Post on 10-Oct-2020
Integrating Asian Wisdom:Low Carbon Asia Research Network
LoCARNet for Green Growth
September 2012 Bangkok
Dr. Shuzo NishiokaSecretary General, LoCARNet
Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES)0
Growing importance of actions towards low‐carbon development in Asia
1990
2008
2050
Source: Presentation by Dr. Mikiko Kainuma (Nov. 2011) 1
National governments
East Asia Knowledge Platform for Low Carbon Growth
Science-based
policy-making support joint research, capacity building
LoCARNet as Think Tank
for East Asia Knowledge Platform for Low-Carbon Growth
Cities, local communities
Private enterprises
Reliable data, GHG inventoriestechnology roadmap,
Integrated Assessment Modeleconomic evaluation tools
Low Carbon Asia Research Network
(LoCARNet)
Industrialised countries
Low-carbon infrastructure, transportation/3Rs system
Green investmentGreen industry/business
Int’l NGOsICLEI, IGES
SEI
Tech transfer
National/International
financing organizations
GEFWorld Bank
ADB
JICAAusAidKOICACDKNLEDSGIZ
etc
International research
communities
APNSATREPS(JST/JICA)LCS‐RNetNIESIGES
GGGICLEAN
UNESCAPEU
ICSUIPCC
UNFCCCetc.
Financing agencies
Knowledge sharing in Asia
Framework of “Low Carbon Asia Research Network (LoCARNet)”
LoCARNet is a multi‐layered, flexible, open network for researchers to contribute to low carbon policy‐making.
LoCARNet - Activities and Uniqueness目的と特色
Network of leading researchers/research organizations’ whoare deeply involved in low-carbon growth policy processes in this region.
Science‐Science‐Policy Dialogue: LoCARNet promotes research for policies towards low-carbon growth by enabling a sufficient amount of dialogue among/between scientists and policy-makers.
Ownership of knowledge by countries: LoCARNet encourages collaboration amongst researchers in-country whose research capacity and scientific knowledge are firmly grounded in their home countries.
South‐South‐North Collaboration: LoCARNet aims to increase in research capacity in the AP region through knowledge sharing and information exchange, in the scheme of not only north-south cooperation, but also south-south regional cooperation.
4
Structuring Science‐based National Low Carbon/Green Growth Strategies
GHG Inventory
Scientific measurement and evaluation
List of Technologies:energy, performance, cost
National Development plan
Policy options
Nationally AppropriateAction Plan
National LC/GG Development plan
Socio-Economic Evaluation
Technological road map
National Communicationto UNFCCC
Reduction Target setting
Integrated Assessment
Models
Implementation
Planning
International contribution
Scientific data acquisition
Forest, soil
land useTransportationIndustry
Energy System Sectoralmodels
City/Local planning
Policy stage Macro-frame Scientific Process Methodologies
Citizen mobilization
Residence and Office
Institutionalization
IPCC & region-specificmethodologies
Synthesizing
Policy formulation
Policy evaluation
Implementation on the ground
Monitoring
Target setting
Green investment/finance, burden‐sharing
Social infrastructure
design (hard/soft)
Growth scenarios,technology roadmaps
Low carbon model cities
Mobilisation of the private sector
Minimise transition friction
Consumption/ lifestyle/behaviour change
Building consensus
Participatory approach
Economic Models
Policy and Measures
Integrated Assessment Model
GHG Inventory, Energy Balance Table
Target setting
Target
Formulation of low‐carbon growth policies‐ Process, data, knowledge, tools and methods
Policy feedback
6
International Symposium on Sustainable Low-Carbon Asia Research and Policy DialogueAt Johor Bahru, Malaysia on July 9th(Mon), 2012Low Carbon ASIA – Policy-makers’ Dialogue
What research area/ topics should be strengthened using synergy of regional cooperation?
Ex.• Inventory data of region specific items• Energy demand side data• Development of forestry and land‐use simulation model • Utilization of integrated assessment models for nationally/ regionally harmonized LC
policy
• Economic evaluation methodology for Low carbon growth• Low carbon city management• Comparative study of effectiveness of LC policy and measures among region• Reform of power system
• Transportation system: good practices• Waste management in relation to LC policy• Mobilizing local society • Asian value and behavior• …….
