International FinanceFINA 5331

Lecture 4: Balance of Payments

Read: Chapters 3

Aaron Smallwood Ph.D.

Balance of Payments Example

• Suppose that Maplewood Bicycle in Maplewood, Missouri, USA imports $100,000 worth of bicycle frames from Mercian Bicycles in Darby England.

• There will exist a $100,000 credit recorded by Mercian that offsets a $100,000 debit at Maplewood’s bank account.

• This will lead to a rise in the supply of dollars and the demand for British pounds.

• The balance of payments accounts are those that record all transactions between the residents of a country and residents of all foreign nations.

• They are composed of the following:– The Current Account– The Financial Account– The Official Reserves Account– The Capital Account– Statistical Discrepancy

Balance of Payments Accounts

The Current Account

• Includes all imports and exports of goods and services, including financial services (invisible trade).

• Includes unilateral transfers of foreign aid.

• If the debits exceed the credits, then a country is running a trade deficit.

• If the credits exceed the debits, then a country is running a trade surplus.

• It is thought that the CA responds to changes in income and the exchange rate.

The current account

• Consists of four categories– Merchandise trade (tangible goods)– Services (trade in factors of production)– Investment income (credit if receive payment

on previous investment, debit if we make payments on previous investments).

– Unilateral transfers (gifts and aid).

The Current Account

• A credit on the current account results in foreign reserves flowing in (fixed exchange rate) or an increase in the demand for domestic currency in the FOREX market (flexible exchange rate).

• A debit on the current account results in foreign reserves flowing out of the domestic economy (fixed exchange rate) or an increase in the supply of domestic currency in the FOREX market (flexible exchange rate).

The Current Account

• When a domestic company sells goods or services to a foreign resident, there will be a credit recorded on the current account.

• When a domestic resident buys goods or services from a foreign firm, there will be a debit recorded on the current account.

• When a foreign asset pays interest to a domestic resident, or a domestic resident earns income in the foreign economy, there will be a credit recorded on the current account.

• When a domestic asset pays interest to a foreign resident, or a foreign resident earns income in the domestic economy, there will be a debit recorded on the current account.

J-curve Effect

What conditions are necessary for J-curve effect?

εIM is the import demand elasticity = %Δimports divided by %ΔSt.

When εIM is greater than one (in absolute value), a domestic depreciation will lead to a fall in the RMB value of imports. Import demand is said to be elastic.

When εIM is equal to one (in absolute value), a domestic depreciation will not change the RMB value of imports.

When εIM is less than one (in absolute value), a domestic depreciation will lead to a rise in the RMB value of imports. Import demand is inelastic.

The J-curve can only occur when import demand elasticities are inelastic.

Algebra of Import Demand Elasticities

J-curve

• The point is your company’s expenditures on imports may increase following a domestic currency depreciation.

• While export volumes are expected to increase, if small, the generated revenue may not fully cover the increase in costs. Profits could be reduced.

• For an economy, if imports rise by a larger amount than exports, the trade balance could move into deficit.

The Financial Account

• The financial account measures the difference between Chinese sales of assets to foreigners and Chinese purchases of foreign assets.

• The financial account is composed of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), portfolio investments and other investments.

The Financial Account

• A credit on the financial account results in foreign reserves flowing in (fixed exchange rate) or an increase in the demand for domestic currency in the FOREX market (flexible exchange rate).

• A debit on the financial account results in foreign reserves flowing out of the domestic economy (fixed exchange rate) or an increase in the supply of domestic currency in the FOREX market (flexible exchange rate).

The Financial Account

• When a domestic entity (firm or individual) sells an asset to a foreign resident, there will be a credit recorded on the financial account.

• When a domestic resident buys an asset from a foreign entity, there will be a debit recorded on the financial account.

• Note – income earned on these assets is recorded on the current account, not the financial account.

The Balance of Payments Identity

BCA + BFA + BRA = 0BCA = balance on current accountBFA = balance on financial accountBRA = balance on the reserves account

(which assumes no capital account balance and no statistical discrepancy)

• Note: When a country experiences a currency crisis, we typically see BRA>0 (and HUGE)

Under a pure flexible exchange rate regime, BCA + BFA = 0

Because BRA = 0

Balance of Payments Trends

• Since 1982 the U.S. has experienced continuous deficits on the current account and continuous surpluses on the financial account.

• During the same period, China has experienced surpluses in both and deficit in official reserves.

China BOP

Japan BOP

USA BOP

Balances on the Current (BCA) and Financial (BKA) Accounts of United Kingdom

1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80United Kingdom

Bala

nces

in B

illion

s of

US

dolla

rs

Current Account Balance

Financial Account Balance

Official reserves

• In the US official reserve assets include gold, foreign currency, and special drawing rights (issued by the IMF).

• The official settlements balance is BCA+BFA

• When BCA+BFA≠0, the central bank must acquire or deplete holdings of official reserves.

More recent data (billions $)CurrentAccount

FinAccount

FDIIn

FDIOut

Port.Assets

Port.Liab.

Reserve

2011:Q1 26.587 108.80 67.70 -6.10 -2.80 0.200 -141.20

2011:Q2 50.720 112.80 61.80 -11.30 3.40 7.700 -142.50

2011:Q3 31.195 69.00 41.70 -15.90 4.10 5.800 -91.700

2011:Q4 27.498 -30.50 60.40 -15.10 1.60 -0.300 -12.400

2012:Q1 49.264 54.60 48.80 -14.8 3.40 5.900 -74.600

2012:Q2 58.064 -42.10 41.10 -13.3 2.50 8.700 11.800

2012:Q3 59.348 -52.50 38.50 -13.7 -10.6 15.200 0.400

2012:Q4 26.424 19.00 62.60 -20.6 -1.70 24.500 -34.1

2013:Q1 73.996 88.50 32.00 -21.3 -2.90 17.000 -157.00

2013:Q2 54.230 27.7 45.60 -15.7 -4.90 14.900 -46.600

More recently

• Smaller current account surpluses for China. (in billions)– 2011: $136.0, 2012: $193.1, 2013: $128.2

• Surprisingly in Feb of this year, China ran a deficit of $23 billion.

• More private investment in China than Chinese investment abroad

• Official reserve holdings declined to $387.8 billion in 2011, and even further to $96.5 billion in 2012 ($203.6 billion through Q2 2013).

• Real GDP has slowed slightly. According to the World Bank, from 10.4% in 2010 to 7.8 % in 2012.

Balance of Payments and National Income Accounting

• GNP = Y = C + I + G + X – M• Y = C + S + T• X – M = (S- I) + (T- G)• If a developing economy experiences large

trade deficits (X-M <0), the remedies are:1. Savings must increase, S↑2. Investment must fall, I↓3. Government spending must fall, G↓4. Taxes must rise, T↑

In class project

• Let’s classify several hypothetical transactions– A Japanese insurance company purchases $1,000,000 worth

of bonds from a US company. The Japanese company owns 2% of the outstanding shares of the US company. They pay for the bonds out of a bank account kept in New York City.

– A US computer programmer is hired by a Chinese company for consulting and gets paid $60,000 from a US bank account maintained by the Chinese company.

– An American living in Los Angeles sends a check for $20,000 drawn on his LA bank account as a gift to his parents in Bombay.

– The Federal Reserve sells yen and acquires $500,000 on the open market from a US car dealer. The car dealer uses their proceeds of yen to acquire $500,000 worth of Hondas.

– A Dutch trader receives a dividend check from IBM for $25,000. The check is drawn on a bank in New York.