Post on 04-Jan-2016
description
Amy Snover, PhDClimate Impacts Group
Center for Science in the Earth System
University of Washington
Integrated Integrated AssessmentAssessment
Methods and approachIllustrative examplesFuture directions
What is IA?What is IA?
... an interdisciplinary process of combining, interpreting, and communicating knowledge from diverse scientific disciplines in such a way that the whole cause-effect chain of a problem can be evaluated from a synoptic perspective with two characteristics:
(1)(1) it should have added value compared to a single disciplinary oriented assessment;
(2)(2) it should provide useful information to decision makers.
(Rotmans and Dowlatabadi 1998)
Characteristics of CIG’s IACharacteristics of CIG’s IA
• vertical• spatial• interdisciplinary
• horizontal• temporal• intermural
Requires research and synthesis.
Papers on approaches to integrated assessment: Snover et al. 2003; Gamble et al. 2003; Rhythms of Change – Chs. 2 & 11.
Methods: Integrated Methods: Integrated ResearchResearch
1. Understand the naturalnatural systemsystempredictability, uncertainty
2. Understand the managed systemmanaged system the nature and consequences of human choices and activities
3. Understand the institutional contextinstitutional context of these systems processes, laws, constraints, decision calendars
1-3. Work with regional stakeholdersstakeholders
First vertical, then horizontal assessment
Climate dynamics
Impacts on natural systems
Impacts on human systems
Human response capabilities
Vertical IntegrationVertical Integration
e.g., Miles et al. 2000
Vertical Assessment Vertical Assessment Integrated assessment of climate impacts on the Columbia River basin Miles et al. 2000
Value of climate forecasts for Columbia basin hydropower production Hamlet et al. 2001, Huppert et al. 2001
Implications of climate change for PNW urban water resources Palmer and Hahn 2002
Analyses of the institutional context of regional water resources management and potential use of climate forecasts in management Callahan et al. 1999, Gray 1999
Transboundary Issues in the Columbia River Basin Hamlet 2003
Fisheries Management Applications Mantua and Francis 2003
Climate Change, Carbon, and Forestry Innes et al. 2004
Climate Impacts on PNW Resources Rhythms of Change, Chs. 6-9
Outreach: Sectoral Workshops
ENSO PDO
Streamflow
Snow
Coho
Mote et al. 2003
Horizontal Assessment Horizontal Assessment
• Compare results across sectors
• Synthesize results across region Mote et al. 1999a,b, 2003; Parson et al. 2000; Peterson et al., in prep.; National Assessment; Rhythms of Change (esp. Chs. 10-11); Snover et al. 2003
Potential Impacts of Climate Change
TeachingTeaching
Graduate Education• ATMS 585A/ENVIR 585A/ESS 585A/SMA 585A: Climate
Impacts on the Pacific Northwest• SMA 501: Marine Affairs Practice (Integrated Assessment
applied to marine policy problems)• PBAF 595/ENVIR 500A: The Role of Science in
Environmental Decisions• PBAF 598H: Decision-Making in the Face of Uncertainty:
Practitioner Views on Environmental Resource Management Challenges
• ESC 512A: Consequences of Climate Change and Climate Variability for PNW Forests
• Oregon State University: Global Climate Change Science and Policy
International Workshops on Regional Integrated Climate Impacts Assessment
• Lucca, Italy – September 2002• Grainau, Germany – June/July 2004• Cairns, Australia – 2006
To the FutureTo the Future
Objective: To develop a capability to answer questions from policymakers concerning impacts and policies at the different time/space scales at which climate, natural ecosystems, and human social systems interact.
Strategic Questions:
1. What are the critical interactions among resources (and resource management) that will shape regional impacts of climate variability and change?
2. What are the net impacts of climate variability on the region and what are the likely impacts of climate change, combined with regional trends in population growth and technological development? What are the costs of these impacts?
3. What are the greatest uncertainties in quantifying the effects of climate variability and change on ecosystems and human social systems in the region? Which uncertainties are most crucial for improving predictions and/or resource management?
4. How could cross-sectoral management improve adaptive capacity by exploiting the critical interactions across sectors and resources?
Requires increasing vertical and horizontal integration.
New Directions in Horizontal New Directions in Horizontal IntegrationIntegration
• Physical Template• Integrated
Watershed Analysis
Response to stakeholder demand for watershed level information
Top: Mt. Rainier (Marli Miller, Univ. Oregon)Bottom: Dungeness National Wildlife Refuge (Albert Copley, OK Univ. Archives)
Physical TemplatePhysical Template• GIS-based “picture” of the
PNW
• Method of integrating information about climate impacts with information about the ecological, regulatory, and socioeconomic environments in which they occur
• Tool for visualization, querying, information delivery, and spatial analysis
• Available to CSES (to support internal integration and fine-scale policy analysis) and to stakeholders (to support planning for adaptation)
Physical TemplatePhysical Template
1. Enhance stakeholders’ familiarity with the role of climate in managed resources– Map past and future patterns of PNW hydroclimatic
conditions– Designed in consultation with regional planners &
decision makers
2. Provide targeted interpretive products, e.g.,
– Highlight areas of high/low sensitivity to climate change
– Map hydrologically vulnerable watersheds
Integrated Integrated Watershed Watershed AnalysisAnalysis
Responding to stakeholder demand for information applicable to real-world watershed planning issues.
Mt Baker, WA
Photo: Chris Keane American Geological Institute
Human activities (fishing)
Freshwater habitat (water quality, quantity
& timing)
Estuarine habitat (water quality, mixing
processes)Ocean habitat
Climate change (altered water cycle)
Human activities (resource & land use)
Human activities (aquaculture, development)
Climate change (sea level rise & ocean mixing)
Health & Viability of PNW salmon
Climate change
Integrated Watershed Integrated Watershed AnalysisAnalysis
Forest HydrologyFocus on sediment loading of streams
Salmon LifecycleRelationship between habitats and salmon success
Coastal ManagementEffective institutions for integrated management
Estuarine EcologyClimate impacts on estuarine conditions
OutputsOutputs• Simulation models linking
climate-hydrology-land/water use-forest ecology-water quality-aquatic ecosystems – Explore the impacts of climate
variability, climate change, and human activities on these linked resources
– Identify and evaluate alternative management responses
• Information in support of climate sensitive decisions
• Ultimately … a “virtual NW” simulation model that will allow stakeholders, scientists, and decision makers to explore the impacts of policy choices in the face of climate change and population growth scenarios