Low Carbon Asia Research Network (LoCARNet) 1st Annual Meeting
“How to mobilise the wisdom towards low-carbon development in Asia”
Date: 16 and 17 October 2012Venue: Novotel Bangkok on Siam Square (tbc), Bangkok, Thailand Organisers:- Co-organisers (tbc):
APN: Asia-Pacific Network for Global Change ResearchADB: Asian Development BankJGSEE: Joint Graduate School of Energy and Environment, ThailandLoCARNet/IGES: Low Carbon Asia Research Network / Institute for Global Environmental Strategies
- Supporters (tbc):MOEJ :Ministry of the Environment, Japan TGO: Thailand Greenhouse Gas Management Organization
Programme (tentative): 6 keynote sessions, 6 group sessions, 3 dialogues with researchers and policy-makers, etc.
Objectives of the annual meeting:
Towards sound science-based low-carbon policy in the region, the annual meeting aims:
– to exchange up-to-date scientific knowledge on common LC Growth research topics in this region (through dialogues among researchers/research institutes) Use of Integrated Assessment Model, Land Use and Forestry,
GHG Inventory, Low Carbon City, Local Level Practices/Local Decisions/Local Initiatives, Institutionalisation of Low-Carbon Green Growth, etc…
– to exchange views on research needs between policy-makers and the research community (through dialogues between policy-makers and researchers/research institutes)
– to explore potential collaboration areas for joint research in the region (S-S cooperation)
– to develop plans for LoCARNet future activities– to pick-up/extract recommendations from research
communities in this region, addressed to world leaders on climate change and low-carbon development
Save our common climate
Integrating Asian wisdom: LoCARNet for Green GrowthThank you for your kind attention!
Stable climateLow carbon society
Society with technologies having low dependence on energy
Green economyGreen InvestmentGreen Finance
Backcasting forpolicy formation
Long‐term
Priority of QoL
Sustainable society
Prioritise policy targetsStable climate > Energy > Economy
Survival
Safety
Convenience
Amenity
Nature
Energy
Economy
11Short‐term
Progress of
“Low Carbon Asia Research Network (LoCARNet)” as a central core for providing knowledge
Pre-history:
• 2009-2011 Asia:
IGES/NIES’ workshops to promote dialogues between policy-makers and researchers in Indonesia, Thailand, Cambodia, Vietnam and Malaysia⇒ recognized growing importance of research society for low-carbon growth in Asia
• 19 October 2011 Phnom Penh:
Japan proposed “Low Carbon Asia Research Network at ASEAN+3 EMM
• April 2012 Tokyo:
Minister of Environment of Japan declared launching of LoCARNet,as an element of ‘East Asia Knowledge Sharing Platform for Low Carbon Growth’ at the “East Asia Low Carbon Growth Partnership Dialogue”,
• Organization in process now
12
Progress of
“Low Carbon Asia Research Network ” planed activities in 2012
• 2012 May: APN Fund (0.3mil.US$/y) for LoCARNet established (Low Carbon Initiative in Asia‐Pacific Network for Global Change Research for Regional‐based research/ Capacity Development/Networking activities
• 2012 July 9: Policy‐makers’ panel at Johor Bahru Symposium on LoCARNet future activities from policy‐makers’ point of view
• 2012 July 23 (at ISAP, IGES): LoCARNet Kick‐off Meeting to discuss on future activities, research needs, knowledge exchange/capacity building system and organization by leading researchers in the region
• 2012 July 24 (at ISAP, IGES): Report its progress to “East Asia Knowledge Platform for Low Carbon Growth ‐ Knowledge in Action for Policy and Investment” session
• 2012 September 18 Oxford: Session on “Regional co‐operation: Asian case study” at LCS‐RNet 4th Annual Meeting
• 2012 16‐17 October at Bangkok : LoCARNet First annual meeting ⇒Report/recommendation to UNFCCC COP18, ASEAN+3、、、
• 2013 ⇒ LoCARNet will be expected to become an autonomous researchers’ network based on south‐south cooperation in the region.
