 119.3
East Asia and the Pacific 110.6 14.3 7.3 3.8 114.9
Europe 403.2 5.7 3.6 -0.7 400.5
Middle East 21.2 12.3 9.0 -8.8 19.4
South Asia 6.4 11.2 7.4 -6.4 6.0
Source: World Tourism Organization (WTO) © (Data as collected by WTO January 2001)
Llegadas de turistas internacionales por regiones en 2001
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
World Africa Americas East Asiaand thePacif ic
Europe MiddleEast
SouthAsia
% v
aria
ción
Llegadas de turistas internacionales por regiones en 2001
7.0
-1.3-2
-1
0
1
23
4
5
6
7
8
1%
var
iaci
ón
International Tourism stalls in 2001
International Tourist Arrivals(volume)
552586 610 628 652
698 689
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001*
(millio
n)
International Tourist Arrivals(% change)
6.1
4.1
3.03.7
7.0
-1.3-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
96/95 97/96 98/97 99/98 00/99 01*/00
(% c
hang
e)
World’s Top five tourism destinations
International Tourist ArrivalsRank 2000 Change (%) est. 2001 Market
(million) 2001*/2000 (million) Share (%)
1 France 75.6 1.2 76.5 11.1
2 Spain 47.9 3.4 49.5 7.2
3 United States 50.9 -12.6 44.5 6.5
4 Italy 41.2 -5.0 39.1 5.7
5 China 31.2 6.2 33.2 4.8
Source: World Tourism Organization (WTO) © (Data as collected by WTO January 2001)
First decrease in 2 decades
Growth of World Real GDP & international Tourist Arrivals
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
% c
ha
ng
e o
ve
r p
rev
iou
s y
ea
r
Tourist Arrivals
Average 1975-2000
echo of the second oil crisis / martial law in Poland / Falklands conflict / conflict Israel Lebanon
Gulf War / disintegration of Yugoslavia
Asian Financial Crisis
World Tourism in 2001characterized by:
11 September attacks on the United
States and the following response
World Tourism in 2001characterized by:
• Global economic downturn affecting all
major economies at same time
Economic downturn already manifest before 11 September
International Tourist Arrivals - Regional Trends
2.8
9.9
6.1
1.7 1.20.3 0.3
9.0
3.3
7.4
3.6
6.3
4.3
7.35.7
11.2
5.0
12.3
4.3
14.3
7.0
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
World East Asia and
the Pacific
Africa Europe South Asia Americas Middle East
% c
hang
e
1990-2000 2000/1999 Jan.-Aug. 2001*
Sharp contrast to 20002000 exceptional year for tourism: overall positive conditions • strong world economy• relative calm political situation• many big events: millennium celebration,
Holy Year, Olympic Games, European championship soccer, Expo 2000 Hannover
• pent-up demand (in particular long-haul) after Kosovo conflict in 1999 and ‘millennium fear’
Impact of the 11 September attacksInternational Tourist Arrivals - Regional Trends
2.8
9.96.1
1.7 1.2 0.3 0.3
-10.9 -10.3
-3.5-6.2
-24 -24
-30.2
-1.3
3.8 3.2
-0.7
-6.4 -7-8.8
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
World East Asia and the
Pacific
Africa Europe South Asia Americas Middle East
% c
hang
e
Jan.-Aug. 2001* Sept.-Dec. 2001* 2001* all year
▲Destinations / segments relatively less affected or that even benefited
▲ more domestic than international
▲ travel by car, coach, train
▲ rural tourism
▲ ski resorts
▲ camping
▲ bed and breakfast
What is the Current Situation?
• January – February 2002 – staggered recovery
• Long haul - slower as a whole
• But package bookings in UK and Germany - good
• BA, Hong Kong, Europe, USA
• Light at end of tunnel
Redistribution during Recovery
▼ Worst hit:
national airlines/cruises/MICE/upmarket city hotels/large T.O.
▲ Quiet beneficiary:
country inns,specialised tour operators, budget airlines, sports and culture tourism
What has changed?
▲ cost
▲ duration
▲ booking habits
▲ motivation
▲ product/promotion
Short-term forecast
• Pick up late 2002 and early 2003
• Vigorous revival in 2003
Most likely scenario 2002:Mirror image of 2001
International Tourist Arrivals
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
j f m a m j j a s o n d j f m a m j j a s o n d
% c
hang
e ov
er s
ame
mon
th p
revi
ous
year
Source: WTO
Observed evolution2001
Expected evolution2002
Short-term forecast
The bright spots:
• Republic of Korea
• China
0
200
400
600
800
1.000
1.200
1.400
1.600
1.800
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Mil
lio
n
South AsiaMiddle EastAfricaEast Asia/PacificAmericasEurope
Actual Forecasts
Tourist Arrivals by Receiving Region, 1950- 2020
Tourist arrivals(Million)
Tourism receipts(US$ Billion)
1995 2020 1995 2020
455
1,561
565
Tourism 2020 Vision - Forecasts
2,000
World’s Top Destinations 2020
1 China2 France3 United States4 Spain5 Hong Kong (China)6 United Kingdom7 Italy8 Mexico9 Russian Fed.10 Czech Rep.
Country
Tourist arrivals(Million)
7.82.33.52.67.13.42.13.68.54.0
%growth rate p.a.
1995-2020
8.36.86.64.73.63.43.43.13.12.7
Marketshare (%)
130106102 74 57 54 53 49 48 44