to 2007
Industry
Residential
Commercial
Transport
Non-energy
to 1990
Industry
Residential
Commercial
Transport
Non-energy
Historical and projected GHG emissions Reduction rate in 2020GHG emissions trends
Left: total reductionRight: upper: reduction within the sector
lower: reduction due to energy sector
Industry
Commercial
Residential
Non-energy
TransportEm
issi
on in
199
0 =
1
16Mitigation Potential(ktCO2)
Mar
gina
l aba
tem
ent c
osts
(Y
en/k
tCO
2)
:Industry
:Commercial
:Agriculture
:Wastes
:F-Gas
:Residential
:Transportation
Note: MCII, Payback time is 3 years except 10 years in Insulation and PV. Mitigation potential is compared to the emissions in Frozen Case
AIM/Enduse[Japan]
Reduction potential and cost of TechnologiesMarginal Abatement Cost to Reduce GHG emissions in 2020
[Trans] From normal-size vehicles to small-size and light vehicles
[Trans] freight car (change of ownership from private to commercial)
[Trans] Energy efficiency improvement of vehicles
[Trans] Energy efficiency improvement of ships, rails and air
[Residential] Energy efficiency improvement of air conditioners
[Residential] Energy efficiency improvement of Electric appliances
[Residential] Energy efficiency improvement of lights
[Commercial] Energy efficiency improvement of air conditioners
[Commercial] Energy efficiency improvement of motors
[Commercial] Energy efficiency improvement of lights
[Industry] Measures in the pulp and paper sector
[Industry] Energy efficiency improvement of motor
[Transport] Bionergy
[F-gases]Measures in F-gases
[Commercial] Latent heat recovery in hot water supply
[Transport] Hybrid vehicles
[Industry] High efficient furnace
[Wastes] Measures in the waste sector
[Industry] Energy efficient improvement of private power generation
[Industry] Measures in the steel sector
[Residential] PV
[Industry] conversion to natural gas
[Industry] PV
[Residential] Latent heatrecovery in hot water supply
[Trans] Conversion to electric vehicles
[Residential] Heat Pump type hot water supply
[Commercial] Heat Pump type hot water supply
[Residential] Insulation (house & bath)
[Agriculture] Process improvement of domestic animal excrement, reduction of manure
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
-10,000
-20,000
-30,000
-40,000
0 30,000 60,000 90,000 120,000 150,000 180,000 210,000 240,000 270,000 300,000
[Agriculture] Energy efficiency improvement and saving in use
[Industry] Measures in the Petrochemical industry
[Transport] Measures to reduce service demands
17
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
‐10,000
‐20,000
‐30,000
‐40,000
0 30,000 60,000 90,000 120,000 150,000 180,000 210,000 240,000 270,0000 30,000 60,000 90,000 120,000 150,000 180,000 210,000 240,000 270,000
Countermeasures to implement technologies Feasible with Four sets of countermeasures to achieve the target of 2020
Sets of Measures A
Negative abatement
costs. Economically
feasilbe
Sets of Measures B
Marginal abatement costs are
under certain level
Sets of Measures CHigh cost measures. Requires
appropriate policy
measures
1) Enhancement of Top RunnerTop energy efficiency in all sectors-Enhancement of regulation- Introduction o f bench mark regulation
2) Visualization of countermeasure activities
Information to encourage smart and rational choices - Labeling of GHG emissions- Mechanism to make the choices economically feasible (e.g. combination with carbon offset).- Real time display of electric consumption
3) Carbin pricingMechanism that reduction effort is economically rewarding-Introduction of emission trading-Green tax, Environmental tax (international competitivenss should be consideres)
4) Mechanism to enhance technology development and deploymentStrategic support for-Enhanced RPS, Feed-in Tariff-Green New Deal- Enhanced standard of energy saving building
Mar
gina
l Aba
tem
ent C
osts
(Ye
n/kt
CO2)
GHG reduction(ktCO2eq)
AIM/Enduse[Japan]
Example: Passenger transport sector can achieve 80% reduction in energy demand via
suitable land use & improved energy efficiency
Change in passenger transport volume: reduction in total movements due to population decline Change in passenger transport methods: modal shift using public transport system (LRT etc.) Change in passenger transport due to increased urban density ('compact cities'): reduced travel distance due to proximity
of destination Improved energy efficiency: improvements in automobiles & other passenger transport devices (hybrids, lightweight
designs etc.)
Energy efficiency improvement
Land use・Reduction intransport volume
Decline intransport volume
Grid electricity
Ener
gy D
eman
d (M
toe)
2000(Actual figure) 2050(scenario A) 2050(scenario B)
Change in passenger transport volume
Change in passenger transport methods
Change in passenger transport due to increased urban density ('compact cities')
Improved energy efficiency
Hydrogen
Solar energy generation
Biomass
Natural gas
Petroleum oil
Energy demand in 2000
Demographic 2000 Demographic 2050
A MaleB Male
A Female
B Female
-4,000 0 4,0000-4
10-14
20-24
30-34
40-44
50-54
60-64
70-74
80-84
×1,000 people-4,000 0 4,000
0-4
10-14
20-24
30-34
40-44
50-54
60-64
70-74
80-84
Japan as the global front runner of aging societies
Scenario A: Vital SocietyB: Slow Society
1200 million ⇒ <1000 million
19
Land-use planning and transportation strategy depend on local specification
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000人口累積 [万人]
地方
都市
大都市圏都市部
地方
郊外
・郡
部
大都
市圏
郊外
1人あたりCO2 [t/年]
2000年
2050年
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000
人口累積 [万人]
地方
都市
大都市圏都市部 地方
郊外
・郡部
大都
市圏
郊外
1人あたりCO2 [t/年]
2000年
2050年
Cargo Freight
Passenger
Mega cities
Rural
Local cities
population
Per Capita TransportationCO2 Emission
Asian advantage: Still able to design efficient infrastructure to avoid lock-in
Modal share of motorised private mode
50,000 GDP/capita (USD)
Source: IEA (2008)
* Tokyo* Munich
* Paris
* Hong Kong
* NY
* San Francisco
* Rome* Copenhagen
* Los Angeles
* Kuala Lumpur
* Ho Chi Minh City
* Manila
* Beijing
21
Source: Local Development WG team
Before
and
After
2050 vision of compact city and rural life for aged society
22
▶ Mechanism to reward people and companies cooperating in reducing emissions
▶ Making emissions volumes knownSMEs and individuals
Existing low-carbon technologies
Domestic marketGlobal market
Revolutionary low-carbon technologies
2010 2020 2050
Large companies
Reduction of greenhouse emissions
Operation of mechanisms utilizing effective of making known
1990
Appropriate combination of restrictions and support
Thoroughly making known; appearance of effects of existing technologies; period of expansion of the domestic market; period of entrance into the global market
Infrastructure development; appearance of effects of revolutionary technologies; period of expansion into the global market
25% reduction 80% reduction
▶ Spread of low-carbon tech.
▶ Expansion of new industries and markets
Thoroughly making known for all main constituents
Fixed-price FIT
Cap and trade: domestic emissions trading
Carbon Tax
▶ Policy to promote the mass spread of existing technologies
Policies
Effects
▶ Low-carbon infrastructure development/▶ Promotion of research and development▶ Development of human resources and environmental education▶ Vitalization of environmental finance
Resources
Promotion of voluntary efforts
Restrictions by top runners
23
Overall roadmap: policies and effects
24
• As for the investment amount for global warming, half of the overall investment amount will be collected by 2020 and an amount equal to the investment amount will be collected by 2030 based on energy expenses that can be saved through technologies introduced.
<Low-carbon investment amount and energy reduction expense>
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Energy saving investment through
2020
Volume of reduction from energy saving technologies
Energy reduction expense from energy saving investment= approx. 50 trillion yen(25% reduction)
In the case of device with 10 year lifespan
Energy reduction expense from energy saving investment= approx. 49 trillion yen(25% reduction)
-36 -43 -50
-35 -42-49
58 78 96
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
25% reduction
Additional investment(’11 – ’20 total)
Energy reduction expense(’11 – ’20 total)Energy reduction expense(’21 – ’30 total)
Relationship between low-carbon investment and energy reduction expense
20% reduction
15% reduction
Cos
t (T
rillio
n Y
en)
0.3 0.3 0.3 1.0 1.5 2.0 0.6
0.8 1.0
0.5 0.8
1.1
0.6
1.0
1.1
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.3
1.5
0.6
0.7
0.9
0.2
0.4
0.5
5.8
7.8
9.7
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
▲15% ▲20% ▲25%
その他
電力系統
その他新エネ発電
太陽光発電
自動車
業務用建築物・機器
家電製品
家庭用給湯器
住宅
産業
Japan needs to invest on average 6 to 10 trillion yen per annum in additional funds to achieve a ▲15% to ▲25% by 2020. If this spending is not spread across all sectors of society, Japan will face difficulty in implementing the necessary countermeasures to achieve this target. Yet, this also means Japan will need to create new markets on par with this spending.
[Additional Investments Required to Achieve CO2 Reduction Target]
Add
ition
al In
vest
men
t Am
ount
(T
rillio
n Y
en /
Yea
r)
・Japan needs to develop policies that reward consumers who chose and companies that manufacture low-carbon products.・Japan needs to proactively move forward with investments that contribute to green innovation.
Comments from the Roadmap Subcommittee
Need to spend between 6 and 10 trillion yen per annum across all sectors of society
Create Green Markets
Grow Green Markets
15% Reduction
Other
Electric Power SystemsOther New Energy GenerationPV
AutomobilesCommercial Buildings / Equipment
Home ElectronicsResidential Water HeatersHousing
Industrial
20% Reduction
25% Reduction
Huge green business opportunity accompanied by transition to low carbon society
1-2% of GDP
25
Correspondence between the Issues and models
Design target year’s societies by ExSSOne/multi- regional multi-
sectoral analysis Check and analyze quantitative
consistency of future societies
Quantitative design of basic mechanisms by
element models
•Energy enduse models (AIM/enduse)
• Energy supply model (ESM)
• Traffic demand model (TDM)
• Econometric type macro-economy model (EME)
• Population and household model (PHM)
• House and building dynamics model (BDM)
• Material stock dynamics model (MSFM)
• Household production and lifestyle model (HPLM)
• AFOLU model (AFOLU)
Design target year’s social/economic/ energy
vision quantitatively
Major outputs of models are Policy portfolio, GHG emissions inventory, Energy balance table, IO table, Labor/population balance table, Transport demand and supply table, Household account, Macro economic account, Price, etc.
Design social, physical LCD’s details based on
more physically realistic mechanisms
RoadmapEconomic analysis Design of target society
and Reduction potential
Backcasting analysis by BCM/BCT
Design roadmaps towards future
designed societies
LCD visions
and
LCDPolicies
• Economic instruments
• Regulation• Education• Public
investments• etc.
Economic analysis by AIM/CGE
One/multi- regional multi-sectoral CGE analysis
Check and analyze quantitative economical consistency of future
societies
Not all of them are applied. Depending on the situation, some are intensively applied.
26Designing and establishing Cambodian Low Carbon Development Plan
Designing and establishing Cambodian Low Carbon Development Plan 27
Progress up to now Collaborating Research Institutes
China Extending ERI's national study (Low Carbondevelopment, China) with AIM models. Preparingprovincial energy, industrial, and economicdatabase in order to integrate national level andprovincial level scenarios
Energy Research Institute(ERI), NationalDevelopment and Reform Commission
India Constructing Indian national scenarios with"Conventional Mitigation" and "Sustainabledevelopment" which corresponding to global 2 Cscenarios
Indian Institute of Management,Ahmedabad
Thailand Thailand national study using coupled CGE andenduse model and apply ing Thailand NAMA
Thammasat University
Indonesia Indonesia national study using coupledEnergy/enduse model and AFOLU model
Institut Teknologi BandungBogor Agriculture University
Vietnam Preliminary analysis of Vietnam energy related andAFOLU related GHG emission reduction wasfinished
Institute of Strategy and Policy onNatural Resources and Environment(ISPONRE), Institute of Meteorology,Hydrology and Environment, Ministry ofNatural Resources and Environment
Bangladesh Preliminary analysis of Bangladesh LCS withenergy ExSS. Finished
Department of Environment, Bangladesh
Malaysia Extending the reduction plan of the 2nd NationalCommunication with ExSS and AFOLU models
Universiti Teknologi Malaysia
National Studies
National level collaborative studies now going on
28
Brochures introducing national and regional specific LCD studiesCommunication and feedbacks of LCD study to real world
2010/102009/11
on goingon going2011/10
2009/10
2011/03
2008/12
2010/10
2011/09
2007/05 2009/10
2009/11
2009/10
2011/05
Asian Modeling Meeting at Tsukuba on 17-18 September 2009
14th AIM International Workshop on 14-15 February 2009
AIM Training Workshop on 2-14 August 2010
Asian Low Carbon Development Scenario Making and Capacity
Building Activity Since 1991
17th AIM International Workshop,17-19, February 2012
16th AIM International Workshop on 19-21 February 2011
15th AIM International Workshop on 20-22 February 2010
AIM Training Workshop on 27-31 October 2008
AIM Training Workshop on 22-26 October 2007AIM Training Workshop on 16-20 October 2006
1st AIM International Workshop on 1-2 February,1996
Save our common climate
Integrating Asian wisdomThank you for your kind attention!